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TL Mafia 2 [GG]

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 13 2008 05:02 GMT
#9
Please sign me up for this round, Chu.

Regardless, let's hope that this works out better than the last
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 18 2008 23:10 GMT
#743
Is the town really getting anywhere with all of this? While discussion does promote contested claims, which can give us more to work with later, trying to deliberately stir up antagonism will only result in lack of objectivity as more clues become available. Currently, they are essentially worthless.

So, everyone, let's try to keep things civil and relatively calm. Until someone can convince me without falling back on vitriol or unsubstantiated nonsense, I'll be abstaining.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 18 2008 23:58 GMT
#788
The plot thickens!

[quote=Uncovering Ambition]Normally in ARG's, the creator gives a helping hand by using an anonymous account and baiting clues when the players get stumped. I think the staff may be doing the same thing. Possibly using the accounts "Akzent" ie accent, "Leunal", and "Chezinu" [edit added conjonner] Conjonner. All three accounts were created this month ,within three days of each other, and have very few posts.[/quote]
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 19 2008 03:43 GMT
#929
We'll have to wait until more clues come in. At this stage, preliminaries are all well and good, but with nothing at all to cross-reference them with, any accusations should be taken with many, many grains of salt.

Which, of course, we all know.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 19 2008 22:42 GMT
#1127
Good work guys, hopefully this will be a herald of glorious things to come
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 20 2008 00:37 GMT
#1174
Problem is, that's how Ghar's original post was formatted... without further editing, that is.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 20 2008 04:51 GMT
#1327
You make it sound as if he had a choice. What's one guess to another?
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 20 2008 04:52 GMT
#1329
On March 20 2008 13:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
You make it sound as if he had a choice. What's one guess to another?


That was in response to bumatlarge; sorry for the discontinuity, but I don't want to edit
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 23 2008 22:03 GMT
#2237
It's obviously not you, of course.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 24 2008 20:25 GMT
#2557
Haha, I suspect the day post writeup for that last scenario would be quite epic :D
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 24 2008 20:42 GMT
#2568
It's okay, Shallow. We still <3 you

On a more relevant note, I'm not entirely sure what's going on in the flurry of PMs, but Ace has pretty much reduced this to a formula. Kudos to him, and good luck to you noob mafia trying to circumvent it. Try to keep the town entertained, k?
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 26 2008 15:42 GMT
#2915
Granted it was pretty amusing, and kept the thread bumped... but yeah, misconceptions on the fundamental rules of the game don't exactly help anyone.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 27 2008 04:03 GMT
#3015
http://teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=wurm

I know where my towel is.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 27 2008 04:24 GMT
#3031
Some thoughts on the post...

California Mountain Snake was throwing "matter" at the side of the house, with no apparent damage. Later, he throws "matter" (presumably it's not directed energy) at Dinmsab, resulting in his decapitation. Odd. I haven't been going through profiles, but it seemed quirky and noteworthy.

Mr. Black is a very good fighter, managing to grapple a baseball bat, parrying a knife stab with the bat, and then breaking JeeJee's grip and finishing him. Considering JeeJee seemed rather proficient himself - the towel-around-the-arm trick is pretty damned hard to get right, in my opinion - Mr. Black seems quite the professional considering the ease with which he dispatched him. Gah, pronouns.

Eddie and Taipan Snake chose a very odd way to kill French_Toast, and the finisher was almost as nonsensical. In fact, the entire paragraph made very little sense. I'm assuming that French_Toast's neighbor isn't mafia and instead had lawn darts for a perfectly innocuous reason. Considering that there are a slew of convenient, painful ways to kill someone's neck on a broken window and then killing them on lawn darts (what the heck are those, anyways?), this pair speaks of having way too much time on their hands.

Fishball's paragraph seemed odd. Why is he looking for lawn darts, and why would he run back to his house to call instead of using a cell phone? Meh. So, Mr. Pink is quiet and brutal, considering he convinced Mr. Brown to beat Fishball to death instead of just shooting him. So, lawn darts are important, and Mr. Pink is quiet but mean.

LucasWoJ is much too nice for his own good :/ Sidewinder is really embodying the sick and diseased trait. If someone fits that description, I think it's worth a check. Not too much to say about Joe, but he seems a bit like the average guy, from his name and speech and actions. Sad to say it... but someone average? xD

I'm almost certain ShadowDrgn is a Vigi kill.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
March 30 2008 04:42 GMT
#3514
The fact that the town's "strong" convictions have all failed should be a pointed hint to re-consider how we evaluate clues. Granted, there are a LOT of players, which creates overlap and ambiguities, especially when most of the clues refer to non-specific things.

