|
On April 11 2008 11:56 qrs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 11:43 Amber[LighT] wrote:On April 11 2008 11:32 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:56 Amber[LighT] wrote:On April 11 2008 10:23 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:06 Amber[LighT] wrote:
No one finds it ironic that the suicidebomber killed our last detective?! almost like taunting us. At this point I think we have to assume that the mafia has at least a partial list of rolled towniesEspecially since they've been ignoring active townies for inactive ones, something that doesnt make sense as part of standard mafia strategy. How?! This makes no sense to me. We aren't posting these people's names all over the forum, unless I missed that post. araav + irc So why aren't we targeting him? Did we decide it was okay to kill off all the players with special roles? Even if he's a townie that's shitty to do. Because we don't know what happened. araav says it wasn't him. Ace sort of maybe says that the blues weren't in the channel, or only some of the blues were in the channel, I don't know.
I think regardless of what Ace says, the odds of mafia getting this lucky with kills.....well its really fucking low. So obviously a leak exists somewhere. Im not going to call for araav to be lynched because we are divided enough as far as targets go right now anyways, but it seems to me that either araav is mafia, or Ace is mafia. (Or there is some other leak we arent aware of, like a mafia making it through Ace's filter system)
If we run out of clues or dont have any leads, it would probably be best to follow the mandalor list and assume a role-leak in order to have good odds.
|
On April 11 2008 12:20 Plexa wrote:
People, fuck the lists.
They are a great aid but we shouldn't be pushing them any further.
Rather than take a guess and go "OH EASY 1/3 CHANCE = INSTA WIN" sit back, check the players, and see what the clues spell out.
Rational arguments based on clues are hard to deny, argue or even counter.
On that note L is mafioso. Yes Cottonmouth threw 15 knives, but the important thing how the clues are worded. Why say that he threw 3 knives into each of his legs and 3 into his back? Why is it worded so? Summing the numbers stated you get 12 and given the lack of evidence pertaining to L this is a damming clue against him. This clue is very much alike to Queasy and Sidewinder and should not be lightly dismissed simply.
Sorry plexa, but I have no idea how you can push something that shaky
you basically have
12 = mafia
L = 12
which is pretty flawed
first of all, its not 12, since you are willfully ignoring daggers to further a theory. Second, the 12 could equally apply to wizard, or hey shallow[bay] has 12 characters in his name! Lets lynch him instead! Third, we have way better fucking clues than this.
|
yeah, but that grin applies equally to unforgiven who has  as a quote,
and hotzhot: Quote : I only smile in the darK
so its still not very strong
|
keep in mind, that even with the odds I gave above, that doesnt include the odds from the mandalor lists.
None of us are in the mandalo lists, so you are effectively chasing after 7 mafia hiding among 63 townie positions, instead of the 10 mafia hiding in only 37 townies among the mandalor list.
If you dont have any strong clues, youre better off choosing someone from the mandalor list
|
On April 11 2008 12:58 Camlito wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 12:55 fusionsdf wrote:yeah, but that grin applies equally to unforgiven who has as a quote, and hotzhot: Quote : I only smile in the darK so its still not very strong Ok thanks, but do you know where it came from? (Like what clue on what day so i can read it).
-SMILEY
SMILEY
[2,11]He tried to find the shotgun he had stashed in his closet but only found a smiley in its place.
GRIN
[4,7]Enigma ||grinned|| back at him and motioned someone to come to him. Eddie and Taipan Snake walked around the corner.
|
On April 11 2008 13:56 Plexa wrote:+ Show Spoiler [eddie] +Eddie stood in front of them, gun pointing to Chuiu, ready to shoot at a moments notice. "We don't like the way you're running things, and its time for change, either you submit and follow my leadership or you get to taste lead for dinner".
Solemn but seeing a promising future the two returned to the room where Eddie and Joe were starting to lay out plans.
Eddie, the fourth man, defended him and sprinted toward Yogurt expecting an easy fight. He was surprised to find that, although quite drunk, Yogurt had only lost the capacity to feel pain. With each attack Yogurt made a crazy and elaborate counter. Eddie made a lucky kick knocking Yogurt to the ground and went back to Black Mamba to get some help.
