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On February 16 2016 11:33 Trfel wrote:Palmar is town because he doesn't do this as scum  Simple. 100% correct. Well, okay, not 100% because he didn't actually do anything, but close to it for the other additional reasons that I gave. Anyway, Eden's entrance in his two latest games was significantly later than his posts in this game. Maybe I'm overestimating the interest of the thread early on. I'll look at Eden's filter again.
Did you even bother to read the games you cited as evidence against me?
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I forgot that I even did that!
This must be the optimal line of play, since I independently thought of it twice over a year apart from each other.
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Such a concrete and specific bar you've set for my posting! "Solving the game." What the hell does that even mean, five and a half hours into the start of the game, when only half of the players have said something approaching meaningful?
"Sharing reads" I did, when I had the opportunity and had something worth pursuing. I already acknowledged that my read on rsoultin wasn't as solid as I would have liked. I only bring it up at all because I have a history of being able to evaluate her alignment based on the tone of her posts, which makes me more willing to trust an otherwise-spurious townread on her.
Actually, that's not wholly true. I have a couple of other townreads (Shapelog and Tictock), but I didn't share those immediately because I knew they were informed by the fact that I think my line this game has been obviously townie and correct, and subsequently tinted by my emotional predisposition to like people who understand what I'm doing. It's certainly not going to be helpful to you, since you're under the erroneous presumption that my setup posts have been useless, but once you recognize that this presumption is erroneous, you'll be able to see why their read on me is insightful and makes them somewhat more likely than not to be town.
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On February 16 2016 11:41 Trfel wrote:
I found Palmar's push on Breshke interesting, I found sicklucker's first few posts interesting, I found Breshke's response to Palmar's push a bit interesting, and I found some of Tictock's post somewhat interesting.
Rsoultin, did you find any of these things interesting?
I'm glad you did, but that doesn't make them of any objective interest in determining their alignments.
You can also just come out and say that you think I'm mafia for failing to find these things interesting instead of using these veiled snippy rhetorical questions.
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If that was a sincere question to you, it's a pretty crappy one. What did he find interesting that he wanted you to comment on? Suppose you were mafia, that's just a free invitation to just say whatever about any of these guys and maybe even look townie for it. There's no direction to any of what he said, it's just literally "I think ABCD people did interesting things what do you think about these things I didn't even identify in my question?"
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I got halfway through responding to that but decided this whole thing is stupid and pedantic.
Not that you are. The conversation is just not doing anything helpful for either of us or (presumably) anybody else. I also feel like I'm being unduly backhanded and snide and would like to stop doing that.
Suffice to say that I value trying to 'break' setups however possible, which is why I talk about setups all the time at the beginning of games. I don't think inviting millers to claim is actually going to win the game all by itself, but it's a small advantage that breaks our way, and enough of those piling up matters.
I also chime in with reads whenever I have something meaningful, and given enough time, I find meaningful things. You know that and I know you know that, so I'm going to ask you to trust that this will happen again this game.
Maybe we should talk about what you found interesting that I didn't. I was kinda interested in that but let my pettiness take over for a bit. I know you talked about those guys already and I could look it up in your filter, but humor me as to what you find interesting in those people you listed?
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All I got time for today is some filter diving, will try to figure out about where I stand on everybody in the next hour or so.
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Palmar hasn't done anything outside of his town or mafia range yet to my estimation. He has this post of mafia reads which is underwhelming.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 16 2016 20:31 Palmar wrote:
List of mafia:
Trfel for TMI on my alignment and something I can't remember
Breshke for 100% mafia
Tumblewood for complaining
sicklucker for complaining about useless day
Tictock for sheeping other people when he knows he's best player
I'm not really convinced by most of it. His Breshke read is literally a "whatever" read, as in you read it and go "whatever" and move on. Easy to make, means nothing in itself, the correct decision is to ignore he even made it and see how much he cares about it when other people don't. Same with Tictock, although that one seems more clearly facetious.
