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On May 20 2009 22:43 Bockit wrote:
I just feel the suspicion factor of Ace isn't anywhere near as high as you're saying it is. Going through your premises:
Premise 1: I have no issue with this. Essentially it's saying, if Ace / Ver are mafia, we gain lots of information about their voters. As a premise, that's true. How we work from it I think is where we are disagreeing. You are saying we should kill both Ace and Ver. I'm willing to give Ace the benefit of the doubt based on my observations of his behaviour. If we lynch a candidate and they're innocent we get little in terms of information from the votelist (Your red herrings point). I'm at this stage willing to say I think Ace is *more likely* to be innocent than guilty. Enough so that I'd rather not lynch him over Ver tonight.
Premise 2: I think this is irrelevant as I still haven't seen anything to convince me that any of the bgs claimed to anyone. Everyone knows by now the perils of doing so. They'd gain absolutely nothing out of doing so, it makes no sense.
Premise 3: Same as premise 1. I agree with the premise. It only comes into play if they flip red. Again, I'm not sure enough Ace is red to be putting our hit on him at the moment. Give me better arguments than "he had a dodgy voting pattern behind him" (easily a potential red herring), or "he was working with mynock and ver", give me solidish clues (Hardware one I'm not a fan of). If you can give me solid evidence that he is mafia, then sure. Otherwise I'm inclined to disagree on the actions we should take based on this premise.
Premise 4: Yes, this is true, again, if he is red. As you say, a lot of people accept that there is a red in office. Most people are pretty sure it's Ver. Not many are agreeing with you at this stage that it's Ace. Yes it's possible they are both mafia.
Premise 5: This is true. I'm going to run some numbers, this is how I see it.
If we lynch Ace and he is green, we've essentially wasted 1 kp of our total x kp. We traded 1 kp for 1 non-mafia
If we lynch Ace and he flips red, our kp is unchanged. We've successfully traded 1 kp for 1 mafia.
If we don't lynch Ace and he is green, our kp is unchanged.
If we don't lynch Ace and he is red. He pardons someone as he dies on a double lynch and we lose 1 kp of our total x kp (it was pardoned in the only circumstance that a mafia pardoner is ever really going to use his power with a negative effect on the town, double lynch with him included).
To me it looks like we end up even on both ways. It's possible mafia get 1 extra hit on us if when the time a mafia pardoner gets killed in a double lynch of which the other suspect is a mafia, and we need to kill both to knock their kp down a notch. Do you see how obscure this situation is?
There is no need to lynch Ace now. Vote to lynch Ver
The problem with your analysis is that you:
1) Ignore when double lynches are used. Timing is important. You admit this.
2) Somehow assume hitting a red and not hitting a green are equivilant.
3) Ignore the amount of information we gain by being able to verify Ace's side.
I'd also say that you significantly underestimate how suspicious Ace is. I've given my reasons, I understand you feel differently. That's fine. I suggest you read a number of his posts that I've pointed out as inconsistent and review his posting history during the first day. There's quite a bit pointing towards him.
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On May 20 2009 22:18 Mynock wrote:
L, you ignore behaviour almost completely. No, mechanical doesn't work. It's stupid and convoluted. We're not here to lynch half the Town. It's Mafia's job to kill innocents, we must concentrate on killing Mafia. At the same time, we have to minimize collateral damage. There are prime suspects right now, above Ace, and I'd rather not lose Ace just yet.
The solution is so fucking simple: Lynch Ver. If he's innocent, we can Vigi Ace easily (and you don't even have to endure another Pardoner nightmare again, hey!). If he's Mafia, we go after other prime Mafia suspects (like Plexa and co.)
Simple stuff, but requires a bit of logical thinking before. As opposed to convoluted paranoid stuff with no thinking behind it (or rather overthinking certain stuff, completely ignoring other).
As fusion notes, if Ver is innocent or guilty has nearly zero impact on how innocent or guilty we should evaluate Ace's suspicion level.
