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On May 13 2024 05:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:
It was a hood shot, he would have most likely been lynched today.
In retrospect this was maybe too on the nose for scum to post this, but maybe that's post-flip hindsight speaking. Scum!Grackaroni would have known that I can't die last night. I think my logic was sound when I made the call, which was before I found that out myself after asking host in PM. So, my bad.
On May 12 2024 09:51 Grackaroni wrote:![[image loading]](https://i.ibb.co/G7M8HwL/RIP.png)
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On May 13 2024 05:39 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2024 05:27 Jealous wrote:On May 13 2024 05:03 scott31337 wrote:
Well there goes my case.
Jealous anything to report? Not at home so I will break my own self-rule of using only MS Paint but I got vigilante and I killed Grackaroni because he was basically the most suspected and had tried to shift the vote off of Oats. I figured worst case scenario we remove the unknown, but I really really wanted to N1 win the game after nailing Oats. Interestingly, this means that scum held their shot or didn't answer the PM, as there was only 1 NK. Or shot Grack also... ?
Good point, hadn't considered that. Crazy how complicated such a simple situation can be come.
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On May 13 2024 05:56 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2024 05:27 Jealous wrote:On May 13 2024 05:03 scott31337 wrote:
Well there goes my case.
Jealous anything to report? Not at home so I will break my own self-rule of using only MS Paint but I got vigilante and I killed Grackaroni because he was basically the most suspected and had tried to shift the vote off of Oats. I figured worst case scenario we remove the unknown, but I really really wanted to N1 win the game after nailing Oats. Interestingly, this means that scum held their shot or didn't answer the PM, as there was only 1 NK. If the player that wins this powerup is Town, they random one of the following:
Jailkeeper (You may roleblock and protect one person from KP. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Cop (You may choose a player to check their alignment. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Vigilante (You may shoot one person. You have only a single shot. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Vengeful Townie (Upon dying you have the opportunity to take revenge. You may designate one person to be shot. They will receive KP during the same phase in which you die.)
If the player that wins this powerup is Mafia, they random one of the following:
Frame (Once this game, you may target a player. The player will appear as the opposite alignment if checked by the cop. You may target yourself. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Mafia Vigilante (You may shoot one person. You have only a single shot. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Vengeful Mafia (Upon dying you have the opportunity to take revenge. You may designate one person to be shot. They will receive KP during the same phase in which you die.) Roleblocker (Next cycle, the townie's action will be roleblocked. They will not be notified of this.)
To me it makes almost ZERO sense that Jealous got the Mafia Vig role and only made ONE shot and it was Grack. So he's almost confirmed town to me. What Jealous says above makes sense. I got through more than half of rayn's filter and he's not the lynch for me today. Jealous is off the table also. Palmar - he votes Oats at 9:29 EDT - and did not post it in his filter - only the voting thread. He was the second vote on Oats. Four minutes left - " Show nested quote +On May 12 2024 04:56 Palmar wrote:
No I think I'll stick with Oats, I still really dislike his page 1 filter. I'll listen to reasoning, but... just doesn't make sense. Trfel was the first vote on Oats and he really seemed inquisitive on me - which is a good thing. That leaves Chezinu. He votes for Oats at 14:24 EDT. Only posts in the voting thread. His next message is a copy and paste of Jealous's case 14 minutes later. I may suspect Chezinu knows Oats is toast and tries to look his best. So I'm voting for him. ##Vote Chezinu
FWiW I don't mean to gild the lilly here but you were the first to vote for Oats, took it back, then I was the first vote that stuck on him; it just didn't get counted until later.
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On May 13 2024 08:26 Palmar wrote:
Can someone do the role analysis and post it so it makes sense. I’m too stupid to figure it out.
This is what I was going to write for Scott but I figured it didn't need to be said so I saved it in case someone had a question like yours:
Show nested quote +On May 13 2024 06:07 scott31337 wrote:
Now Jealous could've lied, is the mafia - got a non vig role like Framer - used it on himself - and shot Grack and made up the whole vig story. That's a STRETCH, but a possibility. Again, don't want to gild the lily, but for me to be scum I would have to: 1. Coordinate with Oats so that he would call me out. 2. Be one of the first votes on him and bus him and keep that vote there. 3. Kill one of the most-suspected townies in the game instead of someone less divisive. 4. And do what you said above. Like, yea I guess it's theoretically possible if you think very highly of me, but realistically I think I am objectively the most confirmed town here. Only reason I harp on this is because you brought it up and I think we should focus on exposing scum. To your credit, you did do that with the Chezinu case and so did rayn and there is only 1 scum left so it's not possible for y'all to be in cahoots. But, I guess my question is: if not Chez, then who? I guess Palmar based on earlier posts?
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PS: Sorry Grack. I must have misread you pretty badly.
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On May 13 2024 05:59 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2024 05:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:On May 13 2024 05:39 scott31337 wrote:On May 13 2024 05:27 Jealous wrote:On May 13 2024 05:03 scott31337 wrote:
Well there goes my case.