I'm sympathetic to the idea of taking out players who complain about the day being useless and don't do anything else... but I'm not as sure how mafia-indicative it is though. In practice I think this tends to come from town and mafia both about the same, and it tends to indicate the extent to which people feel empowered to affect the game more than their alignment. We've taken it as a truism here that every townie is empowered to affect the game, and thus by extension given ourselves the heuristic that people who express a lack of feeling of that empowerment, but don't appear to do anything about it, are mafia. Realistically, though, townies feel disconnected from games all the time, and will complain about it if they're emotionally invested in the game but don't comprehend the means for them to affect it.
A lot of words to say basically that I don't think Tumblewood and sicklucker can be considered suspicious *solely* for complaining about the day being useless.
So we're left with the Trfel read, which is substantially more understandable. Trfel's read on Palmar is very vague.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 16 2016 08:55 Trfel wrote:
As mafia, Palmar doesn't push people in this way. And yes, I still feel comfortable with this read even before seeing the reasons or the followup. On February 16 2016 08:59 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2016 08:03 Palmar wrote:
trfel might be too, but breshke 100+% I guess I should have left this with my above post, but to make my read a bit more clear, this is the post that makes me think that Palmar is town. It's not just that he's irrationally confident that Breshke is town, even without sharing reasons. As mafia, Palmar doesn't push things this way, he just doesn't. It's not a very direct method for scum to go "this guy is scum, this guy is scum, no I'm not going to tell you why but he's definitely scum". For Palmar to go out of his normal playstyle in an indirect manner like this, and then go farther to add that I (Trfel) might be mafia, I'm almost certain it's not in Palmar's mafia mindset. It's such an indirect approach for mafia to take with minimal gain, since it doesn't at all line up mislynches. Anyway, I hope that makes a little sense, I'm bad at explaining stuff.
Feels bad to attack Trfel's read for being poorly explained when he explicitly notes that he is poor at explaining some things, and when he seems sincere enough in his posting (i.e. it doesn't *feel* like he's trying to convince us he means it, when he's really just throwing something out there). But I don't get what Trfel means here in the least. Palmar wasn't really pushing anything with Breshke. He said Breshke was 100% mafia and then immediately proceeded to do nothing to develop it -- no explanation of the read for the rest of the town to comprehend, no push to get Breshke lynched, not even a vote for Breshke himself. Trfel says this is a weird way for Palmar to push something, and then connects it to how mafia Palmar pushes things, and thus calls Palmar town for it. But I don't even see this as a push, so the comparison to mafia Palmar's pushing tactics and subsequent townread is a stretch.
So I think it's reasonable for Palmar to call it TMI, but I'm not sold just on this basis that Trfel is mafia. I don't really understand why Trfel would be motivated to make the read, and then form an invested defense of it over several subsequent posts, were Trfel himself mafia. It's a weird thing to pick a fight over.
Wrapping this up, Palmar's reads look like they could come from either town or mafia Palmar. He's neither done anything that sells me on his being town nor done anything that I find strongly suspicious.
Questions for Palmar:
- Why did you think Breshke was 100% mafia, and do you stand by your read at this point in time? (i.e. has nothing happened between giving it and now that would make you change your mind?)
- Do you accept the premise that feeling disempowered to affect the game is alignment-neutral? If so, why do you think Tumblewood and sicklucker are mafia for expressing this sentiment? If not, why don't you accept the premise?
- You mentioned "something you can't remember" for Trfel being mafia. Can you try to remember it for us and develop this read? I found your Trfel read had the best argumentation of the group but still wasn't particularly convinced.
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I'll start by confessing that I didn't actually read all of Shapelog's posts at a high level of attention. There's a lot of fluff in them, and while I don't expect or demand that everyone be all-business-all-the-time, it does mean that if you have a lot of off-topic discussion interspersed with your serious posting, I'm probably going to miss some of the latter.
