EPTI haven’t played mafia in ~5 years but I’m interested to give it another go
Newbie Student Mafia XXIX
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
I haven’t played mafia in ~5 years but I’m interested to give it another go | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
I don’t know anyone particularly well so if any of you can add meta reads to what I’m seeing I would appreciate the help. My meta knowledge is, at best, deeply outdated. I believe that Koshi is the best lynch of the people who have posted this far. His most recent post shows that he is aware of how he appears and is nervous about it and is trying to fit in to the town atmosphere. Kaley seems most town to me, I like his image post. It shows a carefree mindset which I believe is hard to fake as scum. Koshi, Vivax and Kaley - the three of you have all posted in the past hour so I assume you are still here. Koshi please respond to my Kaley read. Kaley please respond to my Koshi read. Vivax please respond to both. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Do you have a history with Kaley where you feel his mindset would be carefree as mafia? | ||
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Sergiovan
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On September 08 2018 00:25 Koshi wrote: I am sorry that I appear to you like that. Please dont lynch me. You look very town. I HATE this post. Koshi is avoiding commenting on the read I posted while also trying to ally himself with me. ## Vote: koshi | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
The first post of Koshi’s which I feel looks scummy is the one where he says he will post once more to appear active and good. That post added nothing to town while also suggesting to me that he is concerned with his appearance rather than finding scum. In my experience those traits suggest scum. As to Kaley versus Kelsier I don’t have a great reason more of a gut feeling. Kaley’s dumb picture feels town aligned to me, I didn’t get that feeling from the dumb coffee talk. I’m getting the flood control warning from TL so I’m going to write a really big post rather than reply to things individually. Kelsier: if you believe that Koshi’s post are not indicative of scum behavior who do you think is scum? Do you agree with my Kaley read, why or why not? | ||
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Sergiovan
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Kaley: if you disagree with my read on Koshi does that mean you have him as town or just not a scum read currently? Why Rayn, what makes him scum in your eyes? | ||
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Sergiovan
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Why do you think Kaley is town? Rayn: she has said things, her most recent post has reads in it. Why tunnel Kaley, do you truly believe that she is the scummiest person in this thread? Koshi: why are you spamming garbage? I’m told that you aren’t terrible so what do you believe you are adding to this town? | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Vivax in post #119 says he didn’t read Kayly’s post from which he read her as town. Highly suspicious if Kaley = town that Vivax = scum. Vivax has made a town read based on something he didn’t even read. If that ‘read’ is correct it seems like it comes from alignment knowledge. I see that Kelsier has seen the same things in that post as I have. That makes Kelsier relatively townie irrespective of the alignments of Vivax and Kaley. Holyflare appears either pants-on-head-useless or mafia. Over 24 hours into the game and he appears just to place an awful vote with literally no reason. Hf: do you genuinely believe that Kaley is scum, if so why? People who know holyflare: is this behavior possible from a town HF? That is, is he bad enough to do nothing day one besides avoid a modkill but also be town aligned. Rayn: calm down, no matter how you feel about Kaley’s RP your behavior is negatively effecting the town atmosphere. If you are town think about it and get better. If you are scum listen to me and do that right thing anyway so I don’t have to read your shit stirring before I lynch you. If you are still present I would like to discuss Kaley and Koshi. Kaley is posting relatively coherently and has some reads in the thread which seem to indicate that she is involved in the thread as it progresses. Koshi is posting useless and meaningless trash. Explain your reads on both of them to me. | ||
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Sergiovan
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I guess there is a third option to understand his shitty play this far 1) pants-on-head-useless 2) scum 3) townie who thinks they are making some slick play. | ||
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Sergiovan
