On June 07 2016 09:04 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2016 00:53 Fecalfeast wrote:On June 06 2016 15:07 Jealous wrote:
My analysis of the data is the following and is reflected above in the chart.
1. I find FecalFeast the most suspicious now in my eyes. My reasoning is this:
FF reads EC town
FF reads EC town
FF support Jealous read QT scum
FF defends QT, questions Jealous
FF switches vote to kush, as per Superbia
FF defends EC
FF questions BTDT, defends Jealous
FF softreads Moosy, Skynx, Jealous, BTDT scum
In the chronological order of reads above, he flips his stance on QT around the time when it is clear that QT is going to be lynched, he switches his vote to kush after Superbia does, possibly giving him a convenient out? He then doesn't even read him as scum verbally. He also seems to be overly defensive/supportive of EC.
2. I need to do further analysis on EC to see if there is a connection there. I don't think Superbia is implicated here, although he could be.
3. I am going to stick to my stance on TT and Skynx as I haven't seen any suspicious behavior from them and do enjoy their analysis. I am also leaning town on Tumblewood.
4. BC and Scott really haven't contributed much of anything.
5. MoosyDoosy's gameplay is completely nonsensical. Can you provide quotes on where you think I did this drastic switch btw? I looked at my filter and I can't really figure out what posts you attribute to all of these "actions" I made? Why does what I did make me scum, even? Changing reads is something I do on the fly because I prefer to look at the game as it is happening most of the time until later in the game. Also because I have the memory of a goldfish. Just to remind jealous to respondto this
+ Show Spoiler [Corresponding posts] +On June 05 2016 06:34 Fecalfeast wrote:
Oh yeah i also like emperorchamp for town On June 06 2016 05:02 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2016 05:01 Jealous wrote:On June 06 2016 04:45 QuickTwist wrote:On June 06 2016 04:21 Jealous wrote:
As far as the other posters, I'm glad that people have started pushing some ideas around as we approach the deadline. Here are some thoughts I have on the game so far:
1. I think that a lot of people in this thread are grasping at straws right now, which is understandable because there isn't much to go off of on Day 1. I don't see any utterly clear alliances here as of yet. It seems like a lot of A thinks B is scum who thinks C is scum who thinks D is scum who thinks A is scum, or something of the like.
2. Given the seemingly inconclusive finger-pointing patters so far, we will have to wait to see the results of the lynch and who voted for whom as our next indicator. As of right now, if my hypothesis is correct and QT is scum, then the people who voted alongside him without much early justification would be kushmountains and Tumblewood, who have not changed their vote despite the player being changed out and I found their arguments for removing sqrt to be weak in the first place (inactivity plynch 2 hours into the game, if I recall correctly? on top of that, other people were just as inactive). This is the most alliance-y thing I can point at so far, but it's too early for me to concretely say I feel that they are scum.
3. Following this line of logic, I don't feel that the votes/inclinations on QT are indicative of a scum alliance because most people have shown their own reasons for voting for QT, most of which are valid, or at least more valid in my eyes than a Scott lynch. Of course, if QT flips town it is possible that one or two scum bandwagoned in order to ensure that he wins over Scott in the last voting push, but it will be hard to tell who. It's simply too early to speculate in specific terms about who would be scum or not in this hypothetical scenario, so I will wait until I see all of the votes and their results.
4. I haven't gotten a strong read on anyone, which is probably because I'm newbie. So far my "could be scum" list is:
1. Kushmountains
2. Tumblewood
3. Superbia (weak read on this, don't have much certainty at all)
4. Fecalfeast (too absent, regardless of whatever excuses he may have)
and of course QT.