Jealous anything to report? Not at home so I will break my own self-rule of using only MS Paint but I got vigilante and I killed Grackaroni because he was basically the most suspected and had tried to shift the vote off of Oats. I figured worst case scenario we remove the unknown, but I really really wanted to N1 win the game after nailing Oats. Interestingly, this means that scum held their shot or didn't answer the PM, as there was only 1 NK. Or shot Grack also... ? If that is the case then mafia is definitely Chezinu. There is no way Palmar shoots Grackaroni after basically commiting himself onto lynching Grackaroni regardless of Oats flip. Oats only basically tried to muddy the waters with you and Jealous, so that (amongst other things) i think makes you both town. Both me and Trfel had actual thread presence to change the lynch at any point. Trfel did nothing of that sort, and when there were 3 votes on Oats, i instead decided to make Chezinu commit to his read and told i am gonna vote for Oats most likely. I would not do that as mafia, because for me / Trfel there would have been options to take another route going late D1. And I had a prewritten case for Grack D2 ready to go and a vote with it. He def could've been the lynch today.
Actually I think it would make sense for you to share this case, just for transparency. You already wrote it, so why not?
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The crazy thing is at least one of you has to be town, it could easily be both, and at most one of your targets is scum, and both of you made such compelling arguments. I am too tired to paint or decide which makes more sense, but I will be back tomorrow. Props to both of y'all.
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On May 13 2024 13:16 Trfel wrote:
I really think it's almost certainly Jealous or a Chezinu who didn't submit a night kill.
And one of us showed up and made up a reason for why they did make the NK as town and the other is just not bothering to counter?
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On May 13 2024 16:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2024 16:38 Jealous wrote:
The crazy thing is at least one of you has to be town, it could easily be both, and at most one of your targets is scum, and both of you made such compelling arguments. I am too tired to paint or decide which makes more sense, but I will be back tomorrow. Props to both of y'all. Wait who? Me and Trfel? Why is Trfel's argument compelling to you?
A more elaborated version of Scott's but also sufficiently different so as to not make me think that Trfel just copied Scott's homework, also seemingly written in ignorance of him having posted it. I believe it, so I'm referring to Trfel pointing out Chezinu and you pointing out Palmar. Between the two posters and the two targets, there can only be one scum, and only one scum on either side, is kinda what I was getting at.
Scott is already a TR for me.
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On May 13 2024 16:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2024 16:43 Jealous wrote:On May 13 2024 13:16 Trfel wrote:
I really think it's almost certainly Jealous or a Chezinu who didn't submit a night kill. And one of us showed up and made up a reason for why they did make the NK as town and the other is just not bothering to counter? Truth to be told there IS a reason why you would do what you did as mafia. You don't want to make 2 night kills instead of one, because MYLO is better than LYLO as there is more targets to lynch alive. It's an argument to make tbh. It's however not an argument to make, because basically lying in any other way is more beneficial for you as mafia lol. 
Yea, kinda my point, on top of the bussing.
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On May 13 2024 16:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yes, we already know whoever is mafia WAS bussing Oats.
Only one person has first vote (though cancelled) and only one person voted after it was cancelled and stuck with it. Scott and myself. Either I'm scum or scott is scum or neither is scum and I think that Ockham's would dictate that it is the last of these options that makes the most sense. Both other options would necessitate one of us being the first to vote and be bussing. So, when looking at who is bussing, it has to be someone who voted after myself and Scott unless Scott bussed and got cold feet on no push-back (IIRC) or I saw a wagon start and die and decide that "now is the time to bus my partner Oats who publicly called me out so I get town cred."
Starting a town circle knowing that I am town and there is sufficient evidence that someone else is town feels like the logical play here for town, knowing that scum is alone and cannot collude with someone.
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On May 13 2024 16:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2024 16:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yes, we already know whoever is mafia WAS bussing Oats. That's why i made the post where i tried to make my point clear that i think there was no reason for anyone other than Chezinu or Palmar to do that, because they could have better options to handle D1.
Following you so far, I just am hard-pressed to make a decision between which is more likely right now.
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On May 13 2024 17:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I personally dont know why Trfel has to make that case on you if he is mafia?
He can probably just ride with Palmar or Chezinu and be good with it without too much hassle.
Especially since he would have to KNOW he is lying in making a case on you here, and i know i at least am notorious of changing my mind really fast if i see something that is bullshit. If i decided that Trfel made a big bullshit case on you, you would probably be on board as well. Is it a good idea to do that, when you have easier options?
Not saying Trfel is 100% town for making a bad case, just saying i think it is most likely a case made by a townie, based on his MO.
Feels that way at the moment, for sure. I am more inclined to believe one of Chezinu/Palmar is scum than you/Trfel at the moment. I was just stating the deductive facts of the situation, but you did definitely summarize the situation in a palatable way that helps me see things your way. Willing to sheep, but will review with a clearer head tomorrow after some sleep. (4:30 AM ET rn).
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On May 13 2024 21:36 Palmar wrote:
This is absolutely awesome but unfortunately also puts us in a difficult position as town... Palmar is probably going to get the special role based on this MS Paint, and he is one of the most-suspected people right now, so if he is in fact scum it would be pretty fucking bad for town.
On the other hand, he was the 3rd vote on Oats and it stuck, I'm finding it hard to believe that he would bus that early. Chezinu appears later on the list when the writing is basically already on the wall. I think it's more likely that Chezinu bussed than Palmar, objectively speaking. So, I think the best way to resolve this would be to vote Chezinu and wait to see what Palmar does with the role if he does get it. Should help resolve the situation a little more.
##vote Chezinu
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/93QkiHQ.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/znoLdhO.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/DmiyFcK.png)
