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On February 10 2016 06:57 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2016 06:56 NocturneMage wrote:On February 10 2016 06:53 boxerfred wrote:On February 10 2016 06:52 Rels wrote:
All these dumbtells are unbelievable. BF CANNOT make the same mistake he made 24 hours ago. I actually didn't. 24 hours ago, I was sold on the idea of a scum vig. Now, I'm thinking that there's a town vig in, too. I'm actually not that great at balance for more than 13 players, so I'm not about to point fingers. That said....there's enough kp flying around as it is. There's no town vig. And it's a scum vig because Palmar should have been shot night 1. The fact he wasn't indicates there was a scum vig - plus, no one claimed the shot. Typically, when there's an errant shot like that the town vig usually claims. Here there was no claim, so you can assume it's a scum vig. you do not claim ever with that BS starkiller thing.
I am honestly going to rage at HTS if we lose because of that thing.
Like I really want to flame her because it's HTS but I would probably get modkilled because it's HTS.
And we obviously can't afford modkills lol.
Back on topic though - I honestly think boxerfred is town.
Rels I honestly think you are tunnelling him. Have you played with him before? Were you in Firefly?
There's just no way I would lynch him before Koshi/VA/Chez/MoosyDoosy.
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On February 10 2016 07:11 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2016 05:10 NocturneMage wrote:Nooniansoong, I just saw your Moosy read. + Show Spoiler [Your Moosy read] +On February 09 2016 23:20 nooniansoong wrote:[*] Chezinu- doesn't have the good reads on people that I would expect
- his reasoning on palmar is convenient for scum
[*] MoosyDoosy- There's nothing surprising about the order of his list but in the explanations he is second guessing himself on almost every read. His read on me is very superficial-- I had a scummy mindset. I'd say yes, but I put it out there blatantly which makes more sense to read as null.
On February 09 2016 08:42 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Town Circle
- Rels town from D2 although I had my suspicion earlier so I would not be surprised if he is unexpectedly Mafia. But I will go logic > feel for now.
- marv is active lol
- NM is doing his convoluted way of collecting reads
lean on green
- darthfoley looks good, tbh don't remember him much, townread him early and forgot about him. may look into later.
- disformation looks like his waffle king town but i am never sure about him. I will check his mafia game I think.
Lol wtf idek
- Chezinu is an enigma, but he plays games so that is cool.
- Onegu is an enigma, but he does not play games so he is lower than Chezinu.
People to Look Into:
- boxerfred was bad EoD and his anger was definitely misplaced. Some of his reads were also very bad.
- noon had some scummy posts from a scum mindset which I'm surprised no one seemed to have mentioned much.
- I scumread him for D1 stuff but idk if he looks better now. Will have to look into again.
- tbh i don't really know how I feel about Koshi but it looks like everyone is scum reading him so I will look into him again. - nothing I can point to as particularly townie
Do you see a pattern here? Day 1 reads+ Show Spoiler +(Regarding townreading ritoky versus Damdred) On February 05 2016 15:11 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I would honestly not take you ritoky. As adorable as you are, I prefer a Damdred leap of faith over you right now. Especially right now. On February 05 2016 15:11 NocturneMage wrote:
Why? On February 05 2016 15:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
something about reading disfo, and ritoky by extension, his push onto someone, and something else i forget. On February 07 2016 02:55 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Rels - I have a soul read situation with him that he knows as well. Every time in the past that I've been wary of him he's turned out to be Mafia. Every time I town read him immediately, he has been town. It has to do with how he sets himself up in the game. His opening made me wary. But I do agree with a lot of what he's been saying which is shit for me because logic > feelings from my experience in Mafia. Rels, I'm going to keep off of you for now, but that's on the basis you keep shitting townie rainbows.
ritoky & disfo - Bear with me, things are foggy because I read quickly to catch up and play D2. There was a situation where ritoky pushed disfo and disfo made a shit case. I think NM and/or Palmar was implicated somewhere which should be interesting. On February 08 2016 06:45 NocturneMage wrote:
phoneposting
So what about it? What are your thoughts on Rels now? What is this heuristic/tell you are using on Rels for? On February 08 2016 07:09 MoosyDoosy wrote:
mMmmm i currently have no thoughts on Rels. This day is enough about Palmar that Rels has dropped off and there’s not enough for me to read him. This waits until N3/D3 where things should pick up.
mMmmm...I'm interested in what you're aiming for D2 in general. Who are you looking into? What exactly are you trying to question? On February 08 2016 07:17 NocturneMage wrote:
I don't find this believable or you haven't read the thread. Rels posted quite a bit earlier on Koshi and he pushed Koshi I believe. That's not the definition of falling off. He posted a massive case. On February 08 2016 07:22 MoosyDoosy wrote:
bruh, do you seriously expect my thought process to make sense? Along with another point raised earlier to disformation about Moosy dodging questions: + Show Spoiler [addressing the question dodging of Moosy] +On February 09 2016 03:02 NocturneMage wrote:
at disformation
between the two solo voters, MoosyDoosy is more likely mafia than Onegu. it isn't super likely a scumteam would have 2/4 off wagon, even so look at other attributes.
onegu there is absolutely zero indicative information either way.