With that said, Shapelog is a player who can't be evaluated solely on post volume or apparent involvedness in the thread -- he's produced very large filters as mafia with spammy posting styles similar to this one. Instead, you have to look at the quality of the content he does discuss amidst his fluff posting.
And while I'm a bit biased, I think it's strong work. He immediately comes to the correct conclusion regarding my setup spec posting, which is to realize that I was deliberately taking away mafia outs to our power roles, and pushed that line of argument with Trfel. Trfel gives a very weak non-answer here:
On February 16 2016 10:18 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2016 10:12 Trfel wrote:On February 16 2016 09:44 Shapelog wrote:
See Trofl you did not answer my question :/... This is why i cannot share my nice logic/reads with you. You posted a question? Oh, I thought it was rhetorical. I obviously disagree. Power roles can play their own roles, they don't need someone to direct them. The point isn't the setup speculation, that's not alignment indicative. I can't see how Eden as town could care so much about his setup speculation and not care about anything else. No, try again. Why would Scum! Eden push pro-miller claim While speculating that a DT is in the game. Like hell (and this is bad i know) but he could be the detective/tracker/watcher? thingy (at least that is what he speculated) and just bread crumb. Then lets get deep. That list was really just him saying the unflavor name of most of the roles and trying to figure out the Radin role. His only speculation is that a DT is in the game and that Millers are aware. Show nested quote +Eden wrote in his List,
I think any miller(s) should probably claim right away to take away the option for the mafia to use claiming miller as counterplay for a cop check. Would mafia push for a removing a out like that just to get cred?
On February 16 2016 10:22 Trfel wrote:
Because that doesn't matter?
Like, Eden's statement is of minimal significance, and even less relevance. [/spoiler]
Quite honestly, on further rereading it looks more like Trfel didn't actually read what I was trying to argue, and just seized upon the opportunity to manufacture a scumread based on the tried-and-false TL Mafia heuristic that "only mafia care about setup speculation."
Anyway this is turning into a Trfel read -- back to Shapelog. Shapelog immediately comes to the correct conclusion and pushes on Trfel a bit for failing to do the same, but does so very fairly and magnanimously -- he's not looking to accuse Trfel or exploit Trfel's misreading the situation to get a scumread, he's looking to hold a sincere conversation about Trfel's read and explain his own angle on the situation. Reads townie to me.
He's also spending quite a bit of time trying to figure out Tumblewood.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 16 2016 22:31 Shapelog wrote:Ok I have Insight on Tumbledore. Going in for the read. + Show Spoiler [Insightful posts] +On February 16 2016 06:04 Tumblewood wrote:
Scumreading Trfel pretty hard right now tbh On February 16 2016 15:46 Tumblewood wrote:
This D1 sucks. Nothing very significant has happened except Trfel and Eden arguing and getting nowhere, except for all that nice town cred people are building for themselves. On February 16 2016 16:16 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2016 15:55 Tictock wrote:
Well, did you get any read off of Trfel and Eden in their exchange?
Who do you think is trying to build themselves towncred?
You and Shape were just on a mafia team together, do you have any insights into his alignment?
Maybe you could try to talk about stuff like that rather than complain that the day is boring. Trfel and Eden are town because mafia are usually afraid to get into a heated argument. I think everyone besides those two who has been active is making little town cred posts without substance. Shape was spammy as all hell last game. Is that just normal though? Maybe. Tictock, what do you think of Trfel and Eden arguing? Ok so this might seem really Meh. In fact it is Meh. But it is very different then Scum!Tumble intro post in the last Newbie. In the last newbie, as my scum partner, he opened up with a big read (note that he threw slug at me). His posts there out were also big posts. He also was like a gopher on groundhog day, he pop his head out, answer points about him being scum, then leave about 60% of the time. Other 40% was him pushing his scum reads. IF he was scum, he would have a scum read and take advantage of the situation between Eden and Trofl. + Show Spoiler [Or Tinfoil] + Slight chance that he is scum and someone like trofl or Etc. is a scum partner. I would feel fine giving Tumble a slight town lean ftm. On February 16 2016 22:49 Shapelog wrote:Actually that last post from him is a tad bit weird tbh. Show nested quote +On February 16 2016 16:16 Tumblewood wrote:On February 16 2016 15:55 Tictock wrote:
Well, did you get any read off of Trfel and Eden in their exchange?
