EPTActually posting this from my phone just before going to sleep, off to a great start.
Newbie Student Mafia XIX
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Alur
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Actually posting this from my phone just before going to sleep, off to a great start. | ||
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Alur
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On January 27 2016 01:28 nooniansoong wrote: it's either alur or ikidomari Don't lynch me yo! | ||
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On January 27 2016 03:34 Shapelog wrote: Dang, this guy is good. First he makes us believe that he has replied to the Confirmation PM but using thread presence. Than pushs the sus. towards Alur and Ik. who have been lurking. Than Kush pushs his agenda for him and cleans his hands. If it wasn't for Prince LoneMeow's Red check I might of pushed your agenda too So triggered right now. | ||
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Alur
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First mafia game anywhere ever for me, should be fun. Got interested from watching the Dota 2 community mafia streams. Also casually ghosted a few of the recent games on TL. My observations as of right now: 1. Shapelog is the most scummy player to me. Reason A: Announcing you have some sort of tell on a player(noon), before he has even posted seems like a really bad idea. If hes mafia he can now attempt to replicate his his VT play from "the last two games", and even if he doesn't do "the tell" he'll be more prepared to defend himself from Shapelog. Reason B: He was the first to bring up the possible setups. Before the game started I considered if there would be any merit for town to discuss setups on D1, and I concluded that talking about it before anyone had claimed anything would be probably be useless. Bringing up useless stuff doesn't further the town agenda. Although the fact that he's done all this so fast is a little confusing. 2. Slight townread on _MexicanAlien. He seems to have a genuine interest in solving the game. Didn't know that mafia knows the setup (could be WIFOM I guess, but whatevs). 3. Slight mafiaread on Darthfoley I would've expected him to be more excited about rolling town considering his previous game. His posting also feels a little casual and uninvested at times: On January 27 2016 06:43 darthfoley wrote: he did help successfully defend me from a lynch that game tho so shoutouts to you kush Going forward: Talk about other players. On January 27 2016 07:34 _MexicanAlien wrote: Is anyone else here seeing a pattern? Not sure what you're referring to, very curious to hear what you've noticed. | ||
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Alur
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I feel like I end up editing 50% of my posts online, guess I'll be EBWOPPING all game. Also Onegu seems intent on town not engaging in fruitless discussions. It seems towny, but I'm guessing any experienced mafia player would notice these types of town mistakes and try to capitalize for towncred. So I'm hesitant to townread him too much for it. | ||
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Do you have any scumreads? I'm a little sad that I didn't ask this question before he left. Ended up spending quite a bit of time on my entrypost. | ||
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On January 27 2016 09:23 nooniansoong wrote: What could be wifom and why is it wifom? FYI mafia doesn't know the setup but they have a better idea of it because they know each other's roles. Why is it scummy to be casual? He already explained it I think. Firstly #2 states: "The mafia will be informed as to which setup is chosen, but the town will not!" So yes, the mafia does know the setup. MexicanAlien posted: On January 27 2016 07:23 _MexicanAlien wrote: Yes why talk about blue roles? This could possibly give the scum information. This may or may not help them but we shouldn't unwittingly give them any more To me, this post suggests that MexicanAlien was not aware of the fact that mafia knows the setup. If he was mafia, he would know that mafia knew the setup. I think, it's WIFOM because it could be a gambit to make himself seem town. Regarding being casual: Not necessarily scummy, especially early on day 1. But when I look through his filter he seems too content on just making casual conversation (for my taste), but it's only as strong as any day 1 read can be, which is a caveat that I don't feel the need to post with my every read. I was also hoping for him to defend himself. Regarding the pattern: I don't think he explained it. He talks about a bunch of stuff after #235, but I can't tell if the observations he makes are different/unrelated to the pattern he claims to have seen in #235. | ||
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Alur
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Looking forward to seeing more from the posters who have been inactive so far, maybe Eden will make his pretty looking early-game big post again? I should be back in 10 hours. | ||
