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Newbie Student Mafia XXIII - Page 59

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
September 30 2016 20:08 GMT
#1161
On October 01 2016 04:32 Xatalos wrote:
Sadly, the main result of that analysis was that DYH didn't really fit into many scumteams (except maybe with scott), and that's already irrelevant now.


Its cool. That post just bothered me a bit but with how much you post it wasn't worth reading old games.
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
September 30 2016 20:22 GMT
#1162
On October 01 2016 04:59 Calix wrote:
What's the case on Scott again? I know he had some dubious associations with Lunatic but I don't remember anything else that he's done.

I'm not sure why people are suddenly getting cold feet around Stutters when he hasn't done anything but inquire about Scott.

I'm an enigma?

I'll type something up on Scott if you like, but the tl;dr for me is very cautious play and his contributions have been anything but definite. I need to double check his meta to make sure I remember right, but he feels off. It got brought up again because his terrible post about me.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
September 30 2016 20:24 GMT
#1163
I'll write up a case on Scott later.

His push on Stutters seemed really out of place to me. He asked my opinion, then ignored my response to make a bad push on somebody who hasn't been around and everyone is scum reading anyways.

A few other things feel like they are falling into place considering Scott as scum as well, but I'm still mulling things over.
I can take that responsibility.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
September 30 2016 20:25 GMT
#1164
Yes Stutters, I would appreciate something longer than three lines from you. I'm sure you can understand.

I can even save you some time and tell you to can it with the meta because I won't give a fuck.

Take it while stock lasts!
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
September 30 2016 20:26 GMT
#1165
Oh I am throwing a vote down btw, sorry kinda only half here atm.

##Vote: Scott
I can take that responsibility.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
September 30 2016 20:29 GMT
#1166
Like I said, I don't have much of an opinion on the dude himself so I'm all ears. At the least, this'll be a change in discussion focus which we could do with tbh. I feel like we've been focused a lot on the same 2-3 people.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 30 2016 21:01 GMT
#1167
On October 01 2016 04:49 Tictock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 01 2016 04:07 Xatalos wrote:
On October 01 2016 03:10 Tictock wrote:
On October 01 2016 02:55 Xatalos wrote:
In any case, they should be both lynched over stutters every time.

If stutters keeps getting votes, I'll probably need to share my other reason. But the first reason (Lunatic's scum->town-like reaction to stutters) is already pretty clear.


Lets play a game...

Just based on posts made from the start of this Phase, who would you vote between Scott/Skynx?

At least a sentence as to why as well plz.


Oh yeah, forgot this post.

scott maybe. Didn't really like his post asking for what actions to take today from you (too consensus-blendy). His post against stutters was also a bit WTF (that's a reason to suspect him, like really now?). His reasons to suspect me were also pretty forced and sudden.

Skynx didn't really do anything of note today.

So yeah, scott has started to look worse lately. Maybe he would even be the safer bet at this rate.

Why?


Not sure that you've ever really given a proper scumread on Skynx. If my glance through your filter is correct that read started because of your team speculation post.


It started to develop from reading ptmc's giant event listing post and he became a solid scumread sometime after that when I read his filter. My first case on him was pretty flawed though, you can pretty much ignore it (and seems like you did lol). Focused on little additional details in that rather than the main points that were already mentioned by ptmc. In my association thingy I did a more comprehensive listing of my reads, including a small, more focused case on Skynx (focusing heavily on the Lunatic association). Afterwards noticed some more things such as his huge tunnel on me after I started suspecting him, which felt too strong for whatever reasons he said.

And process of elimination doesn't leave much room for Skynx to be town either at this point.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 30 2016 21:01 GMT
#1168
On October 01 2016 05:08 Stutters695 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 01 2016 04:32 Xatalos wrote:
Sadly, the main result of that analysis was that DYH didn't really fit into many scumteams (except maybe with scott), and that's already irrelevant now.


Its cool. That post just bothered me a bit but with how much you post it wasn't worth reading old games.


Hm?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
September 30 2016 21:04 GMT
#1169
On October 01 2016 05:24 Tictock wrote:
I'll write up a case on Scott later.

His push on Stutters seemed really out of place to me. He asked my opinion, then ignored my response to make a bad push on somebody who hasn't been around and everyone is scum reading anyways.

A few other things feel like they are falling into place considering Scott as scum as well, but I'm still mulling things over.


Would be interested to hear those "other things" before deadline.

Agreed that his play in this phase has been probably the most concerning out of anyone. Definitely more so than stutters.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
September 30 2016 21:25 GMT
#1170
On October 01 2016 06:01 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 01 2016 05:08 Stutters695 wrote:
On October 01 2016 04:32 Xatalos wrote:
Sadly, the main result of that analysis was that DYH didn't really fit into many scumteams (except maybe with scott), and that's already irrelevant now.