MoosyDoosy could be scum because:
(1) repeated question dodging/not giving reads when requested (at least 3 occasions I've counted) - has bailed on me twice when questions have been asked directly of him, once day 1 and once early day 2
(2) reasons for scumreading/not trusting ritoky day 1 in context were extremely murky, vague and evasive
(3) even if Rels verified that MD's meta read on him was correct, he also townread me a bit too easily.
namely that I was town for being illogical/convoluted, whereas disformation and Rels scumread me for the exact same thing.
pretty sure now that read was contrived.
(4) Day 2 he stated that Rels' activity dropped off when the opposite was true - he was pushing Koshi. Instead of giving a read on Rels, Moosy gave another evasive answer (post 1854)
(5) bottom of page 95, I pressed him for a read on Rels AGAIN. He gave another deflective answer AGAIN. (post 1898) Nothing after that after I had to go to bed.
his "dumbtelling" is very easy to fake as mafia, and it's been a known fact since Fullmetal.
I would use other criteria (less fake-able) to ensure he's town if he somehow is.
I will expand on these points with quotes when I'm back on a laptop if I need to but references should be obvious. Are we possibly seeing a pattern here? All in all, if you read Moosy's entire filter, he's not committing to much of anything in terms of scumreads (except the obvious town ones). These points together? Alongside the solo vote, Moosy has a decent shot of being scum. Thoughts? Meh, I mean. My alignment is fairly obvious but if you read it that way. You should also revisit that last quote block. :p I didn't take the time to refute it, but a lot of it was incorrect.
Actually, no it wasn't. All of the points had references, some can doubt the subjectivity of number 3 but the rest of the points it is pretty clear if you read the filter and read the thread.
You might also consider addressing Nooniansoong's case against you too. He brought up some original points against you I think that I didn't consider when I first read them.
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On February 10 2016 07:15 disformation wrote:
btw where is LS?
IIRC from Dark Tournament he has school or is at uni. I think he might be at class. NAI.
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Pretty Damn Sure They Are Town - in no particular order
marvellosity - duh
Rels - duh
disformation - duh
Nooniansoong (same reasons cited by Marv, Koshi pushing hard for his lynch/similar scumreads as myself plus rationale to arrive at them)
Pretty Sure He's Town (Only Lynch in a 2:1 lylo situation)
darthfoley - wrong side of the Day 1 lynch, but pretty invested day 1, pretty substantial arguments days 1 and 3
Give Him More Time To Show Himself as Town
LightningStrike - From experience with him in Dark Tournament, I found his town playstyle very scummy, I remember Rels and a few others correcting me on how to read him. I want to see him make more substantial reads on finding the two remaining mafia between Chez/BF/VA/Moosy. That should give you an answer I think.
Gut Call - Town
boxerfred - There's a few tells on his end and there's a few peripheral things I'm seeing. Things I don't like about him - the self-meta, the vote day 1. (If Palmar had flipped vig, he'd look significantly worse I would say.) For someone who might struggle as town, his response to me regarding Moosy's vote makes sense. Having mislynched him in Firefly, I can see the reasons his towngame might not be great if he's afk; in Firefly boxerfred was scumreading me all game for really dumb things, so it's very believable he's not focusing on the right things as town. Peripheral things - he's on a LOT of people's scumlists and most concerningly, he's on the scumlist of my two top scumreads (Koshi aside).
Now I realise the last is unflipped association, but my remaining top scumreads have nothing townie about them - and I would lynch them any day above boxerfred.
God Help Us All
Chezinu - The two things Chezinu has going for him if I had to get ANYTHING from his filter - ignoring meta is that (1) he's not playing to survive - that "don't give a fuck" attitude and (2) he's on too many scumlists, particularly my scumreads. Even then I've been very frustrated with his Day 1 vote for God knows what reason and not making any sense with any of his reads, why he says certain reads are "interesting"
MoosyDoosy - Get Your Red Flags Up - Probable Scum
(1) Voting Analysis - Solo vote/off wagon
(2) Repeated question dodging
(3) Point taken from Nooniansoong - constant second guessing of his reads
99% Scum - Koshi - LYNCH HIM WITH FIRE DAY 4
(1) Voting Analysis - Made the vote to save flipped scum Palmar before Damdred switched again
(2) Directionless reads on DF/Damdred/ritoky Day 1
(3) No followup on a scumread on me Day 1
(4) General scumclaim conversation with marvellosity Day 2 as Palmar was getting autolynched
(5) Burnt out quip - in of itself it's not alignment indicative but taken with everything else it is
1000% SCUM - VAYNE AUTHORITY - LYNCH HIM WITH FIRE DAY 3
(1) Voting Analysis - Early vote on Palmar for towncred, lack of substantiation or investment in the lynch, points on Palmar were made (a) unrelated to the key arguments for this game and well after I meta-cased him.
(2) Overall lack of direction/reads Days 1 and 2 - in particular you need to really read his filter. Look for lack of followup on me, DF, disformation and one other player.
