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Winter Warfare Mafia - Page 11

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 14:52 GMT
#2417
I’m not necessarily convinced rayn has to be mafia. It’s really just process of elimination + what I wrote above. But I feel like I need an actual read on him today and the earlier the bettter so I can move on if appropriate
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 16:18 GMT
#2421
On December 17 2023 00:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 16 2023 23:19 Palmar wrote:
Compare that to koshi who in far less posts made much more (to me) impactful contributions.

I also honestly dont believe this.

I guess i should read his filter more closely a he is dead, but still.

I felt his reads were clear and sensible pretty much the entire game.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 16:24 GMT
#2422
On December 16 2023 23:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 16 2023 23:33 Palmar wrote:
Rayn, I’m not going to read your entire filter because I don’t hate myself. But I did open it and read from the bottom up. I can’t remember if this is something you normally do but you’re spending almost no effort on forming town reads. The best I could find was like “maybe marv is just town” and something like that.

Like have you at any point in this game tried to argue that someone is town?

Do youthink that's something that makes me mafia?
I mean like its probably the easiest thing to do as mafia, call townies town for correct reasons. I also heavily abuse that fact as mafia.

I dont care if you do associative reads or not.
I find it suspicious that the people who i sm literally the least likely to be mafia with ate the ones you geoup with me being mafia with snd just sit on that.

Also i disagree that i had no influence on the game. Its true i have not been as active as usual. But i was a key factor to almost change the lynch from Vivax to sandroba D1, and i also believe i was one of the key votes to lynch Chezinu.


In order cause phoneposting.

Not necessarily but it’s different from what I do. I said I can’t remember if it’s normal for you.

Again, I don’t think this way. Maybe I’m wrong on something. Maybe mafia is playing lone wolf. I just don’t care at all who is likely to be mafia with who. It has no impact on how I think about any game.

You HAVE been active. You have one of the longest filters in the game. You just haven’t been influential.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 16:24 GMT
#2423
As town I generally hand out town read all the time to simplify the game.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 16:28 GMT
#2424
Like you point to some votes you places. But whose else vote did you place? Who did you convince of something? Can you point to a single instance where someone did something (make a town read or scum read or cast a vote or rescind a vote or something) because of you convinced them to do it?
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 16:39 GMT
#2425
Man this Pálmar guy is playing incredibly towny today. Very impressive.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 17:03 GMT
#2427
So I did a thing and read a bunch of Trfel

His filter is actually pretty good and I’m completely taking him off the table for today’s lynch.

Problem is he’s probably the scariest mafia player here. But that’s tinfoil territory.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 17:05 GMT
#2428
Rayn I need you to do two things

a) I have assigned you a townread on me. I need you now to explain why you think I’m town

b) you can pick one of of Sandroba/hf and explain to me why they’re mafia.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 17:18 GMT
#2430
Now I need to go find out why Sandroba thinks Trfel is mafia because I liked most of Trfel's filter.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 18:50 GMT
#2435
On December 17 2023 03:26 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote:
Palmar

I should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point.

+ Show Spoiler [analysis] +
It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster.
On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 11 2023 23:52 sandroba wrote:
On December 11 2023 22:47 Vivax wrote:
There's nothing exonerating Sandro in his filter.
It's mostly just generic reasons to call me mafia and he can't even find the text pieces to prove what he's saying. I've been far from a blend-in playstyle.

This post here also shows a mafia mindset, not arguing against the substance of what I'm saying, which is that his first post he did not read the thread and tried to reach a conclusion about my alignment, but instead he followed thread sentiment and quoted I few things from my post to appear to be contributing.

In the post above he dismisses it as generic and quibbles about me not finding text pieces, which is classic mafia sentiment for "you are accusing me for the wrong reasons"

This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it.

Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case".

This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town.

But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today.
Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this.

This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though.

On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote:
Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch.
Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh.
On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote:
Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm

Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy

HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think

Then we have slam and chez
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all.
On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote:
My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.

If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game.
Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness).
On December 14 2023 02:53 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 14 2023 02:48 Trfel wrote:
I'm just going to vote for Chezinu, I think he is just mafia. We had a game in the past where we were town together and talked quite a bit, and a game in the past where we were scum together, in fact I think maybe two games, and his effort and engagement with the game feel very scummy. He's capable of much more as town, we all know this. You shouldn't have to beg him to interact with the game. He's even made plenty of posts, the time is there, the desire to do anything about solving the game is not.

##vote Chezinu

The house of brown has found it time to end your mafia-ness.

Scummy
Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk.

Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game.

