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On June 04 2020 15:47 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2020 15:00 jeekaka wrote:Vote count when you arrive: Vivax (3): Jockmcplop, raynpelikoneet, CopCake Trfel (2): Zey, Jeekaka CopCake (2): Vivax, ShoCkeyy ShocCkey (1): TicTock So, you dont think Vivax is town. You and cake are both next in two votes, and you vote Cake soon after, so you definitely don't think she's town. On June 04 2020 05:42 Trfel wrote:Why are we lynching people who are town?  So what on earth does this mean then? I was half-joking, and did kinda think CopCake was town (though my mind quickly changed). I sometimes assume people are town until there is evidence to the contrary, as was the case here (after which I got to business). The post served its purpose of attracting attention and not lynching Vivax, though.
Which is good thing because..?
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On June 04 2020 21:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Zey i have a question for you:
You explicitly asked me about why i scumread Vivax. Why didnt you have any follow up after my answer? I mean you must think that my case is either right or wrong or bad enough for me to be mafia. You followed the rest of the day with the thought of Vivax still not being mafia, why didnt you try to convince me voting either trfel or tictock since you vlearly thought my case is not good?
I'm actually also interested in hearing more about Zey, as my only reason to think she's town is Trfels scumminess really :D
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And what comes to people defending Vivax, I think there many.
Shock was very active looking for someone else to lynch.
Zey stated she was ready to lynch TicTock over Vivax. I don't really think Zey had enough thread presence to actively push another lynch, but she might have been ready to jump into another wagon if there was possibility. (Also both Vivax and Zey had TicTock in their lynch pool.)
Then there was Trfel.
And then there was Jock, who decided to lynch Cake because "everybody" were happy about Vivax lynch.
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Hmmm, I guess scum!Vivax would not have been so upset if scum!Jock was in his wagon for some wolf theatre.
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And I dont even know who is Palmar.
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Ok! Well Trfels scum catch rate has not impressed me this far and if you really think saving your ass was heroic you'd better start solving.
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Because if you are town, it would actually be helpful to see some town progress to make it possible to read you and maybe even point us to the tracks of the right scum.
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Ok so.
I think Tictock and rayn are town. I'm a bit paranoid about rayn but if I'm wrong here so be it. At least now I'm not reasoning myself out of thinking he might be scum because something he did, but he just feels town to me. Also if rayn was mafia Tictock could as well be as I would be totally lost in here :D But I think I share a similar world view with these two, and to me Tictock EOD feels like town investigating and trying to find best or even least bad lynch option.
I have said all I have about Trfel except actually want to add this thing:
Vivax (3): Jockmcplop, raynpelikoneet, CopCake
Trfel (2): Zey, Jeekaka
CopCake (2): Vivax, ShoCkeyy
ShocCkey (1): TicTock
Trfel actually jumps into a wagon with his top scumread and does not seem to think there's anything fishy. And today he continues to suspect Shock like nothing ever happened.
I don't like at all Vivax's statement that he's basically not gonna do anything today as he's fine with his POE.
Shocks opinions are just weird and it really seems he's not paying attention. Like he literally accused Cake of scumreading Trfel for being afk, when Cake had said that's her main reason for not wanting to vote Trfel.
I said yesterday that Sho is not very likely to be mafia with Vivax or Trfel, but actually that EOD changed my opinion a bit. Still that Shock's and Trfel's Cake push does not make actually any sense is Vivax is town. Unless... Cake was thinking switcing to Trfel, TicTock preferred Trfel over Vivax. This was at the bottom of my scum pair listing but moving it up actually :D
This is maybe a bit of a soulread, but I think Zey is almost never mafia with Trfel. There's a small detail that makes me actually think she is just town.
So I think our mafia team is one of the following:
Vivax/Trfel
Trfel/Shock
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Vivax/Shock (as we have this too wolf to be wolf thing going, I'd find that Trfel town hero thing to be one if Vivax/Trfel w/w)
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Vivax/Zey (if I'm wrong about Zey)
Yeah and in theory Zey/Shock why not.
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And that detail about Zey:
On June 05 2020 05:33 Zey wrote:Show nested quote +Jock wrote:
I'm considering switching to copcake right now.
Reasons:
The voting late on which looks like self preservation, the threat to switch to trfel which i think comes from a mafia place (ensuring 3 votes on trfel because i was getting cold feet about the lynch), the early townread on me followed by reassuring me into keeping my vote on vivax. It all seems very convenient. Hmm, wasn't Cake getting cold feet before you even mentioned you were getting?
Half an hour later Jock is dead.
I just think subconsciously you probably would not start questioning someone who you know is not gonna be there to answer.
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On June 06 2020 09:49 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2020 19:10 jeekaka wrote:And that detail about Zey: On June 05 2020 05:33 Zey wrote:Jock wrote:
I'm considering switching to copcake right now.