Yogurt was just getting started as he approached Black Mamba and Eddie. He kicked Eddie aside as he was helping Black Mamba recover from the stone that struck his face and stumbled but still managed to make an easy round house kick to knock Black Mamba back down. He moved toward Eddie readying himself for another fight but was tripped by Black Mambas flailing legs. Eddie was up at that point, however, and began kicking Yogurt in the gut. Black Mamba felt his way up and began kicking Yogurt in the back to compliment Eddies assault. They both took their turns dealing with Yogurt but when Eddie noticed Yogurt manage to pull some sort of switch out of his pocket he yelled at Black Mamba to back off. They backed away from Yogurt and watched in anticipation expecting him to set off a bomb attached to his chest. He hit the switch and an explosion sent shock waves from across town. Eddie half-panicked and shot Yogurt in the face as he motioned everyone to retreat.
As if the last couple events weren't out of the blue enough for him Frenh_Toast found himself being dragged to the nearest window. Eddie smashed the glass of the window and Taipan Snake grabbed French_Toast's head and they both used the remaining broken glass in the window pane to stab his neck with. It wasn't until they threw him through the window and he landed on his neighbors lawn darts did French_Toast die though.
Eddie and Taipan Snake walked around the corner. "Oh I see you have friends" said Empyrean, now realized how screwed he was. "Yeah they're pretty cool guys, always ready to help"
Lenwe snatched up the piece of rebar and Mr. Red retreated to the new threat he posed. Eddie wasn't afraid to take on Lenwe, however, and charged strait at him grabbing the steel bar right out of his hand and knocking him to the ground with it. A few well placed blows and Lenwe was dead as well. - Seems to be the leader of the group - No preferred method of killing (darts/glass, steel bar and kicking so far) - Seems to be very strong Here we go.... The clue persist to Asian Valiance's name. It fits the characterisation of a leader, one eager to fight and one thats not afraid (of lenwe). Definition, valiance means "The qualities of a hero or heroine; exceptional or heroic courage when facing danger (especially in battle)".
lol
and yet he half-panicked and shot yogurt in the face
|
to me, the fact that he
a) got a lucky kick
b) got a lucky shot on yogurt
means we should look for luck as a clue for eddie
|
Solemn but seeing a promising future the two returned to the room where Eddie and Joe were starting to lay out plans.
and those are the kinds of quotes Im pointing to.
Not a single person here can say that "Solemn but seeing a promising future" isnt a clue.
Things like that are what we should be looking at
|
On April 11 2008 14:05 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 14:01 fusionsdf wrote:
to me, the fact that he
a) got a lucky kick
b) got a lucky shot on yogurt
means we should look for luck as a clue for eddie the fact that Yogurt was our mad hatter and characterised as a good fighter means the luck clues are someone less strong secondly thats was o-n-e night not all nights. Hence luck has very very little to do with eddie and the luck can be dismissed as filler
how so? Its not like shooting someone in the face on a lucky shot is valiant
You are starting with suspects, and trying to link clues to them. And thats a mistake.
and luck is not a filler. If you think it is, I highly suggest you look at the game one wrap up
|
On April 11 2008 14:07 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 14:03 fusionsdf wrote:
Solemn but seeing a promising future the two returned to the room where Eddie and Joe were starting to lay out plans.
and those are the kinds of quotes Im pointing to. Not a single person here can say that "Solemn but seeing a promising future" isnt a clue. Things like that are what we should be looking at Awesome sdf now link it to a mafia, ill help you, it links to The Wolf and Taipan. Not eddie, nor joe. Its plot filler.
no
its not
I'll fucking sig bet you
at the end of the game
chuiu will reveal it
and its going to read out
"Solemn(name1) but seeing a promising future(name2)"
Those are clues and traits we should look for, no matter which particular mafia it links too, instead of following half baked theories
|
On April 11 2008 14:08 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 14:07 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 14:05 Plexa wrote:On April 11 2008 14:01 fusionsdf wrote:
to me, the fact that he
a) got a lucky kick
b) got a lucky shot on yogurt
means we should look for luck as a clue for eddie the fact that Yogurt was our mad hatter and characterised as a good fighter means the luck clues are someone less strong secondly thats was o-n-e night not all nights. Hence luck has very very little to do with eddie and the luck can be dismissed as filler how so? Its not like shooting someone in the face on a lucky shot is valiant You are starting with suspects, and trying to link clues to them. And thats a mistake. and luck is not a filler. If you think it is, I highly suggest you look at the game one wrap up I've seen the game one wrap up and there were PERSISTENT THEMES which linked to mafia. Not strange one offs - those turned out to be red herrings
Yeah
and it just happens to link eddie with luck twice
and we have spare sentences like:
[1,2]Chuiu and DapperDan were betrayed by their own comrades, and now their ||lives hanged on the balance.||
and you want to throw it away for a valiant thing thats contradicted by your own quote. I really like how you try to argue panicking and shooting someone is valiant. No. Fucking. Sense.
