EPTComparing to last game and based on what Jock said post-game I think his posts here are within the bands of what I’d expect for a reasonable town adjustment. My read there is not strong but I do think what rayn has said about him is completely wrong. I’d suggest reading the first few pages without filter diving and see what conclusion you come up with. I’m particularly curious if you think town-rayn would come to the same conclusion and whether you think the aggression is real.
[M][N][72/24]Midnight Sun Mafia - Page 2
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Comparing to last game and based on what Jock said post-game I think his posts here are within the bands of what I’d expect for a reasonable town adjustment. My read there is not strong but I do think what rayn has said about him is completely wrong. I’d suggest reading the first few pages without filter diving and see what conclusion you come up with. I’m particularly curious if you think town-rayn would come to the same conclusion and whether you think the aggression is real. | ||
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On May 20 2019 07:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why would you kill a townie that wants to lynch mafia? You know he’s town? btw I didn’t see anyone else mention this and I’m sad because I wanted a free town read so I’ll just come out and say it myself VE used activity to paint iGrok scummy based on him being replaced last game but actually iGrok was town last game, replaced by slam. I can’t point out the post now because I’m on mobile but 99.999% sure VE’s post was saying this. Seems like it might have just been an honest mistake but VE is quite sharp | ||
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On May 20 2019 07:59 Holyflare wrote: I mean, that's not the reason VE voted or called iGrok scummy in the slightest? He said he didn't like how iGrok called rayn friend for his opening post and then voted rayn for his opening post. There was a whole discussion about it? I didn’t say that. I was just pointing out something. Go read my post again, carefully, then go read VE’s posts (probably from the last page?) again. He makes one post to the effect of something like “iGrok replaced out of last game as mafia” and assuming he is talking about the game we all just played, that is not true. | ||
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On May 20 2019 08:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: why am i anot mafia? why i was mafia in the first place? let's hear it. My read on you hasn’t moved much tbh, in my spreadsheet last night I had you as a coin flip (compared to 25% baseline) . I think ruxxar is just a better lynch and if you’re town you have plenty of activity and potential to shape up, especially if you’re not constantly on edge due to people calling you scum. I don’t often find your reads very useful in general though, and this game you don’t seem to have many yet so it would be nice if you spent some time actually trying to reduce unknowns rather than attack people for doing things you don’t like. | ||
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On May 20 2019 07:19 Calix wrote: Actually you know what? I am calling bullshit on this. This seems way too convenient. VE just HAPPENED to warn us against pushing rayn too much, tried diverting to iGrok, claimed rayn would ruin the game if we kept pushing him, etc. Then rayn just latches onto a bad case against Jock and pushes it with a vastly disproportionate amount of confidence before making a random and completely unwarranted role claim and generally acting like he's lost his shit. Emphasis on the acting. I'm more tempted to think VE/ rayn set this up than anything else. There are lots of 'hints' beforehand that make me suspicious as to how authentic they're being. #shamelesstinfoil Calix I want to hear about the hints you described, can you point them out to me? | ||
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Also I don’t know how anyone can say they are 100% sure on reading Jock either way, especially someone who played last game and witnessed us mislynch him in the presence of virtually identical rhetoric | ||
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On May 20 2019 07:29 disformation wrote: where is jock? or are you withholding that read (i am super curious after you asked everyone to comment on it) until everyone commented on it? -.- What is your read on Jock? And what do you think of Conversion coming in and calling you flaky? | ||
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On May 20 2019 08:31 Conversion wrote: help me out and tell me who you’re lunching today bc all i remember from you is shitting on rayn and saying you’re going to ignore him and im on a phone and lazy are you still on rayn? no, I'm on ruxxar btw anyone find it interesting that koshi confirmed but never posted? | ||
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On May 20 2019 08:34 Conversion wrote: koshi literally has no posts and lazily plays all the time why is he on the list  | ||
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VE, BC while I’m gone sheep me on ruxxar or explain why you don’t want to Also define who’s a thread skimmer/lurker this game and rank them on kill priority | ||