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On May 21 2009 01:42 Ace wrote:
Good posts by Mynock and Bockit, as the rage post I was about to make has been made by them in a calmer matter. The stupidity of this plan just begs the question of how any sane person can even go for it.
L's plan is really just a "lets get rid of everyone" plan, with me as the top dog just because I might Pardon someone. What L fails to understand is that Ver has shown such mafiaish behavior, and I haven't (even though he keeps making shit up) that it's obvious who needs to die. Once I die (because mafia will surely kill me tonight) you'll lose your Pardons and one of your voices of reason.
Then L has a big fucking flaw in his argument: The vote lists.
What exactly are they going to tell you? If you want to know the reason people voted for me - JUST ASK THEM. If I was to flip red and you looked at my votes what can you possibly determine? That most of the people on there are Mafia? - WRONG. You couldn't because I caught a surge after I made a platform post to get elected, hence you'd be having a very difficult time in knowing if those voters are legit townies who liked the post or mafia majority.
And when I flip green then what? Or how are you going to explain how Ver got his votes when he flips red/traitor? Go ahead, what are you going to do? Telling the town "we'll just look at the voters list" after I'm dead means shit.
Like I said from the very beginning, the one plan that will get us where we need to be: look at the people who did not get elected that ran for Mayor, and look at nemy. In fact even if you want to believe nemy is legit, look at all the people that were involved in the arguments FOR nemy being a legit DT. Don't drop the fucking ball on this one.
First off: You've shown a massive amount of suspicious behavior.
Second: Pardon can ONLY hurt town. A number of people who are currently defending you admitted that in the past. Even you dropped the subject when I completely dismantled your shit over it earlier.
I've already explained how the votelists and mafia being voted into office work. Mafia will not suddenly say "I voted for Ace because he's red like me". We can't ASK people why they voted for you. The standard answer will be
1) Didn't like nemY
2) Liked Ace
ZERO information from that.
Figuring out your side tells us a huge amount about the people who voted for you because there's something they can't contest. If you're red, they can't argue against that. If you're green, they can't argue against that.
Ace, look at the vote list for you. Everyone switched votes besides for one person, and you're telling me that we aren't going to find out fuck all if we kill you.
Let me ask something to everyone here:
What if Ace AND Ver are mafia? What then?
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On May 21 2009 02:07 Ace wrote:
Ok L since your "logic" just begs the question:
Once I'm dead and I flip green what does that tell you? Who looks guilty or innocent by my death?
Answer this please.
Depends on how Ver/x flips as well. What happens if you flip red, ace? What happens to that train of mafia that voteswung you?
Someone's afraid.
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On May 21 2009 02:21 Ace wrote:
1.) I have not shown suspicious behavior. That's just you trying to convince yourself you need a reason to lynch me. Look at how many people have said I haven't even done anything wrong. Keep telling yourself that though.
2.) Pardons can HELP the town. How many times have I already shown you that I've ALWAYS caught the bandwagoned townie and stuck up for them? Plenty. So don't try that bullshit.
3.) YOU GET ZERO INFORMATION FROM MY DEATH
what are you going to do? What "side" do I have? Who can you say I'm working with? Go ahead, answer these questions. No matter what color I flip you find nothing out because there is no one in the entire game I'm associated with. I've said this countless times and you keep ignoring it. Look at my vote list all you want - it all happened after my platform post. Hence, you can't honestly say it's pure townie or majority mafia and you keep ignoring this point.
What if Ace and Ver are Mafia? Holy shit! yes what if we BOTH are Mafia!
Then it made perfect sense to kill the 2 people protecting us from Vigis and draw suspicion on ourselves!
LOL thats just STUPID. L - your getting desperate. Just stop.
1) yes you have. you initially supported ver, switched on a dime the moment day 2 happened. you denied supporting people I've given 100% proof you did. you've ignored a massive amount of information against you. you have a fucking shifty ass voting record behind you. you consistently misrepresent the abilities of the pardoner. you use emotional language instead of providing solid logical argumentation. you readily admit that someone who ran is likely mafia. I can go on.
