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On December 09 2016 06:57 emperorchampion wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 18:34 mahrgell wrote:
Good morning...
Went to bed feeling good.
Woke up, read thread.
Feeling great now.
There is not even a reason to invite shenannies anymore...
so...
##vote sicklucker
PS: If there is any interesting discussion left for me, it is:
If there is a scum between DF and Onegu, who is it? But this questions is kinda far away, I don't think it has to be asked, and if it is, I have a clear opinion on it.
Way ahead of your time m-god. Do you remember what you were thinking here? It's pretty non-obvious from your filter. I dunno reading Mahr's filter, he doesn't look like mafia to me. The more I think about it, the less sure I am of darth. Onegu still OK with atm.
Okay, I guess we go a bit back here:
- at start of the day I considered both options of SL being VT and Scum, and TT was my topscum (see EoN2)
- when suddenly everyone jumped him, I was very worried, because if he was VT and died there, the game was suddenly simply over. There would be 2 lynches left to lynch 2 scum out of 6 players, Rels would not have a conclusive check before he dies (and he is JK, but the lack of CC made this rather likely), and pretty much everyone was a potential scum.
- even more worrying though was that nobody even considered this option. Everyone was very determined on lynching SL, which to me lead to either the option that town was fucking asleep or scum was doing really damn good work here
- I even detailed how SLs play made sense so far
- SL never showed up (but a townSL could have now started posting seriously))
- then SL showed up, he dropped his pure trolly style, but even made longer serious posts. Sadly they were completely awful. His reads were randomized, his TMI explanation was terrible, and the most striking part was him being insistant on this "I tried to post at EoN" which was like... NO! I knew exactly that there were at best 20 secs between Rels claim and deadline.
- I considered this a scumclaim. His actions did not at all matched the town!SL I had in mind. They perfectly matched the scum!SL who had done this shit all D1-D2 with only causing confusion and random posts...
- with SL being scum, suddenly the game was rather easy:
--- HF was a townlock for me for reasons I repeated enough today
--- Rels was almost certainly the JK, and had clearly stated that for him it was between TT and you in the next night. From all I have seen from Rels(we played together in the newbiegame and I had a superheated discussion early D3) I did not consider him to be a trickster. He does what he says. He does not say stuff to bait people...
--- You were kinda Neut
--- TT was still my topscum (besides SL, obv)
--- Onegu was a trouble some wildcard
--- DF I had an extremely good impression
So the game was a railroad from here:
lynch SL, check Emp/TT, lynch the other if scum not found, if game is still not end, there is a decision between DF and Onegu. I was pretty set on Onegu here, but as I saw some potential on WIFOM plays night4, if it comes to that, I did not want to share this already made decision.
There are some sidelines with people trying to fake N3 by shooting at Rels target... But those all seemed to not work at all, even if Rels target is lynched, the game becomes only worse for scum.
With this in mind, there was one way out for scum... WIFOM. The game was fucking over. But all scum could do was setting up WIFOMs aka "scum would have surrendered if this was true" or "this game is too easy, cant be that"
------
Next morning, I woke up, checked the thread... And I saw exactly what I had expected. TT and you were suddenly in some weird 1on1. This made absolutely no sense at this point. And especially your insistence on 40% chance of SL being town made no sense for all kinds of reasons I had detailed earlier. So with this convo you pretty much caught up in scummyness with TT, but luckily I wouldn't have to pick between you two.
Rels was still on track on checking between you two, and I felt HF was exactly on the same boat. So there was this silent town circle thing.
All that was needed now was to STFU. Not talking to cut down any potential for WIFOM plays. Let exactly those players who were the suspects here initiate it.
---
I guess I stop here or do you want a continuation?
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On December 09 2016 02:21 mahrgell wrote:
What was your "obvious lynch order" earlier?
And if you are just nervous about HF and feel Emp is super scummy... Why not kill Emp? Like it feels weird you want to make the "difficult maybe" kill first... And then somehow leave Emp for later...
If Emp is not scum, and he is not really trying to give us any reasons to believe that, then you can waffle about HF, Onegu and me for 72 hours...
If Emp is scum, the game ends...
@DF
I ust noticed, you ignored this question. Care to answer it?
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On December 09 2016 08:02 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 02:21 mahrgell wrote:
What was your "obvious lynch order" earlier?
And if you are just nervous about HF and feel Emp is super scummy... Why not kill Emp? Like it feels weird you want to make the "difficult maybe" kill first... And then somehow leave Emp for later...
If Emp is not scum, and he is not really trying to give us any reasons to believe that, then you can waffle about HF, Onegu and me for 72 hours...