A lot of people in the U.S. have sentiments for change, and swords are a common motif in many members' profiles. The fact that you're using degrees or levels of relation (and that many other facets of Snake Charmer have nothing to do with me) makes for rather flimsy evidence. If Energies is too obvious to be a power-cutter, I don't see why my name and a picture of a sword should connect me to a rampant slasher.

I think we should be looking in other directions for our next lynch. Going by subjective views based on ambiguous evidence won't get us anywhere.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 06 2008 23:16 GMT
#3796
I'd like to point out to Plexa, G.s)NarutO, and Energies that d.arkive was ruled innocent through process of detective-based elimination.

On April 05 2008 03:52 (Page 186) Ace wrote:
hmm ok. Chew on this for a while:

Empyrean was roleblocked yesterday.
I'm roleblocked today.

From: New104
Subject: Re: Detective Ability
Date: 4/2/08 03:13
1.

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
How many mafia voted for Ace on Day 3?

old message:

MTF
SpiritoftheTuna
d.arkive
Pangolin(2)
Plexa
~OpZ~
NatsuTerran
Eti307
Empyrean
JoxxOr
Romance_us
BloodyC0bbler

are all confirmed innocent


No point wasting your votes there.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 07 2008 01:59 GMT
#3800
I think that a lot of inactivity problems could be solved simply by first trying to condense the number of posts into a lesser number of more meaningful contributions, and also possibly by lowering the number of players per round.

And BlindAlbino, what exactly do you mean by:

if it is finding down, you can look up to see clearly.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 07 2008 03:52 GMT
#3808
Add those to all of these guys:

MTF
SpiritoftheTuna
d.arkive
Pangolin(2)
Plexa
~OpZ~
NatsuTerran
Eti307
Empyrean
JoxxOr
Romance_us
BloodyC0bbler
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 07 2008 06:16 GMT
#3818
Cross-referencing some lists:

Confirmed Innocent:

MTF
SpiritoftheTuna
d.arkive
Pangolin
Plexa
~OpZ~
NatsuTerran
Eti307
Empyrean
JoxxOr
Romance_us
BloodyC0bbler


Ghar - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
ShadowDrgn
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
Evilmonkey.


Ace - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
Chezinu
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
fusionsdf
~OpZ~
Evilmonkey.


Here, the following coincide in the two lists:

imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie


Whereas these occur once:

Chezinu
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
fusionsdf


Of these, the following can easily be count-checked:

fusionsdf (only one voting for Ace)
Chezinu (only one voting for Ninja4ever)
---
aZnvaLiaNce voted for TranceStorm with 13 others, so that's a dead end for now.


Abstentions:

imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie
useLess


Do with this what you will.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 07 2008 14:22 GMT
#3833
Ace, if you have any more information from the DTs, especially any lists we can use, it'd be greatly appreciated if you would disclose them.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 07 2008 23:42 GMT
#3853
clazziquai, calm done. The town will be quite fine.

And BlindAlbino, I agree tenuously with you on Energies, but suresh0t seems a bit less clear. What links him to the mafia, in your opinion?
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 08 2008 00:24 GMT
#3856
Yeah, we're definitely better off building up a net of cross-referenced count-checks. Since there's no time-elapse limit on count-checking, I suggest using the following to ascertain our current list of suspects and hopefully build up on more targets.

Unfortunately, there are a lot of mafia hiding in the abstain/no vote columns, which is a bit irritating. In the meantime, though, let's check:

Day 3 Votes:

zeks:
aZnvaLiaNce (suspect)

Ninja4ever - 2:
NatsuTerran (confirmed innocent)
Chezinu (suspect)


Day 4 Votes:

TranceStorm - 13:
aZnvaLiaNce (suspect)
MTF (confirmed innocent)
BloodyC0bbler (confirmed innocent)
Meta
rpf
L
bumatlarge
smurfingchobo
MidnightGladius
Lenwe
unsoundlogic
Hittegods
GranDim


First two are single checks, the last is meant to open a few more doors, hopefully.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 08 2008 01:55 GMT
#3861
I'm fine with that.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 08 2008 13:02 GMT
#3876
So, if aZnvaLiaNce is indeed the mafia from TranceStorm's list, then we can also confirm one from Chezinu, useLess, or fusiondf.