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On May 20 2019 09:45 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm gonna pass on that one. A) You've given literally no reasoning that I can see for your vote aside from "for that one post alone" which, filtering you in isolation, I can't even see which it is. So... B) I filtered ruxxar and found that his posting seems internally consistent, and relatively comprehensive as far as "what you should know about me" posts go. It feels this side of townie to me. I'm not going to rank lurkers on kill priority, that's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard what are you even fucking doing? you're right, I didn't post reasons for ruxxar, mostly because I put too much faith in people actually going back to read his only post of any real substance and it being self-explanatory from his entrance. It's quite simple: On May 20 2019 04:47 ruXxar wrote: sup guys, long time no see. skimmed through the thread, dont remember all the specifics. i dont wanna lynch the active people, cause they make the game fun. - jockmcplop is top town, he speaks from his heart. - hf looks townie, i love when he gets riled up. - VE seems aight, could be deviously smart mafia. - rayn attacking jockmcplop is dumb, and his fumbling to explain his first post was meh, dont make him mafia tho. - bugs looks aigh tish. - i dont like calix. seem stiff and too sure of himself. looks like hes posting with perferct information. already certain of his opinons, and just tries to find the best angle to defend them. ##Vote calix 3 things that stand out: 1. Doesn't want to lynch active people but isn't actively involved either. In fact there's almost a hidden implication that ruxxar doesn't intend to be active in that statement 2. First 5 bullets come off as "I need to post some reads so I can continue skating by so let me summarize some basics and say things others probably would agree with" 3. Calix vote justification looks forced and justification for the sake of justification. When Calix responded by saying "yeah well, it looks like that way because I'm sheeping" ruxxar's only response was to concede that the pronouns were wrong. | ||
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On May 20 2019 09:45 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm gonna pass on that one. A) You've given literally no reasoning that I can see for your vote aside from "for that one post alone" which, filtering you in isolation, I can't even see which it is. So... B) I filtered ruxxar and found that his posting seems internally consistent, and relatively comprehensive as far as "what you should know about me" posts go. It feels this side of townie to me. I'm not going to rank lurkers on kill priority, that's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard what are you even fucking doing? bolded I find really weird btw and BC I want to know what you think. VE to make this a more specific question, I want to ask you: do you think iGrok is a lurker/thread skimmer? ruxxar? disformation? BTW someone like Koshi I would not define as either because he's currently 100% absent. Last game we played with Vivax, who posted twice into accidental modkill (and despite the host mistake was probably on track for one eventually anyway) Koshi, who didn't really do anything either and you shot, and Grack who actually played for real. I think you and I would have both agreed in that game that given no other choices we would have killed Vivax over Rels in a head-to-head comparison despite both having the same number of posts d1. This is what I'm asking you to do now, mostly for my benefit in reading you because at the current rate I think there's a good chance we'll disagree on a fair amount of things. | ||
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On May 20 2019 12:09 VisceraEyes wrote: Then ya I mostly can't help in that regard...I've been almost as absent as you lately. All of the names you listed I have been able to get a read on one way or another in games past or I don't remember playing with them and don't specifically recall if they tended to lurk or not. That their activity in this game is less isn't indicative one way or another to me. my question isn't hinging on past games, I'm asking you to rank them based on their play this game, and based on their play in this game do you think they are lurking/thread skimming/whatever. If you think some number of players fit into that category, however neat, well, or poorly defined that category might be for you, it's important to me esp for day 1 because I think day 1 lynches tend to be very low hit rate and I would rather give a lot of the players in this game time to develop their reads and post enough to reduce the variability that we just hit them on an off day or whatever, especially after we saw what happened last game. Since I feel you're being a bit difficult, I'm going to work out my thoughts for you and put them in a spoiler. If you really think this is a waste of time then go ahead and read the spoiler before responding but I'm trusting you on honor that you'll take my word for it and give your thoughts before getting your opinion tainted by mine. + Show Spoiler + Like just on reputation and posting we've seen so far I wouldn't lynch you, BC, HF, rayn, Artanis, Calix, or Jock today. Of the remaining players at this very moment I'd rule out Koshi because of absence and I don't see anything wrong with Conversion's posts. That leaves 3 players on my lynch list for d1: iGrok disformation ruxxar There is already evidence for iGrok being low on time. Based on what little he's posted so far, this smells exactly the same to me as the Rels lynch from last game. I don't agree on your post about him saying he's "also" friendly because it reads a lot into a single word, and I believe the host business is not alignment indicative. Those are literally the only two pieces of info to go off, so I think moving him from the 25% baseline is not warranted; I'm willing to put him aside along with Koshi. disformation vs ruxxar, I have a strong preference for killing ruxxar because disformation's posts to some degree indicated attempts at trying to figure out the game. He responded to direct questions and he provided a reasonable interpretation of Jock's posts. There are things that might be fishy in his posts but again, low information content, and to me the information that is there indicates town rather than scum. For ruxxar this is not the case, just refer to my previous post on that matter. | ||
