[M][T] Aperture Mafia 4, Episode 2 - Page 83

On November 04 2020 03:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:

do you think dirkzor thinks he is gonna win the mayoral race?

On November 04 2020 03:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i am like 50% the game is solved this phase. if you think it will help i will claim, iamp. that is if you think i am not 100% town. i am if i claim but i dont want to do that for nothing.

i think onegu is taking shit about the threads because he didnt think TT is town and his explanation smells like ass.

i know hapa is bs. i dont know why and i dont know if it hursts us but i know hapa is bs.

Koshi is probably town.

Slam can be mafia.

TT can be mafia.

Grack can be mafia.

Everyone else is town i think, Dirkzor can be 3p but i care less about him than i care about hapa.

On November 03 2020 05:17 Hapahauli wrote:


This is really interesting, and I think it heavily discounts the Onegu mafia theory. If you are Acro and set up the threads in this way, who is the mislynch target in 1-6? Onegu and Grack are the only realistic mislynch targets here.

Acro doesn't really attempt to push Grack at all, and instead pushes Onegu and Shockeyy for most of the day.

So we have to believe that Onegu and Acro had a plan to bus each other hard for town cred (unlikely, given how inactive Onegu was and generally is), or that Acro's motivations have more face-value to them.

The other thing that sticks out to me is Acro's attempt to goad me into shooting Onegu:





Now I was Roleblocked (seemingly by mafia), so this may have been an "empty" play by Acro. However, if Acro seriously thinks I have KP, and he successfully "convinces" me into shooting Onegu, mafia is committed to Roleblock me for the rest of the game.

I am inclined to take Acro's words at face value once again - mafia generally don't goad third parties into shooting scumbuddies.

On November 03 2020 05:34 Hapahauli wrote:


Let's look at the hypothetical scenario of "scum-Grack" where the declared votes in-thread are:

Acro (5): Hapa, Grack, Shockeyy, Onegu, Dirkzor
Onegu (1): Acro

... in the 5 vote scenario, it doesn't matter what a "scumbuddy" does - Acro still dies, making the scummer's action a moot issue. I believe this is what everyone thought the vote-count was going into the lynch.

Now let's play the 4 vote scenario with "Scum-Grack" with how the vote count actually played out.

Acro (4): Hapa, Grack, Onegu, Dirkzor
Dirk (1): Shockeyy
Onegu (1): Acro

If Dirk swaps his vote to create a no lynch, the effect is the following:
1) Acro is confirmed mafia;
2) Shockeyy is confirmed town.
3) Exactly 1 mafia is in the group of "Hapa/Grack/Onegu/Dirk", which means that 0-3 players can be confirmed town if that mafia dies.

I don't think that is a great outcome for mafia.

If Dirk swaps his vote to create a no lynch, the effect is the following:
1) Acro is confirmed mafia;
2) Shockeyy is confirmed town.
3) Exactly 1 mafia is in the group of "Hapa/Grack/Onegu/Dirk", which means that 0-3 players can be confirmed town if that mafia dies.

0-3 players can be confirmed town if that mafia dies

On November 04 2020 03:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:

it's an upside that ZERO players might not be able to confirmed? really hapa? really.............. i know about statistics and if your chances are from 0 to 3 then you are as good as nothing.

On November 04 2020 03:27 iamperfection wrote:

He was talking from mafias perspective

On November 04 2020 03:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i agree that i probably look like shit after this, but i want to kill hapa because he is not being honest. most of the people may not see it. it's okay, i dont even think we NEED to kill hapa. i want all the town win and not some smuggy 3p's who are shit. hapa is a smuggy 3p and we are in a good position to have 1 mafia dead and no towns so far.

call me scummy for trying to sway the lynch away from mafia idc. another thing is that i wanna see TT flip before i decide if to lynch slam or not, and hapa being very not town gave me a chance to try.

On November 04 2020 03:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:

what no? lol

On November 04 2020 03:32 iamperfection wrote:

Like hapa is most responsible for getting acro he had the most sway in that thread he is a non issue. Plus I need him for a little bit anyways.

On November 04 2020 03:33 iamperfection wrote:

He was talking about the secret voting in response to my question why any of the 4 voters would not just lie if they were mafia.

0-3 players can be confirmed town if that mafia dies