2)Pardoning cannot help the town. If you want to stop a bandwagoned townie, you need to convince the town of doing so. The only time this can be used effectively is if the townie is confirmed, and I don't see how we can confirm people in this game outside of PM work.
3) I get plenty of information from your death. Believe me. You pretend you aren't associated with anyone? Your supporters and those you supported during day one are fairly good connections, as are the people who voted for you today, and the people defending you today. There's plenty of information to be gained. Its pretty fucking obvious we're getting information from your death. Its also important that we can gain further information by eliminating the threat of a mafia pardon to allow double lynches.
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On May 21 2009 02:22 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 02:20 L wrote:On May 21 2009 02:07 Ace wrote:
Ok L since your "logic" just begs the question:
Once I'm dead and I flip green what does that tell you? Who looks guilty or innocent by my death?
Answer this please. Depends on how Ver/x flips as well. What happens if you flip red, ace? What happens to that train of mafia that voteswung you? Someone's afraid. Yes, because all the Mafia, even though there are only a few them all voted for me enough that they'd be caught that easily. Yes L, your logic is frightening.
I never said all mafia. 1 or 2 would be enough to draw connections to and from.
You know very well that mafia would never go all in like that, but that they would concentrate themselves or start off a bandwagon.
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Let me ask the number of players who are voting and ignoring the thread.
What happens if Ver flips towns?
What happens if both candidates are mafia?
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On May 21 2009 02:37 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 02:31 L wrote:On May 21 2009 02:21 Ace wrote:
1.) I have not shown suspicious behavior. That's just you trying to convince yourself you need a reason to lynch me. Look at how many people have said I haven't even done anything wrong. Keep telling yourself that though.
2.) Pardons can HELP the town. How many times have I already shown you that I've ALWAYS caught the bandwagoned townie and stuck up for them? Plenty. So don't try that bullshit.
3.) YOU GET ZERO INFORMATION FROM MY DEATH
what are you going to do? What "side" do I have? Who can you say I'm working with? Go ahead, answer these questions. No matter what color I flip you find nothing out because there is no one in the entire game I'm associated with. I've said this countless times and you keep ignoring it. Look at my vote list all you want - it all happened after my platform post. Hence, you can't honestly say it's pure townie or majority mafia and you keep ignoring this point.
What if Ace and Ver are Mafia? Holy shit! yes what if we BOTH are Mafia!
Then it made perfect sense to kill the 2 people protecting us from Vigis and draw suspicion on ourselves!
LOL thats just STUPID. L - your getting desperate. Just stop. 1) yes you have. you initially supported ver, switched on a dime the moment day 2 happened. you denied supporting people I've given 100% proof you did. you've ignored a massive amount of information against you. you have a fucking shifty ass voting record behind you. you consistently misrepresent the abilities of the pardoner. you use emotional language instead of providing solid logical argumentation. you readily admit that someone who ran is likely mafia. I can go on. 2)Pardoning cannot help the town. If you want to stop a bandwagoned townie, you need to convince the town of doing so. The only time this can be used effectively is if the townie is confirmed, and I don't see how we can confirm people in this game outside of PM work. 3) I get plenty of information from your death. Believe me. You pretend you aren't associated with anyone? Your supporters and those you supported during day one are fairly good connections, as are the people who voted for you today, and the people defending you today. There's plenty of information to be gained. Its pretty fucking obvious we're getting information from your death. Its also important that we can gain further information by eliminating the threat of a mafia pardon to allow double lynches. 1.) DUH! Both of the bodyguards die that protect myself and him, Ver lynches a guy who he never brought up to me in PM and then stops posting? He makes some jackass post about trying to trick me - No shit why wouldn't I suspect him? How is that suspicious? *puts dunce cap on L* 2.) Pardoning can't help the town? Are you retarded? How many times have I shown that I've ALWAYS got the right guy pinned. Go ahead and try and deny it. Every single time I've stuck up for someone they flipped Town right? Right. So if you guys are about to lynch him and I pardon him then obviously I did my job right. The evidence is there and your just bullshitting. Your last sentence is even more laughable - they can only be confirmed outside of PM work...really? So all those times I knew those guys were innocent I went to Little Tokyo and paid some guy to read my fortune? Genius. 3.) No you don't because you can't answer this simple question - WHO is associated with me? Saying your going to look at who voted for me is hogwash. Who are my supporters? list them. What are there connections to me? List those too. how about we eliminate you because hey - you just might be mafia too! In fact I hope you do get vigi'd tonight just so I can be like well...we gained a lot of information from his death.