Who do you think is trying to build themselves towncred?
You and Shape were just on a mafia team together, do you have any insights into his alignment?
Maybe you could try to talk about stuff like that rather than complain that the day is boring. Trfel and Eden are town because mafia are usually afraid to get into a heated argument. I think everyone besides those two who has been active is making little town cred posts without substance.Shape was spammy as all hell last game. Is that just normal though? Maybe.Tictock, what do you think of Trfel and Eden arguing? Ok so he answers the question without really giving too much info beside it. Then makes a nice town statement IMO. But then for the last two lines he doges the question. Have I heavily been spamming? No. He could of talked about my TT interactions or even my semi-defense on eden or etc. He could of done more in that department on a read on me. It is like he is avoiding giving me a read for some reason. He redirects the question back to TT, which to be fair. Is legitimately fine (since TT kinda has been delaying that with Soup). But why does he not try to pressure TT more? idk maybe it is a personal play-style of mine to go after people and make their life misbehave. Which i guess would make him town according to last game but still.... @Tumbledore, what is your current read on TT and Why?
It's worth noting that he doesn't really come to a conclusive read on Tumblewood, but I think what he does produce -- a town lean, despite some misgivings about perceived weird posts -- is sensible, and I think that the "I was scumbuddies with X last game, so I'll pay special attention to X for my team in this game" is a very intuitive thing for a townie to do after just getting out of that game in which they were teammates.
I'm fine giving Shapelog a town lean and am pretty confident I wouldn't lynch him today.
Question for Shapelog:
- You've said you would go back and review the interaction between Trfel and me to get a more conclusive read on us. Having now done this (if you haven't, go do this), what is your opinion on Trfel's alignment?
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On February 17 2016 07:17 nooniansoong wrote:
Eden, who do you think we should lynch though?
I'm still working on deciding that. My answer right now is Trfel, as the more I read his attempt to push on me, the more it comes off like mafia trying to pounce on the "setup spec = mafia" heuristic that's popular here instead of a townie sincerely attempting to comprehend what I was doing. Check out the interaction between him and Shapelog that I pointed out for more specifics.
I reserve the right to change this answer though. I don't feel I have a sufficiently thorough understanding of the game to this point to give an answer I'm fully confident in
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goddammit formatting fail
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whatever this shit takes way too long. fuck a filter dive
DO NOT LYNCH:
Shapelog
Tictock
nooniansoong
PROBABLY DON'T LYNCH:
rsoultin (prepared to move into do not lynch territory again, pending further meaningful activity)
Palmar (underwhelming to this point, but has too much potential and not enough actually suspicious activity to be the lynch)
OKAY WITH LYNCHING // HAVE MADE NO REAL IMPRESSION:
Tumblewood
Breshke
The Shining
mderg/scott31337
GlowingBear
DOWN WITH LYNCHING:
Trfel (his case on me looks more like a mafia trying for a gotcha vote than a legitimate townie argument -- notice the interaction I pointed out with Shapelog where, in the face of reasoned concerns with his arguments, he handwaves the point as being 'irrelevant' when it clearly isn't.)
sicklucker (voting me for "claiming VT" when I didn't do that, similarly uncritical application of bad setup spec heuristic from a player I know is capable of better.)
I'm aware that both of my targets are primarily on here for making a case on me, and I don't care. I bring it up because I'm sure some jackass is going to point out that it's OMGUS, and I want to make it clear that it's not -- I'm not down for lynching them because they voted me, I'm down for it because their reasons for doing so were very poor, look like mafia reasons for voting someone, and come from players who I know can do better.
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On February 17 2016 07:58 Trfel wrote:
Eden, nothing I said had anything to do with what you did. It's all about what you DIDN'T do.
