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On March 01 2008 04:10 Live2Win wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2008 02:56 Fen wrote:
Ok, assuming Live2Win is mafia, lets look at the game.
- A reoccurring theme is that a mafia with a syringe is injecting people with a substance that seems like it is supposed to increase strength. It fits the description of a stim very well and the best fit is Live2Win's Sig.
- He gets in trouble and is about to be townie lynched. He looks at the list, realises that there are 4 paramedic positions still alive. Chances are, one is not playing and he can assume that role. His move pays off.
- After announcing to everyone that he is a paramedic, he is not attacked by the mafia. You would assume the mafia would want to take paramedics down as their power becomes greater as the townie numbers decrease.
- After becoming the medic that is supposed to watch over the townies most valuble asset, he "accidently" sends the PM to the wrong person and the detective dies.
This info is pretty solid against you Live2Win. I'm interested to hear your counterargument.
EDIT: only to make it more readable Recurring theme - I can understand how that can lead to me. I was hoping the suspicion would die down when TMTM died, but apparently he wasn't the one the clues were pointing to. As soon as I saw Day 5's clues, I knew people would mention me once again. Pretending to be Paramedic - Far too risky. Pretending to assume a position means you WILL be uncovered eventually. It puts a timeline on your life. If I was mafia, my goal would be to stay alive until the end. I wouldn't assume a role unless I knew I could live it out. Of course, both cases have no proof to back them up. - Not attacked by mafia - I'm actually baffled by this myself. I figured by night 2 I was going to be a gonner. My only guess is that another medic protected me. If that's the case, I'm screwed unless that person reveals himself. If no one protected me... then perhaps the mafia knew I would get lynched eventually, succesfully making the town waste a lynch on me. - Accident - This one should be easy to defend. What good do I get out from making up this "accident?" If I was mafia, pretending to be medic, why would I even send out a PM to anyone? PMing Chuiu would do no good, and sending a "fake PM" and then posting it would only make me look suspicious. What motive do I have to intentially bring the suspicion back to me? If I was mafia being a paramedic, all I have to do is say I'm protecting someone and pretend to do so. But to intentionally do things that would bring suspicion to myself? Does that make sense? If a paramedic saved you you'd be notified.
Paramedic - You have the ability to watch one other player during night, which you must tell me about before the end of night (preferably before night even starts). You may choose not to use this ability also. When a player is watched he cannot die unless the number of people attacking him outnumbers the number of people watching him. In other words if two mafia attack a person being watched by one paramedic, the person will die. A clue will not be left behind, the town won't know who was saved, but I will let the Paramedic know if he saved the person or not and let the person know if he was saved or not.
The fact that you apparently haven't looked at your role description more carefully either implies you are a mafia and are assuming the role of a medic...or you're just not a very good medic 
So that still casts doubt as to why the mafia hasn't killed you. There is the possibility that they want to keep you alive knowing we'll probably lynch you due to the syringe clue...but still. I'm gonna hold my vote for a while until I can gain a firm position on this, don't want to end up changing my vote 2-3 times like I always do. Especially since as I mentioned that drug testing/syringe clue might also point to vharox.
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im 100% sure L2W or Tracil are mafia.
my vote goes to Live2WIn
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Unforgiven you always hop in the bandwagon. The only reason I have to doubt you are not mafia is because you suddenly changed your vote to miss the mark at the last moment when he was about to get lynched.
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BTW why don't you guys stop voting on assumptions and not look at the fucking list Alventenie provided? Geez know I understand why FS took the position he did.
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On March 01 2008 10:08 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
im 100% sure L2W or Tracil are mafia.
my vote goes to Live2WIn
great!
mind explaining why?
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As much as I would like to vote for that sick emo goth grandma loving bastard Nemy, I cast my vote for SiZ.FaNtAsY
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lol. Townies fighting back... FINALLY!
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bah keep forgetting about that list
On February 28 2008 00:28 Alventenie wrote:
Tracil - 9
ZaplinG
Southlight
Fen
Falcynn
SiZ.FaNtAsY
zdd
imDerek
Unforgiven_ve
MyHeroNoob
ok so now four of the guys listed are mafia. So I'll try to look for any clues that may point to them. For now let's try to leave Live2Win and Tracil alone unless we fail to find any dirt on these guys.