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In post #168 you say that HF is scum for playing intentionally anti town but, unless I’m much mistaken, isn’t that what you are claiming to be doing? Why would town!koshi accuse HF of being scum for exhibiting the same behaviors that town!koshi is exhibiting. In response to #172 I guess I didn’t explain it well but I was responding to the same behavior you were in #168. HF was playing in a clearly bad way which means he is either a) bad b) mafia c) playing intentionally badly. From the above I still lean towards Koshi being scum with the caveat that I have seen town players play intentionally anti-town D1 and then shape up having ‘succeeded’ at using their bad play to help them understand the game state. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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More importantly though in the above mentioned post you say that “there is no way” that Koshi is scum. Go read my cases against him and explain how that is possible. I freely admit I don’t think he is a slam dunk 100% confirmed mafia but I fail to see how he is confirmed town. what is your read on Kelsier? I can’t decipher it from your post #241. In that same post why are you so quick to defend me? | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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HF is saying that your claim that there was no pushback on Kaley is scummy and your defense is “I said that there was pushback” and you say “there not being pushback isn't a reason to scum read Kaley.” But isn’t that actually a reason to have a town read on Kaley? You said so in your previous post. You are have a big post to defend yourself which relies on its length rather than its quality to achieve that defense. Qatol, based on the above post moves to the red column. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Koshi and HF what are your thoughts on Prplhz’s entrance to the thread? | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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In this case I will show that Vivax has shown out of game knowledge of alignments that could only come from scum. In post #89 Vivax explains a town read on Kaley that comes mostly “from the gut” while also trying to give real reasoning for it I.e. that Kaley is attacking Rayn. But in post #119 Vivax says that he isn’t sure if Kaley is genuinely pushing Rayn and that he hasn’t read her full post. Therefore the alignment read that Vivax had on Kaley didn’t come from an actual read but was instead manufactured by Vivax ## Vote: Vivax Somewhat tangentially I also believe that, assuming I’m right and Vivax is scum, the other two scum will be very in active as his claim of being role blocked is high reward/high risk as any counter claim would instantly put Vivax on the chopping block while a lack of one could lead towards a ‘confirmed town’ status for Vivax. Assuming a Scum!Vivax I believe the d3 lynch should be RoL since he is an inactive and Vivax put an inexplicable d1 vote on him. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
This vote (#285) strikes me as a pressure vote rather than scum trying to start a d2 mislynch though, there are other easier targets for an early d2 push given that the two flipped townies both town read me right before they flipped. I think scum would be more aware of that and your follow up posts on the vote suggest an attempt at pressuring me to read my alignment rather than a true attempt to get a mislynch. Kelsier stays in the town column for me, I especially like his post #304 it lays out a very townie thought process. His mindset makes sense coming from town and in a game with this few active players I am strongly opposed to a lynch on one then then who is making good posts. Also, although it isn’t a great heuristic, Kelsier has a three page filter in a 16 page game which indicates to me that he is involved in the day to day going’s on in the thread. | ||
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Sergiovan
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I think what you meant was that no pushback = town!kaley which is a fine argument to make but your post still gives me the heebie-jeebies and I just can’t explain why. Qatol’s post #286 shows that he successfully read Koshi as blue d1. Given that Koshi was pushing two townies, HF and myself, as red for most of n1 I can’t think of another reason for scum to kill Koshi besides his role. (I can’t expect any of you to share my read of this necessarily at this point since I haven’t flipped but you’ll have to trust me on this or return to it after I flip). Based on my gut feelings and this potential scum slip Qatol is second priority for the lynch. Though his push on Vivax has me going back and forth in my head since I happen to think Vivax is scummier than Qatol and I do not think they are scum together since I believe that Vivax’s RB claim is too high risk for a scum team with multiple active members in this town. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Please provide the reasoning you had for reading Koshi as town, I am still interested in hearing your thoughts. As to Kelsier’s push on me rather than Vivax that you reference in #308 I think it’s clearly a pressure vote rather than a lynch vote. He isn’t pushing my lynch at all, he is discussing it in such a way that appears to be attempting to illicit a reaction from me. Considering his actions from a townie perspective and they follow an internal logic, considering his actions from a scum perspective and they don’t. I don’t like this post by Rayn or his d2 push on Kelsier. I don’t think Rayn is good lynch today but if he survives into d3 I’ll need to reconsider. Again though if Vivax is scum I have a hard time seeing Rayn as his partner. | ||
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Sergiovan