I specifically said that setup speculation is not mafia indicative. I stated this several times that this is NOT why I was scumreading you.
I was scumreading you for being separated from the thread and completely ignoring everything else that was going on. This isn't necessarily mafia indicative, but when coupled with how seriously you took the setup talk, to me it seemed extremely suspect. This argument is clear throughout my posts.
Eden's second series of posts showed willingness to interact and involvement in the game, directly contradicting my arguments, causing me to strongly reconsider. Furthermore, my meta had an extremely serious flaw.
It frustrates me greatly when people say that my arguments are things that they clearly aren't when half of my argument is explaining why this isn't what I'm saying in the first place. If you're going to call my argument bad, please actually acknowledge that you understand what my argument is first. Thanks.
Except that at no point was I separated from the thread? I led off with setup posting and immediately started doing other things (townreading rsoultin, talking to Tictock) as they came up. This has been demonstrably and flagrantly false from the outset.
You basically said that I was scum for talking about setup spec at the alleged expense of other things. Since I was talking about other things, that alleged expense was not actually an expense, and your argument becomes "Eden is scum for talking about setup spec." When someone calls you out on how my setup spec was pro-town you handwave it as irrelevant and continue pushing this line of argument.
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On February 17 2016 08:00 Trfel wrote:
I am capable of understanding the arguments for simple things like "the miller should claim", thank you very much. It's just not alignment indicative in and of itself.
So it's not alignment indicative for me to push a line of argument that only helps town? If I'm mafia and doing it then I'm reducing my own team's outs to redchecks to get towncred when I can do other things to get towncred without reducing those outs. It's a strictly worse line of play than several other ones, like simply being fake-afk until real stuff happens that I can talk about.
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On February 17 2016 08:12 Palmar wrote:
It's unfortunate that I don't want to post right now.
I bet that's not very helpful of me.
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGTTu3qUYAAEFVC.jpg:large)
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@Trfel -- my reasons aren't great either lol
His filter is just full of posts that I nodded my head to, like this one:
On February 16 2016 15:55 Tictock wrote:
Well, did you get any read off of Trfel and Eden in their exchange?
Who do you think is trying to build themselves towncred?
You and Shape were just on a mafia team together, do you have any insights into his alignment?
Maybe you could try to talk about stuff like that rather than complain that the day is boring.
I'll save you the one where he talked about us :p
But it's just stuff like that. He's been on the ball with what he's chosen to respond to this game. This early on I'm affirmatively on board with not killing him (that is, "I don't want to kill him because of X things he's done," as opposed to negatively on board with not killing, as I am with Palmar, for instance).
I don't think he's some lock town or anything. He's not outside what I would guess is his range for mafia behavior, but he's certainly done enough for me not to kill him atm.
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I forgot that this game ends at 3pm my time. Gonna be working and sleeping basically the whole way until then. Fortunately(?) I bus tomorrow instead of wait -- so while I'm making less money I might be able to check in more regularly during the shift (which is to say "might be able to check in during the shift").
On a brief further review I feel like I'm just being pigheaded and wrong about Trfel. I realize that's a bit quick to conclude, but tbh this feels exactly like the game we just played where I found myself arguing with him a lot about stuff that didn't really matter. It was really inefficient use of time and generally just wasteful, and this is feeling that way too.
Plus he's said some stuff unrelated to me that makes sense, like his recent posts about scott. And I'm pretty sure if I just ignore his posts about my early play, about which I am incorrigibly biased, he's gotta just be lock town, right? Constant activity, questions that are generally on-point, unquestionable demonstrated investment in the game. It's 2am so fuck you if you expect me to go find quotes to prove this, I'm pretty sure these are all obvious.
I'm kinda ready to cop out and lynch sicklucker or someone who's not doing anything. Won't lynch Trfel, Tictock, rsoultin, nooniansoong today. Will maybe try to find reasons to add people to this list.