Its cool. That post just bothered me a bit but with how much you post it wasn't worth reading old games.


Hm?


It just felt out of place when I was reading it. Like not something I'd picture you doing as town but I couldn't pin it as scum you either. It's inconsequential anyway.
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 30 2016 21:41 GMT
#1171
If you all think Stutters is town and do not want to lynch him - it's fine. Him and Xatalos make the most sense to me though.

Seeing TicTock go after me makes me sad though - We've been having in sync thoughts and I guess cuz I had a few beers and things started to make more sense now he thinks I am mafia. But I'm pretty sure he's town. I don't why this has happened (his 180) - I guess cause of my base case on Stutters? It was more that he hasn't done shit - I know the mafia game link was weak.

I'll be back and forth - probably going out to eat though. Going to take it pretty easy today, I have a test tomorrow to take and I want a clear mind for it. Speaking of, I won't be here for deadline.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
September 30 2016 21:54 GMT
#1172
Day 3 Vote Count

Stutters695 (3): scott31337, ptmc, Calix
Skynx (1): Xatalos
Scott31337 (1): Tictock
Xatalos (0): scott31337


Not Voting (4): Stutters695, Jealous, Skynx, DanelerH
At the current vote count, Stutters695 is slated to be lynched.
You have to vote here. Voting is mandatory!
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
October 01 2016 09:36 GMT
#1173
Sorry guys didn't get a chance to type up my thoughts last night, so getting on that now.

Gotta say though I find it a bit disappointing that there are basically no new posts and that nobody tried to review a guy with a 3 page filter >.<
I can take that responsibility.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
October 01 2016 10:20 GMT
#1174
You're forgetting that the weekend's started. A drop in activity is only to be expected.

I'm popping out in five. I'll look him over when I get back and I'll probably be around for EOD.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
October 01 2016 10:49 GMT
#1175
The Case on Scott


Just for a change of pace and to keep this post from getting unmanageable I'm going to link to posts rather than quote them directly, at least for the most part.

Regarding Lunatic:
Feel like I should just get the done first and get it out of the way.

Scott first mentions Lunatic in #380 though he is pretty much just mirroring what has already been said about Lunatic. In the very next post Scott throws out doubts because nobody is defending Lunatic.

Last we get #518 which is when Scott decided to vote for Lunatic. To me this post reads as though Scott is reluctant to lynch Lunatic, but has no better alternatives (this will get into my next point).

So Scott parroted the concerns people had with Lunatic, threw out doubts, then voted Lunatic when there was really no other option. Also worth noting that after Scott posts #380 he has nothing to say about any other reads besides a post responding to stutters where he concludes SEQ was just under a null read.

D1 Read's and Progression:
Not quite the same as the last point, but related.

I pointed out that Scott didn't really talk about his reads after #380, but before that he posted #307 where he townreads Calix and Rels, and scumreads Jealous and Dane.

The problem here is that Scott gives no real indication of why he thinks they are scum, and these reads basically disappear after #380. In fact both Jealous and Dane later show up in #661 as townreads with no real mention of them in between.

So basically besides what I already talked about with Lunatic, Scott has no read progression at all with his D1 reads.

EoN2 Reads List:
Reviewing Scotts filter I realized that his reads posted in #1076 don't really make sense given his progression.

The biggest thing is the read on Xata, Scott had Xata as a townread in #661 and the only post relating to Xata I could find is Scott reacting to Xata's big "Possible teams" post. Problem is the read shift to scum here seems a bit exaggerated,
Guy is pretty defensive, doesn't like to give up information unless forced (Don't give town a damn thing style) - and feel like he's trying to mislynch Skynx, since I'm either being really pocketed or he's town. He also in his "scum team" and other posts seem to leave me as low hanging fruit.


I'm not gunna dig into this read much, besides note that it's odd that Scott accuses Xata of trying to mislynch Skynx. I will also make note for my next point that based on this reads list Xata is Scott's strongest scum read.

Push on Stutters today:
As I said before this was what first got me reconsidering my read on Scott.

So coming into today Scott and I apparently have very similar reads and Scott asks me,
On September 30 2016 07:02 scott31337 wrote:
A'ight. What do you think TT? Put some pressure on Xata? Wait for stutters to shit out some info? What do you think?

Which seems fine and resonable so I reply that pushing stutters is kinda pointless and ask him to talk to me about Xata. Scott still never responded to this.