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On May 20 2019 08:31 Conversion wrote: help me out and tell me who you’re lunching today bc all i remember from you is shitting on rayn and saying you’re going to ignore him and im on a phone and lazy are you still on rayn? as I responded earlier I'm on ruxxar but I wanted to follow up on this again. I'm happy to make this day between ruxxar and disformation. I posted earlier in response to VE about why I think ruxxar is scum: On May 20 2019 10:44 wherebugsgo wrote: you're right, I didn't post reasons for ruxxar, mostly because I put too much faith in people actually going back to read his only post of any real substance and it being self-explanatory from his entrance. It's quite simple: 3 things that stand out: 1. Doesn't want to lynch active people but isn't actively involved either. In fact there's almost a hidden implication that ruxxar doesn't intend to be active in that statement 2. First 5 bullets come off as "I need to post some reads so I can continue skating by so let me summarize some basics and say things others probably would agree with" 3. Calix vote justification looks forced and justification for the sake of justification. When Calix responded by saying "yeah well, it looks like that way because I'm sheeping" ruxxar's only response was to concede that the pronouns were wrong. I could be convinced on disformation because my read there isn't strong but we'll need to wait a while for EU to wake up again to see his responses. If you want my gut read on disformation feel free to read my spoiler in my last post. In the meanwhile, do you agree or disagree on ruxxar? | ||
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On May 20 2019 13:50 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Honestly bugs as the person who linked the ruxxar post you jumped on as a vote im not going to "sheep you" hes already on my fucking mafia list for his shit. Fuck, his re entry to this thread is also disgustingly bad since then. between him and Calix I think we have a guarenteed mafia (possibly 2, not ruling it out). Disinformation really needs to step it up, but based on day 1 screams scum as of the moment. sorry I actually completely missed the fact that you were on ruxxar even though when I just reread now I remembered those posts. But since we're in agreement let's vote together I can see some merit for wanting to kill Calix but I also see lots of reasons not to kill Calix. IIRC Calix played similar to this when I was scum and Calix was town about a year ago, even did something similar with that colour shading of names (hands up for any of you calling Calix scum, if you thought that particular detail was scummy) and does not seem to be afraid to put up some resistance here. Calix also I think is an asset if town and I don't want to kill potential assets on d1. Now. I know you all hate Rayn for screaming at the top of his lungs about killing jock. You both have (VE and Bugs) has said nothing strikes you as strange however. After reading https://tl.net/forum/mafia/544405-fibonacci-mafia?user=Jockmcplop I am a little suspect. Not going to say hes a priority as of right now, but there is a shot of a real hit based purely on this. I find it unlikely (not impossible) that someone could roll town 3 games in a row and completely change their playstyle 3 games in a row. I don't quite understand what that game has to do with this one. I also don't follow your logic on rolling town 3 games in a row and changing his playstyle 3 games in a row. Here's what's given: 1. We know he changed his playstyle twice already. If anything this just tells us that he's willing to try different things and it's hard to say if this is alignment indicative 2. Last game, he got mislynched because people jumped on him for changing his style and couldn't read him properly, thought he was scum based on him being a bit too abrasive on d1 and not providing any real reads. 3. From the postgame, he admitted he was trying something out and he'll not do that again the next game. I don't remember if he mentioned why he changed his style in the first place, but perhaps he thought that his original approach just didn't work for whatever reason, changed it once, that failed, so now third time's the charm. Collectively our record on meta has been pretty trash so I think there need to be better reasons for wanting to kill Jock than this for me to be convinced. | ||
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My goal from now is to pivot from everyone just throwing around suspicions and trying to get something to stick to a focus on 2-3 players. I think any more is probably too many, and only 1 would probably be risky as well. My order would be Ruxxar -> Disformation -> Calix, with Calix being fairly largely separated; I've actually only listed Calix because others have some decent points I can concede. I think the posts we need from the rest of the players will naturally follow if we funnel the talking in this direction, and we'll have good control over the lynch as well. BTW this is sort of an observation I made when I was based in U.S. timezones and playing with EU players like Palmar but really didn't fully understand it fully until moving to Asia: I think a lot of things that revolve around activity stem from people just not being in the thread at the same time. I was getting a lot of complaints last game for "disappearing" from the thread when I was just asleep or not around, and I'm quite an active player. Right now, the thread seems a bit quiet to me and I have to look at the times and confirm who might be around in order to prevent my mind from going crazy about how X player is not here because of Y scummy reason and not, you know, with the application of Occam's Razor that they're not around just because they can't be. I think we should take advantage of the fact that we have 72 hours in the day; conversational posts are nice when you can help confirm others' reads through questions, but in this game I think consolidating posts will be more helpful. | ||
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On May 20 2019 15:07 Jockmcplop wrote: Fuck you man. I'm here ask anything you want. I'm also grumpy in the mornings. Would you kill ruxxar? If no, why not? What about disformation and Calix? Those are the three options I am presenting today, and if you want my rationale you can check my previous posts. We aren’t killing rayn day 1. | ||
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