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Quarterly Mafia 1 - part 2 - Page 102

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10859 Posts
September 03 2023 08:37 GMT
#2021
On August 27 2023 17:40 mathenalin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2023 17:30 DarthPunk wrote:
On August 27 2023 17:24 mathenalin wrote:
On August 27 2023 13:07 TankTopTiger wrote:
I asked DMB.

I'm probably the best friend you have rn and the fact you're missing this as well confirms to me that you have no handle on what's going on.


Icky


If you are around, would be interested to see where your thoughts are at this point.


Yeh im around.

I need to go over a few bits again but some highlights to me.

Your push on vivax was the most memorable. I haven't decided if vivax was "caught out" or just being obtuse and confrontational with you , there's a lot of headspace talk that i dont understand. I do like that you are back in the thread and pushing , game has felt directionless

I read ttt's explanation of his only friend comment. Its a pretty obvious "play". does mafia make plays though, he certainly seems different to last game.

There is extra votes on chez , more pressure is good ,he is starting to crumble.

Last game marv and rayn were both town and it felt we made good progress. This game rayn has activity issues which I get but i havent felt the same drive or well thought out comments from either. Something to keep an eye on.

LS has been pretty AFK again with a weirdly reasoned read. Apparently that is normal LS according to marv. But i havent seen emotional involvement and he only responds when his name gets pinged so i don't like him.

It seems like i need to form an opinion on iamp and jacob if i want to get a feel for some other players. Prioritising that next unless you have other questions


Why does he not mention Koshi at all here?

Particularly as he interacts with him more than anyone else prior to this.

I tend to agree the interaction with Koshi and LS at the start comes off as him forcing himself to interact with his teammates.
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10859 Posts
September 03 2023 08:39 GMT
#2022
On August 27 2023 18:03 mathenalin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2023 17:47 DarthPunk wrote:
On August 27 2023 17:40 mathenalin wrote:
On August 27 2023 17:30 DarthPunk wrote:
On August 27 2023 17:24 mathenalin wrote:
On August 27 2023 13:07 TankTopTiger wrote:
I asked DMB.

I'm probably the best friend you have rn and the fact you're missing this as well confirms to me that you have no handle on what's going on.


Icky


If you are around, would be interested to see where your thoughts are at this point.


Yeh im around.

I need to go over a few bits again but some highlights to me.

Your push on vivax was the most memorable. I haven't decided if vivax was "caught out" or just being obtuse and confrontational with you , there's a lot of headspace talk that i dont understand. I do like that you are back in the thread and pushing , game has felt directionless

I read ttt's explanation of his only friend comment. Its a pretty obvious "play". does mafia make plays though, he certainly seems different to last game.

There is extra votes on chez , more pressure is good ,he is starting to crumble.

Last game marv and rayn were both town and it felt we made good progress. This game rayn has activity issues which I get but i havent felt the same drive or well thought out comments from either. Something to keep an eye on.

LS has been pretty AFK again with a weirdly reasoned read. Apparently that is normal LS according to marv. But i havent seen emotional involvement and he only responds when his name gets pinged so i don't like him.

It seems like i need to form an opinion on iamp and jacob if i want to get a feel for some other players. Prioritising that next unless you have other questions


If you had to lynch someone that is not Chezinu right now who would it be?

Any thoughts on Koshi?

Thanks for the post :D


No thoughts on Koshi but i haven't really tried, same with VE i suppose.

LS would be my next lynch choice


Yeah, this still is bad. Tried to have thoughts, townies just have thoughts.

and why none on Koshi? what was the interaction about then?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
mathenalin
Profile Joined June 2011
United Kingdom120 Posts
September 03 2023 09:01 GMT
#2023
I'm incredibly busy. My inactivity is not a response to anything anyone has said or done. I've had about 5 munutes of freetime each day so i havent been able to play.

Lynching me is correct as I am a huge question mark that needs getting out of the way but there is no point filter diving me as I will flip town and don't have any reads tbh. look for the other inactive players as LS and Koshi both gave up.

After NK you can all vote me and vote for an immediate end of day just to speed things along
Good luck
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9648 Posts
September 03 2023 09:16 GMT
#2024
On September 03 2023 18:01 mathenalin wrote:
I'm incredibly busy. My inactivity is not a response to anything anyone has said or done. I've had about 5 munutes of freetime each day so i havent been able to play.

Lynching me is correct as I am a huge question mark that needs getting out of the way but there is no point filter diving me as I will flip town and don't have any reads tbh. look for the other inactive players as LS and Koshi both gave up.