1. Don't ignore everything else, good sir. Throwing up an either/or red herring is standard. Both of you would be in on it so the plausibility of the situation is irrelevant if you're both mafia.
2. How many times have you played mafia and abused the fact that you were respected by the town? Why should this rest on the fact that people need to ASSUME you're innocent? All of this assumes you're innocent. My plan DOES NOT REQUIRE THAT ASSUMPTION. My plan provides maximum effect EXCEPT in the case that you/ver flip double innocent. No one agrees that's possible.
3. Who?
Musketeers (Ver Mynock) and people you've supported (Tricode, etc)
The entire votelist for you (0cz3c <-- from Ver
Ver <-- from Caller
Malongo <-- from Fishball
mikeymoo <-- from Mynock
MrBabyHands
HeavOnEarth <-- from Abstain
Scamp <-- from nemY
Bockit <-- from Mynock
Mynock < -- from Ver
Ver <-- from Showtime!
Tricode <-- from Mynock)
Bolded extra suspicion due to overlap. Depending on how Ver's flip comes up, these would be analyzed differently. Mafia wouldn't have had the impetus to seed a bangwagon on you if they had ver going, for instance, but they would have had the impetus to voteswing you. If you and Ver are red, tricode is likely red as well. If Ver is green and you are red, Malongo MBH and HeavOnEarth become more suspicious.
The people who have defended you.
Caller, Mynock etc. These will be cross referenced with the Ver list depending on how he turns. Caller, for instance, on a double red, would look red as well. Cobbler would look very red too.
But that's all preliminary because I'm going to go back to all of the old posts and review them in depth and I'll invite everyone to do so with me while we have a few people clue checking. We're also going to have another 3 mafia clues to examine, another hitlist to look at and all of the content posted in-thread until then.
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And why do people think i'm rage?
O_o I'm being very civil in the face of douchebaggery.
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On May 21 2009 02:53 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 02:37 L wrote:
Let me ask the number of players who are voting and ignoring the thread.
What happens if Ver flips towns?
What happens if both candidates are mafia? If Ver flips town then FUCK. Its the risk we take EVERY TIME we lynch someone. We have to work with what we got, if nothing else it limits who the vision/sight clues can link to. If Ver flips innocent and we believe for SURE that one offical HAS to be a mafia (for whatever fucking reason) we can request that the Vigi hits him. Even if it causes chaos with no officials. I understand Ver is busy, maybe its just an excuse or maybe its not. Why would he sign up for mafia if he has SUCH important exams coming up? I thought all of us were basically out of school now. But whatever, maybe its legit. In fact it most likely is. But his posts still have not been THAT constructive. Hes not really doing much.
1. Don't depend on Vig to be reading the thread. Do it yourself if you can.
2. And if they're both mafia?
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On May 21 2009 02:51 Mynock wrote:L, you honestly think there's some kind of underground network you're going to flush out once Ace is dead? Just so you know, this is all the information you get from our PMs with Ace this round: Show nested quote +From: Ace
Subject: Re: Hey
Date: 5/18/09 00:19
paranoid towny, or mafia trying to change his style. Either way I'm slightly ignoring his posts at the moment.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
What do u think about L? Let's see how you can process the ridiculous amount of data in all that.
