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On February 10 2016 00:03 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2016 23:44 NocturneMage wrote:On February 09 2016 23:37 boxerfred wrote:On February 06 2016 01:42 VayneAuthority wrote:
I will warn you that BF is a trap player. I don't know what to make of him yet. On paper it makes zero sense and looks scummy but surely he would realize that right? Now when we look at the motivation for why he would want to post this, all I could think of is kush being his mafia buddy. He wants you to know that he does support the lynch of kush but thats the extent of it. so if you believe in a kush/bf team then go for it Would scum say such things D1? Dunno boxerfred, the second sentence is what you call hedging, which is mafia indicative. "I don't know what to make of him yet." is a noncommittal statement - not wanting to take sides. Granted in that quote alone, there is a possible town motivation, that he can be town being unsure, but mafia can say things like this and wait to see where thread sentiment goes. I think interpreting "dunno" as hedging is wrong here. I ask a question to bring attention to something. Maybe I should've said "I'm not too sure what to make of that quote so please give me your thoughts"? To the VA post itself: while the thought process of that quote appears rather towny to me, the last sentence in it ("if you believe... go for it") would be hedging, right? So this post becomes scum indicative. Do you think VA's post is scum indicative, NM?
That sentence, yes, because it's a leading statement. He's not taking the stance himself, he's asking (whoever) to do it.
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last point before I really bail - both disformation and Noon have made points on boxerfred's play being sloppy as town I believe.
I pointed out a flaw in his VCA regarding Moosy that I felt might have been "sloppy" as they said.
boxerfred's answer to my question on MoosyDoosy - him coming to a more reformed and believeable view might be indicative of this. He considered both angles.
so it's quite possible boxerfred is town.
from before, day 1 interactions between him and ritoky as I said before were in my eyes town on town.
food for thought. still haven't finished his filter though.
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On February 10 2016 04:26 boxerfred wrote:
By the way, everyone's so sure on Koshi and Chez, yet I am the only person to actually have voted? Are you guys unsure suddenly or what?
it's night phase.
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On February 10 2016 04:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Also, that's a very strange reason to townread someone. If you think Koshi is scum then both scum switching to save Palmar would have looked very strange, especially as JAT flipped town. So definitely one scum wouldn't have switched while Koshi worked to save Palmar's ass. Unless you really think mafia would be so dumb as to all switch to save Palmar.
So Moosy, what do you think of boxerfred's response to me, now that you've read it?
(still reading)
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On February 10 2016 04:31 boxerfred wrote:
What the fuck
I feel like I messed up the cycles completely. 24 night 48 day, right? I thought this would be first 24h of day 4?
This is night 2, ends tonight midnight CET, then begins 48h day 3.
boxerfred, what do you think about my post on page 117 (post 2333). You asked for it.
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boxerfred, next question of you - in the event it was already asked, just re-quote it for me please.
In the event Chezinu got modkilled, whom would you lynch next and why? (Ignore Koshi for obvious reasons)
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Nooniansoong, I just saw your Moosy read.
+ Show Spoiler [Your Moosy read] +On February 09 2016 23:20 nooniansoong wrote:[*] Chezinu- doesn't have the good reads on people that I would expect
- his reasoning on palmar is convenient for scum
[*] MoosyDoosy- There's nothing surprising about the order of his list but in the explanations he is second guessing himself on almost every read. His read on me is very superficial-- I had a scummy mindset. I'd say yes, but I put it out there blatantly which makes more sense to read as null.
On February 09 2016 08:42 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Town Circle
- Rels town from D2 although I had my suspicion earlier so I would not be surprised if he is unexpectedly Mafia. But I will go logic > feel for now.
- marv is active lol
- NM is doing his convoluted way of collecting reads
lean on green
- darthfoley looks good, tbh don't remember him much, townread him early and forgot about him. may look into later.
- disformation looks like his waffle king town but i am never sure about him. I will check his mafia game I think.
Lol wtf idek
- Chezinu is an enigma, but he plays games so that is cool.
- Onegu is an enigma, but he does not play games so he is lower than Chezinu.
People to Look Into:
- boxerfred was bad EoD and his anger was definitely misplaced. Some of his reads were also very bad.
- noon had some scummy posts from a scum mindset which I'm surprised no one seemed to have mentioned much.
- I scumread him for D1 stuff but idk if he looks better now. Will have to look into again.
- tbh i don't really know how I feel about Koshi but it looks like everyone is scum reading him so I will look into him again. - nothing I can point to as particularly townie
Do you see a pattern here?