If Emp is scum, the game ends... @DF I ust noticed, you ignored this question. Care to answer it?
Trying to find my post this question prompted. If you're talking about my lynch order before I sheeped HF, it was probably emp--> onegu
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On December 09 2016 02:08 darthfoley wrote:
hi i'm back
so this characterization of my play since D1 is not true imo. D2 I cased Shape pretty hard and was one of the driving forces behind the lynch. Unfortunately, I got that wrong.
Regarding D3, I had made my opinion of SL very clear before he fake claimed JK. I even wanted to lynch him back as early as D1. Like everyone, I was a little confused initially with Rels's cc at night but I made my mind up and voted SL and had no reservations about it.
It's not my fault there hasn't been much to talk about until today. The lynch order in my mind from D2 until now has been kind of obvious. I guess i've been a bit lazy outside of the lynches but there's no real point imo in concocting all these scenarios of hypotheticals contingent on X being Y and Z being Q. I think about the motivation of plays, but not specific players if that makes sense. Better to see what the flip is any analyze from there.
As of now I think Onegu is probably town because of his interpretation of the long no-post phase, which I hadn't thought of but makes a lot of sense from town POV. Mahrgell meh his wall of texts and hedging makes me more nervous than his supposed slip but I guess I have to lean him town because of the other two. I'm super paranoid about HF although I need to rethink my case considering JKs can spam JK on someone multiple nights in a row. Can't remember the last time Emp said something I thought was towny.
As of now I think the order should be HF --> emp or vice versa. I want confirmed!TT to come back pls
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Oh yea the lynch order of Shapelog + checkm8 then SL. I originally thought it would take three days cuz of no mod kill. I had been suspicious of SL since d1 but I wasn't going to push it until the afk people were out of the game
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Oh... thought you were talking about lynch order for the rest of the game...
Like in what order to cut down the remaining players until all scum have dropped ^.^
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Oh nah not that. At this point I'm pretty set on my EC vote. He hasn't done anything to change my mind currently. I thought HF and TT cased him pretty thoroughly a couple days ago.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
Then why were you voting me??????????
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On December 09 2016 08:53 Holyflare wrote:
Then why were you voting me??????????
Cuz I'm paranoid that I'm being duped
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And I didn't understand the JK thing
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On December 09 2016 08:51 darthfoley wrote:
Oh nah not that. At this point I'm pretty set on my EC vote. He hasn't done anything to change my mind currently. I thought HF and TT cased him pretty thoroughly a couple days ago.
What makes the case particularly convincing to you, why such a lazy read at this point?
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On December 09 2016 07:21 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 07:04 Tictock wrote:
Ok I got a minute so couple of things.
Gell, why do you call your post at start of day a joke?
I could see you make that post as Town, but I didn't respond to HF last night as I wanted to see your response. Calling it a joke feels weird to me and doesn't match what I would expect a town to be thinking when he makes those posts.
I called it a joke, because it was meant as one... Do you want me to make up some weird story how I made this post? And I think I explained enough what my thinking was at that time. You want me to repeat it again?
No.
The problem I have with you calling it a joke is very similar to the point I made about SL's reaction to Rels' claim. He claimed he was angry Rels claimed before he could retract but then wanted to make some play off of it. His actions did not match with what he claimed was going on in his head.
Similarly you saying those posts were jokes is weird because I don't understand how that would be a moment when you felt like joking. Like a couple people mentioned I think most people would be waiting for a possible Endgame post even if it was late (which it wasn't). You on the other hand claim that you were waiting and watching the clock and somehow decided that it was a good time to crack a joke about the mods and assume I wasn't mafia.
Now I could see someone waiting at that time and think "oh mod post is late, guess they are working out actions and must mean the game is going on" or something and make that post, but that is a serious thought.
So it's weird to me that you would decided to make a joke for nearly the first time all game at that moment. I also am leery about you calling it a joke because that implies it was just a silly comment that meant nothing, when clearly you were very seriously concluding that I was Town there. Also your responses to HF calling you scum there felt a bit odd. Like I don't think I've seen you so flippant or brief in your posting before.
I called HF's point bullshit kus I saw the towny perpestive I mentioned before and wasn't sure what motive scum would have to post something like that. Actually that is still an issue, I'm not sure why you, as scum, would make a post like that before the flip.
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The big thing that gives me pause about a possible scum!Gell is that he is so adamant about HF being Town today.