Lol, compare that to my pms:
To: Bockit
Subject: Re: If it makes a difference
Date: 5/20/09 13:34
Ok.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I too feel that the argument between Ace and Ver back during the election was terribly contrived.
I do want to see Ace killed tonight (as in, before I agreed to your plan in the thread), part of the reasoning behind my posts in the thread was that I wanted to see how Ace responded to my defense of him, and your accusation. He just sat back, which to me indicates more that he's mafia, as they are usually willing to let Town do their work for them (in this case me arguing for him). I'm pretty confident now I've agreed to the plan you're proposing, we're going to see Ace come rocking into the thread "What the fuck is wrong with the town" etc.
If he does, I'm going to post this pm btw.
And its not really an underground network. Voting in mafia to office always uses the same pattern. Go look at previous games. No, seriously, this is Mynock homework. Want to do some good for the town? Go label the voting order for every mafia voter in each mafia office attempt. See if you find a pattern. I know what it is and have posted it. Go see if i'm full of shit.
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On May 21 2009 02:58 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 02:51 L wrote:On May 21 2009 02:37 Ace wrote:On May 21 2009 02:31 L wrote:On May 21 2009 02:21 Ace wrote:
1.) I have not shown suspicious behavior. That's just you trying to convince yourself you need a reason to lynch me. Look at how many people have said I haven't even done anything wrong. Keep telling yourself that though.
2.) Pardons can HELP the town. How many times have I already shown you that I've ALWAYS caught the bandwagoned townie and stuck up for them? Plenty. So don't try that bullshit.
3.) YOU GET ZERO INFORMATION FROM MY DEATH
what are you going to do? What "side" do I have? Who can you say I'm working with? Go ahead, answer these questions. No matter what color I flip you find nothing out because there is no one in the entire game I'm associated with. I've said this countless times and you keep ignoring it. Look at my vote list all you want - it all happened after my platform post. Hence, you can't honestly say it's pure townie or majority mafia and you keep ignoring this point.
What if Ace and Ver are Mafia? Holy shit! yes what if we BOTH are Mafia!
Then it made perfect sense to kill the 2 people protecting us from Vigis and draw suspicion on ourselves!
LOL thats just STUPID. L - your getting desperate. Just stop. 1) yes you have. you initially supported ver, switched on a dime the moment day 2 happened. you denied supporting people I've given 100% proof you did. you've ignored a massive amount of information against you. you have a fucking shifty ass voting record behind you. you consistently misrepresent the abilities of the pardoner. you use emotional language instead of providing solid logical argumentation. you readily admit that someone who ran is likely mafia. I can go on. 2)Pardoning cannot help the town. If you want to stop a bandwagoned townie, you need to convince the town of doing so. The only time this can be used effectively is if the townie is confirmed, and I don't see how we can confirm people in this game outside of PM work. 3) I get plenty of information from your death. Believe me. You pretend you aren't associated with anyone? Your supporters and those you supported during day one are fairly good connections, as are the people who voted for you today, and the people defending you today. There's plenty of information to be gained. Its pretty fucking obvious we're getting information from your death. Its also important that we can gain further information by eliminating the threat of a mafia pardon to allow double lynches. 1.) DUH! Both of the bodyguards die that protect myself and him, Ver lynches a guy who he never brought up to me in PM and then stops posting? He makes some jackass post about trying to trick me - No shit why wouldn't I suspect him? How is that suspicious? *puts dunce cap on L* 2.) Pardoning can't help the town? Are you retarded? How many times have I shown that I've ALWAYS got the right guy pinned. Go ahead and try and deny it. Every single time I've stuck up for someone they flipped Town right? Right. So if you guys are about to lynch him and I pardon him then obviously I did my job right. The evidence is there and your just bullshitting. Your last sentence is even more laughable - they can only be confirmed outside of PM work...really? So all those times I knew those guys were innocent I went to Little Tokyo and paid some guy to read my fortune? Genius. 