After NK you can all vote me and vote for an immediate end of day just to speed things along
Good luck



The game is typically very active, so the thread may grow large quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. This game can involve hours of reading and typically spans 2 weeks. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play.



http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10859 Posts
September 03 2023 09:28 GMT
#2025
Meh.

That sucks.

Tend to believe he could still be mafia.

Probably should plan around worst case scenarios though.

"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10859 Posts
September 03 2023 09:29 GMT
#2026
TTT why are you so confident about Jake. Can you take me through it??
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
September 03 2023 09:38 GMT
#2027
On September 03 2023 18:28 DarthPunk wrote:
Meh.

That sucks.

Tend to believe he could still be mafia.

Probably should plan around worst case scenarios though.


Yes to all.

Although so far the mafia strategy seems to have been ‘hope town royally shit the bed’ and so far we haven’t. So we should be careful not to wifom ourselves too much
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10859 Posts
September 03 2023 10:00 GMT
#2028
Marv what do you think of the shot on DMB?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 03 2023 10:08 GMT
#2029
On September 03 2023 18:29 DarthPunk wrote:
TTT why are you so confident about Jake. Can you take me through it??


The confidence has been a little surprising but it kinda makes sense we just see each other as mafia easily due to our diverge t thought styles. I still remember the time we tunnelled each other to death (we were both town) resulting in an early mafia win. I'm not sure who won the tunnel war. But that was the last game I played in a while so it's fresh on the mind and why I've desperately been trying to not do that in this game.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 03 2023 10:11 GMT
#2030
The whole speed things along thing just seems anti town. Although tbh I would be for it to as this could drag on. (or just a mafia surrender)

If truely town the more time in thread even idleish can be useful for the future.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 03 2023 10:48 GMT
#2031
On September 03 2023 19:11 JacobStrangelove wrote:
The whole speed things along thing just seems anti town. Although tbh I would be for it to as this could drag on. (or just a mafia surrender)

If truely town the more time in thread even idleish can be useful for the future.


and by anti town it's obviously not anti town if he surrenders but like, faking wanting day sped up would be. Is surrendering even possible?
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9648 Posts
September 03 2023 14:06 GMT
#2032
You shouldn't be allowed to surrender.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22423 Posts
September 03 2023 14:24 GMT
#2033
On September 03 2023 23:06 iamperfection wrote:
You shouldn't be allowed to surrender.


But...But...The mostly gay fiction writing!
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22423 Posts
September 03 2023 14:28 GMT
#2034
They probably killed DMB to save her from a possible mislynch and the story that would accompany it.
The real important question right now is whose butt is on the line to be pillaged.
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10859 Posts
September 03 2023 22:14 GMT
#2035
Thanks marv. Marv what do you think?
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10859 Posts
September 04 2023 01:57 GMT
#2036
DP's GameFAQ's Endgame walkthrough version 1.0

Obligatory before I maybe get killed post:

I think we are in a kind of 3 worlds situation in which 1 of 3 scenario's is the actual reality of the game and our job over the coming days is to work out which world we are living in.

I will outline these scenarios in order of likelihood (in my opinion)

Scenario 1 - Scum team collapse

This scenario basically assumes that the scum team suffered a catastrophic collapse for a variety of reasons. They have no thread control, are not able to find and push mis lynches and their team morale is in the gutter so nobody is trying.


I still think that this is a likely scenario because mathenalin is looking 'classically scummy' and clearly doesn't care about solving the game.

Issues with this is that if the scum team are just self voting one by one, first Koshi, then Math why have they not just conceded the game.

Maybe it is as Marv says, they are relying on us to WIFOM ourselves out of the obvious lynches and rely on us fucking up super badly in order to win.

I guess if this scenario is true we lynch math and then reassess (other option that fits is TTT but I think he is town)

Scenario 2 - Double Bus Gambit

This scenario is most likely if Mathenalin flips town.

Basically we have had a Goon and Mafia RB flip. There is a large chance that they have a GF remaining.

In this scenario LS was bussed because it was only a matter of time until he was lynched, and Koshi decided after failing to gain any traction and looking very scummy after his push on me that he was not able to recover and/or that attempting to not lynch Koshi was basically a scum claim for the remaining Mafioso.

So the GF lynches LS, lynches Koshi and tries to get to end game, not fearing a check.

This is probably the most dangerous scenario for town.

I think in this situation the remaining scum sit in the Marv/Vivax/JSL group. for various reasons which i will outline below.