If the Jack could check the zeks vote from Day 3 (only aZnvaLiaNce voted for him), then we can tie this lead up, one way or another.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 09 2008 00:32 GMT
#3896
d.arkive is on a list of confirmed innocents... which brings me to asking - why am I a suspect?
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 09 2008 01:52 GMT
#3902
We can't work with the abstain list at all, BlindAlbino
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 09 2008 02:13 GMT
#3910
So Shallow's 3 different people, 2 of whom are dead?

I'm sorry fusion, but this isn't Psychiatric Ward Mafia, and no one's allowed to have split personalities
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 09 2008 02:41 GMT
#3916
... because it moves the plot? Bajad drovja, you're in no position to be forcing explanations for anything on anyone. The most suspicious person here is you, and trying to analyze Chuiu's thought process is absurd beyond plausibility.

Last game, he used kicks quite frequently, and the town was pointing at chicken (since chickens don't have arms, right?). I think that the personality clues give us a great way to separate what must be a clue and what might be a clue. Let's keep working on referencing vote counts and using solid evidence; deviating from the model that we've all been using so far isn't exactly helpful.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 10 2008 05:45 GMT
#3950
Technically, I don't think we're supposed to talk during nighttime at all
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 14 2008 16:53 GMT
#4487
I'm back from Los Angeles. Sorry for the inactivity these last four days.

This next week and a half will be really busy for me (AP placement tests for next year), and it seems like MTF and Plexa are doing well as detectives.

If you want me dead, then go ahead, but there's one thing I just have to clear up first:

Volrath Ishnikar is a character in one of the short stories I wrote back in eighth grade. Chuiu has no way to know this (unless he's Christopher Collazo of Tampa, Florida, which I highly doubt), but he's an idealist who became corrupted by the Reversalist Zarandur, who promised him a separate existence for him to declare justice upon. He's called the Faithless General for betraying the High Lord Zuranh Darok at Serandahal, and his quote is from his trial at the end of the story.

I also want to apologize for seizing upon the lists' cross-referencing (causing d.arkive not to be lynched and letting him suicide our DT), but at the time it was the only thing I had enough time to work with, and I trusted the information that was given to us... a few mistakes I won't be making again.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 14 2008 21:30 GMT
#4491
I'm really anticipating what you're going to say when I come up green, MTF
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 14 2008 21:51 GMT
#4495
By the way,how did Plexa make that conclusion about the two of us? I must have missed it somewhere, but if he's indeed correct, I'll consider my death a suitable price for netting a mafia.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 14 2008 22:13 GMT
#4498
Fine, I'll come out and say it, if it makes any difference to you: I'm green.

For the record, I also disagree with a lot of MTF's clue reasonings (unsound =/= lack of sound), but I don't think he's mafia, and I won't until someone explains to me why Plexa singled the two of us out.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 14 2008 22:23 GMT
#4501
In that case, I trust Plexa for his previous analysis, and I'll go with him on this one. Either way, MTF will probably be lynched tomorrow after I'm vigi-ed tonight I can only hope that he does indeed turn out red.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 14 2008 22:38 GMT
#4507
I'm only working with the conditions I'm given - that one of the two of us is mafia (still don't know why, but I'm running on trust here), and that I'm not. To me, you have to be mafia, or Plexa is wrong; I'm sure the same applies to your posting perspective.

Since the town seems convinced that the clues point to me, I concede my death. I'm satisfied in knowing that you won't outlive me long, and that there'll be at least one less mafia before Night 6.

Of course, assuming Plexa's not wrong.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 14 2008 23:09 GMT
#4509
Yep, I can't wait to see how I die
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 15 2008 01:42 GMT
#4533
Eh, but it's a confirmed, dead detective's van... unless Chuiu is implicating that he and our van driver were in cahoots, which seems rather unlikely, if you want to tie it to mafia.

We'll see at the end, but it seems superfluous to me.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 15 2008 17:38 GMT
#4594
Everyone owes me a post-death apology. Yeah, I'm asking for it now
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 15 2008 17:44 GMT
#4596
If I don't die in the morning, I'll be dead before night, the way things are going. Only thing that's going to save me is if MTF is vigi'ed and turns out red. Para mi, the chances of that happening are slim enough to warrant my death, sooner more likely than later.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 16 2008 00:38 GMT
#4619
Wait, aren't I supposed to be Snake Charmer?

:p
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
April 16 2008 00:47 GMT
#4622
Sorry MTF, I thought that last paragraph was directed to me, until I realized you would never say such nice things about me :D
Trust in Bayes.
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