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I'll start by addressing stuff that was directed towards me. On January 27 2016 12:28 Trfel wrote: Questions @Alur: How confident are you in Shapelog being mafia? Also, can you explain specifically what you didn't like/understand about PepperMintTea's post? Because I thought I understood it pretty well. @Nooniansoong: Which point are you referring to, and to what extent do you agree with it? @Onegu: What do you think about Shapelog's alignment, and why? How confident was I in Shapelog being mafia? Not super confident, even though he was the one exhibiting the most scummy behavior. My post was made early on day 1, and it was entirely plausible that he was being a reckless town player. But his play really stood out to me as not furthering town agenda, so I was giving my honest read of him. Regarding me considering shapelogs post wierd: A big part of it was probably simply the fact that her reads were at odd's with my own (she townread Shapelog, and she townread MexicanAlien for very different reasons). In addition to that there was the vague "I don't like how he phrased this as a question, but I can't really say why.", which struck me as a little odd. To be honest that fact that noon interrogated her and voted her probably influenced my opinion as well. Now a question to you Trfel, I don't understand why you'd ask the question directed towards noon. How the hell can you be unsure what point he's referring to? If you followed the conversation I feel it's very obvious that he's referring the point I initially made in my entry post, and elaborated on in #274. To me it conveys a lack of reading comprehension, since I've only really made one noteworthy point about MA. Here's the point: On January 27 2016 10:01 Alur wrote: MexicanAlien posted: To me, this post suggests that MexicanAlien was not aware of the fact that mafia knows the setup. If he was mafia, he would know that mafia knew the setup. I think, it's WIFOM because it could be a gambit to make himself seem town. And lastly, PepperMint, reading your post again you're right in that you didn't explicitly townread Onegu. So I misrepresented your position by saying you did. | ||
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Alur
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As to my reason A for thinking Shapelog seemed scummy (which you didn't think made sense): You sort of answered this yourself here: On January 27 2016 15:47 darthfoley wrote: Ah I see what you mean. Meh, it's possible, but I find it unlikely to work because I doubt Kush would give a fuck regardless of his alignment, and Shapelog is all over the place so if I were mafia, I wouldn't be too scared of him (yet?). As Onegu says, mafia could be talking just to talk. I think it's scummy because I feel like it's such a stupid townplay to mention reads before a player has talked. I understand the argument of it being "too scummy to be actualy scum", which I attempted to convey by saying "Although the fact that he's done all this so fast is a little confusing." immediately after giving my two reasons for scumreading Shapelog. Regarding: On January 27 2016 13:53 darthfoley wrote: I'm a little put off by the fact that you felt like you needed to spend quite a bit of time on your entry post It's not an unreasonable thing for you to mention, but I put effort into my post, by explaining and sourcing my reads as well as I could. Admitting that I spent a long time on the post also seems like an unnecessary to say if I was mafia (I know it's WIFOM, but I feel it deserves mention.) | ||
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But this series of events seems strange to me: On January 27 2016 12:16 darthfoley wrote: I would agree that Onegu reads town for me so far. (This was in reply to Tumblewood when he upgraded Onegu to slight townread, and downgraded Trfel to null) Then Eden presents Onegu as his top suspect. Largely based on the same material that you townread Onegu on. Then you go on to say: On January 27 2016 16:26 darthfoley wrote: Yea I really like these posts from Eden. He's probably my strongest TR so far. Surely if you thought Onegu was town, you'd discuss the matter with Eden rather than just lauding his post. I for one think it's entirely plausible that Onegu is just asshole town. You look a little flip-floppy here. | ||
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On January 27 2016 22:42 Shapelog wrote: I don't like how this guy only post says that he has reasons to lurk and asking other people to give him questions. Idk, It might be town hearted because he seems to have good reasons to lurk for right now. Still if this guy doesn't post anything make sure you keep a eye on him, as i will be. To me that post was pretty NAI, obviously we should take note if he doesn't post anything, but I'd like to wait longer before insinuating that he's inactive scum. Don't see the benefit if bringing this up before his alibi runs out. | ||
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I disagree with people townreading Kuragari, if you look at his filter (which is short, so this is easy to verify), notice how his posts are based on reading into if people have referenced their alignment. Which is not terrible in and of itself, but it was something that Tumblewood introduced originally. It seems improbable, that a town player who reads up on the entire thread, ends up not really giving any meaningful original reads or opinions, and just piggybacks on Tumblewoods "allignment refence" tool. On that note, I'll be back this evening. | ||