Day 1 reads
+ Show Spoiler +(Regarding townreading ritoky versus Damdred) On February 05 2016 15:11 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I would honestly not take you ritoky. As adorable as you are, I prefer a Damdred leap of faith over you right now. Especially right now. On February 05 2016 15:11 NocturneMage wrote:
Why? On February 05 2016 15:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
something about reading disfo, and ritoky by extension, his push onto someone, and something else i forget. On February 07 2016 02:55 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Rels - I have a soul read situation with him that he knows as well. Every time in the past that I've been wary of him he's turned out to be Mafia. Every time I town read him immediately, he has been town. It has to do with how he sets himself up in the game. His opening made me wary. But I do agree with a lot of what he's been saying which is shit for me because logic > feelings from my experience in Mafia. Rels, I'm going to keep off of you for now, but that's on the basis you keep shitting townie rainbows.
ritoky & disfo - Bear with me, things are foggy because I read quickly to catch up and play D2. There was a situation where ritoky pushed disfo and disfo made a shit case. I think NM and/or Palmar was implicated somewhere which should be interesting.
Day 2
+ Show Spoiler [Moosy Day 2 reads] +On February 08 2016 06:45 NocturneMage wrote:
phoneposting
So what about it? What are your thoughts on Rels now? What is this heuristic/tell you are using on Rels for? On February 08 2016 07:09 MoosyDoosy wrote:
mMmmm i currently have no thoughts on Rels. This day is enough about Palmar that Rels has dropped off and there’s not enough for me to read him. This waits until N3/D3 where things should pick up.
mMmmm...I'm interested in what you're aiming for D2 in general. Who are you looking into? What exactly are you trying to question? On February 08 2016 07:17 NocturneMage wrote:
I don't find this believable or you haven't read the thread. Rels posted quite a bit earlier on Koshi and he pushed Koshi I believe. That's not the definition of falling off. He posted a massive case. On February 08 2016 07:22 MoosyDoosy wrote:
bruh, do you seriously expect my thought process to make sense?
Along with another point raised earlier to disformation about Moosy dodging questions:
+ Show Spoiler [addressing the question dodging of Moosy] +On February 09 2016 03:02 NocturneMage wrote:
at disformation
between the two solo voters, MoosyDoosy is more likely mafia than Onegu. it isn't super likely a scumteam would have 2/4 off wagon, even so look at other attributes.
onegu there is absolutely zero indicative information either way.
MoosyDoosy could be scum because:
(1) repeated question dodging/not giving reads when requested (at least 3 occasions I've counted) - has bailed on me twice when questions have been asked directly of him, once day 1 and once early day 2
(2) reasons for scumreading/not trusting ritoky day 1 in context were extremely murky, vague and evasive
(3) even if Rels verified that MD's meta read on him was correct, he also townread me a bit too easily.
namely that I was town for being illogical/convoluted, whereas disformation and Rels scumread me for the exact same thing.
pretty sure now that read was contrived.
(4) Day 2 he stated that Rels' activity dropped off when the opposite was true - he was pushing Koshi. Instead of giving a read on Rels, Moosy gave another evasive answer (post 1854)
(5) bottom of page 95, I pressed him for a read on Rels AGAIN. He gave another deflective answer AGAIN. (post 1898) Nothing after that after I had to go to bed.
his "dumbtelling" is very easy to fake as mafia, and it's been a known fact since Fullmetal.
I would use other criteria (less fake-able) to ensure he's town if he somehow is.
I will expand on these points with quotes when I'm back on a laptop if I need to but references should be obvious.
Are we possibly seeing a pattern here? All in all, if you read Moosy's entire filter, he's not committing to much of anything in terms of scumreads (except the obvious town ones).
These points together? Alongside the solo vote, Moosy has a decent shot of being scum. Thoughts?
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Noon, can you also elaborate on what Chez "should" be doing that is missing?
As in, when he DOES make reads, how does he actually do it? You said day 1 he talks in code or by theme or whatever it was and he was sort of doing it day 1? Also is he a low-volume poster? Does he interact with people and then make reads?
I know this sounds dumb but given the sheer difficulty I've had trying to figure out the damn filter, I'm probably going to need some help here.
My big issue is that there are three mafia left here, Koshi, almost certainly one of them, and I have decent reason to scumread both Moosy and VayneAuthority.
boxerfred is possible, the day 1 vote is yuck, but I'm seeing town tells scattered throughout as I read his filter. I wouldn't lynch him before Koshi or VA at this moment.
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I need to AFK but I'll be back.
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Hey VA, are you going to address why Noon thinks you are scum?