Reasons:
The voting late on which looks like self preservation, the threat to switch to trfel which i think comes from a mafia place (ensuring 3 votes on trfel because i was getting cold feet about the lynch), the early townread on me followed by reassuring me into keeping my vote on vivax. It all seems very convenient. Hmm, wasn't Cake getting cold feet before you even mentioned you were getting? Half an hour later Jock is dead. I just think subconsciously you probably would not start questioning someone who you know is not gonna be there to answer. Jeekaka, I think you are probably town (you've raised points that are actually decent), but I highly disagree with this. I know before that as mafia I have posted large cases on people that I was night-killing at the deadline, to make the night kill less associated with me. I don't think this is a valid point at all and would encourage you to re-evaluate your read on Zey.
I thought about it, as it could have been faked, but it is not a huge case, it's not even a case, it's just a question, it's barely noticeable. Self centered me just noticed it because I was very worried when you didn't mention me at all N1 and I was very much worried of being NK X)
In our home forum you cannot post at night, but of course Zey could have still thought of it, or scum buddy could have adviced her. But in that case I think it could be more clearly formatted as Zey being suspicious of Jock.
But I try not to put too much weight on this.
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On June 06 2020 09:34 Trfel wrote:
Oh, and who was it that accused me of having too low of an accuracy of scumreads? Yes I was wrong on CopCake, and for that I apologize, but being wrong in one read on Day 1 isn't that noteworthy honestly. Kinda annoyed at that reason to scumread me. Almost seems dumb enough I might OMGUS it.
That was probably me :D But I was just joking about that town hero thing, because that actually would only make sense if Cake actually had been wolf, as even if Vivax is vanilla town too his flip would have made so much more sense as now everybody keeps suspecting him even more and he's apparently unmotivated because of it.
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I think your scumreads are decent, actually i listed Shock/Zey in my possible scum pairs as well.
Mostly I just wonder about you and Vivax hard townreading each other. You yourself admit it's very reasonable to suspect you - what do you think about Vivax not suspecting you at all?
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Also if you could address me to Vivax's original thoughts, preferably good ones.
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You read Shock and Tictock very differently than Vivax though.
What are your thoughts of them in comparison to Vivax's thoughts you just quoted?
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On June 06 2020 14:27 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2020 14:18 jeekaka wrote:
I think your scumreads are decent, actually i listed Shock/Zey in my possible scum pairs as well.
Mostly I just wonder about you and Vivax hard townreading each other. You yourself admit it's very reasonable to suspect you - what do you think about Vivax not suspecting you at all? I don't want to dive deep into self-meta since I think self-meta is a very ridiculous thing. As in, typically it's too much to expect other people to fully understand/recognize/believe it. Vivax knows my play fairly well, he was actually my coach in my first mafia game here. He knows I've had my share of effortful and lazy games. Furthermore I don't think he's calling me town, I believe he's more saying I'm null, which is (imo) a reasonable stance. See here (bold): Show nested quote +On June 05 2020 22:54 Vivax wrote:On June 05 2020 22:51 ShoCkeyy wrote:On June 05 2020 03:53 Vivax wrote:
Will consider looking into him a bit harder.
But basically he's been very townie last game and lynched regardless, so maybe now he cba to try too hard.
But that's the point, he's not trying to look like he's trying hard and the way he casually called out rayn felt townie to me.
As mafia he was more...Contributive, but in a quantity over quality way. While he talked about a lot of stuff you didn't get a picture of where his head was at, much like I feel about TT this game. Did you look into Trfel or not?  Yep. Doesn't shift me particularly either way.His rayn scumread-ish is interesting but not worth putting much weight into if he doesn't pursue it further. I'm still in a TT+zey world. I'm reading Vivax more town than he's reading me. But both of us have other targets we feel are better lynches, to me that seems fine.
Maybe Vivax could clarify this himself?
Because to me it really seems he does not think you're null. D1 he townreads you, N1 he says he does not have any reason to think his former townreads are scum, he even calls you a town hero. Re-checking you does not shift him either way.
(But ok maybe you are right, more than townreading you he's probably just decided to stick to his PoE and not ever look anywhere else.)
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On June 06 2020 14:53 Trfel wrote:
Have you re-evaluated Tictock lately? What do you think of the concerns Vivax and I have expressed about him?
I am honestly having great difficulties imagining world where both you and Vivax are town, and it's just not very likely he's scum with either of you. Seeing him paired to Shock is also difficult. I admit Zey/Tictock is possibility here, but honestly Zey just not getting Tictock and Tt wondering why Zey keeps going on about it seems genuine to me, because I've been down that road with Zey too XD
And for me Tictock's response to Vivax's accusations seems truthful and matches my read of him.
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Yeah but no Tictock's not maf here because if he were - and if I'm right not with Vivax or Trfel - lunching them would be auto win. No need to start reconsidering.
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Dont you dare to go down the Jock road :D
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EPT
