EPT[N]A Mostly Normal Game of Mafia - Page 15
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:06 Trfel wrote: Also, shouldn't you know what I did if you are town? Well I didn't receive a roleblock notification if that's what you're asking. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:13 Trfel wrote: Hapahauli, would mafia hold their KP here? I don't think so actually. I thought it was possible, but it's not like mafia guarentees a mislynch if you RB a poor unfortunate townie and we auto-lynch him. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
For scum to hold the shot, they would have to have to have a >75% chance of victory by holding it. Mafia holding the shot would be an attempt to "frame" a townie or mislynch Trfel. Problem is that Trfel has a 50% chance of "blocking" mafia. Therefore from Trfel's perspective, you end up with a 50% of Trfel targeting a mafia and that mafia player getting "framed" by holding the shot, which does not seem like good odds to do so. So I'd say no. I don't think mafia holds KP here. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Obviously throw out all of this analysis if you targeted me Trfel, which in that case, you'd be lying scum since I wasn't roleblocked, and I'm obviously super innocent. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I failed to take into account that Trfel only has three realistic targets: Myself, Rayn and Vivax. That's 1/3 odds of blocking the shot, and 2/3 odds of mafia victory. So mafia needs >66% chance... and if they hold the shot, Mafia has a 66% chance of being targeted... Which is worse odds than the first scenario, so the "mafia has bad odds to hold KP" stands I think. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:33 Vivax wrote: Hapa would have claimed RB if you jailed him. So kinda obvious tbh. But how TF are you roleblocked and rayn jailed? Something doesn't add up here. Roleblock mechanics. Host confirmed that JK is broken down into 2 stages: 1) A high priority roleblock, then subsequently; 2) A low priority save. Therefore, Trfel can roleblock if he is roleblocked, but he cannot save | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:45 Vivax wrote: If I had been targeted, it would be game over. Simples. That's not true, since mafia can hold KP, and you would have no way of knowing if you were "roleblocked" (since you claim to be a VT). | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:47 Vivax wrote: Why would mafia hold KP? That's not a possibility I'm willing to entertain. Explain the benefit to me. I don't think they would (see odds analysis last page), but it is possible for mafia to have a plan of trying to "frame" the target of Trfel's block. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Trfel should be confirmed town, since the game would be over if he wasn't JK (no way to block mafia shot). | ||
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