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Liquidmania Qualifier #4 - Page 11

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 16:15 GMT
#1099
I have to go now. I'll post my thoughts on Tumblewood/Rels/btdt before the deadline.
I will never consider Koshi, darthfoley or sicklucker as mafia.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 16:45 GMT
#1104
On April 12 2017 01:29 darthfoley wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 12 2017 00:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On April 12 2017 00:08 Koshi wrote:
It is true what you say but I think Rels just made the correct play to survive. Calix was made.

Same could be said about you and me too... And i don't think i am mafia and i don't think you are mafia.


I don't think the same could be said considering you, koshi and I were the ones who applied a lot of pressure on Calix. More than just early D1 feeler pressure. By the time Rels came in that pressure, and her crumbling, was already set in stone. I don't think the two situations are comparable

Well i could make a case on Koshi if i wanted to.
Easily. But its not likely. After all this is about probabilities and while anyone COULF be mafia, i think about who does what and how likely it is to come from mafia.

I would say from my experience 65% likely Rels tries to push someone else than votes for Calix D1 as mafia when he came to thread.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 16:46 GMT
#1107
Did Shapelog have 2 votes when Rels voted?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 16:51 GMT
#1109
On April 12 2017 01:42 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 12 2017 01:36 darthfoley wrote:
On April 11 2017 21:00 Koshi wrote:
I do not know why Rels is not the lynch tomorrow.

Sicklucker is obviously doctor, or he did an insane play to secure him lylo. In this game mafia doesn't know the setup, so if this is a vt setup he gambled on that and then gambled on not being coutnerclaimed???? Are you all dense or am I wrong about the setup? I didn't read the op.

rayn can't be mafia because while I threw the ball, he made the alley hoop. or w.e that is called. And then during night he decides to not kill anybody while he isn't sure there is a doc so he might get docsaved and then be confirmed? Even more confirmed than he already is??? Are you fuckers for real?

So everybody should have at least 3 superconfirmed townies himself included.


Who is left for me:
Rels
Tumble
btdt
df

For me the obvious choice is Rels. Didn't do shit, and just gained cred when it was cool. Go lynch that fucker.
Darthfoley played well if he is mafia. Cherry picked what he posted and made them incredible.
Tumble most likely is town. Read rayn his posts on why. He is just playing like he always plays. Weird or not understandable does NOT equal scum. Not now, not ever.
btdt is possibly mafia due to interactions with Calix and bad posts. But he is not mafia due to activity and emotions. So he is not mafia and should not be considered in the next 2 lynches. Or do we lose after 3ml? I don't know.


So lynch Rels
Then look at how clean dartholey is
Then look at how messed up Tumble and btdt are and pick one in lylo. Hopefully I am there and not sicklucker.



Also protip to btdt and tumble: Stop calling each other mafia because you don't understand the other person his playstyle. It's dumb.


My only qualm as to why Rels isn't mafia is the fact that rayn was the NK target. Like why would Rels target rayn if he's hardcore defending him. It would've made more sense to kill you or me

cuz rayn can figure shit out. I noticed last game. It took him till D4 but it happened
I think rayn is an OK night kill for Rels to make. Especially because Rels maybe not have seen me play. Because I was afk the time he was here. And was going to be afk for another 48 hours.

So yeah. rayn was an ok kill.

Actually it was D3 but Onegu had to go before lylo and asap.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 17:04 GMT
#1114
On April 12 2017 01:54 darthfoley wrote:
When Rels voted for Calix it was

3 Calix
2 TW (TR by basically all of Calix wagon at the time)
1 Rels
1 Shapelog

The thing here is;

Lets say Rels is mafia. He has about 3.5hrs before deadline.
Every player on Calix scumreads Shapelog. Sicklucker scumreads Calix (soon to vote for him).

If you are mafia!rels what do you do?
(1) just drop your vote on Calix?
(2) try to convince basically every townie that their other scumread is scum instead of Calix.

It's not even a question of will he succeed in (2), it's a question of if you do (1), can you ever win? You dont know the setup, someone who is not rayn/koshi/df is a cop and its gg if Calix dies. If someone is blue its 90% gg. Which route you take?

If you have even 20% chance to convince 1 person of the other three who already scumread Shapelog Calix most likely lives. And that is NOT even taking account Calix' vote.

I personally think Calix decided she's dead and not to post only after Rels voted. Because without Rels' vote, whoever is mafia with her, its not a disaster yet.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 17:05 GMT
#1115
Ebwop: sl scumreads shapelog.

Fuck phoneposting
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 17:08 GMT
#1117
My townread is bbased on Rels being a good scumplayer and if he is mafia that was fucking shit scumplay.