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On January 28 2016 01:55 darthfoley wrote: 1. I said Onegu read town to me at the time, because when I posted that, he hadn't posted much, but it seemed focused on not talking about pointless bullshit. 2. Surely if I thought Onegu was town, I would discuss it with Eden, which is specifically why I posted: I addressed this very point. It was 2AM and Eden was going to bed soon, so I wanted to wait to address it today. 3. I townread Eden more for his town read of Shapelog rather than his scum read of Onegu. 4. If you had actually read my filter thoroughly, the three previous points would be rather straightforward. I wasn't flip-floppy. I agree that it's WIFOM to talk about your entry post, but I don't have much of a reason to TR you right now. The thing is, I think just reading the thread is enough to have an opinion on Edens read. So I would still have expected you to say something. In any case, I'd put you on null, since you've also done some towny stuff like call out Tumblewood for listing Trfel as possible town. | ||
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On January 28 2016 00:06 Trfel wrote: Oh, you were joking. I liked this attitude  Also, I think someone had a question to me about my question to nooniansoong, I'm more than happy to answer it after nooniansoong answers. Answering now would defeat the purpose of my initial question. That was me. And no, answering my question would not defeat the purpose of your entire question to noon. You asked: On January 27 2016 12:28 Trfel wrote: Questions @Nooniansoong: Which point are you referring to, and to what extent do you agree with it? The question "Which point are you referring to" is absurd. Because I only made one point about MA in my conversation with noon. Noon would give the exact same answer, regardless if he was mafia or not. And no one would gain anything from it. The fact that you had to ask the question just makes me question your reading comprehension. Because if you were to read our exchange, it's blatantly obvious which point he's referring to. I can understand that you don't want to elaborate on the second part of the question, since it involves getting noon to clarify his opinion on the matter, which can arguably lead to useful information. Which you should probably push noon on, if you were legitimately interested in getting an answer. So from my point of view, you're either lazy town, or mafia attempting to look inquisitive. | ||
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The point about you being incapable of formulating original opinions when you entered. And instead relying on a specific read, that was introduced by another player just before you started posting. | ||
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On January 28 2016 02:42 Trfel wrote: Fine. Next time, please don't assume that you know everything. What was nooniansoong trying to say by the last quote? Alur's conclusion about _MexicanAlien wasn't very clear, because when he explained it, he said that he thinks it's WIFOM, and WIFOM isn't alignment indicative. It seems that Alur feels that _MexicanAlien is town for reasons that are partially WIFOM, but it's not completely clear. Furthermore, what is nooniansoong saying when he says that the point makes sense? Does this mean that he understands it, or agrees with it? The two are very different things. It's okay if you find my conclusion unclear, you are of course free to ask me to elaborate on this. But I only really made one "point" about MA. So I still can't see what other point about MA (coming from me) you might think noon thought "made sense". I honestly just don't understand the world where you paid attention to events that had unfolded up until then, and still asked the first part of that question. Does anyone else agree with my sentiment? I'm asking because maybe I only think the discussion, and the preceding events were easy to follow because I took part in them. | ||
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Alur
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I know Trfel aleady already asked, but since his questions don't carry a lot of weight atm, I'd also like you to elaborate on this. That post on it's own cant possibly be reason enough for you back off Onegu. Is this some sort of metaread? | ||
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On January 28 2016 02:08 Shapelog wrote: You woke me up. also i fliped because I didn't say the quoted phase  Idc if i have cred, and why should i care. Unless I am getting mislynched there isn't no need to please people. I rather post reads and do shit. But Brah would you let me push you onto the radar to the townies? You say you don't care about towncred. But it's also important for townies to actually read as town, since it makes it easier for the rest of the town to mafia. My main scumreads are Trfel and Kuragari42 at the moment. I'm not sure what to think of Shapelog, but would also have expected him to calm down had he been town. My problem is that I'm leaning scum on too many people right now. I'd very much like Jesus to elaborate on his reads. I'd also very much like Eden (who I'm leaning towards being town) to elaborate on the current state of his Onegu read. | ||
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Anyhow, were also approaching a point where the lurking australian needs to start contributing. | ||