Edit; yes I realize that I'm kind of putting myself up for lynch by doing this, but since I know I'm not mafia I hope you guys won't end up finding clues where there aren't any (looking at you Vharox ).
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On March 01 2008 10:44 NotSorry wrote:
As much as I would like to vote for that sick emo goth grandma loving bastard Nemy, I cast my vote for SiZ.FaNtAsY
-___-
Why?!
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On March 01 2008 09:45 Tracil wrote:
But Mafia is so easy to play once you're dead. Look at how all the dead people seem to have ID'd all the scum! How will we get by without their help?!?!?!</sarcasm>
I know man all of my guesses are correct as to who's scum or not.
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Live2Win is Mafia!
i know it because the letters in his name are red
[/sarcasm]
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Live2Win
United States6657 Posts
Ok guys, the situation's getting pretty desparate.
We have 11 mafias and 28 townies dead. The vote count per night has gone down to 5. The mafia don't need to kill us all off, they just need to outnumber us, which means they have about 4 or 5 nights to do so.
However if we get incredibly good at hitting our targets, while medics successfully protect their targets (unlike my dumbass) and vigilants pull at least 1 hit, we are likely to win this game. The next two day/night cycle plays a CRUICIAL role in this.
Right now we HAVE to get a mafia kill. It will only bring the count down to 10 mafias, which is still 5 hits per night, but if we get a vigilante or another lynch successfully we will get down to 9 mafias by day 6, which means 4 hits and that'll be good for us.
So this brings back to me. Again, I ask you all this question. WHY WOULD I DO THIS TO MYSELF IF I WAS MAFIA? I can't stress this fact enough. I have NOTHING TO GAIN by pulling this stunt. This is a lose-lose situation for me, no matter what I do. I realize as soon as I made this mistake I was in a horrible position. But I knew unless I came clean with it now, the situation was going to get worst if Tracil pointed it out instead.
Please, someone explain, if I was mafia, what my intentions would be by pulling this stunt.
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Live2Win
United States6657 Posts
On March 01 2008 06:49 Empyrean wrote:
I'm afraid that I'm going to have to vote for Live2Win.
Why?
I'm actually not basing this on the "clues", as as I've stated before, I'm never going to rely on the clues. They've gotten way too many of us killed. In fact, the only clue which actually led to a mafia death was the blatantly obvious one for to miss the mark.
However, I'm going to go with the fact that he publically stated that he was a Paramedic and was expecting to die. However, he still isn't dead. And, coincidentally, NO ONE HAS RECEIVED PARAMEDIC PROTECTION. I would believe him if he publically announced who he was going to protect, but there has been no such announcement. And what do we get? An "accidental" death of our detective.
Way to go.
Of course, it is entirely possible that the mafia just didn't kill him so we suspect him.
...but I don't think that's very likely at all.
I vote for Live2Win
That's not true. I protected Alventine the first night. Before he came out and said he was a detective, (the 3rd night) he PM'd me and ask for parametic protection. That night I protected him, because this was the night I told you all I'd protect anyone who asked for it. Night 4 I was going to protect him again, when I made this really fucked up mistake.
You see in Alventine's "I'm a detective" post that this was true. "So, that is what i have done the last 3 day/nights. I asked Live2Win to protect me tonight, but nobody targeted me (as i did not receive a pm if he protected me successfully, so im assuming i was not targeted) I am going to use my day/night 4 role later to determine more information, but we need to rule out people that we know are townies."
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=66251¤tpage=113#2254
I realize this doesn't prove my innocence, as I could have been pretending to protect Alventine the 3rd night and then had the mafia kill him on the 4th night (assuming I am mafia).... but why would I announce that I DID NOT protect him that night? Why would I dig my own grave?
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Live2Win
United States6657 Posts
On March 01 2008 10:08 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
im 100% sure L2W or Tracil are mafia.
my vote goes to Live2WIn
I don't see how you can be 100% sure either of us are mafia. I obviously know I'm not mafia, but I don't suspect Tracil to being mafia.
Guys, if I do get lynched tonight, PLEASE DO NOT START LYNCHING TRACIL WITHOUT GOOD REASON. THAT IS WHAT THE MAFIA WANTS.
