• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 11:47
CEST 17:47
KST 00:47
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Siren's Call8[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Summer's End9Serral wins HomeStory Cup 2915Serral wins Maestros of the Game 244ByuL, and the Limitations of Standard Play3
Community News
New 3v3 BGH Ladder (and more) on ShieldBattery!32Weekly Cups (August 17-23): Zerg dominate the week6Weekly Cups (August 10-16): SHIN doubles2GSTL Returns in 2026!45Weekly Cups (Aug 3-9): Protoss get shut out7
StarCraft 2
General
Weekly Cups (August 17-23): Zerg dominate the week SC4ALL II: SC2 Player Announcement 6/8 - Maru Daily SC2 Player Grid - feedback wanted Balance hotfix patch 5.0.16b (July 16) How would you feel about frequent/monthly balance patches for SC2?
Tourneys
Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament 2026 GSTL Announcement IntoTheTV X SOOP SC2 League : Weekly & Monthly PIG STY FESTIVAL 8.0! (13 - 23 August) WORTEX 2026 - Hungarian SC2 Finals Budapest
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
Nexus Wars 2021 GUIDE [M] (2) Industrial Park
External Content
Mutation # 540 Dodge This The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 539 Thunder Dome Mutation # 538 Media Blackout
Brood War
General
Pros React To: Calm's Big Brain Play Vs Mini [Personal Project Share] Terran Defense v0.60 !!!NEW BUG!!! FIRE ARCHONS [Visual] New 3v3 BGH Ladder (and more) on ShieldBattery! BW General Discussion
Tourneys
[ASL22] Ro24 Group F BSL LAN Party - Kraków 29-30 August - OPEN SIGNUPS [Megathread] Daily Proleagues Escore Tournament - Season 3
Strategy
Replay Review Process - What do you do? Game Theory for Starcraft Odyssey Mineral Stack Saturation Fighting Spirit mining rates
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread General RTS Discussion Thread Nintendo Switch Thread Anyone here play Quakeworld back in the day? EVE Corporation
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish TSM pausing esports and CLG Dead
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Power Rank TL Mafia Community Thread NeO.D_StephenKing vs This Guy From 1 Million Dance
Community
General
The Letting Off Steam Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Artificial Intelligence Thread
Fan Clubs
MarineLorD Fan Club The Creator Fan Club The ShoWTimE Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! Anime Discussion Thread
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 MLB/Baseball 2023 NBA General Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List Northern Ireland Global Starcraft
Blogs
Violent Games and Crime Rate…
TrAiDoS
LOCKPICKING NOOB
LUCKY_NOOB
Cathedral Of CS And NY pizza a…
FuDDx
Please support my new stand…
Peanutsc
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 8878 users

A Classy Game of Mafia - Page 12

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Prev 1 10 11 12 13 14 31 Next All
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:21 GMT
#5015
On March 09 2024 07:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
I don’t think it’s really unluckiest town in the world that I got framed when the cop was 100% outing what targets he was gonna check lol

Well yeah, because then we're unlucky our cop is a moron.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:22 GMT
#5016
idk why DP claimed the gun though, he's going to get roleblocked so hard.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:26 GMT
#5018
But yeah, I simply cannot worry about the worst case scenario (Framer) because if you lose to a successful frame there really isn't much to be done.

All the other scenarios ranging from salvage-able to great

Oats is mafia: great
Slam is mafia: good, 1 for 1 is acceptable
Oats is miller: salvageable, at least slam gets confirmed

And mafia needs to shoot slam, so Vivax can play mind games whether or not to jail slam in that last scenario. Mafia can't just RB slam, because they need to RB DP if DP is town which I think is the case.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:27 GMT
#5019
On March 09 2024 07:25 Oatsmaster wrote:
Hey look Palmar Sandro thought i was town too.
Just like for your records
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2024 11:00 sandroba wrote:
oats is very townie imo


Yeah I know

I'm like this close to saying fuck math and changing my opinion.

But you did make a case on me, which looks bad for you. Not sure I should blame you for that though.

Like I'm almost tempted to just fucking lynch slam lol
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:28 GMT
#5021
Would be a good policy lynch, because he claimed day 1.

Problem is slam is chaotic enough to do this bullshit as either alignment. he doesn't actually play with any kind of logic.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:29 GMT
#5022
As much as I actually can't explain VE's lack of enthusiasm with anything other than him being mafia, I think we NEED to resolve this situation at some point between the red check and slam, and better now than in lylo.

That's another concern of mine. if we just lynch VE, maybe he flips red, maybe he's just lazy and flips green, and we go into the next day just as blind as we did this one, with possibly less mislynches left.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:30 GMT
#5023
MZ doesn't look great in our topic.

But to be fair, neither do I cause I don't talk to him.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:32 GMT
#5025
Like I think you've done everything right if you're town Oats, and if you're mafia massive kudos for wool stuff. I am NEVER lynching you here without a red check.

I'll stick around for a little bit while doing other stuff, but I'm just not confident enough in my reads to actually move somewhere else. I think.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:32 GMT
#5026
On March 09 2024 07:31 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:16 Oatsmaster wrote:

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.

I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad…

Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened.

So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me.
Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM.
Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed.

Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists


I mean slam could also just be lying and he's mafia happily going 1 for 1, we already have a ton of blue roles running around.

