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On March 17 2019 04:55 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 04:51 Oatsmaster wrote:
I just want to point out that Wriggles coming hard on me here is 100% mafia play who knows that their only way out of today is to push the lynch on me as hard as possible and since townie looking people have already certified this style of play, aka acro, they dont look weird Oats looking for literally any other lynch is 100% mafia who knows that a mislynch is the same thing as mafia victory. He doesn't care about how he looks coming out of this because if he kamikazes into me scum win
How do you feel that the first person to scumread me was Tube, the person you voted for yesterday?
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On March 17 2019 04:55 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 04:51 Oatsmaster wrote:
I just want to point out that Wriggles coming hard on me here is 100% mafia play who knows that their only way out of today is to push the lynch on me as hard as possible and since townie looking people have already certified this style of play, aka acro, they dont look weird Oats looking for literally any other lynch is 100% mafia who knows that a mislynch is the same thing as mafia victory. He doesn't care about how he looks coming out of this because if he kamikazes into me scum win
So the part where I go, OKAY LETS LYNCH WRIGGLES, is looking for literally any other lynch.
I see.
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On March 17 2019 04:55 Rels wrote:
Exo_: this game, 1% of the thread
Dota 2 Mafia Mafia Killed Day 4 - 6 pages out of 281, or 2.1% of the thread
Im a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 2 - 6 pages out of 281, or 2.1% of the thread
Liquidmania Qualifier #1 Town Vanilla Lynched Day 1 - 3 pages out of 108, or 2.8% of the thread
Hosts Revenge Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 2 - 6 pages out of 172, or 3.5% of the thread
MafiacalFeast I Town [b]Parity Cop Killed Night 3 - 6 pages out of 166, or 3.6% of the thread
Classic Mafia Town Vanilla Killed Night 1 - 4 pages out of 193, or 2% of the thread
TS: this game, 1% of the thread
The New Personality Mafia Mafia Holyflare Killed Night 2 - 3 pages out of 220, or 1.4% of the thread
TL Mafia LXXIII: The Nutcracker Mafia Godfather Endgamed Day 4 - 6 pages out of 88, or 6.8% of the thread
Unoriginal Name Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 2 - 6 pages out of 74, or 8.1% of the thread
TL Mafia LXXIV: Storm Mafia 3 Town Forensics Expert Lynched Day 1 - 3 pages out of 220, or 0.6% of the thread
Dota 2 Mafia Town Wraith King Survived Day 6 - 11 pages out of 382, or 3.9% of the thread
A Wonderful Normal Game of Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 1 - 3 pages out of 81, or 3.7% of the thread
Newbie Student Mafia XXVI Mafia Roleblocker Survived Day 6 - 9 pages out of 158, or 5.7% of the thread
Mafia For Busy People Town Vanilla Survived Day 3 - 2 pages out of 55, or 3.6% of the thread
MafiacalFeast I Town Veteran Survived Day 6 - 12 pages out of 166, or 7.2% of the thread
Medic Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 1 - Cant access the thread??
darthfoley: this game, 2% of the thread
Newbie Student Mafia XXVIII Mafia Vanilla Killed Night 1 - 3 pages out of 109, or 2.8% of the thread
Vendee Globe 16 Mafia Town Vanilla Survived Day 3 - 13 pages out of 126, or 10.3% of the thread
Heroes of the Storm Mafia Town Vanilla Killed Night 1 - 6 pages out of 77, or 7.8% of the thread
Newbie Student Mafia XXVII Town Vanilla Killed Night 1 - 4 pages out of 77, or 4.2% of the thread
Mafia Mafia Mafia Mafia Mafia Vanilla Survived Day 4 - 12 pages out of 68, or 17.6% of the thread
Elementary Mafia Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 4 - 3 pages out of 74, or 3.1% of the thread
Classic Mafia Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 3 - 17 pages out of 193, or 8.8% of the thread
Medic Mafia Town Medic Survived Night 3 - Still can't access for some reason
LOL this is kinda useless
would probably be better to find out the actual thread count at the time of death on calculate it based on that.
I completely dont think its true so im not going to do it but for accuracies sake
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The scum motivation for this would be if we're in a do or die situation like the Professor pointed out, and df is town. This would cement a scum victory if we followed the claimed check blindly.
On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible.
The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show.