Just so you can steer it to suspects youve already chosen, when you have less than a 5% of finding a mafia among those 6.
|
could you explain this a little bit more?
I see five medic actions, which looks correct
and
11 mafia actions (when they should only have 8)
Is that the problem?
What does it indicate?
|
On April 11 2008 14:18 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 14:13 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 14:08 Plexa wrote:On April 11 2008 14:07 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 14:05 Plexa wrote:On April 11 2008 14:01 fusionsdf wrote:
to me, the fact that he
a) got a lucky kick
b) got a lucky shot on yogurt
means we should look for luck as a clue for eddie the fact that Yogurt was our mad hatter and characterised as a good fighter means the luck clues are someone less strong secondly thats was o-n-e night not all nights. Hence luck has very very little to do with eddie and the luck can be dismissed as filler how so? Its not like shooting someone in the face on a lucky shot is valiant You are starting with suspects, and trying to link clues to them. And thats a mistake. and luck is not a filler. If you think it is, I highly suggest you look at the game one wrap up I've seen the game one wrap up and there were PERSISTENT THEMES which linked to mafia. Not strange one offs - those turned out to be red herrings Yeah and it just happens to link eddie with luck twice and we have spare sentences like: [1,2]Chuiu and DapperDan were betrayed by their own comrades, and now their ||lives hanged on the balance.|| and you want to throw it away for a valiant thing thats contradicted by your own quote. I really like how you try to argue panicking and shooting someone is valiant. No. Fucking. Sense. Just so you can steer it to suspects youve already chosen, when you have less than a 5% of finding a mafia among those 6. Wow wtf fusion? Huge oversight on your behalf... There is a 1/6% chance of one of those people being mafia. I took the names from the list where there are KNOWN MAFIA and analysed them because everyone is so hung up over these lists. If you want to link eddie to luck, be my guest. imo he very well could be Lostyourskills (as he was lucky on night two and now is growing more habitual) but cmon fusion, offer SOME analysis insted of half baked quasi-conjecture. "WOW THERE IS LUCK IN DAY 2 OMG" doesn't get us anywhere, take it that step further - how does it link to someone? etcetcetc The fact that eddie "half-panicked" and not "panicked" is enough to create doubt around your attack i think. Furthermore, it fits the plotline that they need to his yogurt some time so he can flip the switch.
he half-panicked and not full-panicked so now he is valiant?
|
On April 11 2008 14:16 Camlito wrote:
nemY's Public Profile:
~You're in my soul~
~You're in my mind~
~But I don't know where you are now
King brown snake is known to meet face to face, and fall over at times, which is where the "But i don't know where you are now" comes from.
meeting, especially face to face eye to eye and that sort of thing shows up A LOT
So if you can link this to someone its huge.
Unfortunately, unless you have more, thats not a huge link
|
On April 11 2008 14:23 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 14:19 fusionsdf wrote:
could you explain this a little bit more?
I see five medic actions, which looks correct
and
11 mafia actions (when they should only have 8)
Is that the problem?
What does it indicate? The first 6 all make sense with what we know - 1 kill for each and a 2nd listing for Lenwe since he took a hit. The last 5 are odd. The Mafia have/had a killing power of 9. The PMs I got add up to 11 actions. One of the 3 medics I told to protect Plexa is lying, and/or the Jack and th medic I told to protect him is lying. I don't know if he really assumed Vet status and got hit, or both since I don't know how Chuiu decides. If the Jack turned Vet and got hit, does 1 protection count or is the vet extra life counted first? If the extra life is counted first does that mean the medic is still informed and the target(Jack) also?
shit.
Just a scenario:
so it looks like perhaps at the start of the game a medic was afk, and a mafia claimed his role?
Do the medics or jack in question have access to the list of town roles?
More importantly
Were any of those three in the chatroom/knew about the chatroom when araav invaded?