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On his own he is my third in line for the lynch. Though the Prplhz sheep of Vivax makes me uncomfortable I still think Damdred looks scummy on his own. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Damdred is scummy on his own. He is third in line for lynch in my mind. I also didn’t like how you sheeped Vivax. Those are unrelated thoughts. You’ll note that I’m not pushing a Damdred lynch because he isn’t my top scum read. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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I’ll be gone for about an hour and then I’ll only have about fifteen minutes before I have to head back to work. I need to hear from you all (especially Prplhz and Kelsier who I know are in the thread right now) We need to consolidate down to two targets for this lynch to force scum to actually make an impactful vote | ||
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Sergiovan
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What are your thoughts on my case on him. Qatol: my reasoning for believing that the other two scum are inactive isn’t about their communication it is that the high risk play comes at a time where scum!vivax shouldn’t feel much pressure and, therefore, would only happen if scum!bivax needed to elicit the reaction he got from Rayn because he can’t count on his teammates | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Who is scummier to you Vivax or Damdred? | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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1) I need to check in on Qatol some more but I currently have him as scum 2) I have Kelsier as a relatively strong town read 3) RoL actually posted, wow 4) I like Meapak’s post, he is thinking about the game with a townie mindset though I don’t find his conclusions convincing. That is: his case(s) put him in the town column but they don’t convince me. If I’m alive tomorrow I’m going to spend some time looking at voting patterns and how wagons developed. Unless we have protective blue roles we need to lynch scum tomorrow | ||
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Sergiovan
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On September 09 2018 07:18 kitaman27 wrote: Day 1 Vote Count Kaley [3]: Qatol, raynpelikoneet, Koshi [1]: Sergiovan raynpelikoneet [1]: Kaley Vivax [1]: Holyflare 1]: Koshi RebirthOfLeGenD [1]: Vivax Qatol [1]: Not Voting [4]: Meapak_Ziphh, RebirthOfLeGenD, Damdred, prplhz Kaley is currently the lynch. The deadline is Saturday, Sep 08 10:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in . If there is an error in the vote count, which there probably is, let me know. | ||
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Sergiovan
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On September 12 2018 07:47 kitaman27 wrote: Day 2 Vote Count Damdred [3]: Vivax,prplhz, raynpelikoneet Vivax [2]: Qatol, Sergiovan Qatol [1]: KelsierSC [0]: Rels [1]: Meapak_Ziphh Sergiovan [0]: Not Voting [3]: RebirthOfLeGendD, Damdred, KelsierSC Damdred is currently the lynch. The deadline is Tuesday, Sep 11 10:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in . If there is an error in the vote count, which there probably is, let me know. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
Based on that my vote analysis is lacking at best. There was no impetus for any scum member to vote one way or another during d1 or d2. There is also no impetus for scum to vote any particular way now, d3 with each wagon having less than or equal to two votes. We need to consolidate our votes on only two targets for this lynch so that we actually have a chance of winning. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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I’m sticking to my town read there. Kelsier strikes me as town as well, his play around Kaley d1 felt genuine in that he was annoyed but didn’t find her role playing alignment indicative which is the correct read for a townie in my mind. Kelsier has been involved in the thread as it moves and is posting quick thoughts and snippets which I think is hard for scum to do. His early game especially shows him being really careless with his posting that just doesn’t seem possible from scum. Again I think Kelsier is town. My town right now is Qatol, Meapak and Kelsier with three scum in RoL, Rels, Rayn and Prplhz. In something like that order of likeliness. I will probably end up sheeping Meapak and Qatol onto Rels today since that is the only way I feel that we can insure a town controlled lynch. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Don’t vote Qatol. That’s a terrible vote. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Please be aware that if you are town we don’t have the option of splitting our votes. We need to vote as four fifths of a single block and I believe that means that we have to vote Rels with Meapak and Qatol | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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One of you is town and engaging you is the best play for town so that information enters the thread and is present even if I’m night killed | ||
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Sergiovan
