On June 15 2024 16:19 Trfel wrote:I'm actually pretty surprised to see that die_meatbaby voted for scott31337, even if only for 12 minutes. I'm not sure if that means anything, but it goes directly against everything die_meatbaby had previously said about scott31337.
Post-lynch, die_meatbaby says she's sorry for not believing in Vivax, and that she will find whoever is responsible for the Vivax lynch. But then she says that she'll take a closer look at scott31337 in response to AlphaZero's post. Seems.... off? If she's truly upset about the Vivax mislynch and wants to hold people accountable, wouldn't AlphaZero be one of the first places she'd look?
Note that I'm not blaming AlphaZero, everyone's wrong sometimes, and it's at least as much my fault as it is his. But if die_meatbaby
is looking for somewhere to put the blame, I wouldn't expect her to follow AlphaZero's read to suspect scott31337, who made it clear he didn't want to vote for Vivax.
I think die_meatbaby's alignment is key here. Before I screwed everything up, did we have a wagon on mafia/were mafia bussing?
+ Show Spoiler [inconclusive analysis] +Before I posted about shenanigans, the vote count was as follows:
die_meatbaby (7): Koshi, Trfel, Mocsta, scott31337, raynpelikoneet, AlphaZero,
VivaxAlphaZero (1): die_meatbaby
Mocsta (1): Alakaslam
If we assume for the moment that die_meatbaby is mafia, and therefore being bussed, someone in the middle of the votes on die_meatbaby would be the most likely candidate for a mafia partner. This person would also have to be someone who moved off of die_meatbaby easily, but perhaps not someone who was very forceful in moving off of die_meatbaby, if that makes sense? Like someone who is very willing, eager even, to move off of die_meatbaby, but didn't want to make a big deal about it to make it look bad if one of them flips. Is there anyone like that?
Scott31337 stayed on die_meatbaby, if they are mafia together then that means I managed to find almost the only way to screw that up, helping a bussed mafia survive a mislynch and even letting mafia stay on mafia for cred. This is a really depressing thought so I hope it's not true.
Alakaslam was on Mocsta, and never voted for die_meatbaby. Seems a bit risky for Alakaslam to not bus given the 7-1 vote count, but idk. Unlikely.
Raynpelikoneet does fit this description.
Mocsta was a bit vocal about not lynching die_meatbaby but I could see this being possible.
AlphaZero maybe fits this description as well.
Basically it's possible for die_meatbaby to be mafia here based on potential associations, which doesn't say much at all, but I figured it'd be worth a try. Grasping at straws.
Voting patterns are a bit weird for day 3, it was a complicated day. We had a lot of votes on Mocsta, then a lot of votes on AlphaZero, then a lot of votes on die_meatbaby, then eventually Vivax.
Come to think of it, there's another angle. If die_meatbaby is mafia, she has a mafia buddy, and she and her mafia buddy had to have been bussing mid to late day 2. Would die_meatbaby/raynpelikoneet or die_meatbaby/AlphaZero really bus there? Or even die_meatbaby/Mocsta? I feel like these people have enough influence that they'd be less inclined to bus, in all honesty. I think die_meatbaby/scott31337 going for a bus makes sense.
Once again assuming die_meatbaby is mafia:
Would AlphaZero have bussed? First thought is that he'd be the most likely of the three to have done so, since he hasn't had the activity to really get his own way. He voted for die_meatbaby late, and wasn't really talking about lynching die_meatbaby, he was discussing other options. I could see this being a bus, in theory.
Raynpelikoneet voted out of trust in Koshi. Theoretically I could see this being a bus I suppose.
So much for that idea, the candidates match. End result is that die_meatbaby could theoretically be mafia with scott31337, raynpelikoneet, AlphaZero, and maybe Mocsta. Which is enough people that it's not very indicative either way
Tried a bunch of shortcuts to see if I could get an easier read on die_meatbaby and they all failed. Guess I have to do it the hard way
I just don't really have any good ways to read die_meatbaby. But I also can't end up unsure, I think we really really need to figure this out. Is it possible to look somewhere else and come back to die_meatbaby later? Maybe it'll become more clear? From my perspective, it's either die_meatbaby and scott31337 or we have a very very serious problem. But if I had to guess I'd guess that we have a very serious problem.
When I look at die_meatbaby's filter, I see a lot of things I think are wrong. For example, there's the warning to Oatsmaster, there's complaining about other people being inactive, scumreading Mocsta seemingly before seeing that he wasn't the night kill, townreading scott31337 because he looks suspicious as town, etc. But does that mean anything? No one else has been very convinced by these arguments.
Well, I've got another little thing.
On June 13 2024 11:09 die_meatbaby wrote:On June 13 2024 11:02 Vivax wrote:On June 13 2024 10:58 die_meatbaby wrote:On June 13 2024 10:56 Vivax wrote:On June 13 2024 10:49 die_meatbaby wrote:On June 13 2024 10:42 Vivax wrote:On June 13 2024 10:40 die_meatbaby wrote:On June 13 2024 10:31 Vivax wrote:
[quote]
I find the people here disturbing so my posts are disturbed.
Like what do I need to talk with you about ? Do you need me to convince you that you are mafia ?
why not talk about it? are you scared that I can tell you why you are wrong or do you have actually not good reasons do read me as mafia?