Okay lets look at your actual statement wriggles. You propose the scum version. Propose the town version. And then conclude "ahh lets just wait and see"
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On March 17 2019 04:58 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 04:55 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 04:53 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On March 17 2019 04:48 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 04:41 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On March 17 2019 04:30 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 04:28 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Crimson bandit Oatsmaster calls in with the following: On March 17 2019 03:03 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 01:17 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Desperate likely-mafioso Oatsmaster write in with the following nasty bit of slander: On March 16 2019 17:16 Oatsmaster wrote:
Wriggles is mafia
Lets start with this post
[quote]
he doesnt really entertain the idea that Onegu is mafia fakeclaiming 3p seriously, instead wanting to take the claim at face value but like he isnt suspicious at all. Instead, its a really long part of fluff that basically says "meh hes probably survivor for no reason and I dont want to lynch him today"
scummy Your host does seriously entertain that Onegu can be scum, which is why the bulk of the above transcript is devoted to the idea that the claim doesn't make much sense for a real 3P and that there is definite scum motivation to make that claim. We think he's more likely scum than survivor, but on the chance he is survivor, we'd rather not give scum essentially a free round of night kills. Given Professor Acrofales' analysis, we need to lynch into scum multiple times with no mislynches. We'd rather not take the chance on Onegu when we believe there are other scum to lynch who we feel just as strongly on. That's the whole point about if our reads aren't great coming in to the second or third scum lynch we can kill him then, since the expected value works out. [quote]
waste of time post If that post that took a minute to write was a waste of time, what does that make your question? Please read the thread in the future, and you won't need to waste so much of other people's time. =/ [quote]
okay so this post, right before this wriggles seems to "know" that df is mafia with a lot of confidence
[quote]
right so like its a joke but that comes from no question at all that he thinks DF is mafia because of the red check from mocsta
In the post analyzing mocsta, he states that the claim is off but he doesnt commit to a read on mocsta because of that and that seems to me like a lot of hedging kinda seeing where the town read him and then commit to that read. Like he basically says "shrug, i dunno its weird, dont look at me i dont know". Again, another post that looks good but says absolutely nothing.
Im just gonna stop here for now, but throughout his filter, theres a lack of like interest to actually get the people he thinks is scum lynched. He kinda waffles a bit, plays a bit of mentor advice role but legitimately just hides in the shadows. His show is just a way to fluff up his posts, and if you notice, for the most part he doesnt actually progress anything in his show. Its basically him answering some questions and peacing out. So he is putting his opinion in the thread but not actually using it for any reason whatsoever to look townie.
Theres a reason Palmar wanted him to die.
this is the lynch for today
##vote wriggles
We have a town read on mocsta, which if you don't know that seems to go back to not actually following the show very closely. This read was made before the cop claim came out. That post details that despite the claim, we still thought mocsta was a member of our fair town. There could be mafia motivation to the claim, but based on our earlier read and the inconsistencies in the claim, we thought it was some sort of ploy to get people behind a DF lynch. As for the last point, outside of weekends we have only a few hours to actively post in the evening. This also happens to be when a lot of people are away or asleep, thus the title of the show. We're playing the game by trying to advance reads, comment on current events, and basically be an open book to any question we're asked in our fan mail. If we don't look like we're pushing lynches that's because we're not, in the sense that we can't be around to spam "lynch X" for the four hours before the lynch. If people don't read the thread or want to remember what was written further back than a few hours ago, we can't really do anything about that. The claim needs to be verified because something smells fishy, means that you thought its some sort of ploy from town? Your words and your explanation afterwards don’t make sense. I really don’t care why you decided that this format is how you want to interact with the game, I care that you come in, answer some questions and then not use any time at all to promote your lynch targets. There’s no proactivity in your play, it’s all reactive. Like it’s actually literally all reactive. Which is extremely scummy because you want to blend in and make sure that you react appropriately and not take risks in being proactive Oats doesn't like reading, or more likely is scum lying through their teeth, so here's the quote from the original post: "On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible." This came out before mocsta admitted to the fake claim. We've been pro-active in some ways for this game. We've been the only one who was really pushing your scum buddy Tubesock until the last lynch cycle. We were also one of the few people taking heat off of people we had town reads on by dismantling the shoddy and clumsy cases being made against them. Too bad this didn't work for Chezinu, but let's look at the wagon, shall we? Take your pick of Pandain or Onegu for scum: On March 14 2019 08:00 Dandel Ion wrote:
Day Four final Vote Count
Chezinu (7): Onegu, Rels, sicklucker, darthfoley, Grackaroni, LighningStrike, Vivax
Tubesock (7): Mocsta, Mr. Wiggles, Jockmcplop, Chezinu, Fecalfeast, Acrofales, Alakaslam
Onegu (3): Meapak_Ziphh, ExO_, Pandain
Meapak_Ziphh (1): Oatsmaster
Oatsmaster (1): tubesock
Not voting (0):
Actually, Chezinu is lynched.
Please let us know if you notice any mistakes. The deadline is Wednesday, Mar 13 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in . We've got half the scum team pushing Chez, and then your buddy about to get lynched voting you uselessly instead of doing anything to help town. You summed up your post on mocsta with that line so im talking about that line. Not the rest of the literal waffle in your post. I wasnt in thread when chez got all those votes anyway, when I left it was 7 tube 4 onegu 3 chez 2 mz stop saying that makes me scum because i wasnt there You introduced the word fishy, scum. "The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show." Of course mocsta needs to clarify the claim, because he claimed two different checks! It smells off, because it was probably a fake claim. Then guess what? mocsta came in and said it was a fake claim, claim clarified! DFs not happening, so you'll do. Die. Im sorry, this is what I actually said he doesnt commit to a read on mocsta because of that and that seems to me like a lot of hedging kinda seeing where the town read him and then commit to that read. Like he basically says "shrug, i dunno its weird, dont look at me i dont know". Again, another post that looks good but says absolutely nothing.