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On September 15 2018 02:01 Sergiovan wrote: Meapak came into the thread late but with an open mindset trying to find scum in a different way than anyone else had up to that point, his post #450 looks really townie to me as it shows what he is thinking about every player and why with the use of a heuristic that makes sense to me. His attempts to discern Alignments from voting patterns are townie as well though, based on my above vote analysis, I don’t think we can find scum that way today. I’m sticking to my town read there. Kelsier strikes me as town as well, his play around Kaley d1 felt genuine in that he was annoyed but didn’t find her role playing alignment indicative which is the correct read for a townie in my mind. Kelsier has been involved in the thread as it moves and is posting quick thoughts and snippets which I think is hard for scum to do. His early game especially shows him being really careless with his posting that just doesn’t seem possible from scum. Again I think Kelsier is town. My town right now is Qatol, Meapak and Kelsier with three scum in RoL, Rels, Rayn and Prplhz. In something like that order of likeliness. I will probably end up sheeping Meapak and Qatol onto Rels today since that is the only way I feel that we can insure a town controlled lynch. Rayn: I haven’t had a read on you the whole game, your play hasn’t been alignment indicative to me. I currently have you on my potential scum list by process of elimination. But your inability to read my friggin posts isn’t helping your case. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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On September 15 2018 04:28 Qatol wrote: As I mentioned in post #606, I think the mafia are basically on cruise control right now. Anyone who has been reading the thread (or at least who has looked at Meapak's post #450) knows that I am on the scumlist of literally almost everyone. Regardless of what you think about my alignment, this makes me an easy target for scum "contributions." I expected to see scum dogpile on me at some point, probably adding more poorly considered fuel to the fire. As you know, basically everyone in the game has been piling on me with various arguments, some more reasoned than others. That makes it extremely likely that the mafia shows up in there somewhere. However, in day 2, only two people really added new content to the fire: Vivax (which was why I scumread him day 2) and Rels. In particular, Rels's accusation was as follows: + Show Spoiler + On September 12 2018 07:38 Rels wrote: On the other hand I see NOONE except someone looking actively for blues reading this post: And thinking: "mm yeah this person is 90% blue" And THEN making this post: Oh yeah. Really 90% sure Koshi was town at that point. In other words, his "contribution" was that it isn't pro-town to look for blues. However, as anyone who looks for mafia by evaluating how nervous they appear would know, a huge part of that is distinguishing blues from reds (because both will act nervous when pressured). Plus, sometimes people just make posts that make you think they have a role. If anything, in the context of a discussion about why Koshi was killed, me revealing that I had a blue read on him is more likely to make me town than mafia. However, when I pointed that out to him, instead of thinking about the argument like you would expect from a townie trying to contribute, he instead mindlessly doubles down and tries to make it a blue hunting competition: + Show Spoiler + On September 12 2018 07:55 Rels wrote: you got lucky with your unlikely assumption being right or maybe you really caught him with his posts asking for advice during the night but that post is not a blueslip, and no VT would think it is However, at this point, he has justified his crappy vote. So at this point, I'm already not loving what he has done, but maybe his other contributions to the thread have something that redeems him? Day 1, he's trying not to get into arguments with anyone. Instead, his posts are either defenses of Vivax or him talking about various people he thinks are probably townie (sergio, rayn, koshi, and kelsier). As Meapak pointed out in post #349, he isn't taking sides with people who are arguing against each other, which is unusual. Instead, he thinks they're all town. Night 2, he only discusses modkills and a quick support for rayn. These look like the type of posts I'm expecting out of mafia. He's doing his very best to avoid any sort of controversy while at the same time not really contributing. Literally the only potentially redeeming things I can find in his filter at all are his defense of Vivax (which doesn't bring him under fire) and him being confused about Koshi flipping blue (but this is a mistake scum could easily make). I also like Meapak's point from post #349 that Rels lazily jumped on the bandwagon for Kaley, mostly in the spirit of "punishing poor town play." (Only excerpt copied below) + Show Spoiler + On September 12 2018 02:15 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: His reasoning for lynching Kaley is that he/she was hard to read? That's just lazy town play, not scumhunting. Killing someone for roleplaying is a super low percentage policy lynch move which is both apathetic and ineffective as it gives no real information. But it sure is an easy position for a scum to hop on and defend bc they wanted to "punish poor town play." But folks our goal is to catch mafia, not punish bad townplay. ## Sheep | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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I would much rather a RoL v Rels rather than Rels v Kelsier lynch though as I’m pretty sure both are scum but we need Qatol, Prplhz and one of Kelsier or Meapak. We need four townies on the lynch and one of Rayn/Prp is scum (I’m leaning Prplhz) | ||
