On September 10 2018 05:23 Sergiovan wrote:
Rayn: in post #235 you state that no one but you and Qatol gave reads on Kaley. I clearly stated that I believed her to be town based on her attitude.
More importantly though in the above mentioned post you say that “there is no way” that Koshi is scum. Go read my cases against him and explain how that is possible. I freely admit I don’t think he is a slam dunk 100% confirmed mafia but I fail to see how he is confirmed town.

what is your read on Kelsier? I can’t decipher it from your post #241.
In that same post why are you so quick to defend me?

If you are going to tell me you seriously read Kaley as town after maybe 40 hours of D1 then you can die in a fire, because what you posted about him early on in D1 was a complete misconstrue of what he was saying (giving reads as you said -- which he definitely wasnt), especially going later onto D1.

My read on Kelsier is coming soon.

I am not defending you. I am pointing out irrational behavior by someone else where the target happens to be you, not to even mention HF asked for my read on Kelsier. Right now i don't think you are mafia but even if i did i would point such behavior out just because accusing someone (even someone i read as mafia) based on non-sensical reasons is just BS and points out towards them being mafia.

idk if i have to still explain my read ok Koshi, if you think tha's relevant then go ahead and ask me to explain but the point on it is he made some posts that i found out almost impossible to come from mafia!Koshi. I also didn't care to focus on explaining my townread who was never under any threat of being lynched over other thigns i did D1.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

I think Kelsier is mafia basically because especially on D2 (and that Serge read D1-N1) is based on stuff that other people did. What Kelsier has done D2 is that he has created a narrative and for that he calls out some people. He makes an assumption why Koshi died, creates scenarios about what that means, and makes "reads" out of it. Except that nothing in those reads is based on what the person he scumreads actually did. Koshi can be right or Koshi can be wrong, but whatever Koshi said or did is not a reason for anyone to be mafia, otherwise Holyflare should have flipped red. I understand the idea behind Kelsier's mindset, but he is using Koshi as a REASON to read certain people as he does, and that's just lazy, cheap, and wrong. Because that's not how this game works.

Other than that, let's go to look at those things, especially Kelsier's last big post. I find out there to be some huge problems:
1) Discounting everything else, why is Kelsier voting for Serge over Vivax right now? After all he has actual reasons to think Vivax is mafia, i mean like almost all his D1 is attacking Vivax and it is 100% certain that 0-posts Vivax doesn't at least look better D2 than he did D1.
2) There is no reasoning on Serge being mafia over Vivax (his top scumread D1) right now that wasn't there already on D1 as per his words, except for the below (which i find not reasonable at all).
3) Kelsier scumreads Serge on D1 for something that was not enough to switch his vote from Vivax. I think that should not be a reason to switch his vote come D2 either since Vivax hasn't made a single post after telling us how he "has a pretty good clue of who is mafia but he needs to wait until D2". Right now he is backing up his read on Serge with "Koshi and Holyflare thought Serge is mafia", which first of all isn't a reasonable reason to call anyone mafia (i talked about this earlier) and also there is the fact that the last posts HF and Koshi made on Serge are:

On September 10 2018 06:28 Koshi wrote:
Sure. But care levels are low.
Good on you to do things.
Not reading the things though.

On September 10 2018 07:07 Holyflare wrote:
Sergio cool now.

Now i cannot be sure if Koshi states here he doesn't think Serge is mafia anymore or not, and we unfortunately cannot ask him, but that doesn't sound like a hard scumread anymore. Holyflare definitely doesn't have a scumread on Serge anymore. All this happened during N1. Even the narrative Kelsier is pushing is factually incorrect here.

As a cherry on top of the cake he says this:

It feels wrong to lynch someone like vivax or sergio who are playing the game and letting people who aren't doing anything slip through. My plan is to hover around at deadline and look for someone trying to dodge the modkill with some meaningless posts and lynch that guy.