(3) Point from marvellosity - "post-hoc" explanation for reaction test.
(4) Playing for survival/cruising on his town meta - just look at his day 2/night 2 responses to me - "this is my town meta". Both Nooniansoong and ritoky have called him on reasons he's mafia.
(5) The "how did he know I was a good player" issue? I've never played with him. How would he know?
(6) The Intangible - Finally, you've just got to trust me with this read.
IF I DIE THIS NIGHT PHASE, VA IS CONFIRMED MAFIA.
I AM NOT INSANE. THERE IS A REASON I AM SAYING THIS.
ANYONE WHO CAN THINK A MODICUM OUTSIDE THE BOX SHOULD REALISE WHY I'VE BEEN PUSHING HIM HARD. I HAVEN'T STOPPED AFTER DAY 1.
YES KOSHI IS MAFIA.
BUT PLEASE LYNCH VAYNE AUTHORITY BEFORE KOSHI. IF I DIE, THAT SHOULD BE EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW.
DO NOT LET HIM TALK YOU OUT OF IT. JUST DO IT!!!!!!!!
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On February 16 2016 10:09 LightningStrike wrote:
Also NM for MVP of the game he pretty much nailed the entire team Day 1.
nah, cheers for the sentiment, but the town collectively played well, I think most of the town worked fine together, I mean towards the end of day 1 after I read a bunch of filters, I had reasons to think some people were mafia but there was no way I could get certain people lynched day 1.
my day 1 was 50% inactive because of real life and two of my scumreads I couldn't interact with, I just couldn't be in the thread at the same time they were so it was really hard for me to actually illustrate why they were mafia.
and yeah LS, I just have a rough time reading you but I was explained after Dark Tournament on how to appropriately read you. like in Dark Tournament I felt you were posting just to post, but you seem to be more townie when you interact with others. it's hard to articulate properly but I think I know what to look for now with you.
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wait, you are apparently the one who threw Himalayas, right?
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agreed with the disformation comments - I thought you really stepped it up late game and you were pretty obviously town early on, even if you tunnelled the shit out of me day 1. several others in day 3 and after also showed some fairly obvious town tells.
chezinu....I don't know I don't really understand his playstyle, until he started breadcrumbing his checks, he was difficult to read.
so disformation, keep it up, hopefully we'll roll another one as town together.
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LS - Rels saved marv night 1, disformation night 2, chez night 3
I had trouble deciding n1 between va and koshi to track that night. I switched 3-4 times. 2259 I settle on va.
looks like I'd have gotten a result on koshi too reading the mafia qt, though. damn. afterwards it was you, but regardless it'd have been a smattering of you/md/boxerfred/chez depending on how I felt.
regardless even as vt, I'd have been pushing both va and koshi pretty hard.
chez from his checks checked disformation night 1, then he was roleblocked either night 2 or night 3 but the night he wasn't roleblocked he checked disformation. I can't tell from his posts. I don't understand chez-speak lol.
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On February 16 2016 10:49 ritoky wrote:naw VA or NM was always scum cuz of how they was fighting early on, wasn't town v town kinda fighting, i just thought it was NM before VA cuz he was defending me so hard which creeped me out 
didn't realise that was purely scummy...I've seen town try and defend someone they were absolutely sure of too.
someone else pointed out (forget whether it was in obs or the thread) that va dropped his scumread on me at odd times. really odd times. and then some of us saw how a decent chunk of his pushes weren't going anywhere, even Noon had a nice case on him end of day 2 I think.
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I meant you and bf, he had you listed above boxerfred, so I interpreted that as you were day 1 and boxerfred was after.
damn it's late. gonna turn in. ggs again.
and hts, watch it with the kp plz
(kidding, I'm aware it's not easy to host, just giving her shit)
seriously though, thanks hosts as usual.
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On February 16 2016 11:18 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2016 11:10 NocturneMage wrote:I meant you and bf, he had you listed above boxerfred, so I interpreted that as you were day 1 and boxerfred was after. damn it's late. gonna turn in. ggs again. and hts, watch it with the kp plz (kidding, I'm aware it's not easy to host, just giving her shit) seriously though, thanks hosts as usual. Oh, btw b4 I forget: you should be a bit careful about tilting. Scum would have probably shot you either way, but I felt the post where you were really raging at HtS about the strong arm shot was fairly blue indicative. I remember you went at Trfel super hard in DT, too. Just step back a bit. I know it is easier said then done, but I don't think that stuff is good for your play.
Points taken. Thanks. Dark Tournament there was specific language that Trfel used that made me think he was out to get me, I think had I approached it a different way I might have had a different outcome.
Admittedly I'd have raged at HTS even as VT and the mafia actually yolo shot me from their QT, still not a great post considering others commented on balance and I know dick all on that. Bah. I will admit I get kinda get a bit invested in these games as both alignments I'll admit but I'll do my best to try and not come off as a dick next time. I know it's a turnoff for some.
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Also random question, has anyone heard from Moosy? Did he seriously just afk and not tell anyone? Or did something actually happen to him? Hopefully not another situation like Eversince in Fullmetal.
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EPT