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On January 28 2016 04:33 Trfel wrote: Alur, why are you scumreading Kuragari42? His initial series of posts suffered from being quite unoriginal, and his last set of posts throw flak onto Darthfoley for changing his opinions on things - and while that did occur, he was once again not the first one to bring it up. He also only stated he was "semi-suspicious" after Darth had thrown suspicion on him. But he's promised us a big post, so I'm not gonna lynch before he's had his word. Either way, I find it improbable that Darth and Kuragari are the same allignment. On a related note, Onegu does seem a little scummy to me (he very much deals in absolutes, I don't see why he'd be so standoffish as town, but once again him being rude town isn't impossible). And like Darth and Kuragi I don't see you being on a scumteam with Onegu. | ||
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On January 28 2016 04:44 Trfel wrote: Have you ever made a knot a blanket? Basically, you need to tie a large number of knots between cloth cut into strips. But if you mess up and tie cloth to the wrong cloth on the opposite side, you end up with an extra strip of cloth at the end, and you have to go back and fix it. How far back do you go? Just a bit back? No, you go back until you are sure it is right, to make sure you fix the problem. Same thing here. I was questioning an interpretation issue, and I started by going as far back as possible to clarify the basis. Because if the basis is at all unclear, then nothing else matters, no matter how hard you try to make things match. That makes sense. But to me the natural way to phrase that question is "What do you think Alur meant by X". "Which point are you referring to" insinuates that I made several points on the matter, I also think it leads to less interesting answers, because it can be answered by quoting me. | ||
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On January 28 2016 05:06 Trfel wrote: It seems to me like your reasons for scumreading Kuragari42 are based on "these things don't show that he is town" instead of "these things shoe that he is scum". Is this true? Did you look at the way that Onegu has acted towards Shapelog? About Kuragari: I think lack of original thought, and primarily relying on already existing tendencies is mafia indicative. His posts don't feel like they're coming from a town perspective (to me). However, his blunt admittance to the fact that he's bad at pushing original agendas could be town indicative. So I grant you that we can't rule out a townie without direction. I'll look into Onegu's interactions with Shapelog, sec. | ||
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Alur
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To summarize: Onegu is critical of shapelogs "future towntell" on noon. He also dislikes shapelogs spammy and/or "bad" posts. Proceeds to null read him. Anything I am missing Trfel? What conclusion should I draw here? I agree with a lot of what Onegu is saying, and I'm still having trouble placing Shapelog in either of the two alignments myself. | ||
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On January 28 2016 04:28 Alur wrote: You say you don't care about towncred. But it's also important for townies to actually read as town, since it makes it easier for the rest of the town to mafia. My main scumreads are Trfel and Kuragari42 at the moment. I'm not sure what to think of Shapelog, but would also have expected him to calm down had he been town. My problem is that I'm leaning scum on too many people right now. I'd very much like Jesus to elaborate on his reads. I'd also very much like Eden (who I'm leaning towards being town) to elaborate on the current state of his Onegu read. Bumping question in case you missed it Shapelog. Do you really not care about towncred? Seems like an apathetic thing to say if you're town. If people are suspicious of you, and you're town, the town is wasting it's time and energy. | ||
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At this point a number of players are learning towards me being town. But there was a significant difference in how various players established their townreads on me. Noteably Darthfoley, Pepperminttea and Shapelog gradually started townreading me over day 2, as they had some reasonable objections to my day 1 posts (or atleast Darth and pepper did). Players who townread me in pretty much their very first posts are: Tumblewood (townlean on his list) + JesusIncarnate (he sort of townreads me in #413 by saying "i also like alur, there reads are pretty similar to mine.") The first type of read seems more genuine to me. Not sure how much weight we wanna place on this (since it could be that they just casually townread me), but it feels very mentionworthy. | ||
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##Vote: Kuragari42 | ||
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Can you explain or elaborate on why Trfel "looks solid to you"? The post's in your filter that relate to Trfel go like this: On January 28 2016 01:58 nooniansoong wrote: trfel your questions are bad lol Into And. On January 28 2016 08:04 nooniansoong wrote: Trfel looks solid to me. Eden is scum though. I am almost sure of that. Secondly, if you have any amount of conviction for your scumread on me. Is it not in the towns interest that you air your concerns, so that the town can reevaluate me? Like if your read is more than a joke, or a vague sense of paranoia, shouldn't you try to sway town, since I seem to have a moderate impact on the towns direction (which would be quite bad for town if I was mafia). That's gonna be my last post for today. I'm worried that this game might damage my productivity at work tomorrow though. Also hopefully Shapelog will have answered my question by then. | ||