What's the point of voting for someone who you aren't even planning on lynching????? The pressure factor is gone right here because Kelsier basically said he is going to do something else by the end of the day.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

TLDR:
- I think logically town!Kelsier should be voting for Vivax over Serge
- I think Kelsier isn't using arguments based on what the person he accuses actually did (or even didn't)
- Even his narrative (above) is based on irrational conclusions or missing some crucial posts
- He is already backing off from lynching the people he apparently wants to lynch onto an inactive lynch.

##vote Kelsier

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 14:45 GMT

#309

Oh yes and for the record the reason why Koshi scumread Serge was "because he is linked with Holyflare and Holyflare is mafia."

soooo....

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 14:47 GMT

#310

I am trying really hard to read the case agains Qatol but i don't understand it so can someone explain it to me like i am 5?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 14:53 GMT

#315

dear god, did Koshi actually hint being blue?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 14:54 GMT

#317

Holyflare is always a good medic target. Regardless of how right or wrong he is on D1 he is very good and always a good mafia shot.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 20:51 GMT

#370

So Vivax is basically confirmed town unless the roleblock went on Holyflare.

Whats up Serge? Youre voting for confirmed town.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 20:52 GMT

#371

Wait no.. not necessarily.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 20:59 GMT

#374

Yeah i somehow thought this is an open setup. I havent read the op for a week except for now.

I am never lynching vivax now anyways, it is way more likely he was just roleblocked because he wasnt exactly under heavy fire when he claimed roleblocked.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 21:05 GMT

#376

Idk. Kelsiers answer doesnt please me. And he made another scumread based on - once again - what other people said.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 21:06 GMT

#377

I can vote for damdred, or rels. I wont be voting for vivax or qatol. Unless kelsier is happening, which doesnt seem likely rn. I hate to play when i dont have enough time.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 21:09 GMT

#378

Rels had the dumb "rayn not interacting with me" post which doesnt make any sense since every read he made was exactly what my reads were at the time -- so why should i interact woth him when he is voting for who i want to lynch and he 100% agrees with my reads?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 21:46 GMT

#384

I dont think prpkhz is mafia, he said something that sounded really townie

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 11 2018 21:53 GMT

#385

Well i have to make the decision now.
At least this has a chance of happening.

##vote Damdred

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 12 2018 20:01 GMT

#435

On September 12 2018 08:15 Rels wrote:
rayn did you ever dumbtell as scum ?

At least once.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 12 2018 20:03 GMT

#436

On September 12 2018 09:25 Qatol wrote:

Show nested quote +

Then why did he provide the hammer vote on an absolutely horrible damdred lynch? As in, if he did not vote damdred, then damdred would not have been lynched (it would have been vivax). As I have been pointing out, damdred had exactly 1 post during the game. This was a mafia-endorsed "policy lynch." I say endorsed because it was a majority vote of 3, and a single vote switch could and did change the result. Isn't rayn supposed to be the best player left in this game? That vote is making me at least reconsider him.

What the....?
idk which is worse, this post here or the fact that noone who has posted after this has had nothing to say about this.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 12 2018 20:34 GMT

#438

So in your opinion i should have:
1) Lynch or let my townread Vivax lynched?
2) Lynch you (since i thought Kelsier was also voting for you)

Tell me, which of those options should have town!rayn done over voting for someone i believed has at least a decent chance of flipping mafia over the other options?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 12 2018 20:38 GMT

#439

Like i literally came here with the time i had, saw that there was no interest in my preferred lynch (Kelsier), said i didn't want to lynch the other two of the three wagons (which i had already said even before they were actual wagons), and decided to vote for a the last possible option.

Like it's already fucking bullshit how the votes have gone all game because in a game with 3 mafia (even if RoL is mafia in this game) you are never ever gonna lynch mafia with 3 votes unless mafia is just garbage, let alone with 2 votes. Leaving my vote on Kelsier was not an option. Because i want to even have a chance of lynching mafia and in my opinion voting for Damdred was the best chance out of those three.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

September 12 2018 20:44 GMT

#440

I do not mind people reevaluating me or even calling me mafia but i do mind if it is for absolutely horrendous reasons that never make sense in any world.