EPTWhat if Ace and Ver are both mafia?
Everyone seems to have ignored that.
Mafia VIII [GG] - Page 10
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What if Ace and Ver are both mafia? Everyone seems to have ignored that. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:15 MTF wrote: Then that will become apparent with time and we can still win, even though Ace would be able to Pardon a single fellow Mafia member. As is, there isn't sufficient proof for me (or for the majority of people, it seems) to go along with this "safest route" plan. How? Ace would be the least scrutinizable individual in the game: he's got a group of followers that have consistently defended him since day 1, cannot be rolechecked, and cannot even be looked at during a double lynch. This is the equivalent of the argument we made for Qatol earlier: "Well, its cool, we'll just kill him a turn later if we find out something's fishy" in the face of a mountain of evidence against him. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:17 Bockit wrote: Nobody has discounted the possibility.. I just don't think it likely atm. I'd like to take this opportunity to ask people to make the swap to Ver. At this stage it's Ace 7 - 11 Ver, ver's vote counts for 3, making it 10 - 11. All that has to happen at that point is for a mafia voting for ver to swap to Ace, or a couple of the mafia abstaining/not voting/voting for others to 'finally decide to go to Ace' after a massive post from ver that will tip the lynch vote. Don't let mafia control the day 2 lynch! No, pretty much everyone has discounted it. Examine who would be defending who in this thread based on the voting pattern if both members are mafia: Early bandwagon on Ver along with a straggler switch onto Ace. Odd coincidence that many of those players are the ones pushing so heavily for a Ver lynch and discounting that Ace is likely mafia? Everything fits in that situation. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:20 Bockit wrote: You do realise that every day he lives, if he is mafia, there will be clues building up against him? You realize that the longer we delay killing him, the less we're able to use our double lynch because of his pseudo veto over it and that killing quickly gives us more days for clues to build up, right? What's more, compare him to any other player: We can't R/C him. People bandwagon behind his statements, etc. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:21 Bockit wrote: I mean, you've already found 1 clue, I don't know if I agree with it yet, but if it pops up as a continuous theme then yes, I might have to re-evaluate. Again, nobody is discounting the possibility. Can you please drop the safest route plan, swap your vote to Ver so there is less chance of them controlling the vote? You have to see this is bad. I see mafia trying to save one of their members in office as bad. I see not being able to examine how mafia voted people into office day 1 as bad. Why would I swap my vote to Ver if the entire point of killing ace tonight is so that I can have a double called against him the next day if the vig doesn't snipe him tonight. No matter if Ace or Ver are both innocent or both guilty, we can't drop KP with a successful kill, so it doesn't really matter townwise if Ver dies right now, to vig tonight, or to double tomorrow. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:25 Bockit wrote: Holding back the double lynches because you are afraid that he might pardon them is stupid and I really hope that doesn't end up happening. No, it just removes our ability to hit Ace during the double lynches, which makes him invulnerable until Day 5 if we do 2 back to back. Do you understand why I'm not super peachy keen on waiting for 'clues' to build up if he's already got a bunch of suspicion on him? He's a fantastic tool to push town down the wrong paths. Its not 'oh we'll kill Ace if he's suspicious', because we simply can't kill him during a double. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:30 MTF wrote: You don't need a role check to identify him with time (you can't fake away clues even if you can fake behavior) and I'm quite sure that if those defending him were not Mafia, they would stop doing so in the face of clear evidence. If not, then you were right. You're either making the assumption that there is a mountain of evidence against Ace right now that nobody is seeing except you or that there will be a mountain of evidence later with which town will do nothing with. I'm guessing the former. I don't think there's really anything constructive to say if either option is correct, though. I didn't say we needed a role check. I said he's the least scrutinizable player in the game. Is that correct or not? No rolecheck. Large bandwagon behind him. Cannot vote for him until day 5 or vig hit if we do back to back double lynches. Consistently contradictory posts. Has supported mafia players in the past. The target of a massive voteswing. I mean, 2+2. There's evidence. | ||
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On May 17 2009 08:01 Qatol wrote: The pardoner CAN still use his ability to pardon someone who is being lynched alongside himself. He has to use his ability before the night post by definition. Therefore, he is still alive when he can send in his role and can thus pardon when he is about to be lynched. An analogous use would be a vigilante using his hit when he is also taking a hit from the mafia. Both actions go through. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:36 Ace wrote: What Mafia players have I supported in the past? Obvious one? Your buddy running mate Ver. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:39 Bockit wrote: @showtime! Ver's already implied what his defense is going to be in his previous post. It's going to be something along the lines of 'You all sucked, so I ignored you, and the thread', 'I'm really disappointed', 'I was too busy to try and correct misconceptions'. If that sits with you as a legitimate defense then by all means, wait. If it doesn't, I'd recommend voting for him now. It was Ace's defense last game. I agree its a bullshit defense, but it was actually valid in the most recent example of it being used. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:40 MTF wrote: First, the so-called large bandwagon behind him is pretty small to the very consistent core that voted Ver in and people can defend Ace without being die-hard about it. Like me, right now. Second, the "cannot vote for him" bit is incorrect, unless you assume that we can't vote for him because he'd pardon whoever the other person was. Which is incorrect. I haven't seen that many contradictory posts and I'm not sure what you mean by his having supported mafia players in the past, unless you somehow have them figured out already. Finally, the massive voteswing you're talking about happened because of the Nemy situation. Nemy was close to being pushed into a position and many players did not like that, so there was a movement to vote in either Mynock or Ace in behind Ver. Ace ended up being the one that got the votes. MTF, we already 100% agreed that if Ace is mafia and he's going down, its always in his best interest to pardon the other player, mafia or not. If both Ver and Ace are mafia, your analysis of the 'large bandwagon' is consistent with what most mafia players would do in the current situation. Drop Ver, switch to Ace. And regardless of the nemY situation, if Ace flips red, the voteswing is a voteswing. THIS IS WHY WE NEED TO BE ABLE TO TELL WHICH SIDE HE'S ON. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:41 Ace wrote: You mean the Day before the bodyguards were killed right? Right. Because after they died + the shifty PM I instantly said I think he's fishy. Thanks for the fail. Now what other Mafia players have I supported? Pretty sure by all analysis of the bodyguards dying performed to this point towards you and Ver equally. The main cause of suspicion on Ver is simple inactivity. Guess what, I was calling him fishy before day 1 even ended, : ). | ||