Unforgiven, I've been suspicious of you for awhile now. Explain the reason why you are 100% sure one of us are mafia. Because to me this sounds like a mafia trying to ensure the town lynching two townies over two days, giving the mafia a HUGE advantage.
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Live2Win
United States6657 Posts
On March 01 2008 11:06 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:
Live2Win is Mafia!
i know it because the letters in his name are red
[/sarcasm]
But I was a blue letter when the game started! This means I am the paramedic I announced myself to be!
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guys, please stop voting for Live2Win. No matter how much you think your arguments are true, there's still the possibility that he might not be mafioso, and we could end up losing an all-important medic.
look at dr. dragoon, he acted foolishly, everyone started turning against him, we ended up wasting a lynch and a double lynch at the same time.
FakeSteve: too many people got suspicious of him, we ended up losing 2 double lynches that we need at this point.
So, what should we do? Listen to Falcynn
Since we now know that Alventine was telling the truth, let's use all the info that he's given us. He told us that there were 5 mafia that voted for FakeSteve. now, with imDerek dead, let's focus on clues that could get those 4 mafias lynched, instead of using the lynch on L2W, who we really don't have any evidence against besides the syringe. And honestly, i would rather take the 50% chance of getting a mafioso more than the 11/39 chance.
He screamed out "you're not going to get away with that" as he jumped down to get revenge.
ZBir basically said that he wouldn't forgive the killer.
Therefore, Unforgiven?
Another mafia stood there ready to end his life, his pale hand reached for a gun and shot CDRdude twice in the chest ending his life rather quickly
as someone mentioned before, could be a clue to zdd, who has a picture of the grim reaper on his profile.
those are my contributions for right now.
edit - highlighted names just in case.
edit2 - whoops. haha. i thought i aced geometry last semester... ._.
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On March 01 2008 04:10 Live2Win wrote:
Pretending to be Paramedic - Far too risky. Pretending to assume a position means you WILL be uncovered eventually. It puts a timeline on your life. If I was mafia, my goal would be to stay alive until the end. I wouldn't assume a role unless I knew I could live it out. Of course, both cases have no proof to back them up.
See Live2Win, It wasnt a risky move at all. It was the best possible choice for a mafia in that position. You were about to be lynched by the townies. You had majority of the votes. You were going to die. In that situation, you take a gamble to stay in the game as long as possible.
The paramedic role is very good for the town, it is something we do NOT want to risk killing. Making it a perfect choice. You then look and see that 4/4 paramedics are still alive, considering the amount of people not playing this game, there is a good chance that at least 1 will be not playing. Perfect.
If you are mafia, then that you made a desperate play to stay in the game. It was risky, but then, the alternative was death in 6 hours time, so you didnt have anything to lose. The fact that it worked and everyone changed their vote means that if you are mafia, I'll take my hat off to you because it really was a brilliant play.
You represent 0.5 killing power to the mafia every night. You want to stay in the game as long as possible.
Now I still havnt decided who to vote for yet. On the one hand, I suspect Live2Win is mafia more than any other person in this game. However Live2Win is not part of the group of 8. That being said, there are only 4 out of 11 mafia in that group, leaving 7 that are still roaming around.
Its a case of, do I think Live2Win is mafia enough that I will forgoe a 50% chance of hitting with my next vote?
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11/39 - 28% chance that we lynch a mafia just by randomly picking from anyone.
4/8 - 50% chance that we lynch a mafia by randomly picking from the group that voted against Tracil.
EDIT: Got my maths wrong thanks to goldenkirbi.
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I don't think Live2Win is the mafia
but we'll see...i'm looking at the clues right now and I still don't think Live2Win is the one to lynch just yet
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If we try to find clues on the people in Alventenie's list, then we'll probably have a better chance of hitting mafia. I mean hell, if we just randomly pick someone from that list at this point it's a 50/50 chance. So while the clues against L2W seem obvious, let's also remember all the clues that led us to lynching townies and how obvious they seemed at the time. So even though I still suspect L2W, for now let's at least try to go by Alventenie's list. If not it'll kind of feel as though we just wasted a detective's life for nothing...
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EPT
