|
On March 09 2024 07:17 Oatsmaster wrote: I don’t think it’s really unluckiest town in the world that I got framed when the cop was 100% outing what targets he was gonna check lol Well yeah, because then we're unlucky our cop is a moron.
|
idk why DP claimed the gun though, he's going to get roleblocked so hard.
|
But yeah, I simply cannot worry about the worst case scenario (Framer) because if you lose to a successful frame there really isn't much to be done.
All the other scenarios ranging from salvage-able to great
Oats is mafia: great Slam is mafia: good, 1 for 1 is acceptable Oats is miller: salvageable, at least slam gets confirmed
And mafia needs to shoot slam, so Vivax can play mind games whether or not to jail slam in that last scenario. Mafia can't just RB slam, because they need to RB DP if DP is town which I think is the case.
|
On March 09 2024 07:25 Oatsmaster wrote:Hey look Palmar Sandro thought i was town too. Just like for your records Yeah I know
I'm like this close to saying fuck math and changing my opinion.
But you did make a case on me, which looks bad for you. Not sure I should blame you for that though.
Like I'm almost tempted to just fucking lynch slam lol
|
Would be a good policy lynch, because he claimed day 1.
Problem is slam is chaotic enough to do this bullshit as either alignment. he doesn't actually play with any kind of logic.
|
As much as I actually can't explain VE's lack of enthusiasm with anything other than him being mafia, I think we NEED to resolve this situation at some point between the red check and slam, and better now than in lylo.
That's another concern of mine. if we just lynch VE, maybe he flips red, maybe he's just lazy and flips green, and we go into the next day just as blind as we did this one, with possibly less mislynches left.
|
MZ doesn't look great in our topic.
But to be fair, neither do I cause I don't talk to him.
|
Like I think you've done everything right if you're town Oats, and if you're mafia massive kudos for wool stuff. I am NEVER lynching you here without a red check.
I'll stick around for a little bit while doing other stuff, but I'm just not confident enough in my reads to actually move somewhere else. I think.
|
On March 09 2024 07:31 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:On March 09 2024 07:16 Oatsmaster wrote: Frame math: Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad… Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened. So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me. Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM. Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed. Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists I mean slam could also just be lying and he's mafia happily going 1 for 1, we already have a ton of blue roles running around. But the math isn't bad. You have to consider the possibility of "Oats gets framed, Slam checks marv" or something. From my vantage point that is an entirely plausible scenario, because I cannot control Slam. This is btw why framer is a terrible role. It's so useless like 99% of the time and randomly swings 1% of games way out of whack. It really shouldn't exist. He says he cannot read me. Look at this, marv was my 4th consideration of 4- but still, it was someone I considered. 3 was a total seekrit
Harumph
|
On March 09 2024 07:48 Koshi wrote: I think if Oats flips town marv is mafia over Palmar tbh. But maybe I am just angry he is voting his townread. To be fair I'm voting a townread Oats as well
|
|
On March 09 2024 07:52 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 07:50 Palmar wrote:On March 09 2024 07:48 Koshi wrote: I think if Oats flips town marv is mafia over Palmar tbh. But maybe I am just angry he is voting his townread. To be fair I'm voting a townread Oats as well I hold marv in the highest esteems haha
|
It's 10v4 now with copcake doing some dumbassery on the sidelines.
|
On March 07 2024 11:27 VisceraEyes wrote: Mafia inside Marv/Oats/Jake/Cake and mix in a couple of hiding lurkers. Dealers choice. I think the game ends in town victory, even if you lot lynch me tomorrow.
I'm sorry I couldn't give this game the time it deserves, my weekend starts tomorrow so I'll at least fight my lynch if I live the night.
Good luck urybody.
|
On March 09 2024 07:54 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 07:53 Palmar wrote: It's 10v4 now with copcake doing some dumbassery on the sidelines. It literally says 5 mafia in OP bro. Dont try your fake ass dumbtell twice. I'm talking about the votes
10 on Oats 4 on VE
|
Oh wait I'm not actually voting
|
|
So Koshi is probably lock town for his towncase on Oats on day 1.
Guy made a towncase on mafia and attacked me for maybe thinking Oats is scum.
|
Voting results make VE kinda likely to be mafia too
|
On March 09 2024 16:38 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 06:18 Palmar wrote: I read like 2 posts of Oats and he's scummy Palmar, this was right near the start. What had pinged you? Genuinely curious here. It was the fact he said he wanted to be mayor. But then never really did anything to convince people he should be. Instead all his following posts were stupid questions and passive posts.
I then let his reasonableness in the face of dumbassery on part of other people convince me he was town.
|
|
|
|