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Don't like Shining's reads now that I bothered to read the larger post.
Not with the conclusions -- nobody is screaming lock-scum to me either -- but it felt like he came to null/null-ish conclusions about several players despite posting enough info to come to a firmer conclusion.
Like comparing his reads to mine, since we both ended up not having a lot of clear suspects, I make it clear what I find suspicious or not suspicious about people, and what I find validating or not validating about people. People don't do scummy and townie things, or at least, I don't think they have yet in this game. Look at this...
Tictock - I kinda liked TT for town at the beginning tbh, but his recent posting worried me and made me backtrack. His early posts were short but the tone seemed pretty relaxed from the jokes with Shapelog, while also mixing some good posts, mainly the one about Trfel and his TR on him. I'm still working on my Trfel read due to how he's treating me, but I will say I really liked TT's Eden read and see pretty much what he sees. His GB read seemed pretty accurate, too, I've also played with a lackadaiscal, non-caring GB town multiple times before which has ended in GB being prime lynchbait. I could probably see where he's coming from, though I wish GB would actually play. What I don't like is TT immediately calling his GB read shit because of a one-liner from Kush in which Kush didn't even explain WHY that TR was bad. Also a red flag is the fact that I can't really find where or who TT is scumreading. The closest thing is a list of people that need to post more, myself included. I feel like TT would be more confident and focused on finding scum after his last good performance. The line "I don't have any strong scumreads but I'm pretty confident we'll hit scum" feels off. Slight scumread here, since imo scum is a lot better at giving townreads as opposed to fabricating scumreads.
Basically, he lists a lot of reasons to like Tictock. He likes Tictock's town reads, and maybe only has real issues with how Tictock came to the GB read. But then he says that because Tictock doesn't have clear scumreads, that Tictock is a scum lean? I don't get how a guy can be considered to be pretty townie based off of having a lot of reasonable townreads, but then can end up being net-scummy due to not having clear scumreads.
It'd seem to me that you would conclude that the unclear scum reads is a big red flag, mafia can just make up reasons to townread people (especially if you agree with those reads and think the people being townread are actually town, then they're just saying correct things which is easy to do), and so the townreads don't mean anything and he's clear scum.
Or, you would say that the townreads are a great reason to townread him early, because they make sense and show that he's engaged with the game. At that point, it would be more reasonable to assume that a relative lack of scumreads is the byproduct of an early game without anybody doing anything obviously suspicious, and is NAI.
But surely you can't just say both things and call it virtually a wash (slight scum lean)? If either of them didn't matter you would conclude the other one is important and read Tictock accordingly. If both didn't matter then you would just not have a read. And they're not really constructed in a way that you can think both do matter -- since both of them are good reasons to read someone a certain way, and both lead to divergent conclusions, it stands to reason that one of them is wrong and thus shouldn't matter, and that, coming to this realization, you would review the player and decide which one matters.
I felt several of his reads that conclude null/null-ish have similar issues: he describes various behaviors by the player that look like they would be alignment-indicative, but they conclude opposite things, so instead of digging into the players in more depth and detail to resolve the divergent conclusions, he just calls them "null" overall even though they shouldn't be null. He's cited enough behaviors to come to some conclusion about a player, but then manages not to do so.
Coupled with the posting style -- few, longer posts, with minimal proactive interaction -- I'm actually inclined to think this guy could be a good lynch.
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Sorry for doubleposting and for using way too many words, it's hard formulating exactly what I'm not liking about The Shining's post.
I guess the best way to put it is that if you have some things that make someone seem so townie -- see the first half or so of the paragraph he writes on Tictock -- but then have some things that make that same someone seem so scummy -- see the latter half and the fact that despite the former half being full of great reasons to townread Tictock, he still concludes it was incorrect -- then you have to conclude your read on one half of those things is wrong. People don't do simultaneously very townie and very scummy things. They maybe do one or the other, but never both.
That The Shining concludes that multiple people are doing both is concerning to me.
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EPT
