Quarterly Mafia 1 - part 2 - Page 11

On September 01 2023 22:45 DarthPunk wrote:


There would also have been more mocking how shit mafia are playing and how shit the townies we mislynched were to allow themselves to be mislynched.

On September 02 2023 18:14 DarthPunk wrote:
It’s really hard to do anything else right now with the activity of the town.

If the scum is not who we think we are really fucked with this level of not caring from some townies.

On September 02 2023 18:47 DarthPunk wrote:


Awesome have fun!!

Always good to see the kiwis smack the Poms 😂

On September 03 2023 08:14 iamperfection wrote:
as long as were reminiscing about that time member marv's L take that mafia teams should be "balanced"

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/406168-ego-mini-mafia?page=93#1858

I remember caring more about his elo scores he assigned then his argument.

On September 03 2023 16:25 DarthPunk wrote:


it's less a townslip when pointed out, but I think mafia ARE more likely to know about the phases of the game.

On September 03 2023 18:28 DarthPunk wrote:
Meh.

That sucks.

Tend to believe he could still be mafia.

Probably should plan around worst case scenarios though.

On September 04 2023 10:57 DarthPunk wrote:
DP's GameFAQ's Endgame walkthrough version 1.0

Obligatory before I maybe get killed post:

I think we are in a kind of 3 worlds situation in which 1 of 3 scenario's is the actual reality of the game and our job over the coming days is to work out which world we are living in.

I will outline these scenarios in order of likelihood (in my opinion)

Scenario 1 - Scum team collapse

This scenario basically assumes that the scum team suffered a catastrophic collapse for a variety of reasons. They have no thread control, are not able to find and push mis lynches and their team morale is in the gutter so nobody is trying.


I still think that this is a likely scenario because mathenalin is looking 'classically scummy' and clearly doesn't care about solving the game.

Issues with this is that if the scum team are just self voting one by one, first Koshi, then Math why have they not just conceded the game.

Maybe it is as Marv says, they are relying on us to WIFOM ourselves out of the obvious lynches and rely on us fucking up super badly in order to win.

I guess if this scenario is true we lynch math and then reassess (other option that fits is TTT but I think he is town)

Scenario 2 - Double Bus Gambit

This scenario is most likely if Mathenalin flips town.

Basically we have had a Goon and Mafia RB flip. There is a large chance that they have a GF remaining.

In this scenario LS was bussed because it was only a matter of time until he was lynched, and Koshi decided after failing to gain any traction and looking very scummy after his push on me that he was not able to recover and/or that attempting to not lynch Koshi was basically a scum claim for the remaining Mafioso.

So the GF lynches LS, lynches Koshi and tries to get to end game, not fearing a check.

This is probably the most dangerous scenario for town.

I think in this situation the remaining scum sit in the Marv/Vivax/JSL group. for various reasons which i will outline below.

JSL: this is fairly straightforward, he has been consistently scummy all game, TTT is strong reading him scum, I hated the way he only really cared about the lynch when he was trying to move people off of LS and onto math (in the world where math is town.) there have been a few occasions where things felt manufactured rather than genuine from him honestly i have been back and forth on him all game.


Marv: This would be the most personally upsetting result, cause if he is mafia he is channelling his old skills and pocketed me really hard. There are some good reasons to think Marv is mafia even though he seems quite reasonable and townie.

1.) I analyzed his voting patterns and it makes me nervous, for example: I sheeped his LS read but he was one of the last people on the wagon, after me, and the wagon had a lot of momentum when he got on. He also only voted for Koshi 20 minutes after Koshi self voted. Which makes me wonder if they discussed how they would handle Koshi in the scum discord. I guess when I looked at the voting patterns the concern was that there was a dissonance between marv's position on votes and his actually voting.

2.) There are a lot of metrics that align with his scum play, for example, I am on track to double his post count, he has been outposted by JSL and Perfection. (could be IRL but also tracks with his engagement levels as scum vs as town) He has also been more amiable, which is something that I associate with his mafia play more than his town play.

There is nothing that really jumps out at me that makes him mafia, but if he is trying as mafia it really wouldn't

Vivax: DMB NK, generally looking less town as time goes on, less curious than I would expect. He looks really good for getting DMB to secure the LS lynch, but that is also a bus play that I would expect, particularly if he was needing to manage the image of people.


Scenario 3 - Mafia Vig

This is basically the least concerning and most verifiable scenario.

The idea is that Perfection shot VE (a potentially strong player) while VE's stock was low and claimed vig in order to play the long game.

in this instance because the goon and RB have flipped, there cannot be a GF and Mafia Vig at the same time, COP should check here to eliminate this scenario.

I don't think this is very likely but should be eliminated for clarity.

Where to from here:


I think we lynch Mathenalin and either win the game or eliminate scenario 1.

if he flips town

Consider Scenario 2 (hopefully blue claim can help at some point): I like marv or JSL as mafia in this scenario, probably marv is most likely.

Consider Scenario 3 only if you happen to get a red check on Perfection

If you are town: and I am killed and you need to figure out Scenario 2 without me, you will need to have some thread presence to get it done. That means you actually need to push activity and make yourself obviously town, you will need to find the reasons the last mafia is mafia and make it clear to the others.

Good Luck!!

On September 05 2023 08:54 DarthPunk wrote:


Why wowsers?

On September 05 2023 18:12 TankTopTiger wrote:
I don't think I've seen Jacob play as mafia, but my assumption would be that, like you and I, Jacob would try to play in a way that he thinks he can perform as either alignment. So I project from this assumption that Jacob himself thinks he could. Whether he actually can or not is a different matter, but out of all the high post-count styles, his, where he deliberately undermines his own conclusions constantly, is probably the easiest to duplicate as mafia. He never really has to stick by anything. If he fucks up, he can just say he wasn't thinking as town.

IMO it's less about the number of words, and more about the number of assertions with clear convictions.

Jacob, you said you don't enjoy playing as mafia the way you used to. If you used to enjoy it, surely you could shit out a ton of words while doing it?

On September 05 2023 16:05 TankTopTiger wrote:


Just gonna point out that I'm not scared of you because positionally I've no reason to think I'm in any danger. As of when I took the pressure off you, I've got both DP and Marv thinking I'm town after they both put in time to vet me. So long as that doesn't change, the only way I die is if all three remaining players gang me and do it before the countervote, which I think is unlikely. You've also said a lot about my townliness recently so I don't really expect you to go super hard on me.

So if you think I took my foot off the pedal because you assume I'm scared, I think you should reappraise. I'm not gloating or saying things can't change, but there's no reason to think my current mindset would be one of fear. So me taking pressure off you isn't because of that.

Also IMO people including DP have mischaracterised my aggression onto you. When I tunnel I fucking capital D Dig. With you I've commented and quipped and asked around, but I'd be surprised if my entire word count this game was as big as my tunnel word count on Marv in E1. My confidence in my reads scales with the effort I put into them. So yeah I read you red, but I don't think that read compares in value to whatever Marv or DP put out, who are both more capable and more engaged than I.

On September 05 2023 22:12 DarthPunk wrote:
The problem is Marv is good at mafia when he tries so there isn’t really going to be much to go on.

On September 05 2023 23:16 Vivax wrote:


Tonally to me you appeared rather annoyed and abrasive yea.
Still do judging by the answer.

On September 06 2023 11:04 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Also Marv also gonna want one from you as I'm not sure what's fucking up anymore.