smells off == smells fishy, same parlance. I feel like you are trying to twist what I said to fit your narrative. This omgus push is nice though I read you as scum last cycle, but wanted to flip DF first. What I said is pretty unambiguous, and now you're floundering because I'm quoting instead of going with your paraphrasing well yes its unambiguously bad which is what I pointed out. You are sitting on the fence with mocsta going, "i dunno man its just weird thats all". What part of hard on me do you not understand? Definitely scum. You can't read if you think "This could be scum, but I read mocsta as town and think he's fake claiming for whatever weird personal reason" is ambiguous
thats not what you said though
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Day Five Vote Count
Oatsmaster (7): Acrofales, Mocsta, Jockmcplop, Rels, Maepak_Ziphh, Mr. Wiggles
Mr. Wiggles (3): Oatsmaster, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast
Mocsta (1): Pandain
Pandain (1): Tubesock
Maepak_Zipph (1): darthfoley
Not voting (3): Alakaslam, ExO_, Onegu
Alright this is the current votecount, slam and exo i wanna say are not coming back. Everyone else vote for wiggles thanks
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On March 17 2019 05:07 LightningStrike wrote:
ugh I voting MZ atm not wiggles oats lmao....
well clearly thats just a predictor of the future
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On March 17 2019 05:05 Oatsmaster wrote:
Day Five Vote Count
Oatsmaster (7): Acrofales, Mocsta, Jockmcplop, Rels, Maepak_Ziphh, Mr. Wiggles
Mr. Wiggles (3): Oatsmaster, Tubesock, Fecalfeast
Maepak_Zipph (2): darthfoley, LightningStrike
Mocsta (1): Pandain
Not voting (3): Alakaslam, ExO_, Onegu
Alright this is the current votecount, slam and exo i wanna say are not coming back. Everyone else vote for wiggles thanks
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On March 17 2019 05:19 Onegu wrote:
Voting oats for now
##Vote Oats
Onegu pls
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On March 17 2019 05:22 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 17:16 Oatsmaster wrote:Wriggles is mafiaLets start with this post On March 15 2019 11:56 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
In recent news, suspected mafia accomplice Onegu has claimed the role of 3rd Party Survivor. Your host is pleased that their read of 'not-town' turned out correct. However, there still remains the matter of determining the absolute truth in this case.
We are not sure that it made sense for Onegu to claim 3rd party at night. There's no threat of lynch at that point, and it is doubtful scum would shoot them given the general suspicion surrounding their business in the town. So, what's the point of the claim at that time? Is it because the claim had been previously planned by scum and they were nervous in wanting to post after the lynch? Time will tell. This is yet another point added to a growing pile of inconsistencies surrounding Onegu's claimed allegiance.
Now, if our listeners would indulge us as we take a trip down a line of inquiry smelling of fine wine, we can theorise as to the possible scum motivations of Onegu's claim.
From the reads stated in calls to the show, Onegu was widely regarded as being a good lynch candidate and a likely member of Liquidia's most notorious crime family. Without a doubt, the pressure would have been on today. So, claiming 3rd party at this point allows Onegu to take himself out of the pool of suspects and buy more time. Given that town is likely on the brink of failure and needs to lynch correctly several times in a row (see professor Acrofales' excellent analysis) this provides benefit to scum since town will now be looking into their weaker reads, where the chance of mislynch is higher. Given that town's reads are likely to become more accurate over time, this gives a higher chance of success for scum than if we had simply proceeded with the Onegu lynch directly.
With this being said, we are still evaluating how to handle Onegu. He is surely not a member of our town, but is he a threat? After the events of last night, we may have a sure lock on another scum candidate, so this question can probably be put on the back burner for now.
We think it may be in our best interest to lynch him if we find ourselves in muddy waters in the next few cycles, but we can likely leave him be for today. he doesnt really entertain the idea that Onegu is mafia fakeclaiming 3p seriously, instead wanting to take the claim at face value but like he isnt suspicious at all. Instead, its a really long part of fluff that basically says "meh hes probably survivor for no reason and I dont want to lynch him today" scummyOn March 15 2019 12:02 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Suspected criminal mastermind Oatsmaster calls in with the following question: On March 15 2019 11:43 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 15 2019 11:41 darthfoley wrote:On March 15 2019 11:31 LightningStrike wrote:
Moscta it does matter only because if it's a red check we just lynch them today and if they not well you get the picture but I assuming a red check because you going to just park your vote there.
##Vote: Darthfoley Lol he didn't vote me because he redchecked me. He didn't even check me. He's voted me because I haven't given a shit about this game and been wrong one more time than he has (I wasn't on the Sent wagon). Lynching me in LYLO for silly reasons would however, cap off this shit show of a town Why is it lylo? We would direct their attention to the two recent journal articles published by esteemed citizen Professor Acrofales in the Liquidia Journal of Criminology: On March 14 2019 17:54 Acrofales wrote:
Tomorrow there's going to be 15 ppl alive if the KP stays the same. Pretty sure if you don't lynch scum, it's over:
Formula 1: #scum/2 rounded up (traitor doesn't count)
10 town vs 5 scum
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 8v4
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 6v3
Lynch scum, kill 1 town: 5v2
Breathing space: town bought themselves a final mislynch.
If you lynch town:
Lynch town, kill 3 town: 6v5
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 4v4 and it's over.
So HAVE TO kill 3 scum in a row.
Formula 2: flat 3 KP, unknown number of mafia:
15-X vs X
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 12 - X vs X - 1.
