[M][N] A Mini With Funny Gifs - Page 97

I don't believe SL is the JK.
But I also don't believe he is scum. If I die, do NOT lynch him at day. At this point I'm indeed inclined to believe that he is VT trying to take the bullet before he he would get lynched wasting a full day with everyone consenting like it happened D2.
Unless he plays the total confusion card as scum, lol ^.^

But why wouldn't he get shot at night by scum, if he was not one of them?
3 cases:

a) There is no JK in the game. If SL is town, he had to guess in which setup we are. For some reason ppl messed up before him on JK tmi, so it made sense to follow that for him.
But scum knows the setup, so they know this is fake if we are playing #1. There is no point in shooting SL, who they may get rid off with the day lynch and who may draw a CC. (Look at who is pushing for CCs...) So they can just bluehunt at night, waste the daylynch with SL, and this game looks very grim for town. (Oh, and SL would have a good chance at being docprotected anyway)

b) There is a JK in the setup, scum believes it to be SL. They still may go for the risky WIFOM play, trying to get him lynched. And just shoot whoever they want at night. - This is the least likely case.

c) There is a JK in the setup, but scum does not believe it to be SL. There is a good chance of the real JK protecting SL, who may again get lynched if someone else drops at night. And again, they want to bluehunt obviosly. Also they want to get a CC at day here. (Again look at who is pushing for Ccs...)



The consequence of cases a) and c) is: if you are the real JK/Doc: DO NOT COUNTERCLAIM. JUST FUCKING DONT!

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Leaves the question, who is scum, if all this is the case?

For very personal issues I would love to case HF here, but the sad truth is: No, he is not scum. If you read the progression after EoD and the claim take a special look at two posts:
http://www.liquiddota.com/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=26212954
http://www.liquiddota.com/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=26212989
He calls SL town, not JK. Not sure this is an intentional crumb by a Town!HF. In any case, it actually reached me. When I reread the thread, it were those posts who even gave me this entire idea here so in a way he clearly planted this idea in my mind. He was also the first one to do so.
Now this makes absolutely no sense for Scum!HF. Regardlessly if he believes the SL claim, there is nothing for him to gain by planting this idea in peoples heads. Especially if we talk the case where scum does not shoot him (and if you have read until here, we are at this case). In this case scum wants to get SL lynched at day. Giving others even the idea that he may do that as VT is clearly playing against that objective. And giving this idea away also drastically reduces the chance of getting a CC, if ppl figure all that out before.
This "he may not be JK" was echoed later... But if HF was scum he would simply not start it but hope nobody gets the idea. He could have doe those posts after someone else figured it out. But he was the first here.
(One tinfoil though... If SL is scum... then it absolutely makes sense for a Scumbuddy HF to do that. Like thinking about it I absolutely love this tinfoil... I just don't think this is the case here.)

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So who do I think is scum?

If I would get a shot, it would be on TT.
In his D1/N1 play there is absolutely nothing conclusive. Everything was completely viable as town or as scum. I disliked his tmi-accident early in D2. His excuse can be legit, so well... But it is just the vibes... D2 was kinda sleepy and there was not much action by anyone, but from gut feeling I always got that TT was actively promoting this sleepiness.
This bad feeling also got reinforced after the SL claim:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=1889&topic_id=515094
This was not a heat of the moment post. Also he does not call SL scum. He calls him not-JK. Now why on earth would a townie do that? He suspects him to be VT? Then you do not fucking call that out in this clear way at middle of the night. Scum won't suddenly start shooting themselves because they realize the guy is not JK. One has to die. And if it is VT-SL, hell yeah, get him NKed.
Now you may ask what is the difference between HF and TT... Imho it lies in the subtleness. HFs posts were formed so much weaker than this, more adressing on a subconcious level, and I'm not even sure he intended to crumb that idea or just slipped it. But TT openly and intentionally promoted that idea after thinking about it. This is imho a big difference.
Now I'm also aware that this goes against the scum strategy of drawing a CC, if they realized SL was fake. But I can't describe it, it looks wrong here. Like as he was distancing himself already from a mislynch on SL. (Compare it to HF again. Imho there is a huge difference. Distancing fails when nobody notices you moved away...)
Similarly I can not understand his train of thoughts with the shades he threw N2. Yes of course, everyone has to be doubted at this point... If you don't do that, you are probably scum or not paying attention, or you really think you solved the game. But his shade throws feel so... weird.
Shading Onegu, yeah.. makes sense, but is also a viable scumstrat to shade the afk. (and all his scumreads had been the afk so far)
And then me and Emp? For what? For not adding a 6th and 7th vote to the shlog train to be "not associated?" WTF? Is this really all you got?
Like I'm pretty sure I can be suspected... But thats the trigger point? And with Emp I do not understand it at all. If you want to throw all the reasons why Emp is townread by most out of the window just for this? Emp had some post N3 which gave me a slight doubt. But offvoting is certainly not one of them. Again it just feels like TT is not actively playing, but just posting stuff that seems like content and which are seemingly his thoughts, but he never actually had those thoughts, because he would have noticed how off they are.
He made another read summary later, which changed some stuff and looking at it isolated it again makes sense for a townie to think that way. But I don't like the way there.


Oh, and im a sucker for such posts, it gave me bad vibes when it was posted... Given the flips and SL situation those vibes are like really really bad...
+ Show Spoiler +


Now I think nothing individually is 100% conclusive here. But it is just a large collection of really bad vibes since the start of D2 and the lack of any strong reason to make me believe he is town. Just too much has to come together to make him town at this point.

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Gimme another bullet and I would shoot Rels:

My townread on him was mostly based on this one post he made earlier and some other stuff like his rather "weird" reads during N1, which I would expect from a scum!SL but not from a scum!Rels from all I know about his play from our last game. (Yeah... shitty wifom... reads make no sense ->must be town, but true often enough ^^)
But I simply can't understand his "this makes PoE easier" posts... Seriously... No. This makes me doubt he ever seriously tried to do this and makes it more look like some front. If he had tried it, he would have noticed that those results completely trash his entire PoE-approach.

And this post also stood out for me:

This looks so much like drawing a CC, which again I can not understand. If you can figure it out without CC, you sure as hell wanna do that. Saying "I stop playing until there is a CC" is either the ultimatively lazy town approach, hoping that the game gets solved for you by others and everything is at is seems... Well.. Or it is scum not being sure if SL is the real JK (or knowing there is no JK in the game) and trying to bluehunt.

Overall this feeling on Rels is weaker than with TT. But give me a 2nd bullet and I would shoot Rels with a good conscience.

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If I had to shoot more... I guess I would continue with Onegu, just for afk's sake and there is really nothing to judge him from. If there is still scum left.... Uh.. Put on the tinfoil!

I admit I haven't explicitly reread everyone so take this final sorted list with a grain of salt outside of those explicitly mentioned.

<<<SCUM>>>
TT
Rels

Onegu

DF
Emp
LS
SL
HF
<<<TOWN>>>

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You made it! You made it to the end. Thanks for reading.
Here is your reward:
+ Show Spoiler +

GL GUYS!