Please read what i wrote on Tumblewood.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 17:24 GMT
#1118
I feel like all Tumblewood does is he finds some bad narratives to fit his conclusions (like calix vs shapelog vote and the "quality of players" argument) and he hadnt done anything after N1. The early game of his (which i townread him for) can be explained by the fact he did the same thing last game as town so why not ride with it here if he's mafia ("oh i townread my scumbuddy because of mindmeld" as i acted the same way last game). + here this thing too; he doesnt consider he can be wrong even when pointed out clearly how Calix acted very differently from last game. He just ends up to "dont worry rayn youll get your lynch anyways".... when he is townreading Calix for the same argument me and Koshi are scumreading her for. Like this is the opposite. If tumble did that as town its fucking terrible townplay. And then just peace out after.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 18:10 GMT
#1124
On April 11 2017 09:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2017 05:36 darthfoley wrote:
On April 11 2017 05:21 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 11 2017 00:19 darthfoley wrote:
On April 11 2017 00:10 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 11 2017 00:03 darthfoley wrote:
On April 10 2017 20:39 Rels wrote:
in comparaison Shape / Calix is so cordial. More cordial than any other interaction in Calix' filter.
yep. ##Vote Shapelog


So you think scum!Calix would try to be cordial with her partner in a game with lots of veterans?

there are one and a half fatal assumptions here
one is that calix was trying to do that, which would just be silly. the other being that calix might do that to a particular townie, which is highly improbable


Why is it highly improbable?

idk, it's just one of those things you don't think about as scum. not that you couldn't, just that you don't.
plus it would only be useful if calix flips and town calls it out, which is not easily foreseeable from the first 24 hours


Fair enough. I still don't see why "calix's interactions with btdt make it unlikely they're together" cuz don't mafia often pressure each other early D1 and then back off (which is what she kinda did)

It is not "they interacted with together and ended up not calling each other scum", it's more of how the interaction went, especially from btdt's side. Like usually when mafia interacts with mafia and it ends like this both people know what they are doing, right? They have a plan and they know where it ends, in the end. I think it's highly unlike when Calix "ends the interaction" btdt just keeps going on and going on with it. Also that was the one of the interactions that made btdt "sad" a bit later in the game. Why would he get sad for that? He had just achieved what he wanted to as mafia.

This is the reason i am 100% sure btdt is town. I have now tried to read his filter for line 10 times and i always stop here and think "nonononono fuck no this dude is not scum regardless of what he says after acting like this"...
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 18:14 GMT
#1125
On April 12 2017 03:05 sicklucker wrote:
Yes rels would suck up to me. so if hes making up reads for that it makes him mafia

Wouldnt sucking up to you here be voting for Shape?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 18:16 GMT
#1126
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 12 2017 03:02 sicklucker wrote:
ryan you say rels didnt have to defend me as mafia or w/e. but meta wise he would 10000% suck up to me as mafia

Maybe. But on D1 sucking up to you would be voting for shape. I dont think him calling you town n1 makes him town, i understand he can kill me and then go "SEE RAYN SAID SL IS SCUM".
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 18:20 GMT
#1127
Like i am not saying it is impossible for Rels to be mafia. I am just way more certain that Tumble is mafia. The o ly thing i just want you all to realize is that btdt is not mafia.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 18:48 GMT
#1131
On April 12 2017 03:47 sicklucker wrote:
Like sucking up and defending me is one thing. but hes not going to go against koshi and ryan to save his partner as mafia unless he has a chance which he didnt. calix didnt even post im sure she probably conceded in qt

Did you even read what i wrote before on that matter?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 19:51 GMT
#1132
On April 12 2017 03:48 sicklucker wrote:
also rels is a busser. like if I were to scale him form 1 -1 0 from does not like to bus to likes to bus hes like a 9 or 10 on this site

Gimme games plz. I read them if i am alive.
Until then lynch Tumblewood. Read plz and dont be stuck on narratives.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 11 2017 19:56 GMT
#1133
I read them day after tmrw. Tmrw i am picking up Cake and doing something else than playing mafia in any case.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 22 2017 19:30 GMT
#1520
Well done Koshi. Should have looked more into df after Shapelog lynch but i ran out of time.

There was nothing spectacular in the fakeclaim. Sure it was good but nothing spectacular and had been done before number of time. Totally disagree with mvp. Even if the claim saved every nk if you dont manage to suspect a single mafia until lylo you are not the one who carried the town, ever.

Koshi mvp. DF played really well too.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 24 2017 09:21 GMT
#1525
On April 20 2017 22:27 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 20 2017 18:38 Rels wrote:
totally agree with the MVP too. Sry Tumble I was dumb. But DF was super townie. These big posts D1 in particular

The guy that voted mafia 0 times?