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 9 - X vs X - 2.
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 6 - X vs X - 3.
Lunch scum, kill 3 town??? 3- X vs X - 4.
This obviously cannot continue and the last scum must be dead here, so X <= 4 in this scenario.
X < 4 would make the scumread too small for the game, IMHO. So balance says that scum should be exactly 4 here, and to win, town needs to kill all scum in a row, starting now.
So what I'll do tonight is give you a list of the 4 scummiest shits and you lynch them in order. If KP stays 3, then you are in the bottom scenario and every day is lylo. If you're in the top scenario, you can take a brief breath after killing the three scummers.
Obviously I'm expecting to be dead tomorrow, but maybe there's a backup medic. Who knows. On March 15 2019 03:41 Acrofales wrote:Time for setup speculation part 2, now with 3p! I looked over onegu's filter and most of my reasons for scumreading him is his utter disinterest in finding scum. That is totally explainable as 3p. However, it's also totally explainable as scum. So here goes: If onegu is scum, see my previous post, and you just gotta kill him. If onegu is a survivor: Formula 1, nothing changes, except that instead of it being 5v2 after lynching 3 scum, its 4v2v1. Imho, always lynch onegu at this point, unless you caught a 4th scummer redhanded doing scummy-as-fuck stuff. Otherwise, you can't distinguish between 5v2 and 4v2v1, and lynching town in the 4v2v1 situation means town loses. Lynching the claimed 3p is a "safe play". He is definitely not town, as town doesn't claim 3p unless they want to lose the game, and he might just be scum trying to escape. Note that it isn't safe to lynch onegu the 3p *before* you get down to the single NK in this formula. Formula 2: Without a medic, we have already lost: 14-X vs X vs 1 11-X vs X - 1 vs 1 8-X vs X - 2 vs 1 5 - X vs X - 3 vs 1 If X = 4 this is endgame. So either FF blows up a scummer with a bomb (meaning scum are a bunch of fricking idiots) or we still have a medic floating about. In either case, if we get the medic save, it is never safe to lynch onegu the 3p. It is always necessary to lynch onegu the scum. At some point town is gonna have to decide what onegu is.
Onegu the SK. This scenario just seems really really unlikely. Non-compulsive SKs are such a broken role that I don't think we got one. Which means that *either* the SK stacked KP 3 times, for which we only have circumstantial evidence on N1, or the scumteam has only 2 KP. Neither of these scenarios seems likely at all. So I'd rule out this scenario. Moreover, I actually checked the OP, and it says: The town's win condition:
The town wins when all mafia are eliminated. This seems pretty clearcut. There is no malevolent 3p in the game, or this wincon wouldn't work. So onegu is not an SK. Your hosts at the Dead Zone Show tend to agree with this analysis, and at least the general sentiment that we must try our hardest to lynch into scum. There should be no more talk of throw-away lynches to thin lurkers or bad players at this point. waste of time post On March 15 2019 12:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ever-faithful listener and #1 Dead Zone Show fan LightningStrike calls in with the following question: On March 15 2019 11:40 LightningStrike wrote:
Dear Faithful host:
What you make of Moscta's claim and actions from today?
Sincerely, LS We're still trying to wrap our heads around the claim. We agree on the general scumminess of darthfoley and will be voting there as we figure out the rest of the day. We'll be interested in seeing any letter addressed from Professor Acrofales regarding the target of today's lynch. During the night cycle he argued strongly that we need to lynch Oatsmaster, and we'd like to see some more reasoning for that target compared to df. Now for the claim itself, we're not sure whether we believe it. There was some weirdness, a so-called 'ploy', around last night's check. Similarly, the timing of the claim was odd. Why post a claim with almost the full night ahead so that scum can decide whether to shoot you? mocsta was around for just before the flips, so that would have been the more logical time for the claim to come out. The scum motivation for this would be if we're in a do or die situation like the Professor pointed out, and df is town. This would cement a scum victory if we followed the claimed check blindly. On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible. The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show. okay so this post, right before this wriggles seems to "know" that df is mafia with a lot of confidence On March 15 2019 12:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Though, on reflection, is that a slip from our red friend DarthFoley?  right so like its a joke but that comes from no question at all that he thinks DF is mafia because of the red check from mocsta In the post analyzing mocsta, he states that the claim is off but he doesnt commit to a read on mocsta because of that and that seems to me like a lot of hedging kinda seeing where the town read him and then commit to that read. Like he basically says "shrug, i dunno its weird, dont look at me i dont know". Again, another post that looks good but says absolutely nothing. Im just gonna stop here for now, but throughout his filter, theres a lack of like interest to actually get the people he thinks is scum lynched. He kinda waffles a bit, plays a bit of mentor advice role but legitimately just hides in the shadows. His show is just a way to fluff up his posts, and if you notice, for the most part he doesnt actually progress anything in his show. Its basically him answering some questions and peacing out. So he is putting his opinion in the thread but not actually using it for any reason whatsoever to look townie. Theres a reason Palmar wanted him to die. this is the lynch for today ##vote wriggles Like, this is a lot of words, but this is so bad. For context, before that case, the last Wiggles' posts spree was these 7 posts: + Show Spoiler +On March 15 2019 11:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Good evening to our long time fans and first time listeners alike. You're tuned in to the Dead Zone Show, Liquidia's number one and only late night radio program. I'm your host Mr. Wiggles, and it's truly a pleasure to still be with you here tonight, whether you're patiently counting down the time until blood runs red in the streets once again or frantically looking to avert your scum buddies' imminent slaughter. We'll be opening the line up right away to our dedicated callers; for the first time in Dead Zone Show history we find our fan mail bag empty. We hope you enjoy the program. + Show Spoiler + On March 15 2019 11:56 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
In recent news, suspected mafia accomplice Onegu has claimed the role of 3rd Party Survivor. Your host is pleased that their read of 'not-town' turned out correct. However, there still remains the matter of determining the absolute truth in this case.
