EPTCDRDude has looked pretty good to me for most of the game, though.
Team Liquid Mafia [gg] - Page 7
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Tracil
Australia505 Posts
CDRDude has looked pretty good to me for most of the game, though. | ||
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I DO NOT INHERIT THE MAYORAL POSITION IF STEVE DIES. | ||
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Scum could be doing nothing and we wouldn't even know, because the same goes for most townies. <-> When day hits tomorrow I will be doing a fairly sizable post and looking at the previous vote records for patterns. I have nothing else to say during night, and feel it would be wiser to keep my suspicions to myself until the numbers have whittled down a bit. | ||
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I didn't want to go back on my word either. I felt that either way, people would then go 'Tracil is suspicious!' so I decided to stick to my guns. | ||
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On February 23 2008 17:53 imDerek wrote: great, you guys lynched the mayor now we don't have a mayor Sheer brilliance. | ||
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I've made no claims to being a brilliant detective. I've pointed out- repeatedly- that town needs to do a lot of things it hasn't really been doing to get anywhere. It's moronic to lay the current state of the game entirely at my feet. <-> I did some basic math. With 39 townies left, even assuming the mafia kill just 3 people per day, it'll take 13 days for them to kill the entire town- and that's not counting more mislynches or misfired vig kills, the EXTRA mafia kills, and the fact that the mafia only need to outnumber town... well. It's not counting paramedics or veterans either, but I think that's only going to be delaying the inevitable. My enthusiasm for this game has hit an all-time low. | ||
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I'm still here! I just don't have anything to add for the moment. | ||
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Anyway let's see. If the detective list can be trusted, then let's consider that one of the votes was an Elder- and it's highly likely that the elders are stacking their votes. Therefore, only 10 people total lynched the mayor, so only 9 of them are townies. We should consider this, yes- but a 1/10 chance to lynch someone is less good odds than a 13/46, so we have to consider beyond that. I suggest ignoring that group of people for the time being as vote candidates, because then our odds get reduced to a 12/36(1/3!) chance- better all around. This is all assuming the detective is not lying, but at this point in the game, town is pretty boned without a miracle, so that's a chance I'm willing to take. Mostly reiteration of what the detective said, I think. Anyhow. dinmsab has the idea that townies with roles should submit information to a singular 'head' who is a proven townie. An Elder could fit that criteria. They possess a demonstratable power that can be used to confirm them as town- bascially, all they have to do is show they control two votes. I could support this, and do. *You can trust an Elder*- we just need one to speak up for the time being and be willing to risk themselves. ONLY ONE Elder should do this at a time. It is *too much* of a risk to out all our remaining power roles to a potential mafia. An Elder is our only chance. Bodyguards can't be mafia, din. <-> I guess I'm mostly inherently suspicious of people who don't qualify their votes when they change them. Unfortunately that's nearly everyone, and they tend to come out in droves. I tried to analyze voting patterns, and... the lists just stared at me, and I stared back, and I couldn't come to any strong conclusions. The idea that only one mafia member was voting for Fakesteve baffles me, I've got to say. Bah, I'm having serious trouble just keeping my enthusiasm for this game high. I'm gonna come back tomorrow, I can't face looking through all these pages at the moment. Repeated failure has taken it's toll on me. | ||
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I realised that no matter if I pardon'd him or not, some people would assume it to be a tell of mine. So I felt I was caught between two extremes. In such a position, I felt it wiser to stick to my word. | ||
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Tracil
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Did you guys totally ignore my absolutely foolproof plan for locating a confirmed townie to tell all of this to? I'll go over it again- an Elder can confirm he has two votes by demonstrating his power to.. vote twice. We then ask for a votecount update from Chuiu, and hey, presto- we find out if he's lying or not. | ||
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Ah, hell, I'll put 2 and 2 together for everyone. Again. An elder can doublevote, which is not a power that scum can duplicate. Doublevotes are evident from the votecount. By *claiming ahead of time* what his votes are going to be and then backing them up, an elder can prove his legitimacy- his townhood. We then know he can be trusted. He can then get everyone to PM him their roles and actions and conclusions and stuff, and can then perhaps arrange them to his liking. We'll know he's town, so we can trust him. He doesn't need to disclose his overall plan to each and every power role. If he gets more power roles than he should, then he can use his discretion on who to call out in public. | ||
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Keep in mind that the initial plan dnimsab presented was *critically flawed* and involved a random response. Now, the plan itself wasn't bad... after I fixed it, but it would still be weird to tell anyone but HotZhot about this. Mang. I'm not saying it's a scumtell, but I am trying to get people to be careful. | ||
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But, well, whatever, it still stands that he's said like nothing all day and for most of the game, at that. | ||
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Weird. | ||
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So the one case I don't think about, like, at all turns out to be the right one. I SEE. I uh yeah. What. | ||
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