3.) No you don't because you can't answer this simple question - WHO is associated with me? Saying your going to look at who voted for me is hogwash. Who are my supporters? list them. What are there connections to me? List those too. how about we eliminate you because hey - you just might be mafia too! In fact I hope you do get vigi'd tonight just so I can be like well...we gained a lot of information from his death. 1. Don't ignore everything else, good sir. Throwing up an either/or red herring is standard. Both of you would be in on it so the plausibility of the situation is irrelevant if you're both mafia. 2. How many times have you played mafia and abused the fact that you were respected by the town? Why should this rest on the fact that people need to ASSUME you're innocent? All of this assumes you're innocent. My plan DOES NOT REQUIRE THAT ASSUMPTION. My plan provides maximum effect EXCEPT in the case that you/ver flip double innocent. No one agrees that's possible. 3. Who? Musketeers (Ver Mynock) and people you've supported (Tricode, etc) The entire votelist for you (0cz3c <-- from Ver Ver <-- from Caller Malongo <-- from Fishball mikeymoo <-- from Mynock MrBabyHandsHeavOnEarth <-- from Abstain Scamp <-- from nemY Bockit <-- from Mynock Mynock < -- from Ver Ver <-- from Showtime! Tricode <-- from Mynock) Bolded extra suspicion due to overlap. Depending on how Ver's flip comes up, these would be analyzed differently. Mafia wouldn't have had the impetus to seed a bangwagon on you if they had ver going, for instance, but they would have had the impetus to voteswing you. If you and Ver are red, tricode is likely red as well. If Ver is green and you are red, Malongo MBH and HeavOnEarth become more suspicious. The people who have defended you. Caller, Mynock etc. These will be cross referenced with the Ver list depending on how he turns. Caller, for instance, on a double red, would look red as well. Cobbler would look very red too. But that's all preliminary because I'm going to go back to all of the old posts and review them in depth and I'll invite everyone to do so with me while we have a few people clue checking. We're also going to have another 3 mafia clues to examine, another hitlist to look at and all of the content posted in-thread until then. LOL. What the fuck? So your plan is just kill everyone who I've even remotely been nice to or complimented - absolutely brilliant. I've supported Tricode?! - LOL! Sure L, sure I have. You still haven't answered my questions even remotely well. It still stands - if both Ver and I were red why would we kill both of the bodyguards? You're about to kill off a lot of innocents and waste double lynches and NOT play it safe - the very thing you accused me of doing. You're playing like shit - stop your nonsense.
No, its to look at people who fit the model of someone attempting to push mafia into office, and they'd be looked at if you were mafia.
Are you saying you WOULDN'T examine the voting order and people who defended you if you flipped red?
It still stands - if both Ver and I were red why would we kill both of the bodyguards? Already answered. All 3 scenarios explained too. 2x roleclaim 1 luck 1 roleclaim 2x luck.
For someone playing like shit, I've answered a lot of the questions you keep bringing up in the past. Why is it that you don't recall the answers? Maybe you should read a bit before throwing out accusations
: ).
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On May 21 2009 03:00 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 02:59 L wrote:On May 21 2009 02:51 Mynock wrote:L, you honestly think there's some kind of underground network you're going to flush out once Ace is dead? Just so you know, this is all the information you get from our PMs with Ace this round: From: Ace
Subject: Re: Hey
Date: 5/18/09 00:19
paranoid towny, or mafia trying to change his style. Either way I'm slightly ignoring his posts at the moment.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
What do u think about L? Let's see how you can process the ridiculous amount of data in all that. Lol, compare that to my pms: To: Bockit
Subject: Re: If it makes a difference
Date: 5/20/09 13:34
Ok.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I too feel that the argument between Ace and Ver back during the election was terribly contrived.
