On March 23 2009 17:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Preamble: I came to this conclusion shortly after the Day 2 post but waited until night to unleash it to collect more behavioral information. Since it's night I better post it now in case I die. I was going to wait until the last few hours of night to post it but I've got a lot to do in the morning and I might forget.
aZnvaLiaNce is really suspicious.
I went through all the profiles with the Day 2 clues in mind and found nothing that really caught my attention except Rice's, which redtooth explained pretty well.
But, I found something that matched up pretty damn well to something in Day 1 (a lot better than Pika Chu, lol):
From Day 1:
"Over at City Hall Incognito just realized something the mafia might have missed. He began sifting through the rubble thinking he could score something to help catch the mafia. What he didn't know was one stayed back to make sure he was dead. He was shoved forward while hunched over pulling some concrete away and smashed his head into a large chunk of debris. He turned himself around to face the man and knew that whatever could be found was lost. With one shot to the head Incognito's life was ended."
From aZnvaLiaNce's profile:
"How can there be any meaning in the memory of such a being? What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion."
On Day 1, Incognito has a memory of something about the mafia - he isn't able to find it and it may have been an illusory memory planted to lure him back to the scene of the crime.
"Whoever wins, the battle does not end. The loser is set free from the battlefield, while the winner must remain there. And the survivor will live out his life as the warrior until the day he dies."
The battlefield of Day 1 is City Hall, which is destroyed in a victory for the mafia. Incognito is a loser in that he failed to prevent this, yet he escapes to freedom from City Hall while one victorious mafia stays behind. Incognito is then lured back by a fruitless memory and killed by the warrior that stayed.
Looking back, this seems like the most clue-worthy passage; several players commented on this. Some people thought maybe it tied to lurker (which I thought might be true). I'm sure whichever mafia was tied to this passage would want to take a real low profile.
So, what has aZnvaLiaNce's activity looked like so far this game:
After the day post on page 7, aZnvaLiaNce's first post
WASN'T UNTIL PAGE 42. And did he apologize for being so inactive or give some kind of excuse? No, he used his first post to try to link someone to a clue. (Contrast with Centric who's first post is on page 53). This correlates with someone who is lurking the forums without contributing because they don't have an incentive to do so. They are up to date on everything that has happened between page 7 and page 43 and therefore tend not to notice it has been a long time since they've posted.
Also of note: aZnvaLiaNce did not vote and did not post after the day post despite posting multiple times before the day post (behavior matching RebirthofLegend's). He didn't post even after candidates said they would kill inactives, just like rebirthoflegend (though the election may have ended before he may have seen this, don't forget that rebirthoflegend was shown to have done some posts on the site elsewhere while being inactive in the game).
Here's aZnvaLiaNce's first post of the game:
"Hmmm......clues in Camlito's death.....the white flower, torn ticket stubs, popcorn and it even said he picked them up as trash off the floor. This sounds like a bum or hobo....either it's too obvious as a clue or I'm on to something"
It seems pretty clear he's trying to implicate bumatlarge - why doesn't he just say it? It's like he's trying to lead the town a certain way but wants someone else to be the first to mention bumatlarge by name so the accusation doesn't get traced back to him. Why would a bum collect ticket stubs or flowers anyway? I could see food but it doesn't seem as obvious or as likely as his wording is geared to try to make it seem. This mafia is a theater worker so it makes sense that ticket stubs and popcorn would be in his pocket. It is the dried up white flower that sticks out, IMO. Why is it white? Dried? There are several profiles referencing flowers.
From Zapling's profile: "Don't believe the florist when he tells you that the roses are free"
From dreamflower's profile:
http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/41975.jpg(He pre-emptively thanked everyone for not bringing up this picture since his flower is blue, apparently missing the white flowers behind the blue one)
From Phrujbaz's post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/40422.jpgAlso could be a packrat or cleaning / trash / janitor reference although all I came up with for that is someone with a mice and men reference which is nowhere near packrat.
MrBabyHands gave the same bum idea a post or two later and I'm not too suspicious of him so maybe it's not that weird.
After holding out on accusing aZnvaLiaNce I watched the rest of his Day 2 activity carefully:
He goes with the bandwagon here, and then defends Rice:
"##I vote to lynch Mandalor
##I vote to use Double Lynch for tomorrow
I have this very very odd feeling that Rice will turn out blue....."
Kinda sounds like the odd feeling Mandalor had that semioldguy was mafia. Also weird that he would make these posts that make no apparent contribution - Rice is blue - no idea why! - This is pointing to a bum but no idea who that could be. I make vague statements like these when I have gut feelings or complicated feelings I can't quite explain without barreling into yet another War and Peace-length post but they don't make up all 100% of my stated thoughts.
I sent a pm to semioldguy asking to check it out and he responded:
+ Show Spoiler +Semioldguy: I can only ask if a clue is one sentence or less... so I'd imagine that anything that is a clue wouldn't be something like an extended metaphor type of clue.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message from Pyrrhuloxia:
From Day 1:
"Over at City Hall Incognito just realized something the mafia might have missed. He began sifting through the rubble thinking he could score something to help catch the mafia. What he didn't know was one stayed back to make sure he was dead. He was shoved forward while hunched over pulling some concrete away and smashed his head into a large chunk of debris. He turned himself around to face the man and knew that whatever could be found was lost. With one shot to the head Incognito's life was ended."
From aZnvaLiaNce's profile:
"How can there be any meaning in the memory of such a being? What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion."
"Whoever wins, the battle does not end. The loser is set free from the battlefield, while the winner must remain there. And the survivor will live out his life as the warrior until the day he dies."
What do you think about using a Day 1 clue check on that?
I responded with this and he's ignored me since (this was more than 24 hours ago). Maybe he's backlogged with IMs, though he responded quickly to the first one and has posted a bunch since my second one. Or maybe he's mafia. Most likely he thinks its a shitty idea. I definitely think there are better ideas to check now but this was the best I had when he asked for ideas right after claiming DT.
+ Show Spoiler +You could ask: does "one stayed back" point to aznvaliance? That limitation is probably to keep people from highlighting the whole day post and asking "does it point to so-and-so" to get an extra role check.
EPT
. And for my "random words" maybe you can give us more to work? have you proposed something? and for the last just remember how "sharp" conducted to ra.xor last game, my clue proposal may look simple yet they are all possible. 