Everyone else, as far as I can tell, is townie. Scott can be thrown up there as well for his relative inactivity but I don't think it's fair to judge as quickly because he only learned he was in the game less than 24 hours ago. What if I said YOU could be scum if I turn out to be Town. Baseless you think? Honestly it is really freaking annoying you haven't re-evaluated your read on me and somehow everything I do is scummy to you. That is the definition of confirmation bias. So because you have chosen to no re-evaluate your read on me, even though my content has improved as the shit posting of day 1 decreases. can't help but think you are pushing an agenda. Claiming VT. ##Vote: Jealous Your only concrete argument as far as I recall is the one you just made, which is that I am pushing an agenda, so it's not entirely baseless. However, as objective as I can possibly be about this, I would have to say that your argument is weak. The majority of the town has read me as town, and for some that was a choice between scumreading me or you. I will concede that your posting has definitely improved since the first 24 hours. I see what you mean by confirmation bias now more clearly. I will justify by saying it is akin to how one approaches science: you formulate a hypothesis, run a test, gather some data, try to ascertain a conclusion. Then you present your article for peer review. So far peer review has corroborated my initial findings. The initial results will be put to the test after we see the flop. Although you claimed Blue PR since the first minutes of the game, which could've meant anything since you were shitposting a lot in that time, this is the first time you've claimed VT. MoosyDoosy also claimed VT, if I'm correct in assuming VT = Veteran, but his posting has been inconsistent too. I'm not saying this to make any sort of point, just doing stream of consciousness at the moment. I don't think it'd be wise of you to claim Blue PR if you actually were a Blue PR in the first minutes of the game, because scum would know that you are not scum, and thus when both the Day 1 lynch and the first scum kill are relative stabs in the dark, this seems like a poor strategy because it paints a target on your back. Of course, this could backfire and cause us to do scum's work for them, but I believe that there is no stronger case right now for anyone else and thus I will maintain my vote for you. VT is Vanilla Townie which makes his new claim more dubious imo On June 06 2016 05:18 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2016 05:09 Jealous wrote:On June 06 2016 05:05 QuickTwist wrote:On June 06 2016 05:01 Jealous wrote:On June 06 2016 04:45 QuickTwist wrote:On June 06 2016 04:21 Jealous wrote:
As far as the other posters, I'm glad that people have started pushing some ideas around as we approach the deadline. Here are some thoughts I have on the game so far:
1. I think that a lot of people in this thread are grasping at straws right now, which is understandable because there isn't much to go off of on Day 1. I don't see any utterly clear alliances here as of yet. It seems like a lot of A thinks B is scum who thinks C is scum who thinks D is scum who thinks A is scum, or something of the like.
2. Given the seemingly inconclusive finger-pointing patters so far, we will have to wait to see the results of the lynch and who voted for whom as our next indicator. As of right now, if my hypothesis is correct and QT is scum, then the people who voted alongside him without much early justification would be kushmountains and Tumblewood, who have not changed their vote despite the player being changed out and I found their arguments for removing sqrt to be weak in the first place (inactivity plynch 2 hours into the game, if I recall correctly? on top of that, other people were just as inactive). This is the most alliance-y thing I can point at so far, but it's too early for me to concretely say I feel that they are scum.
3. Following this line of logic, I don't feel that the votes/inclinations on QT are indicative of a scum alliance because most people have shown their own reasons for voting for QT, most of which are valid, or at least more valid in my eyes than a Scott lynch. Of course, if QT flips town it is possible that one or two scum bandwagoned in order to ensure that he wins over Scott in the last voting push, but it will be hard to tell who. It's simply too early to speculate in specific terms about who would be scum or not in this hypothetical scenario, so I will wait until I see all of the votes and their results.
4. I haven't gotten a strong read on anyone, which is probably because I'm newbie. So far my "could be scum" list is:
1. Kushmountains
2. Tumblewood
3. Superbia (weak read on this, don't have much certainty at all)
4. Fecalfeast (too absent, regardless of whatever excuses he may have)
and of course QT.