|
On April 11 2008 14:24 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 14:22 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 14:18 Plexa wrote:On April 11 2008 14:13 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 14:08 Plexa wrote:On April 11 2008 14:07 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 14:05 Plexa wrote:On April 11 2008 14:01 fusionsdf wrote:
to me, the fact that he
a) got a lucky kick
b) got a lucky shot on yogurt
means we should look for luck as a clue for eddie the fact that Yogurt was our mad hatter and characterised as a good fighter means the luck clues are someone less strong secondly thats was o-n-e night not all nights. Hence luck has very very little to do with eddie and the luck can be dismissed as filler how so? Its not like shooting someone in the face on a lucky shot is valiant You are starting with suspects, and trying to link clues to them. And thats a mistake. and luck is not a filler. If you think it is, I highly suggest you look at the game one wrap up I've seen the game one wrap up and there were PERSISTENT THEMES which linked to mafia. Not strange one offs - those turned out to be red herrings Yeah and it just happens to link eddie with luck twice and we have spare sentences like: [1,2]Chuiu and DapperDan were betrayed by their own comrades, and now their ||lives hanged on the balance.|| and you want to throw it away for a valiant thing thats contradicted by your own quote. I really like how you try to argue panicking and shooting someone is valiant. No. Fucking. Sense. Just so you can steer it to suspects youve already chosen, when you have less than a 5% of finding a mafia among those 6. Wow wtf fusion? Huge oversight on your behalf... There is a 1/6% chance of one of those people being mafia. I took the names from the list where there are KNOWN MAFIA and analysed them because everyone is so hung up over these lists. If you want to link eddie to luck, be my guest. imo he very well could be Lostyourskills (as he was lucky on night two and now is growing more habitual) but cmon fusion, offer SOME analysis insted of half baked quasi-conjecture. "WOW THERE IS LUCK IN DAY 2 OMG" doesn't get us anywhere, take it that step further - how does it link to someone? etcetcetc The fact that eddie "half-panicked" and not "panicked" is enough to create doubt around your attack i think. Furthermore, it fits the plotline that they need to his yogurt some time so he can flip the switch. he half-panicked and not full-panicked so now he is valiant? Looking at a macroscopic picture of eddie rather than a microscopic. You've always analysed based on the microscope, great, more power to you. I generally analyse on the macroscope and get a general picture. So far im 2-1 in my "100% mafia" lists; i'm yet to see anything from you yet  Let's start right now. One of my initial suspects for eddie was lostyourskills after day 1 (chuiu had lost his mayoral skills). Now, however, it seems that eddies luck has turned into skill ala his quote. your opinion please?
I've been selfish to prevent getting killed by mafia after a failed presidential campaign, and as such have been unable to sway the town to vote for a specific person.
I admire your detective skills, obviously it took both of us to do so well last game.
But I think by looking for suspects before looking for clues, your making a mistake.
And while statistics arent everything,
the first three guys that appear on both lists have a 50% chance of being mafia out of all of us,
I have a 25% chance
the other 2 have a 20% chance.
but that masks the fact that there are only 1 maybe 2 mafia in this group.
The mandalor list contains many more mafia.
However, if you want to lynch someone from the list (I'm being selfish here)
You should lynch either Useless or asian valiance, since knowing either of their alliances will give you concrete proof of the allegiance of the other 5.
If useLess(1/5G) is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) and aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) are innocent and fusionsdf(1/4A) is mafia.
If aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) and useLess(1/5G) are innocent, fusionsdf(1/4A) is mafia.
If either of those 2 are mafia, then so am I. If either one of them are innocent, then so am I.
|
On April 11 2008 14:28 Ace wrote:
1.) Only the Jack knew of the chatroom
2.) The jack didn't have access to the list
3.) we already know there is a lying Medic in the bunch
It seems unlikely that araav could sneak in without a mole inside.
Perhaps lying medic + jack?
but that would be an extremely unlikely compromise of the filter system.
We established earlier that it was smartest for mafia to mostly claim townie (still an advantage to town) but it was a disadvantage for all mafia to claim townie (since you could verify all townie roles, and by claiming a few special roles, they slowly sacrifice members to create confusion)
Mandalor, I think proved that they were trying to claim special roles. Is it possible that two were successful?
It seems with the ratio we are seeing (14 green, 13 blue) that there almost must be a mole with access to at least a partial role list.
If you can determine who is a potential mole that would have access to the role lists (or at least would know which dead blues were blue) then we could stop the problem.
We started out with a strong system, but moles inside the filter is like a leak in a boat.
|
On April 11 2008 14:08 Camlito wrote:
the red moon stared them back in the face like a terrifying omen
That was from day 1, i find the sentence suspicious myself.
Edit: Could it be nemy? A red haired person staring at herself in a mirror - just a thought.
keep in mind that red moon could also relate to lunatic
terrifying omen could relate to religion (there are quite a few religious clues I think, but I dont have them ordered)
|
On April 11 2008 14:38 Plexa wrote:
ok, seeing as you can comprehend the statistiscs
If aznvaliance is mafia then what does that mean?
I am mafia, everyone else is innocent
IF evilmonkey is mafia then what does that mean?
everyone else is innocent
Assuming you, imderek and alventenie are innocent what does that mean?
it means useless and aznvaliance is innocent as well. Mafia must be Evil Monkey.
|
Ace, what are the odds araav is mafia?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
