[M][N]Oil Futures Mafia - Page 11

On May 06 2020 13:01 Trfel wrote:
They're not, but I'm not sure (1) why it matters and (2) what makes you say that?

On May 06 2020 13:15 Trfel wrote:
I strongly believe that Jockmcplop is mafia.

If you re-evaluate Jockmcplop, I will re-evaluate you. Deal?

On May 06 2020 13:17 Trfel wrote:
Can I ask why?

On May 06 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:
Well, I reread your filter. Admittedly fairly quickly, but I did.

I'm sorry, it's hard to ignore associations. I couldn't help but notice how the reason for your townread on Jockmcplop changed so much. First you said it's because he was making good posts, then you said it was because of how he townread you, then you called him top town and disagreed with my case on him, then you said it was just because of how he townread you. And a few times you said he was town because mafia wouldn't afk and not vote, which is just false when it comes to medical emergencies. It doesn't feel like you have multiple reasons to townread Jockmcplop, it sounds like you are forcing a townread and are choosing an arbitrary reason each time.

Outside of that, I don't notice a ton wrong in your filter except how you were wrong on Day 2 with the ShoCkeyy push. You were all excited to lynch raynpelikoneet but then you hard pushed ShoCkeyy most of the day which resulted in his lynch.

I wish I had more reasons to call you mafia, so I could convince others It just reads to me like you're mafia. I guess it's just a gut read. Maybe I shouldn't use gut reads in a 77-page game in MYLO with plenty of information but as logical as I am, feelings dominate my decisions.

On May 06 2020 13:53 Grackaroni wrote:
I think GB comes off as quite townie for day 3. I like that he's keeping things interesting and I don't think his reasoning for calling out Vivax is bad. It kind of feels like mafia are just waiting out the final day.

If we aren't voting Jock I'd vote Koshi over Vivax though. Slam also claimed cop at the end of day 1 when he had 2 votes and was being hard pushed by Rayn the night before Rayn died.

This would be my new list atm.

Trfel

GB
Vivax

Chezinu?

Jock
Slam
Koshi

On May 06 2020 13:58 Chezinu wrote:
##Vote: Jockmcplop

Then we slam Koshi!

If we lose, we blame rayn

On May 06 2020 14:13 Trfel wrote:
Like I said, my reasons aren't great. It's a gut read, based on the feels.

Felt like you pushed ShoCkeyy to secure an easy mislynch instead of raynpelikoneet, who wasn't likely to be lynched. Leaving your mafia buddies in greater risk.

And we can see what happens after Jockmcplop flips.

On May 06 2020 14:13 Grackaroni wrote:

I probably should bank on 2 blues for a setup that's short one townie and move up Chez.

On May 06 2020 14:56 Trfel wrote:
I thought you just said that Jockmcplop could be mafia?

On May 06 2020 15:00 Trfel wrote:
To me, this implies a decent possibility that Jockmcplop is mafia. Like, it's realistic. But now you don't seem to think so anymore. What changed?

On May 06 2020 12:48 GlowingBear wrote:


Nobody expected that check was true, Chez. You're doctor or aren't you?

Also, who did you protect day1?

On May 07 2020 02:03 Trfel wrote:
How to Solve the Unsolvable Game
Fortunately, I still have one card to play.

I claim Town Tracker.

Hard claim. No take-backsies or any of that.

I know, I'm surprised there are two investigative roles in the game. But the setup is what the setup is, it's up to us to play it to the best of our abilities.

Night 1: Tracked Koshi. Koshi did not visit anyone.
Night 2: Tracked GlowingBear. GlowingBear visited Chezinu.

Please note a few things about the setup of the game. First, non-vt roles are unique. This includes the mafia team. The mafia team comprises of up to one goon (who delivers the night kill) and two to three of the following: roleblocker, framer, godfather, and mason. Also, keep in mind that roleblocking the veteran does not prevent his ability from blocking a kill in this game.

I believe:
GlowingBear is the mafia roleblocker/framer who visited Chezinu on Night 2.

Framing causes the framed player to visit a random player on that night only (not all future nights, like framing in some other mafia games). So a Night 1 frame on GlowingBear would not cause him to visit a player on Night 2. Also note that framing another mafia member is useless in this game, as framing causes them to return mafia to checks, not reverse the alignment.

There is the possibility that GlowingBear himself is the mafia framer and framed Chezinu on Night 2, but I think it is more likely that he is the roleblocker. The reason for this is that Chezinu was hinting at being a power role for a significant portion, as was raynpelikoneet. It makes sense that mafia would roleblock Chezinu and kill raynpelikoneet in this situation. However, if GlowingBear is the mafia framer, I would still consider it a successful lynch.