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On February 10 2016 05:25 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2016 05:10 NocturneMage wrote:Nooniansoong, I just saw your Moosy read. + Show Spoiler [Your Moosy read] +On February 09 2016 23:20 nooniansoong wrote:[*] Chezinu- doesn't have the good reads on people that I would expect
- his reasoning on palmar is convenient for scum
[*] MoosyDoosy- There's nothing surprising about the order of his list but in the explanations he is second guessing himself on almost every read. His read on me is very superficial-- I had a scummy mindset. I'd say yes, but I put it out there blatantly which makes more sense to read as null.
On February 09 2016 08:42 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Town Circle
- Rels town from D2 although I had my suspicion earlier so I would not be surprised if he is unexpectedly Mafia. But I will go logic > feel for now.
- marv is active lol
- NM is doing his convoluted way of collecting reads
lean on green
- darthfoley looks good, tbh don't remember him much, townread him early and forgot about him. may look into later.
- disformation looks like his waffle king town but i am never sure about him. I will check his mafia game I think.
Lol wtf idek
- Chezinu is an enigma, but he plays games so that is cool.
- Onegu is an enigma, but he does not play games so he is lower than Chezinu.
People to Look Into:
- boxerfred was bad EoD and his anger was definitely misplaced. Some of his reads were also very bad.
- noon had some scummy posts from a scum mindset which I'm surprised no one seemed to have mentioned much.
- I scumread him for D1 stuff but idk if he looks better now. Will have to look into again.
- tbh i don't really know how I feel about Koshi but it looks like everyone is scum reading him so I will look into him again. - nothing I can point to as particularly townie
Do you see a pattern here? Day 1 reads+ Show Spoiler +(Regarding townreading ritoky versus Damdred) On February 05 2016 15:11 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I would honestly not take you ritoky. As adorable as you are, I prefer a Damdred leap of faith over you right now. Especially right now. On February 05 2016 15:11 NocturneMage wrote:
Why? On February 05 2016 15:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
something about reading disfo, and ritoky by extension, his push onto someone, and something else i forget. On February 07 2016 02:55 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Rels - I have a soul read situation with him that he knows as well. Every time in the past that I've been wary of him he's turned out to be Mafia. Every time I town read him immediately, he has been town. It has to do with how he sets himself up in the game. His opening made me wary. But I do agree with a lot of what he's been saying which is shit for me because logic > feelings from my experience in Mafia. Rels, I'm going to keep off of you for now, but that's on the basis you keep shitting townie rainbows.
ritoky & disfo - Bear with me, things are foggy because I read quickly to catch up and play D2. There was a situation where ritoky pushed disfo and disfo made a shit case. I think NM and/or Palmar was implicated somewhere which should be interesting. On February 08 2016 06:45 NocturneMage wrote:
phoneposting
So what about it? What are your thoughts on Rels now? What is this heuristic/tell you are using on Rels for? On February 08 2016 07:09 MoosyDoosy wrote:
mMmmm i currently have no thoughts on Rels. This day is enough about Palmar that Rels has dropped off and there’s not enough for me to read him. This waits until N3/D3 where things should pick up.
mMmmm...I'm interested in what you're aiming for D2 in general. Who are you looking into? What exactly are you trying to question? On February 08 2016 07:17 NocturneMage wrote:
I don't find this believable or you haven't read the thread. Rels posted quite a bit earlier on Koshi and he pushed Koshi I believe. That's not the definition of falling off. He posted a massive case. On February 08 2016 07:22 MoosyDoosy wrote:
bruh, do you seriously expect my thought process to make sense? Along with another point raised earlier to disformation about Moosy dodging questions: + Show Spoiler [addressing the question dodging of Moosy] +On February 09 2016 03:02 NocturneMage wrote:
at disformation
between the two solo voters, MoosyDoosy is more likely mafia than Onegu. it isn't super likely a scumteam would have 2/4 off wagon, even so look at other attributes.
onegu there is absolutely zero indicative information either way.
MoosyDoosy could be scum because:
(1) repeated question dodging/not giving reads when requested (at least 3 occasions I've counted) - has bailed on me twice when questions have been asked directly of him, once day 1 and once early day 2
(2) reasons for scumreading/not trusting ritoky day 1 in context were extremely murky, vague and evasive
(3) even if Rels verified that MD's meta read on him was correct, he also townread me a bit too easily.
namely that I was town for being illogical/convoluted, whereas disformation and Rels scumread me for the exact same thing.
pretty sure now that read was contrived.
(4) Day 2 he stated that Rels' activity dropped off when the opposite was true - he was pushing Koshi. Instead of giving a read on Rels, Moosy gave another evasive answer (post 1854)
(5) bottom of page 95, I pressed him for a read on Rels AGAIN. He gave another deflective answer AGAIN. (post 1898) Nothing after that after I had to go to bed.
his "dumbtelling" is very easy to fake as mafia, and it's been a known fact since Fullmetal.