We are not sure that it made sense for Onegu to claim 3rd party at night. There's no threat of lynch at that point, and it is doubtful scum would shoot them given the general suspicion surrounding their business in the town. So, what's the point of the claim at that time? Is it because the claim had been previously planned by scum and they were nervous in wanting to post after the lynch? Time will tell. This is yet another point added to a growing pile of inconsistencies surrounding Onegu's claimed allegiance.
Now, if our listeners would indulge us as we take a trip down a line of inquiry smelling of fine wine, we can theorise as to the possible scum motivations of Onegu's claim.
From the reads stated in calls to the show, Onegu was widely regarded as being a good lynch candidate and a likely member of Liquidia's most notorious crime family. Without a doubt, the pressure would have been on today. So, claiming 3rd party at this point allows Onegu to take himself out of the pool of suspects and buy more time. Given that town is likely on the brink of failure and needs to lynch correctly several times in a row (see professor Acrofales' excellent analysis) this provides benefit to scum since town will now be looking into their weaker reads, where the chance of mislynch is higher. Given that town's reads are likely to become more accurate over time, this gives a higher chance of success for scum than if we had simply proceeded with the Onegu lynch directly.
With this being said, we are still evaluating how to handle Onegu. He is surely not a member of our town, but is he a threat? After the events of last night, we may have a sure lock on another scum candidate, so this question can probably be put on the back burner for now.
We think it may be in our best interest to lynch him if we find ourselves in muddy waters in the next few cycles, but we can likely leave him be for today. On March 15 2019 12:02 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Suspected criminal mastermind Oatsmaster calls in with the following question: Show nested quote +On March 15 2019 11:43 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 15 2019 11:41 darthfoley wrote:On March 15 2019 11:31 LightningStrike wrote:
Moscta it does matter only because if it's a red check we just lynch them today and if they not well you get the picture but I assuming a red check because you going to just park your vote there.
##Vote: Darthfoley Lol he didn't vote me because he redchecked me. He didn't even check me. He's voted me because I haven't given a shit about this game and been wrong one more time than he has (I wasn't on the Sent wagon). Lynching me in LYLO for silly reasons would however, cap off this shit show of a town Why is it lylo? We would direct their attention to the two recent journal articles published by esteemed citizen Professor Acrofales in the Liquidia Journal of Criminology: Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 17:54 Acrofales wrote:
Tomorrow there's going to be 15 ppl alive if the KP stays the same. Pretty sure if you don't lynch scum, it's over:
Formula 1: #scum/2 rounded up (traitor doesn't count)
10 town vs 5 scum
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 8v4
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 6v3
Lynch scum, kill 1 town: 5v2
Breathing space: town bought themselves a final mislynch.
If you lynch town:
Lynch town, kill 3 town: 6v5
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 4v4 and it's over.
So HAVE TO kill 3 scum in a row.
Formula 2: flat 3 KP, unknown number of mafia:
15-X vs X
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 12 - X vs X - 1.
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 9 - X vs X - 2.
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 6 - X vs X - 3.
Lunch scum, kill 3 town??? 3- X vs X - 4.
This obviously cannot continue and the last scum must be dead here, so X <= 4 in this scenario.
X < 4 would make the scumread too small for the game, IMHO. So balance says that scum should be exactly 4 here, and to win, town needs to kill all scum in a row, starting now.
So what I'll do tonight is give you a list of the 4 scummiest shits and you lynch them in order. If KP stays 3, then you are in the bottom scenario and every day is lylo. If you're in the top scenario, you can take a brief breath after killing the three scummers.
Obviously I'm expecting to be dead tomorrow, but maybe there's a backup medic. Who knows. Show nested quote +On March 15 2019 03:41 Acrofales wrote:Time for setup speculation part 2, now with 3p! I looked over onegu's filter and most of my reasons for scumreading him is his utter disinterest in finding scum. That is totally explainable as 3p. However, it's also totally explainable as scum. So here goes: If onegu is scum, see my previous post, and you just gotta kill him. If onegu is a survivor: Formula 1, nothing changes, except that instead of it being 5v2 after lynching 3 scum, its 4v2v1. Imho, always lynch onegu at this point, unless you caught a 4th scummer redhanded doing scummy-as-fuck stuff. Otherwise, you can't distinguish between 5v2 and 4v2v1, and lynching town in the 4v2v1 situation means town loses. Lynching the claimed 3p is a "safe play". He is definitely not town, as town doesn't claim 3p unless they want to lose the game, and he might just be scum trying to escape. Note that it isn't safe to lynch onegu the 3p *before* you get down to the single NK in this formula. Formula 2: Without a medic, we have already lost: 14-X vs X vs 1 11-X vs X - 1 vs 1 8-X vs X - 2 vs 1 5 - X vs X - 3 vs 1 If X = 4 this is endgame. So either FF blows up a scummer with a bomb (meaning scum are a bunch of fricking idiots) or we still have a medic floating about. In either case, if we get the medic save, it is never safe to lynch onegu the 3p. It is always necessary to lynch onegu the scum. At some point town is gonna have to decide what onegu is.