Town played really bad this game.
So mafia played super fucking terrible and killed themselves then?
Since MVP couldn't ever figure out single mafia.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-24 09:43:10
April 24 2017 09:42 GMT
#1527
It was a good play because it kinda proves him town as he is always fucked if he is mafia, but nothing spectacular. The only way it backfires as him being town is if there is a super idiot doctor who doesn't understand what's going on and cc's him (since his town credit comes from the fact that he is either dead before lylo or the real doctor saves him night X). I just disagree with the fact that a player who managed to figure out 0 mafia can somehow be an MVP of the game. I don't even care about any points since i won't be playing in the final game anyways but i just disagree with factually incorrect things.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 25 2017 04:49 GMT
#1534
On April 25 2017 08:39 iamperfection wrote:
oh who do you think it should have been then

Okay, i am curious iamperfection. Could you tell me the following:

How could i have been MVP in this game?

Nobody except for me understood what Koshi was saying regarding Calix on D1. I voted for Calix when there were two opposing wagons in a situation of 2-2-2 (and one of the votes on Calix was from her scumbuddy). Rels was still afk at that time and while he could understand Koshi's case, it is not 100% sure what Rels would have done. My vote on Calix not only put her as a leading wagon, but when both me and Koshi - the most experienced players in the game - vote for the same player with the same case it at least should ring some bells in people's head. The game - votewise - at that point was a mess. Rels soon after that figures what is the best case on D1 basically sealing the lynch.

Now we go into D2. We have darthfoley who had bussed his teammate in a way that makes him 100% not a D2 lynch. And it was just not his vote on Calix, it was also his case on Shapelog who at the time looked most likely to be Calix' scumbuddy, not only for me but for every single player in the game!! There is no way anyone ever reading this game not knowing the alignments lynched darthfoley on D2, that is just impossible, because his D1 was super strong. Even if you have the town full of best mafia players on earth you don't lynch darthfoley on D2, ever. Because you can't make more convincing case on him than on anyone in the game except maybe for me and Koshi (and sicklucker after the fakeclaim). So basically, there is no way the town lynches mafia on D2.

I died N2 and unfortunately didn't have much time. I had figured out btdt is town at that point. I never read the game after i died except for figuring out Rels is town too early D3. So tell me this iamp; What should i have done better to get MVP over a dude who basically did nothing except for was wrong besides his fakeclaim - which is something anyone (except for me since i was quite likely shot on N1) could have done if they were quick enough to post before sicklucker did? How could i have played better than i did? For me (or for anyone) to be MVP in this game - in your opinion - it would have required:
- Lynch Calix D1 -> can easily be done.
- Lynch darthfoley on D2 -> this one is 99,9% impossible

I mean like.. In your opinion, for example i should have played a perfect game of mafia to get MVP over a guy who:
- made a fakeclaim probably 30% of the people can easily make if they have a chance to do the same
- voted for mafia 0 times whole game. Like literally, sicklucker had a chance to hammer darthfoley on D4, but instead he decided to hammer his townread Tumblewood.
On April 17 2017 09:32 sicklucker wrote:
##unvote
##vote: Tumblewood

On April 17 2017 09:53 iamperfection wrote:
Day-4-Count:


Tumblewood (3) - Koshi, sicklucker, darthfoley
beentheredonethat (0) -
darthfoley (2) - beentheredonethat, Tumblewood

Not Voting (0) -

Whoever has the most votes at the end of the day (plurality) will be lynched.
Only votes in the voting thread will count.

The day will end in at 01:30 GMT (+00:00).



(btw the votes are in wrong order since sicklucker voted for TW after darthfoley did)

And then he even said after the game "wow i suspected df before it was cool". Yeah, for one post, and then he went back to btdt being more likely mafia into hammering his townread TW instead of his apparent scumread df..... Maybe sicklucker just says and does different things in the game than he after the game thinks he did, who knows....

Had sicklucker (or anyone) figured out darthfoley is mafia on D3 and seriously trying to push him or something i could totally accept him being the MVP. But in the first place, sickluckers fakeclaim, while good play, is nothing spectacular, especially when he didn't figure out any scum - hell he didn't really do anything in the game besides being confirmed town for his claim. Making a cute play doesn't win the game, finding mafia wins the game. And well... Every player in the game barring Shapelog (and even this is questionable since D1 ended one hour early and i doubt Shapelog is lying about thinking of changing his vote onto Calix since he was town) "found" more mafia than sicklucker did (Tumblewood and btdt both voted for darthfoley D4 at EOD).

I mean, if your criteria for being MVP is "make one good play that doesn't even net mafia and then you can just be wrong all game" and to win that other people should play a perfect game of mafia then i really don't know what to say man..

my 2c
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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
April 25 2017 05:53 GMT
#1535
I have to say though that this was a really enjoyable game to play. Everyone was decent, no afk's (after Rels' almost D1 and Calix - but Calix was already somewhat doomed when she stopped posting). For the townies who got lynched - this was a game where it's not a "shame" to get lynched as town because noone was really scummy, people who were lynched were just "least townie".
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