GlowingBear as mafia would never visit mafia!Chezinu in this way. Therefore, unless GlowingBear was framed on Night 2, he is 100% mafia. I consider the odds quite good. And furthermore, if GlowingBear is indeed mafia, Chezinu is confirmed town. That's why I have been hard townreading Chezinu despite knowing that he is not blue.

Player List
Chezinu
Grackaroni?
Vivax
Alakaslam
Jockmcplop
Koshi
GlowingBear
Trfel

From here the game still has some difficulty, but the above is what is known. Hopefully as more mafia are lynched, the roles of the mafia players make things more clear.

For example, I very, very, very strongly believe Jockmcplop to be mafia, enough that I would be willing to lynch him over nearly-confirmed-mafia GlowingBear today (Day 3, at the time of writing). If Jockmcplop flips mafia goon, unfortunately this is not very helpful. I expect Jockmcplop to be the goon because of Murphy's Law. However, if Jockmcplop flips any other mafia role, we know that the third mafia (not GlowingBear, if he was the goon then Chezinu would be dead, and not Jockmcplop) has to be the goon, because mafia roles are all unique. And remember, the goon delivers the night kill until they are dead. This would all but confirm Koshi as town, because he did not visit anyone on Night 1 (there would need to be three mafia roles, none of which are the goon, and Koshi would need to be the godfather or mason and not deliver the night kill). If Jockmcplop flips godfather, this would also make it even more likely that GlowingBear is mafia and Grackaroni is town (as there is even less likelihood of a framer in a game with an unaware miller and a godfather).

One other thing that can be tried is trying to figure out who is the mason. I personally believe that the mason is mafia, otherwise there is no reason for the mason not to have claimed already (even if not to save ShoCkeyy, why not still claim?). I believe that the mason would rather avoid the attention that claiming mason would cause, thus is playing to survive, and therefore is mafia. If no town players claim mason, then we know the remaining mason is mafia, as masons are required to be a pair. If a mafia member is a mason, they can't have any other role (at least, I think this is true anyway, might be worth asking). Therefore, it's even less likely for a framer to exist (assuming GlowingBear flips roleblocker).

Unless mafia decides to try and counterclaim (which I welcome with open arms), I will be dead and there will still be two lynches ahead. I strongly recommend lynching Jockmcplop and Alakaslam.

Reading Grackaroni as mafia is quite tinfoil-y, but this possibility can be addressed if needed when there is only one mafia left. As more information about the mafia roles is revealed, more information about whether it's possible for Grackaroni to be mafia here is likewise revealed.

Koshi is also almost certainly town. In addition to not visiting anyone Night 1, he hard-pushed GlowingBear on Day 1 and nearly lynched him.

Vivax is very likely to be town here as well. In my opinion, Vivax's play this game has been a solid average. I realize that this is underwhelming for him given the very strong town games he has played recently. However, I also know that Vivax's meta as mafia is to afk and play a very weak game (admittedly this is an old meta since there haven't been many games for the past few years, so take it with a grain of salt). So I could see Vivax playing like this as mafia. The question is, how likely is it? Is it more likely that Vivax is playing a pretty amazing scum game here, or that obviously suspicious people like Jockmcplop and Alakaslam are mafia? I think viewing Vivax as mafia here is quite paranoid, given the much more obvious targets available (Jockmcplop and Alakaslam).

Conclusion

Unfortunately, I failed to confirm anything for certain. However, a lot of things are very, very likely with this claim. These are as follows:
GlowingBear is mafia
Chezinu is town
Koshi is town

And with a few basic associations,
Jockmcplop is mafia
Grackaroni is town
Alakaslam is mafia

I haven't had the time to do this yet, but please, please, please, someone look through GlowingBear's filter. Look at how he and Jockmcplop have been townreading each other since the start of Night 1 for very weak reasons, no matter what evidence is presented. Look at how GlowingBear is so averse to lynching Jockmcplop here. Look how Alakaslam is trying to find the easiest lynch that isn't Jockmcplop, despite Jockmcplop being in his POE mafia list. The associations are strong. Please, please, please heavily consider the following mafia team:

GlowingBear
Jockmcplop
Alakaslam

It's been a pleasure playing with you all. I look forward to hopefully playing together again soon.
+ Show Spoiler [Why did you say this now?] +
+ Show Spoiler [Music] +

On May 07 2020 02:41 Trfel wrote:
Are you counterclaiming? Or just accusing me of fakeclaiming without a second blue claim??

Surprised you didn't go for the "I was framed!" approach honestly.

On May 07 2020 02:48 Trfel wrote:
Since when did you believe Chezinu's claim? o.O