Onegu the SK. This scenario just seems really really unlikely. Non-compulsive SKs are such a broken role that I don't think we got one. Which means that *either* the SK stacked KP 3 times, for which we only have circumstantial evidence on N1, or the scumteam has only 2 KP. Neither of these scenarios seems likely at all. So I'd rule out this scenario. Moreover, I actually checked the OP, and it says: The town's win condition:
The town wins when all mafia are eliminated. This seems pretty clearcut. There is no malevolent 3p in the game, or this wincon wouldn't work. So onegu is not an SK. Your hosts at the Dead Zone Show tend to agree with this analysis, and at least the general sentiment that we must try our hardest to lynch into scum. There should be no more talk of throw-away lynches to thin lurkers or bad players at this point. On March 15 2019 12:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Though, on reflection, is that a slip from our red friend DarthFoley? On March 15 2019 12:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ever-faithful listener and #1 Dead Zone Show fan LightningStrike calls in with the following question: Show nested quote +On March 15 2019 11:40 LightningStrike wrote:
Dear Faithful host:
What you make of Moscta's claim and actions from today?
Sincerely, LS We're still trying to wrap our heads around the claim. We agree on the general scumminess of darthfoley and will be voting there as we figure out the rest of the day. We'll be interested in seeing any letter addressed from Professor Acrofales regarding the target of today's lynch. During the night cycle he argued strongly that we need to lynch Oatsmaster, and we'd like to see some more reasoning for that target compared to df. Now for the claim itself, we're not sure whether we believe it. There was some weirdness, a so-called 'ploy', around last night's check. Similarly, the timing of the claim was odd. Why post a claim with almost the full night ahead so that scum can decide whether to shoot you? mocsta was around for just before the flips, so that would have been the more logical time for the claim to come out. The scum motivation for this would be if we're in a do or die situation like the Professor pointed out, and df is town. This would cement a scum victory if we followed the claimed check blindly. On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible. The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show. On March 15 2019 12:24 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Death row inmate darthfoley calls in with the following: Show nested quote +On March 15 2019 12:05 darthfoley wrote:On March 15 2019 12:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Though, on reflection, is that a slip from our red friend DarthFoley? Yes lynch me and find out On March 15 2019 13:36 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
We'll be shutting down the lines early for tonight's episode of the Dead Zone Show to catch some shut eye. Sweet dreams Liquidia. Remember to send in your letters so we can read them on air live during the next show.
We'll see you tomorrow evening! And what do we find in Oats' case? 4 out of the 7 posts are used to justify his scumread on Wiggles. It looks like he just opened his filter, went to the last page, and made a case with what he found. Then his conclusion starts with: "Im just gonna stop here for now, but throughout his filter, theres a lack of like interest to actually get the people he thinks is scum lynched" Stop where? You just quoted his few last posts, you didn't show anything that proved you went "throughout his filter".
Nah dude I should go to two weeks ago to make the case for today right? I’ll do it later if you want to see if I’m right. Which I am
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On March 17 2019 05:15 Rels wrote:I hate this Oats / Tubesock duo trying to deflect the lynch. Scums are showing face Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 04:21 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 17 2019 04:09 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:06 Onegu wrote:On March 17 2019 04:05 Tubesock wrote:
I think Acrofales is the only real blue left. Maybe either FF or Rels too it not both. Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember... I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago. I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive. Why are you more persuaded by the wiggles case than the oats case Tube? I don’t think Wiggles has played towny. I started disliking him once he started doing the radio show, but he was getting the benefit of the doubt because we voted similarly. But recently I feel like he’s following sentiment. I thought Oatsmaster was scum for sure for awhile. My doubts started when he didn’t kill me the day we lynched Chezinu. He had every opportunity and plenty of justifications, but he stayed on you. Then kept me in his scum lists. It weirded me out a bit, and this day cycle I think I like most his posts. Except the ones where he tells Acro to just believe him or pull his head out. But town people seem to like saying that shit too. This is it? First, what does it change that he stayed on Meapak instead of you? If you're town, maybe his vote would have been the difference between you dying or a town veteran dying; does it matter? Second, I don't see what you're finding good about his posts. He's clearly just trying to survive, he picked a target and is trying to get him. His "case" was cherry-pick 4 back-to-back recent Wiggles posts then pasting the convenient conclusion of "Wiggles is passive".