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When incriminated by versatile you threw up your hands said the town was stupid and won a titay. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:49 Ace wrote: IF I'm Mafia - which while is a solid idea you keep ignoring the fact that very few people think I am. Your plan relies on the fact that I'd be confirmed Mafia by now which is not the case and you keep trying to ACT like I am. Which brings us to problem #2 - Ver and I are Mafia - which is impossible at this point. If both of us were Mafia you'd be ignoring a VERY glaring problem - we would never kill off both Bodyguards if that were the case. And since you are relying on #2 to prove #1 as the point for me being Mafia and going along with your plan - it fails. This is what we've been telling you for ages but you come up with new ideas in your head to justify a failed plan. This is probably the THIRD time I repeat this. My plan does not REQUIRE that you're mafia to pay off. It does, however, pay off even in the event that you are. NONE of the other suggestions, including lynching ver today over you, do. If both of you were mafia, there are a number of scenarios which would lead to both BGs dying. I believe Incog summarized my thinking on the matter like 2 pages ago in a completely seperate analysis. Since #1 isn't an assumption I make and #2 doesn't prove what you want it to, you have no rational argument against my position. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:51 Ace wrote: because you'd have to pretty stupid to believe someone who's about to die as their last line" I know Ace's playing style - he's Mafia lynch him!" and when she flips innocent you assume she knows what she was talking about even though she barely paid attention to the game. I win. You know very stupid players are in both games, waiting to be led around by the nose. That would be exactly why you died. Not like Caller's NOT in this game, or the quality of players towers above him on average. That said, the "i know his style, lol, i am right" argument was your initial gloss for Ver. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:56 MTF wrote: I agree with everything in the first two sentences. The problem is they are complete "what if" situations to you. For the third, however...Help me understand this. Assume that you are right, and Ace is Mafia. Why would Mafia not have voted him in sooner or secured him a strong spot in the election earlier on, so as to avoid the very suspicion you are putting on him? Was Nemy just a convenient cover for a sudden five-six votes to switch over to him? And assuming further that both are mafia: Was the plan just to get Ver in first and then the Nemy situation happened, so they figured, hell, why not try to get both of them in? Or was Nemy an intentional part of it? See the problem I have with your scenario? Why would Mafia not have voted him in sooner? Because mafia already HAD him in prior to nemY. Ver had a commanding lead, showtime had like 3 votes and Ace was sitting above that. No point stacking people on, might as well sprinkle mafia on other targets to lay low. When nemY happened, mafia didn't 'want' to have to voteswing Ace in, but nemY's candidacy forced some people to switch to him. Obviously you examine each voter independantly, but there are a number of late Ace voters that are fishy. Tricode, for instance, has been either been playing consistently stupid (and given last game I sadly concede that he's potentially that stupid without ulterior motives. So what do I do regarding a player like tricode? How do I crack his motivations? Well, I need date from Ace to complete the picture. Basically you're saying "mafia could have done many things" which is true. What doesn't change, however, is that mafia will push their members into office given a chance, and during this election there was clearly an opportunity go go x2 office, which is why I think we should prepare for that possibility. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:01 MTF wrote: The point is, L, that you are really the only person who strongly feels Ace is Mafia and wasting a vote on him today does not feel worth it. Additionally, some may feel as I do about the voting pattern in that it is irrelevant for the moment who voted for Ace near the end of the last election, due to the Nemy situation. It only becomes relevant if more evidence builds up against Ace or, tenuously, if Nemy turns up red. I am not the only one who suspects Ace. By a longshot. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:09 MTF wrote: O, and seeing as you're looking for voting stuff, look at the current situation: Ver's Mayoral Voter List: BloodyC0bbler Caller Scaramanga Mynock 0cz3c dreamflower RebirthOfLeGenD Vivi57 iNfuNdiBuLuM Incognito <-- from Showtime Malongo <-- from Ace LucasWoJ Ace Current Lynching List: L nemY dreamflower Amber[Light] Bockit <-- from Ver Plexa BloodyC0bbler <-- from Plexa Scaramanga <-- from Ver Italics are overlapped. Dreamflower has only ever posted in the thread to defend herself and Scaramanga has been even more inactive, yet they both voted in Ver and are both gunning for Ace. If Ver is Mafia and some of those who voted for him also are, and now they want to switch over to Ace, they're doing a pretty poor job of it right now. This type of information becomes crystal clear when we find out who is who  . That's exactly why I want to blow away the confusion. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:13 Bockit wrote: It's pretty crystal clear simply if Ver flips red, who we all suspect anyway. That information doesn't require Ace to be flipped. Not really, that's the problem. If we only get information on Ver there's plenty of room for valid actions coming from both town and mafia with respect to both of the voting lists. WE NEED THE INFORMATION. Also, Ver, I really don't care if you're innocent. I need your information. I'm not going to stop asking that you get Vig after we kill Ace, or get doubled after we kill Ace. | ||
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