I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing.
On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 14 2023 23:37 sandroba wrote:
I don't think I'll be able to convince anyone Palmar is mafia today due to how much people already suspect me. I'd be down to lynch DMB/Chezinu.
To anyone who is town: Please let's rally and find a good lynch today. Don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me and be in the same spot tomorrow with DMB and Chezinu alive, being convinced by Palmar and his cheerleader they were just wrong and now we must lynch Trfel or w/e.

The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare.

You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me".

Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now?
Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid.
On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote:
stay safe Marv

This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.

How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this.
On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Day Two Vote Count

Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2): marvellosity, Koshi, Palmar, Holyflare, Holyflare
Trfel (1): sandroba, Holyflare, Chezinu, Alakaslam
die_meatbaby (0): sandroba
Palmar (0): sandroba

Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby

With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!

The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in

Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated.
On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote:
I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.

Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.

Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.

It's largely an emotional read on sandro.
Okay I just really don't get it.
On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote:
My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows.
But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in?
On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote:
Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further.
Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam.


No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out.
1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect.
2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.

In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others.
Palmar, do you have any thoughts on point (1) above? Something I am missing or not understanding maybe?


No not really. Slam is a troll player who did some things that I thought might be townie.

Day 1: slam does something townie so he gets a pass
N1/D2: slam does very little I think is townie, so my townread fades a little
N2/D3: slam helped kill mafia, so he renews his pass

I would still fully support a vigilante killing him. He is very difficult to read and because he doesn't really play the game it's hard to figure out his alignment.

But what little I can divine into his alignment leads me to think that he's more likely to be town than not.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 21:38 GMT
#2449
On December 17 2023 04:25 sandroba wrote:
Marv, if palmar is town why not leave Koshi alive and kill you?
Consider the wifom case:
What combo of players would ever benefit from killing Koshi instead of you if Palmar is town?

Bro if I'm mafia I'm 100% killing koshi and not marv.

marv is literally hard defending me all game.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 23:53 GMT
#2452
yes, but it's late so not for long.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 23:54 GMT
#2453
Sandroba is just mad that I trolled him in the mason topic.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 16 2023 23:59 GMT
#2455
On December 17 2023 08:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Can you Palmar tell me, if i am to flip mafia here, how are you going to go for the next day?
How do you reason either sandroba or Holyflare being mafia?


Again, I don't do associative reads and I don't care what deaf mafia say.

Do you agree with my townreads? (dmb, trfel, slam)
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 17 2023 00:21 GMT
#2460
On December 17 2023 09:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The only reason why i see something can't make sense to you is because you think about "what is the mafia team" besides the players who seem scummy to you. Otherwise you shouldn't have any problem on why the game doesn't make any sense.


The list posts don't reflect who I think is a "mafia team"

It reflects who I think is most likely to flip mafia.

I am also not all that confused anymore. Throw in that I refuse to consider marv as he's permanent null and I'm really down to like 3 people.

Obviously AT LEAST one of them is town.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 17 2023 00:22 GMT
#2461
On December 17 2023 09:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why are you so confused if ray / sandroba is mafia?
If we are both individually scummy (as you seem to be saying), why are you confused about what the stance of the game is?

Isn't it simple, rayn and sandroba are mafia?


No, that's not what I said.

I can only lynch one person today. I intend to lynch whoever is the scummiest, which is why I'm trying to get shit out of you guys.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 17 2023 00:22 GMT
#2462
On December 17 2023 09:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yes i agree with those reads.

What's your read on marv then?
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 17 2023 00:28 GMT
#2465
So... your lynch pool is literally exactly the same as mine except for us 2? We see the game state to be exactly the same thing except you think I could be mafia, and I think you could be. Throw in that marv, who is both very good at this game AND knows me very well is pretty insistent on me being town...

If we just make a truce for the moment, who do you think is more likely to flip mafia, HF or sandroba?
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 17 2023 00:33 GMT
#2468
HF and sandroba are the players currently trying to lynch me.

I can... kinda accept why sandroba wants to lynch me. I absolutely did troll the fuck out of him in that mason topic because I'm a bit of a dick.

But also, I don't think the mason topics are useful, I said as much on day 1. Why wouldn't I just post in the thread. I'm not entirely sure if it's genuine frustration with my dickery, or if it's just an excuse to scumread me.

HF on the other hand hasn't really given me much.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
December 17 2023 00:34 GMT
#2470
Also, marv not wanting to lynch sandroba makes that one a little more complex. But I can't say I'm very impressed with what he has posted today or during the night phase.
Computer says mafia
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