I do want to see Ace killed tonight (as in, before I agreed to your plan in the thread), part of the reasoning behind my posts in the thread was that I wanted to see how Ace responded to my defense of him, and your accusation. He just sat back, which to me indicates more that he's mafia, as they are usually willing to let Town do their work for them (in this case me arguing for him). I'm pretty confident now I've agreed to the plan you're proposing, we're going to see Ace come rocking into the thread "What the fuck is wrong with the town" etc.
If he does, I'm going to post this pm btw. And its not really an underground network. Voting in mafia to office always uses the same pattern. Go look at previous games. No, seriously, this is Mynock homework. Want to do some good for the town? Go label the voting order for every mafia voter in each mafia office attempt. See if you find a pattern. I know what it is and have posted it. Go see if i'm full of shit. Oh shit I have the same PM L! Guess that means your part of the underground Mafia network too now!
Hi 5 bro.
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On May 21 2009 03:00 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 02:59 L wrote:On May 21 2009 02:51 Mynock wrote:L, you honestly think there's some kind of underground network you're going to flush out once Ace is dead? Just so you know, this is all the information you get from our PMs with Ace this round: From: Ace
Subject: Re: Hey
Date: 5/18/09 00:19
paranoid towny, or mafia trying to change his style. Either way I'm slightly ignoring his posts at the moment.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
What do u think about L? Let's see how you can process the ridiculous amount of data in all that. Lol, compare that to my pms: To: Bockit
Subject: Re: If it makes a difference
Date: 5/20/09 13:34
Ok.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I too feel that the argument between Ace and Ver back during the election was terribly contrived.
I do want to see Ace killed tonight (as in, before I agreed to your plan in the thread), part of the reasoning behind my posts in the thread was that I wanted to see how Ace responded to my defense of him, and your accusation. He just sat back, which to me indicates more that he's mafia, as they are usually willing to let Town do their work for them (in this case me arguing for him). I'm pretty confident now I've agreed to the plan you're proposing, we're going to see Ace come rocking into the thread "What the fuck is wrong with the town" etc.
If he does, I'm going to post this pm btw. And its not really an underground network. Voting in mafia to office always uses the same pattern. Go look at previous games. No, seriously, this is Mynock homework. Want to do some good for the town? Go label the voting order for every mafia voter in each mafia office attempt. See if you find a pattern. I know what it is and have posted it. Go see if i'm full of shit. done
I don't see Mynock's homework on the table.
Town would benefit from looking at the pattern of past mafia voting in office elections. I dont' see how you can try to be offensive about this.
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On May 21 2009 03:05 Ace wrote:
Because those aren't answers your giving L - you keep giving us made up scenarios. Answer the questions with some logic and stop playing like shit.
Ver and I are both Mafia, hence we'd want to make ourselves vulnerable to vigis just so we could pull an amazing trick on the town? Incredible!
And why would I examine the voting order of the people who voted for myself or Ver when it's even BETTER if I stick to my original plan and look at the candidates who lost the election. It's a smaller sample of players and we've already concluded that it's likely one of the people that ran for Mayor/Pardoner is Mafia. Stop trying to divert the town from that path.
Vigi - kill L tonight.
Lol. Go read the post. I gave you every possible outcome of how they ended up killing the bodyguards and why they could do it. Why would you suspect Ver of killing both BGs if the above applies? Clearly there must have been some amazing trick to putting himself in danger regardless of your innocence or not, right?
And I'm not the one trying to divert the town from that path. I'm the one trying to get the best possible result from that assured 1 of 2 situation.
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That is the 1 luck 1 claim scenario. The scenario which looks safest from mafia's point of view pre-hit.
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On May 21 2009 03:32 Mynock wrote:
Wondering why Ver doesn't post? He doesn't need to. Not as long as he has YOU, L.
Everything is in perfect order for him. He knows he's busted, but hey, the Town won't lynch him anyway, they have L! "He'll make sure Town wastes this lynch, so why the fuck should we even be involved, right?"
Ver will come in towards the very end, put his votes on Ace, and that's that. And the other Mafiosi? By that time they'll be all around on random targets, or on Ver himself.