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Sergiovan
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## Unvote ## Vote: RoL | ||
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Sergiovan
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On September 15 2018 05:34 Qatol wrote: I just realized I exactly misread your post. I think RoL is mafia (not town). I think the second mafia is Rels. I think the last mafia is one of prplhz, KelsierSC, and you. I'm not going to worry about which one right now, as night kills and future posts can provide more clarity. Yeah I figured out what you meant, no worries | ||
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Sergiovan
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On September 15 2018 05:33 raynpelikoneet wrote: The fuck is even majority, we three can be majority. That’s what worries me a four man majority is much safer than three. If you lynch Rels with me and Qatol today we can lynch RoL tomorrow and have the time to convince another townie to jump on board, that way we could be more sure of a win rather than risking a mafia deadline switch to save RoL | ||
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Sergiovan
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Sergiovan
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Rels is objectively scummy and should be lynched. I think so and Qatol thinks so as well. You mathematically have to have at least one of us as town so listen to that person. I don’t like that Rels hasn’t voted during LYLO if he is town he has totally abdicated his ability to help town win, town wouldn’t play that way. Therefore he is scum waiting til deadline to hammer vote a townie. I actually just convinced myself Rels is the scummiestbased on the above, I don’t see any way his play is coming from a town player at this moment. Qatol, Rayn, Prplhz: all aboard the Rels train | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
## Vote Rels Qatol, Rayn and Prplhz follow me on this, we can lynch RoL tomorrow when we can get more people on him. A three man wagon is going to fail when scum all hammer vote at deadline we need to consolidate with the absent townies and that’s Kelsier and Meapak, Kelsier voting into Qatol so we have to follow Meapak. | ||
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Sergiovan
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Qatol, Meapak, Kelsier - town Rels, RoL - Scum I’m not sure on the third scum it’s either Rayn or Prplhz | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
This game was a real pleasure for me, I haven’t played Mafia in about five years as I said before the start of the game and getting to play with TL veterans like Qatol and RoL who I had never never had the chance to play with before. I was looking forward to Scum hunting but it was quite fun to just shit things up with Rayn instead. A few thoughts: above all I’m sad that’s TL has devolved so far that having four AFKs in a mini is possible. I never loved the 30 player games but I’m glad they were an option and our minis used to have so many people ready to replace in, what happened? I don’t know if anyone noticed but I bread crumbed DT d1 as well as checks on Koshi n1 and Qatol n2 I was saving that to create a big WIFOM mess if and when I was lynched. That ‘check’ is also why I had a hard town read on Qatol d3 that inexplicably I was never questioned on. I still do not understand the d1 Kaley lynch. Can anyone explain why they thought that was a good idea? She was actively participating in the game and had reads (admittedly bad ones with bad reasoning but she was playing and looked pretty townie I thought) The d2 lynch was equally disorganized and ended up as poorly as d1. Damdred looked like a fine lynch to me but the town needed to organize better around making us actually commit to something. There was never a lynch where we felt pressure as to where to put our votes. The inactive players really screwed town over here by allowing the scum team to be everywhere. D3 Rayn and I really took control of the thread and I feel bad for Qatol trying to figure out what was happening while Rayn and I created a mess in his head. I quite enjoyed our play towards RoL just in case our night kill didn’t go through for some reason. N3 we shot Prplhz and roleblocked him to ensure if he was vet he couldn’t keep himself alive. None of town had hard town reads on him so I figured if there was a doc we would be safe with our shot on Prplhz. Koshi: I mentioned this in the mafia qt but your vigi shot was very poor, in a game like this you needed to vig an inactive. I’m told Holyflare is now quite good as town so bogging him night one is a high risk low reward play. Qatol: I really enjoyed playing with you, you were clearly trying to figure things out to the very end. You were excellent. Kita has been trying to figure out the name I played under in the past on TL. I welcome you all to join in that particular game, I’m happy to answer questions. | ||
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