But the math isn't bad. You have to consider the possibility of "Oats gets framed, Slam checks marv" or something. From my vantage point that is an entirely plausible scenario, because I cannot control Slam.

This is btw why framer is a terrible role. It's so useless like 99% of the time and randomly swings 1% of games way out of whack. It really shouldn't exist.

He says he cannot read me.

Look at this, marv was my 4th consideration of 4- but still, it was someone I considered.

3 was a total seekrit


Harumph
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:50 GMT
#5058
On March 09 2024 07:48 Koshi wrote:
I think if Oats flips town marv is mafia over Palmar tbh. But maybe I am just angry he is voting his townread.

To be fair I'm voting a townread Oats as well
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:51 GMT
#5059
Koshi is right btw slam.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:52 GMT
#5062
On March 09 2024 07:52 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:50 Palmar wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:48 Koshi wrote:
I think if Oats flips town marv is mafia over Palmar tbh. But maybe I am just angry he is voting his townread.

To be fair I'm voting a townread Oats as well

I hold marv in the highest esteems

haha
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:53 GMT
#5063
It's 10v4 now with copcake doing some dumbassery on the sidelines.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:54 GMT
#5065
On March 07 2024 11:27 VisceraEyes wrote:
Mafia inside Marv/Oats/Jake/Cake and mix in a couple of hiding lurkers. Dealers choice. I think the game ends in town victory, even if you lot lynch me tomorrow.

I'm sorry I couldn't give this game the time it deserves, my weekend starts tomorrow so I'll at least fight my lynch if I live the night.

Good luck urybody.

Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:54 GMT
#5067
On March 09 2024 07:54 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:53 Palmar wrote:
It's 10v4 now with copcake doing some dumbassery on the sidelines.

It literally says 5 mafia in OP bro.
Dont try your fake ass dumbtell twice.

I'm talking about the votes

10 on Oats
4 on VE
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:55 GMT
#5068
Oh wait I'm not actually voting
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 08 2024 22:56 GMT
#5071
Anyway, good night boys
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 09 2024 07:35 GMT
#5445
So Koshi is probably lock town for his towncase on Oats on day 1.

Guy made a towncase on mafia and attacked me for maybe thinking Oats is scum.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 09 2024 07:36 GMT
#5446
Voting results make VE kinda likely to be mafia too
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22634 Posts
March 09 2024 07:41 GMT
#5449
On March 09 2024 16:38 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2024 06:18 Palmar wrote:
I read like 2 posts of Oats and he's scummy

Palmar, this was right near the start. What had pinged you? Genuinely curious here.

It was the fact he said he wanted to be mayor. But then never really did anything to convince people he should be. Instead all his following posts were stupid questions and passive posts.

I then let his reasonableness in the face of dumbassery on part of other people convince me he was town.
Computer says mafia
Prev 1 10 11 12 13 14 31 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 1h 13m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
BRAT_OK 49
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 51830
Soulkey 1077
Jaedong 1007
Shuttle 837
BeSt 425
ZZZero.O 150
Killer 136
firebathero 136
Mong 106
Pusan 57
[ Show more ]
Liquid`Ret 56
Mind 49
Barracks 46
hero 46
Sexy 45
ToSsGirL 28
soO 26
Hm[arnc] 20
sorry 17
Sacsri 16
Rock 16
Bale 15
Shine 14
SilentControl 12
NaDa 12
scan(afreeca) 7
Dota 2
Gorgc5223
qojqva3068
Dendi1876
syndereN327
Counter-Strike
fl0m3808
nookyyy 57
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor280
Other Games
singsing1869
Beastyqt550
Mlord422
FrodaN283
Hui .209
DeMusliM129
elazer112
crisheroes103
Mew2King85
KnowMe56
Chillindude26
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick3039
EGCTV693
StarCraft 2
IntoTheiNu 623
WardiTV80
[ Show 18 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Berry_CruncH399
• CranKy Ducklings SOOP84
• Shameless 55
• poizon28 32
• Response 3
• mYiSmile10
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• Michael_bg 11
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• WagamamaTV739
League of Legends
• Jankos1699
Other Games
• Shiphtur144
Upcoming Events
AI Arena Tournament
1h 13m
Replay Cast
8h 13m
WardiTV Weekly
19h 13m
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1d 18h
Afreeca Starleague
1d 18h
Monday Night Weeklies
2 days
GSL
2 days
PiGosaur Cup
3 days
Replay Cast
4 days
The PondCast
4 days
[ Show More ]
IntoTheTV X SOOP
5 days
CranKy Ducklings
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-08-27
PiG Sty Festival 8.0
Light Tournament 2026

Ongoing

KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 3
K-JUNGMAN
ASL Season 22
Super Anchor Qualifying S3
CSL Season 22: Qualifier 2
BSL 2026 LAN: Kraków
RSL Revival: Season 6
Big Dog Cup 2026 Div 1
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
Esports World Cup 2026: LCQ
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
IEM Cologne Major 2026

Upcoming

CSL 2026 AUTUMN (S22)
Escore Tournament S3: King of Kings
Acropolis #5
Acropolis #5 - TRS
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Acropolis #5 - GSA
Acropolis #5 - GSB
HSC XXX
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
Calamity Invitational
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.