He even pointed out a very possible play for mafia with SL carrying KP on N3 (he keeps calling it N2 erroneously, in case that was confusing anyone). SL might have carried KP in case he got JK'd because he could then claim that the real JK stopped mafia from killing him and could argue that he was confirmed town. Gell is right it would have given Town a lynch but it would have bought SL several days before the question of why he hadn't been NK'd came up.
It is an odd thing for a scum!Gell to do to backup my point about SL possibly carrying KP (and thus nullify HF's argument about being practically confirmed) but also still use that same idea to keep HF as Town in his reads.
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I'm also finding myself having to admit that there are towny points in HF's favor but I'm still having a hard time not being paranoid about him possibly being scum.
I'm also fairly confident if my and HF's roles were reversed he'd be pushing exactly the same thing I am. After all nobody was willing to really consider me Town regardless of my posts the past few days until Rels made me confirmed.
Any ways, that is kinda where my head is at right now. I just got home though so I will reread stuff and take a look at filters in a couple of hours. Like I said I have the day off tomorrow so will be putting in work before EoD.
Right now I'm still not seeing a problem with making a safety lynch on HF and making him give us his best guess for the last scum before then so if he is Town you guys can use that to go on tomorrow and obviously I will do the same at Night.
It's not the exciting Yolo, "I scumread this guy let's get him" play, but I think it's a safe play.
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Reread Gells posts from today. Don't think he is mafia.
I can reasonably understand where he was coming from in those posts and I see no reason for a scum!Gell to be itching to make a post that he wouldn't wait for the daypost.
Looking back a bit further Gell's lead off with Emp is in perfect line with his PoE being down to Me and Emp. There are also too many posts from Gell that I rather like. He's obstinant about his reads and is following a super clear path to clear the game.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
Zzzz what a waste of time. We just lynch emp here because when it's come down to it he's still produced 0 content today and when he's forced to make a read he's just copied what I said about darth abd nahr vs sl
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Looking over Darth's posts today I don't get quite as strong a read on him.
He seems to just go back and forth between sheeping HF to sheeping me and then to sheeping Gell. All of which is kinda shit IMO kus it's such an easy ride to just go with the flow at this point. However, I don't feel like Darth is just in for the ride here.
I will do another post later expanding on Darths play over the game, but I'm still pretty inclined to to townread the guy. One big thing is that SL tried to push Darth fairly hard D2 in a way that really looked like Mafia on Town.
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On December 09 2016 15:49 Holyflare wrote:
Zzzz what a waste of time. We just lynch emp here because when it's come down to it he's still produced 0 content today and when he's forced to make a read he's just copied what I said about darth abd nahr vs sl
Always bringing everything others do down.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
Rather than criticise me, who for some shit reason you want to lynch first despite now agreeing with the slip but also not, much like me, why don't you tell me what's towny about emp's posts today mr ticktock?
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First thing that jumps out at me for HF is how much his reads changed from last night.
On December 08 2016 01:40 Holyflare wrote:
Nah it doesn't matter I love you really DF.
It's one of emp/tt/onegu so autopilout for life.
I get confirmed then HF rules out Onegu/Emp with words and gets super ramped up over a very iffy scum slip from Gell.
In response to Onegu:
On December 08 2016 07:27 Holyflare wrote:
Emperor's reaction just now was super towny maybe and I think sl went hardcore that you were town.
I also don't think you'd bother making a ticktock case just after sl got lynched.
Super flippant Emp read, halfway decent Onegu read. Not the worst post but this is to defend this new read on Gell which is actually really opportunistic assuming Gell is town.
Bunch of posts trying to get argumentative with me over Gell's supposed slip.
On December 08 2016 16:50 Holyflare wrote:
And if you're not mafia which is possible then you should be going agyer darthfoley and not emo
Look at this, trying to turn Gell on Darth. Breaking apart what was part of HF's town circle just last cycle.
On December 08 2016 16:52 Holyflare wrote:
His reaction was absolutely bad in comparison to the other two.
I am also definitely never lynching onegu so I don't entirely mind emo into darth if that'll make you sleep better
Now HF is negotiating with Gell. Letting him lynch Emp and then again pushing sus on Darth.
Bunch of posts that are either WIFOM or just don't jump out at me. Finally settles on Emp as being the "most logical, based on providing the least content"
Just have to call out that HF also makes a few comments that try to undermine my opinions. Somewhat natural since I'm proposing lynching him but they are also pretty cute attempts to make it sound like you shouldn't listen to me.
I find the dramatic shift in reads very worrying here and I really can't help but see half the things HF is trying to do is just keep shade on the townier people in the game as much as possible.
Honestly looking over the past 48-ish hours of HF's posts I am actually more concerned than I was before.
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EPT