I would use other criteria (less fake-able) to ensure he's town if he somehow is.
I will expand on these points with quotes when I'm back on a laptop if I need to but references should be obvious. Are we possibly seeing a pattern here? All in all, if you read Moosy's entire filter, he's not committing to much of anything in terms of scumreads (except the obvious town ones). These points together? Alongside the solo vote, Moosy has a decent shot of being scum. Thoughts? Not sure which pattern you mean, besides him not given good reads/cases and generally being a bit dodgy? But yeah that is probably enough to give him a fair chance at being scum. xD Also skimmed over his filter and it wasn't hot at all.
That was pretty much the gist of my argument.
Especially when you compare that to his filters - in terms of sheer quality of reads - from Fullmetal and Drams and you should have a much better idea of what I'm talking about.
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phoneposting as I skim
On February 10 2016 06:10 Rels wrote:
Oh no we're 9-3. 8-3 tomorrow, so 2 mislynches, unless the anti blue stuff hit, then we need one KP-free night to keep the 2 mislynches.
Reminder: We can no-lynch this game. Does that change anything?
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On February 10 2016 06:33 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2016 06:32 NocturneMage wrote:phoneposting as I skim On February 10 2016 06:10 Rels wrote:
Oh no we're 9-3. 8-3 tomorrow, so 2 mislynches, unless the anti blue stuff hit, then we need one KP-free night to keep the 2 mislynches. Reminder: We can no-lynch this game. Does that change anything? i think we lose a lynch if we no-lynch
I'm writing this out - let's assume a worst case scenario. Someone gets obliterated tonight.
9:3 NK and cannon
7:3 mislynch
6:3 nightkill
5:3 mylo - take your no lynch here???????
5:3 nightkill
4:3 lylo
I'm doing this right? Pretty sure I am. I mean if you no lynch at 5:3 you still have another shot at figuring shit out anyways because mafia HAVE to shoot?
Am I derping again?
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On February 10 2016 06:44 Rels wrote:
Meh I see what everything is saying in VA's filter. The thing is, he voted Palmar, his GF if he's scum. With minimal explanation too, and Palmar was lynched until the last second. He could have switched anytime if he wanted to.
The thing I don't like the most about him is the named VT plan, it's (1) bad and (2) he changed his story about it. But him voting Palmar is much stronger than that.
I wish I could have been clearer about this the first time around I tried to explain.
I am relieved more people are seeing and understanding this. I really do believe VA is mafia.
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On February 10 2016 06:45 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2016 06:44 Rels wrote:
Meh I see what everything is saying in VA's filter. The thing is, he voted Palmar, his GF if he's scum. With minimal explanation too, and Palmar was lynched until the last second. He could have switched anytime if he wanted to.
The thing I don't like the most about him is the named VT plan, it's (1) bad and (2) he changed his story about it. But him voting Palmar is much stronger than that. on the other hand, VA would be 100% dead at this point if he had switched off late in the day.
He wasn't all that great day 1 when you look at the grand scheme of things and Noon/myself/ritoky had pointed out varying reasons why. The mafia motivation to bus is to gain cred.
Context/timing of the vote, he's poor either way.
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On February 10 2016 06:47 boxerfred wrote:
NM, what do you think about Moosy?
He is likely scum. Very likely, and likely over you tbh.
I'm at Koshi/VA and then one of Moosy or Chezinu.
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On February 10 2016 06:53 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2016 06:52 Rels wrote:
All these dumbtells are unbelievable. BF CANNOT make the same mistake he made 24 hours ago. I actually didn't. 24 hours ago, I was sold on the idea of a scum vig. Now, I'm thinking that there's a town vig in, too.
I'm actually not that great at balance for more than 13 players, so I'm not about to point fingers.
That said....there's enough kp flying around as it is. There's no town vig. And it's a scum vig because Palmar should have been shot night 1.
The fact he wasn't indicates there was a scum vig - plus, no one claimed the shot. Typically, when there's an errant shot like that the town vig usually claims. Here there was no claim, so you can assume it's a scum vig.
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On February 10 2016 06:55 marvellosity wrote:
what insane town vigi do you think would shoot any of those players instead of Palmar?
why are you even thinking this?!
Bah you ninjaed me.
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On February 10 2016 06:54 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2016 06:53 NocturneMage wrote:On February 10 2016 06:47 boxerfred wrote:
NM, what do you think about Moosy? He is likely scum. Very likely, and likely over you tbh. I'm at Koshi/VA and then one of Moosy or Chezinu. Koshi -> Chez -> the rest tbh i'm coming round to bf town. I'm just not letting myself think about all the contradictions I found. It's bad for my health
Why is Chezinu "more" mafia than VA/Moosy?
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EPT