Everyone else, as far as I can tell, is townie. Scott can be thrown up there as well for his relative inactivity but I don't think it's fair to judge as quickly because he only learned he was in the game less than 24 hours ago. What if I said YOU could be scum if I turn out to be Town. Baseless you think? Honestly it is really freaking annoying you haven't re-evaluated your read on me and somehow everything I do is scummy to you. That is the definition of confirmation bias. So because you have chosen to no re-evaluate your read on me, even though my content has improved as the shit posting of day 1 decreases. can't help but think you are pushing an agenda. Claiming VT. ##Vote: Jealous Your only concrete argument as far as I recall is the one you just made, which is that I am pushing an agenda, so it's not entirely baseless. However, as objective as I can possibly be about this, I would have to say that your argument is weak. The majority of the town has read me as town, and for some that was a choice between scumreading me or you. I will concede that your posting has definitely improved since the first 24 hours. I see what you mean by confirmation bias now more clearly. I will justify by saying it is akin to how one approaches science: you formulate a hypothesis, run a test, gather some data, try to ascertain a conclusion. Then you present your article for peer review. So far peer review has corroborated my initial findings. The initial results will be put to the test after we see the flop. Although you claimed Blue PR since the first minutes of the game, which could've meant anything since you were shitposting a lot in that time, this is the first time you've claimed VT. MoosyDoosy also claimed VT, if I'm correct in assuming VT = Veteran, but his posting has been inconsistent too. I'm not saying this to make any sort of point, just doing stream of consciousness at the moment. I don't think it'd be wise of you to claim Blue PR if you actually were a Blue PR in the first minutes of the game, because scum would know that you are not scum, and thus when both the Day 1 lynch and the first scum kill are relative stabs in the dark, this seems like a poor strategy because it paints a target on your back. Of course, this could backfire and cause us to do scum's work for them, but I believe that there is no stronger case right now for anyone else and thus I will maintain my vote for you. OMG you are so wrong its not even funny. VT stands for vanilla townie. You are lynching the most worthless role there is in this game based on confirmation bias. People should take a really good look at you tomorrow. Yea, I made that mistake, again (posted this on the previous page), please disregard that last line of reasoning. However, this does not make the rest of the post "OMG so wrong." I stand by it. If you're saying the truth and you flip VT tomorrow, that would be unfortunate but not as bad as you being a blue PR, so that's taken a load off my shoulders ^^ If you're lying and you're scum, then that would be great and I'd be a boss. I'm liking this scenario. I really don't like this line of thinking. Yeah of course it's better to kill vt than blue but if you think there's a decent chance he is town why are you still so adamant about killing qt? On June 06 2016 05:20 Fecalfeast wrote:
I'm going to agree with super again and switch to kush On June 06 2016 06:47 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2016 06:43 Tictock wrote:On June 06 2016 06:38 MoosyDoosy wrote:On June 06 2016 06:37 Tictock wrote:On June 06 2016 05:34 emperorchampion wrote:
I don't think too much has been said in the last few pages to sway my opinion on voting QT. What I'm thinking is that if QT is town, tumble is probably town and jealous is maf. And if QT if maf, tumble is probably maf, jealous is town.
kush is a bit of a toss up, his filter is pretty empty but maybe he has an excuse? The plynch seems a little off to me.
Why would QT being mafia make you think Tumble is mafia with him? tumble pressured QuickTwist a ton but ended up saying a policy lynch was better. I thought it was a bit suspicious too but i think kush would be more likely Mafia than Tumble if QuickTwist flips Mafia. Yea ok, I can see that. And yea Kush might be a fine lynch as well. Honestly though I'm just not sure if I really care who gets lynched between QT, Kush, Skynx, and emp atm. Lots of people not really giving out good town vibes is making this a bit of a toss up lynch. What is your beef with emperor On June 06 2016 07:44 Fecalfeast wrote:
Wow that btdt post is bad he gives qt a pass for activity but then doesn't even mention the fact that jealous has been just as active On June 06 2016 11:38 Fecalfeast wrote:
moose could be trying too hard to emulate his townplay and he was pretty late to vote.
I didn't like skynx before when i was catching up but I can't quite remember why.
Starting to get worried that lawyer jesus is huge-posting his way into every towncircle
I seem to have written "reads EC town" twice by accident, a clerical error.
The first part of your response is fairly logical, the second seems like a paltry excuse. However, I've reconsidered my position on you for other reasons that I am still WIFOM on so I'm going to say that you are null for me right now.
|
EPT