You don’t seem suspicious
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On March 17 2019 05:26 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 05:15 Rels wrote:I hate this Oats / Tubesock duo trying to deflect the lynch. Scums are showing face On March 17 2019 04:21 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 17 2019 04:09 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:06 Onegu wrote:On March 17 2019 04:05 Tubesock wrote:
I think Acrofales is the only real blue left. Maybe either FF or Rels too it not both. Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember... I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago. I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive. Why are you more persuaded by the wiggles case than the oats case Tube? I don’t think Wiggles has played towny. I started disliking him once he started doing the radio show, but he was getting the benefit of the doubt because we voted similarly. But recently I feel like he’s following sentiment. I thought Oatsmaster was scum for sure for awhile. My doubts started when he didn’t kill me the day we lynched Chezinu. He had every opportunity and plenty of justifications, but he stayed on you. Then kept me in his scum lists. It weirded me out a bit, and this day cycle I think I like most his posts. Except the ones where he tells Acro to just believe him or pull his head out. But town people seem to like saying that shit too. This is it? First, what does it change that he stayed on Meapak instead of you? If you're town, maybe his vote would have been the difference between you dying or a town veteran dying; does it matter? Second, I don't see what you're finding good about his posts. He's clearly just trying to survive, he picked a target and is trying to get him. His "case" was cherry-pick 4 back-to-back recent Wiggles posts then pasting the convenient conclusion of "Wiggles is passive". You don’t seem suspicious
Of wriggles
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On March 11 2019 14:28 Mr. Wiggles wrote:We've got Oatsmaster on the line, who says: Show nested quote +On March 11 2019 14:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
We don’t lynch the claims because it makes 0 sense for the claims to actually claim Show nested quote +On March 11 2019 14:12 Oatsmaster wrote:
Like acro completely didn’t need to claim here, his shot was anonymous and yeah cmon. Ace proposing nonsense and not thinking this through is super scummy We agree with this sentiment. If Acro was fake-claiming and had some other kind of vig/KP role, there's basically no reason to come out with that explanation. Further, if the role was a lie as town or scum, there were several better targets for a KP on N2. As scum, he doesn't necessarily have to claim the KP, and could have kept it a secret. On the other hand, killing Damdred doesn't exactly scream scum motivation, especially if the role claim is truthful. That's why the claim comes out as a wash for your host, and we prefer to base our read on Acro based on his past behaviour. We agree lynching into him would be silly. We hope that sometimes listener Ace will come to his senses about this matter.
Interestingly, wriggles implies that Ace is town and is just spouting nonsense like he knows too much. Why did you think ace was town wriggles?
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On March 17 2019 05:33 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 05:22 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:19 Onegu wrote:
Voting oats for now
##Vote Oats Onegu pls Get a big enough wagon...
It’s the second biggest wagon what do you want
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On March 17 2019 05:28 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 05:26 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:26 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:15 Rels wrote:I hate this Oats / Tubesock duo trying to deflect the lynch. Scums are showing face On March 17 2019 04:21 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 17 2019 04:09 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:06 Onegu wrote:On March 17 2019 04:05 Tubesock wrote:
I think Acrofales is the only real blue left. Maybe either FF or Rels too it not both. Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember... I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago. I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive. Why are you more persuaded by the wiggles case than the oats case Tube? I don’t think Wiggles has played towny. I started disliking him once he started doing the radio show, but he was getting the benefit of the doubt because we voted similarly. But recently I feel like he’s following sentiment. I thought Oatsmaster was scum for sure for awhile. My doubts started when he didn’t kill me the day we lynched Chezinu. He had every opportunity and plenty of justifications, but he stayed on you. Then kept me in his scum lists. It weirded me out a bit, and this day cycle I think I like most his posts. Except the ones where he tells Acro to just believe him or pull his head out. But town people seem to like saying that shit too. This is it? First, what does it change that he stayed on Meapak instead of you? If you're town, maybe his vote would have been the difference between you dying or a town veteran dying; does it matter? Second, I don't see what you're finding good about his posts. He's clearly just trying to survive, he picked a target and is trying to get him. His "case" was cherry-pick 4 back-to-back recent Wiggles posts then pasting the convenient conclusion of "Wiggles is passive". You don’t seem suspicious Of wriggles yep, I think he's town. Why are you not suspicious of TS making a 180 on his read on you for bad reasons? Everything that made TS scum yesterday still makes him scum today.
Because he doesn’t want to lynch me anymore? We are at a game state where mafia 100% want to lynch me so anyone who doesn’t want to lynch me is immediately like way more townie
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On March 17 2019 05:28 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 05:26 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:26 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:15 Rels wrote:I hate this Oats / Tubesock duo trying to deflect the lynch. Scums are showing face On March 17 2019 04:21 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 17 2019 04:09 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:06 Onegu wrote:On March 17 2019 04:05 Tubesock wrote:
I think Acrofales is the only real blue left. Maybe either FF or Rels too it not both. Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember... I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago. I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive. Why are you more persuaded by the wiggles case than the oats case Tube? I don’t think Wiggles has played towny. I started disliking him once he started doing the radio show, but he was getting the benefit of the doubt because we voted similarly. But recently I feel like he’s following sentiment. I thought Oatsmaster was scum for sure for awhile. My doubts started when he didn’t kill me the day we lynched Chezinu. He had every opportunity and plenty of justifications, but he stayed on you. Then kept me in his scum lists. It weirded me out a bit, and this day cycle I think I like most his posts. Except the ones where he tells Acro to just believe him or pull his head out. But town people seem to like saying that shit too. This is it? First, what does it change that he stayed on Meapak instead of you? If you're town, maybe his vote would have been the difference between you dying or a town veteran dying; does it matter? Second, I don't see what you're finding good about his posts. He's clearly just trying to survive, he picked a target and is trying to get him. His "case" was cherry-pick 4 back-to-back recent Wiggles posts then pasting the convenient conclusion of "Wiggles is passive". You don’t seem suspicious Of wriggles yep, I think he's town. Why are you not suspicious of TS making a 180 on his read on you for bad reasons? Everything that made TS scum yesterday still makes him scum today.