If Ver's votes suddenly get a surge, he'll come in sooner. He'll make a long post shifting the blame to all kinds of people, and we might see some of those who voted away from Ace, suddenly return, "convinced" by Ver's post.
This is why voting Ver makes the most sense. Whoever doesn't want to lynch Ver now, is suspicious, if the Ver votes gain momentum, whoever tries to turn the tide is suspicious.
Remember tho, Ver still hasn't even played his 2 votes yet! That without even making his soon-to-come post about why Ace such a juicier target, bound to convince some gullible Townies.
Do you realize just how deep his rake is up your asses yet?
I'm cool with having ver vig hit the first night. Where's the delay here? Regardless of what we do, we can't knock down KP with a single kill. the double lynch happens essentially during the same kp cycle as our vig hit, so why depend on the vig? O_o.
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On May 21 2009 03:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
wait, did you just call me mafia?
lolwtf? It also opens the option of why if a mafia is in office they would kill 2 BGs. It was an accident. Only purposely hit one. If mafia know BGs and have someone in office they sometimes do that because it gives them the ability to just quick kill the other BG later in the game and then get the other elected official.
Uh, no i didn't?
I agree with your analysis: I was pointing to the fact that I did a similar analysis earlier and called it 1 luck 1 roleclaim, and that it was a very safe play by mafia because they didn't know they would hit both BGs, like you're saying.
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On May 21 2009 03:46 Mynock wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 03:42 L wrote:On May 21 2009 03:32 Mynock wrote:
Wondering why Ver doesn't post? He doesn't need to. Not as long as he has YOU, L.
Everything is in perfect order for him. He knows he's busted, but hey, the Town won't lynch him anyway, they have L! "He'll make sure Town wastes this lynch, so why the fuck should we even be involved, right?"
Ver will come in towards the very end, put his votes on Ace, and that's that. And the other Mafiosi? By that time they'll be all around on random targets, or on Ver himself.
If Ver's votes suddenly get a surge, he'll come in sooner. He'll make a long post shifting the blame to all kinds of people, and we might see some of those who voted away from Ace, suddenly return, "convinced" by Ver's post.
This is why voting Ver makes the most sense. Whoever doesn't want to lynch Ver now, is suspicious, if the Ver votes gain momentum, whoever tries to turn the tide is suspicious.
Remember tho, Ver still hasn't even played his 2 votes yet! That without even making his soon-to-come post about why Ace such a juicier target, bound to convince some gullible Townies.
Do you realize just how deep his rake is up your asses yet? I'm cool with having ver vig hit the first night. Where's the delay here? Regardless of what we do, we can't knock down KP with a single kill. the double lynch happens essentially during the same kp cycle as our vig hit, so why depend on the vig? O_o. Apparently you don't understand what I'm saying here. Ver doesn't come because everything goes to plan? Why? Cause we're about to lynch an innocent. He knows he's out, but why would he be involved here? No need. The Town is making a mistake as it is now, and he needs not to intervene. Stop with your endless accusations of Ace, you'll see how Ver jumps back here in an instant.
Or if they're both mafia, Ver's absence draws suspicion to him and pulls it away from Ace. Again, if they're both mafia, they're setting up an Either/Or scenario in order to make Ver's death lend credibility to mafia Ace.
Mynock. What happens if they're both mafia? What happens if ver flips town? Both situations we get FUCKED. In my plan we only get fucked if there's a double innocent lynch. An innocent Ace death would at least provide security for the following double lynch + information on his voting list. It is the best possible situation in which to take out someone suspicious.
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On May 21 2009 05:24 HeavOnEarth wrote:Seconded. Just a side note that L did the exact same thing as mafia last game. it was quite hilarious how he never got caught though XD
The way I played last game and the way I played this game are obviously MASSIVELY different. I was/am the highest posting volume player in the game. I came out very strong during day 1. Both are something I haven't done previously.
Making a strong argument is the only thing I've done which fits with previous play.
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EPT