Instead Scott "starts to see the light" and makes the push on Stutters. This bothers me not just because scott asked my opinion and this was the opposite of it, but because Stutters is already super-low hanging fruit that is widely scumread. What really makes this push unlikely to come from town imo is just how bad the points Scott brought up where. The comment stutters made about playing with Xata in the past is so NAI I'm amazed Scott even tried to make a post about it (I suspect that post was made to give screenshots and make it look like scott was trying to dig into things). The stuff about the past game where Super vigged Stutters had no real connection to this game since Super townread Stutters and when I spent 5 min glancing at Stutters filter that game I thought it was pretty clear the play we see from Stutters this game is very different from that scumgame.

Basically neither point Scott makes should suggest Stutters is scum, and reviewing the same stuff Scott did I came to the opposite conclusion.

Whats amazing is that even when I say we aren't lynching Stutters and that I want to lynch Scott, here is his response.
On October 01 2016 06:41 scott31337 wrote:
If you all think Stutters is town and do not want to lynch him - it's fine. Him and Xatalos make the most sense to me though.

Seeing TicTock go after me makes me sad though - We've been having in sync thoughts and I guess cuz I had a few beers and things started to make more sense now he thinks I am mafia. But I'm pretty sure he's town. I don't why this has happened (his 180) - I guess cause of my base case on Stutters? It was more that he hasn't done shit - I know the mafia game link was weak.

I'll be back and forth - probably going out to eat though. Going to take it pretty easy today, I have a test tomorrow to take and I want a clear mind for it. Speaking of, I won't be here for deadline.


No shits given if we don't lynch Stutters, no effort to push Xata, zero effort to read Xata better or read anyone else for that matter. Even admits his own point on Stutters was weak.

Misc:

Just a couple things I noticed that bug me.

On September 27 2016 07:04 scott31337 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2016 23:11 Superbia wrote:
Boy I do hope scum doesn't figure out I'm a PR.


Some one that may have been around after this post? Hmmm
Could be lurkers too, I shouldn't think too much of it.


Scott has pushed this a couple times as to why Super got killed. Scum didn't buy that post, nobody ever got fooled by that post. Even joking around I'm not sure why Scott would repeat this, but he did.

On September 30 2016 07:03 scott31337 wrote:
Also if there's a cop - remember there's a miller and a godfather, your checks can mean nothing.


Who wants to bet Scott is the goon? Lol.

Seriously though, this struck me as odd. I don't know why would town think to post this, but obv scum worried about getting checked would benefit from reminding any cop that there is some hate on his checks.




I think that about covers it. I've got a bit more to say as I've got a pretty good running theory about who the last scum is as well, but I'll go ahead and save that for now kus it might get confusing.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
October 01 2016 10:51 GMT
#1176
On October 01 2016 19:20 Calix wrote:
You're forgetting that the weekend's started. A drop in activity is only to be expected.

I'm popping out in five. I'll look him over when I get back and I'll probably be around for EOD.


Pfft, you people with lives...
I can take that responsibility.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 13:51 GMT
#1177
On October 01 2016 19:51 Tictock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 01 2016 19:20 Calix wrote:
You're forgetting that the weekend's started. A drop in activity is only to be expected.

I'm popping out in five. I'll look him over when I get back and I'll probably be around for EOD.


Pfft, you people with lives...




As for the scott post, I agree that his sudden shift to scumreading me felt too forced/strong. More like he decided to push me and threw some reasons as an afterthought. Same with how he treated stutters. I have no idea how a townie could read stutters' joke posts about my meta and come to the conclusion that it makes stutters scum.. Even more so, if the scumteam was me+stutters (like scott suggested), how would that whole theory even make sense? stutters would have "pushed" me with fake meta, and for what reason? I could maybe somehow understand the idea behind it (even if it would make little sense) if he thought I was town and stutters scum, but his reason to scumread stutters just makes no sense if he's sure I'm scum with stutters... Absolutely no sense at all.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 13:55 GMT
#1178
Yeah, scott is the way to go. How would town even make that post reminding the Cop that his checks are "almost meaningless"? Especially right after night ended where he was under suspicion? Town scott wouldn't feel threatened in that situation, but scum scott certainly would.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 01 2016 16:33 GMT
#1179
Hm, is anyone else around?

I hope people will see the light about scott so that I won't have to tell my other reasoning on stutters. It would almost certainly be detrimental if I had to do that.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
DanelerH
Profile Joined August 2016
96 Posts
October 01 2016 17:13 GMT
#1180
As much as I'd still like to lynch Stutters, Tictock's case against Scott seems really strong. I think I'll wait to see what Scott says in xyr defense, then make a decision.
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