Talk about what ? I am talking about it.
How am I supposed to explain to you that I am town if I don't even know why you think the opposite of me? In case you might be town, I would like to explain to you that I am town in order to win together. But if you don't want to, don't make a case of me and just vote me after the night phase without any real reason or explanation. It's totally normal what you do here...
You‘re town when you look for scum not when you ask for ways to be townread.
There‘s no hint that I wouldn‘t vote Az over you tomorrow so you could just decide for yourself if you want to do that rather than making me repeat why I think you‘re scum so you can convince me otherwise. I‘m not that important over what you can do yourself for that to matter.
Mafia fights as a team against individual townies. It is important to find townies and build a team to find and lynch them together
But you don‘t need me to necessarily townread you if you can post a convincing case for why someone is more likely mafia than you.
I am still try to figure out which one makes more sense az or mocstar both are scummy as hell for me.
On June 13 2024 11:35 die_meatbaby wrote:
I think I was maybe wrong with my scott read...
Note that until this point, die_meatbaby's read on scott31337 was town.
So if die_meatbaby is considering scott31337 as mafia, can she seriously consider AlphaZero being mafia? Of anyone in the game, I think those two would be the absolutely least likely to be mafia together. If she was more sure in scott31337 being mafia this would be more incriminating, as it is I don't think it's a big deal, but it is interesting that die_meatbaby didn't seem to follow up the questioning over scott31337's alignment. Even if she didn't consider it super urgent, if she's town, she ought to, no? Since it affects her decision between Mocsta and AlphaZero, which is what she was focusing on?
On June 15 2024 08:36 die_meatbaby wrote:On June 15 2024 08:30 Trfel wrote:On June 15 2024 08:18 die_meatbaby wrote:On June 15 2024 08:13 Trfel wrote:
Maybe I'm just stupid. I'd hate to get cold feet and miss out on lynching mafia for no reason, and it's possible die_meatbaby is mafia and took my hesitation as a chance to jump in and defend herself.
But also maybe not.
Someone else say something?
I'm really sorry that I wasn't as active here as usual. I still tried to do my best with an absolutely shitty time management. Also you were kinda tunneld on me but that happend to me often enough too.
Hm, I think you've had plenty of opportunities. I've reached out to you a ton. I wouldn't call that tunneled. More that there hasn't been much reason to think differently.
I'd lynch scott31337, I'd very likely lynch Vivax, I'd mayyyyyyyyyyyybbbbbbbbbbbeeeeeeeeeeeee lynch raynpelikoneet but probably not today.
I will filter scott fast again.
I am still to unsure of vivax and actually would prefer to lynch me for less activity then him, because if he is really town he could help you all later better then I could.
Rayn is always gets nk when he is town or at least in the last few games I have played with him. If he is not getting nk soon. He is maybe scum, but for now also not my prefered lynch
Also, what happened here? Die_meatbaby said she'd rather have herself be lynched than Vivax, but clearly she changed her mind? Looks like this happened due to AlphaZero's point about Vivax dumping his scumreads before getting mislynched last time and seemingly not doing so here.
I also have no clue why die_meatbaby unvoted from scott31337. Context shows that I said I preferred lynching Vivax to scott31337, then die_meatbaby votes for scott31337, then AlphaZero says he thinks Vivax is more likely mafia than scott31337, then AlphaZero votes for Vivax, raynpelikoneet follows and votes for Vivax, and then die_meatbaby unvotes. Huh? Just doesn't feel like a sensible reaction. My best guess is that die_meatbaby unvoted due to not thinking that scott31337 would be a viable wagon. In this case, however, she'd be choosing to vote between Vivax and AlphaZero, and while I can't say she didn't do this, she didn't mention considering the AlphaZero wagon at all. Feels like she unvoted scott31337 and then.... waited to go onto Vivax for some reason? It's hard for me to know if this makes sense from town or not.
For die_meatbaby to be town and do this, she'd have to be investigating scott31337's filter and not be sold on the Vivax lynch, then see support for the scott31337 wagon (that she was convinced enough on to vote for it) go away and then unvote without a new place to put the vote? If die_meatbaby is town and actually cared about scott31337 being lynched, I would have expected her to protest the wagon losing support, or at least leave her vote on it until she found something better, no? Why would she remove her vote when she doesn't seem very excited about any other option and there was no reason to go back on the read in the first place?
If that makes sense. It's another little thing that isn't super incriminating, but it's the best I've got.
ConclusionMore little things. Not sure if any of it makes die_meatbaby mafia, but here it is anyway.
1. Die_meatbaby post Vivax flip said she'd look into scott31337 again but also wanted to hold the people for lynching Vivax responsible (presumably including AlphaZero, who was the one she was responding to about looking into scott31337). This doesn't really make sense from the perspective of someone who knows that AlphaZero contributed significantly to lynching Vivax and also knows that scott31337 didn't do so. As in, if die_meatbaby is aware of these things, which she really ought to be, then I have a hard time seeing how both of these post-flip comments can be made from the same mindset.
2. Die_meatbaby didn't seem to try to figure out scott31337's alignment day 3, despite it being key to other reads she seemed much more interested in.
3. Unvote timing on scott31337 doesn't make much sense
EPT
