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A Classy Game of Mafia - Page 12

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:21 GMT
#5015
On March 09 2024 07:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
I don’t think it’s really unluckiest town in the world that I got framed when the cop was 100% outing what targets he was gonna check lol

Well yeah, because then we're unlucky our cop is a moron.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:22 GMT
#5016
idk why DP claimed the gun though, he's going to get roleblocked so hard.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:26 GMT
#5018
But yeah, I simply cannot worry about the worst case scenario (Framer) because if you lose to a successful frame there really isn't much to be done.

All the other scenarios ranging from salvage-able to great

Oats is mafia: great
Slam is mafia: good, 1 for 1 is acceptable
Oats is miller: salvageable, at least slam gets confirmed

And mafia needs to shoot slam, so Vivax can play mind games whether or not to jail slam in that last scenario. Mafia can't just RB slam, because they need to RB DP if DP is town which I think is the case.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:27 GMT
#5019
On March 09 2024 07:25 Oatsmaster wrote:
Hey look Palmar Sandro thought i was town too.
Just like for your records
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2024 11:00 sandroba wrote:
oats is very townie imo


Yeah I know

I'm like this close to saying fuck math and changing my opinion.

But you did make a case on me, which looks bad for you. Not sure I should blame you for that though.

Like I'm almost tempted to just fucking lynch slam lol
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:28 GMT
#5021
Would be a good policy lynch, because he claimed day 1.

Problem is slam is chaotic enough to do this bullshit as either alignment. he doesn't actually play with any kind of logic.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:29 GMT
#5022
As much as I actually can't explain VE's lack of enthusiasm with anything other than him being mafia, I think we NEED to resolve this situation at some point between the red check and slam, and better now than in lylo.

That's another concern of mine. if we just lynch VE, maybe he flips red, maybe he's just lazy and flips green, and we go into the next day just as blind as we did this one, with possibly less mislynches left.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:30 GMT
#5023
MZ doesn't look great in our topic.

But to be fair, neither do I cause I don't talk to him.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:32 GMT
#5025
Like I think you've done everything right if you're town Oats, and if you're mafia massive kudos for wool stuff. I am NEVER lynching you here without a red check.

I'll stick around for a little bit while doing other stuff, but I'm just not confident enough in my reads to actually move somewhere else. I think.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:32 GMT
#5026
On March 09 2024 07:31 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:16 Oatsmaster wrote:

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.

I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad…

Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened.

So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me.
Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM.
Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed.

Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists


I mean slam could also just be lying and he's mafia happily going 1 for 1, we already have a ton of blue roles running around.

But the math isn't bad. You have to consider the possibility of "Oats gets framed, Slam checks marv" or something. From my vantage point that is an entirely plausible scenario, because I cannot control Slam.

This is btw why framer is a terrible role. It's so useless like 99% of the time and randomly swings 1% of games way out of whack. It really shouldn't exist.

He says he cannot read me.

Look at this, marv was my 4th consideration of 4- but still, it was someone I considered.

3 was a total seekrit


Harumph
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:50 GMT
#5058
On March 09 2024 07:48 Koshi wrote:
I think if Oats flips town marv is mafia over Palmar tbh. But maybe I am just angry he is voting his townread.

To be fair I'm voting a townread Oats as well
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:51 GMT
#5059
Koshi is right btw slam.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:52 GMT
#5062
On March 09 2024 07:52 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:50 Palmar wrote:
On March 09 2024 07:48 Koshi wrote:
I think if Oats flips town marv is mafia over Palmar tbh. But maybe I am just angry he is voting his townread.

To be fair I'm voting a townread Oats as well

I hold marv in the highest esteems

haha
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:53 GMT
#5063
It's 10v4 now with copcake doing some dumbassery on the sidelines.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:54 GMT
#5065
On March 07 2024 11:27 VisceraEyes wrote:
Mafia inside Marv/Oats/Jake/Cake and mix in a couple of hiding lurkers. Dealers choice. I think the game ends in town victory, even if you lot lynch me tomorrow.

I'm sorry I couldn't give this game the time it deserves, my weekend starts tomorrow so I'll at least fight my lynch if I live the night.

Good luck urybody.

Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:54 GMT
#5067
On March 09 2024 07:54 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:53 Palmar wrote:
It's 10v4 now with copcake doing some dumbassery on the sidelines.

It literally says 5 mafia in OP bro.
Dont try your fake ass dumbtell twice.

I'm talking about the votes

10 on Oats
4 on VE
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:55 GMT
#5068
Oh wait I'm not actually voting
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 08 2024 22:56 GMT
#5071
Anyway, good night boys
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 09 2024 07:35 GMT
#5445
So Koshi is probably lock town for his towncase on Oats on day 1.

Guy made a towncase on mafia and attacked me for maybe thinking Oats is scum.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 09 2024 07:36 GMT
#5446
Voting results make VE kinda likely to be mafia too
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
March 09 2024 07:41 GMT
#5449
On March 09 2024 16:38 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2024 06:18 Palmar wrote:
I read like 2 posts of Oats and he's scummy

Palmar, this was right near the start. What had pinged you? Genuinely curious here.

It was the fact he said he wanted to be mayor. But then never really did anything to convince people he should be. Instead all his following posts were stupid questions and passive posts.

I then let his reasonableness in the face of dumbassery on part of other people convince me he was town.
Computer says mafia
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