Anyway so you kinda brushed aside the case without giving a real reason why it’s bad. Do you think wriggles has been proactive? Do you think that those dead zone posts are good posts and why?
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On March 17 2019 05:44 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 05:39 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:28 Rels wrote:On March 17 2019 05:26 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:26 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:15 Rels wrote:I hate this Oats / Tubesock duo trying to deflect the lynch. Scums are showing face On March 17 2019 04:21 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 17 2019 04:09 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:06 Onegu wrote:
[quote]
Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember... I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago. I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive. Why are you more persuaded by the wiggles case than the oats case Tube? I don’t think Wiggles has played towny. I started disliking him once he started doing the radio show, but he was getting the benefit of the doubt because we voted similarly. But recently I feel like he’s following sentiment. I thought Oatsmaster was scum for sure for awhile. My doubts started when he didn’t kill me the day we lynched Chezinu. He had every opportunity and plenty of justifications, but he stayed on you. Then kept me in his scum lists. It weirded me out a bit, and this day cycle I think I like most his posts. Except the ones where he tells Acro to just believe him or pull his head out. But town people seem to like saying that shit too. This is it? First, what does it change that he stayed on Meapak instead of you? If you're town, maybe his vote would have been the difference between you dying or a town veteran dying; does it matter? Second, I don't see what you're finding good about his posts. He's clearly just trying to survive, he picked a target and is trying to get him. His "case" was cherry-pick 4 back-to-back recent Wiggles posts then pasting the convenient conclusion of "Wiggles is passive". You don’t seem suspicious Of wriggles yep, I think he's town. Why are you not suspicious of TS making a 180 on his read on you for bad reasons? Everything that made TS scum yesterday still makes him scum today. Anyway so you kinda brushed aside the case without giving a real reason why it’s bad. Do you think wriggles has been proactive? Do you think that those dead zone posts are good posts and why? I've explained exactly why it's bad lol I think his dead zone posts are pretty good. He's clearly having fun and playing his own little game, but he's not hiding behind it to not give his thoughts. His logic is easy to follow and makes sense.
You’ve said that the creation of the case was bad but not the content.
That’s not the point of my case, the point is that hes not doing anything with it. Mafia have logic and they don’t want to hide their thoughts. They just don’t want to lynch mafia. Like thats their only goal. And wriggles has done nothing to lynch mafia
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On March 17 2019 05:48 darthfoley wrote:
Maybe I’m too far down the rabbit hole tunneling but the lack of genuine conversation after I cased MZ and hyperfocus on Oats/Wiggles makes me think I’ve got it
You may have got it, we aren’t lynching mz today to vote for wriggles, the guy mz is defending
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On March 17 2019 05:51 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 05:38 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:28 Rels wrote:On March 17 2019 05:26 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:26 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 17 2019 05:15 Rels wrote:I hate this Oats / Tubesock duo trying to deflect the lynch. Scums are showing face On March 17 2019 04:21 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 17 2019 04:09 Tubesock wrote:On March 17 2019 04:06 Onegu wrote:
[quote]
Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember... I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago. I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive. Why are you more persuaded by the wiggles case than the oats case Tube? I don’t think Wiggles has played towny. I started disliking him once he started doing the radio show, but he was getting the benefit of the doubt because we voted similarly. But recently I feel like he’s following sentiment. I thought Oatsmaster was scum for sure for awhile. My doubts started when he didn’t kill me the day we lynched Chezinu. He had every opportunity and plenty of justifications, but he stayed on you. Then kept me in his scum lists. It weirded me out a bit, and this day cycle I think I like most his posts. Except the ones where he tells Acro to just believe him or pull his head out. But town people seem to like saying that shit too. This is it? First, what does it change that he stayed on Meapak instead of you? If you're town, maybe his vote would have been the difference between you dying or a town veteran dying; does it matter? Second, I don't see what you're finding good about his posts. He's clearly just trying to survive, he picked a target and is trying to get him. His "case" was cherry-pick 4 back-to-back recent Wiggles posts then pasting the convenient conclusion of "Wiggles is passive". You don’t seem suspicious Of wriggles yep, I think he's town. Why are you not suspicious of TS making a 180 on his read on you for bad reasons? Everything that made TS scum yesterday still makes him scum today. Because he doesn’t want to lynch me anymore? We are at a game state where mafia 100% want to lynch me so anyone who doesn’t want to lynch me is immediately like way more townie So either the people who want you dead are or aren't scum, which is it oats? Bc at this point you've said both things in the past few hours.
People that don’t want me dead aren’t scum.
Some of the people that want me dead are scum
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EPT![[image loading]](https://media.giphy.com/media/2b9rJsvqoqNxe/giphy.gif)