JSL: this is fairly straightforward, he has been consistently scummy all game, TTT is strong reading him scum, I hated the way he only really cared about the lynch when he was trying to move people off of LS and onto math (in the world where math is town.) there have been a few occasions where things felt manufactured rather than genuine from him honestly i have been back and forth on him all game.


Marv: This would be the most personally upsetting result, cause if he is mafia he is channelling his old skills and pocketed me really hard. There are some good reasons to think Marv is mafia even though he seems quite reasonable and townie.

1.) I analyzed his voting patterns and it makes me nervous, for example: I sheeped his LS read but he was one of the last people on the wagon, after me, and the wagon had a lot of momentum when he got on. He also only voted for Koshi 20 minutes after Koshi self voted. Which makes me wonder if they discussed how they would handle Koshi in the scum discord. I guess when I looked at the voting patterns the concern was that there was a dissonance between marv's position on votes and his actually voting.

2.) There are a lot of metrics that align with his scum play, for example, I am on track to double his post count, he has been outposted by JSL and Perfection. (could be IRL but also tracks with his engagement levels as scum vs as town) He has also been more amiable, which is something that I associate with his mafia play more than his town play.

There is nothing that really jumps out at me that makes him mafia, but if he is trying as mafia it really wouldn't

Vivax: DMB NK, generally looking less town as time goes on, less curious than I would expect. He looks really good for getting DMB to secure the LS lynch, but that is also a bus play that I would expect, particularly if he was needing to manage the image of people.


Scenario 3 - Mafia Vig

This is basically the least concerning and most verifiable scenario.

The idea is that Perfection shot VE (a potentially strong player) while VE's stock was low and claimed vig in order to play the long game.

in this instance because the goon and RB have flipped, there cannot be a GF and Mafia Vig at the same time, COP should check here to eliminate this scenario.

I don't think this is very likely but should be eliminated for clarity.

Where to from here:


I think we lynch Mathenalin and either win the game or eliminate scenario 1.

if he flips town

Consider Scenario 2 (hopefully blue claim can help at some point): I like marv or JSL as mafia in this scenario, probably marv is most likely.

Consider Scenario 3 only if you happen to get a red check on Perfection

If you are town: and I am killed and you need to figure out Scenario 2 without me, you will need to have some thread presence to get it done. That means you actually need to push activity and make yourself obviously town, you will need to find the reasons the last mafia is mafia and make it clear to the others.

Good Luck!!

"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2023 02:01 GMT
#2037
Damn a minute late Grack even he's lost interest.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9857 Posts
September 04 2023 02:03 GMT
#2038
Day 4


[image loading]



It all began with a single, fateful choice – a choice that would haunt him for eternity. iamperfection, a figure once revered for his unwavering commitment to excellence, found himself at the heart of a tragedy after targeting VisceraEyes. It was not the act itself that consumed him; rather, it was the realization that his own actions may have inadvertently paved the way for the Shadows to descend upon our beloved VisceraEyes.

In the dark recesses of his soul, iamperfection wrestled with the weight of his guilt and the haunting question that plagued his every thought: Could he still be perfection after such a heinous act? His very essence seemed tainted, and the relentless remorse gnawed at his conscience.

As the days turned into nights, the shadows that once clung to the edges of his existence began to close in, their sinister embrace intensifying with every passing moment. The internal struggle between his former self and the darkness that threatened to consume him grew more profound, as though a relentless storm raged within his soul.

In a tragic twist of fate, iamperfection, overcome by the unbearable weight of guilt and despair, was ultimately taken by the very Shadows he had inadvertently invited into our midst. Their sinister tendrils now wrap around him, eclipsing the light he once represented, and leaving a void in our hearts and our town.


iamperfection the Vigilante has been killed.


Day 4 begins. The day ends on Wednesday, Sep 06 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
DarthPunk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia10859 Posts
September 04 2023 02:04 GMT
#2039
On September 03 2023 11:23 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Oh actually voting Math in the thread right now.

I think with the Koshi Lynch we are now...

6 Town 1 Scum in the worst case 5 town 1 scum after the night if no medic (just went back and checked LS was roleblocker so likely no mafia vig, plus too much kp in the game if mafia and town vig I imagine) so I can happily trade one for one with Math.


Then if it's not Math it'll be down to 4-1 or 3-1 after the night so we can mylynch twice and be fine.

Although if it's not math and then I die because fair enough at that point assume iper dies as some point during the night.

There'll be a DP Marv, Vivax, TTT endgame.


##Vote: Jacobstrangelove
"If I wanted your opinion, I'd have told you what it was."
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2023 02:06 GMT
#2040
Well we don't have a medic likely unless they were playing the odds.
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