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Reply to Trfel, and call out noon for not fully answering my question. On January 28 2016 18:07 Trfel wrote: I mean, I may be lousy at interacting with people, but believe it or not I do have some analysis ability, enough to talk about reads I mean, I was going to save this for later, but maybe it's just best to share it now. I don't know why people are townreading Alur, and I think there's a fair chance that he is mafia. His posting doesn't feel very involved. It feels like he's staying under the radar, and he's not driving things forward. I don't see him driving things forward from his perspective, either. His reads don't match well. One example of this is how he started by saying that he thinks it's wrong to townread Kuragari42, but doesn't say that he is scum. Then he says that Kuragari42 and I (Trfel) are his top scum reads, and then says that maybe Onegu is a bit scummy. And then votes for Kuragari42 over Onegu (no mention of me). The big thing is that he's been very under the radar since he started being townread. I think that PepperMintTea is town and always have. I've generally found PepperMintTea's posts quite insightful, particularly the early read on Shapelog (the nervous/anxious thing, that's an emotion I've commonly felt as town). Generally, players who post actually insightful info and seem to be putting out their own thoughts to solve the game are just town. I'm surprised you don't know why people are leaning town on me, because a number of people have stated their reasons explicitly. Darthfoley - liked my pressure on you (didn't explicit say townlean, but it's reasonable to interpret it as such). Ikidormari - Gives a number of reasons in his entrypost. Shapelog - Believes I'm actively solving the game and paying attention (#456) Tumblewood - In (#581) he explains how he think's I'm the most motivated for finding scum You are of course free to disagree with them, or want them to elaborate, or ask for the opinions of players who have not made reads on me. But to say that you don't know why people are townreading me, once again makes me think that you're not very intent on reading the thread. The biggest reason why I voted Kuragari over you or Onegu, is that my reads on Onegu and you, were at that point influenced by others players reads (people had called you out for only spamming questions, and Onegu for being unhelpful and making absolutist statements). The only scumreads where I can be sure my opinion is not influenced by other peoples ulterior motives, is one that I made by myself (which is the scumcase agaisn't Kuragari, that I initiated, even though 2 players had slightly townread him). I also hope that you don't base your read too much on the fact that I live in Europe. To noon My question was twofold, while your answer regarding your "next-level read" on me made some sense (vague paranoia seems like a townie trait, since town players are inherently suspicious of other, due to lack of info). You didn't answer my question regarding the progression of your read on Trfel. Why does Trfel "look solid to you"? What specifically makes you think that? | ||
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On January 29 2016 00:48 Kuragari42 wrote: But.. I think that any mafia would consider NK'ing Eden, probably Darth as well. This really has little indication of your alignment. Not to mention that the doc in this game might change up the NK a bit. Rofl. What doc? How can you be sure this is setup A) or C)? | ||
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If you're town lynching you is always bad. "I'm probably the weakest player in this game, so feel free to lynch me for that reason" is a turn off. In addition to that, you asked for definitions of certain mafia terms. These terms were used from the very beginning of the thread. If you didn't understand them as you read through the thread initially, and you didn't bother to look them up or ask about their meaning asap, it looks like you're not that interested in understanding the game. In any case I think a tryhard newb townie looks up terms on his own. | ||
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It's not something to scumread a person on exclusively, but it's something I took note of. | ||
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I consider this improbably. In any case I am completely willing to lynch a player who slips like that when I already have a scumread on him. | ||
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On January 28 2016 09:20 Alur wrote: Two questions for noon: Can you explain or elaborate on why Trfel "looks solid to you"? The post's in your filter that relate to Trfel go like this: Into And. | ||
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On January 29 2016 01:49 nooniansoong wrote: no. like i said before. get a majority of votes on either me or trfel then I might explain. What? There is arguably some logic to not be willing to share scumreads. But why are you incapable of elaborating on a townread? Like I really don't see how it could hurt town. If you genuinely believe someone is town, you have a vested interest in convincing town of your read. The most legitimate way of doing this is by giving reasons, which as a bonus reveals how you're thinking about the game. You being incapable of providing reasons for townreading a player that many people find suspicious, makes sense if you're both mafia. You seem opposed to increasing the sum of knowledge publicly available to the town. | ||
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On January 29 2016 02:06 Kuragari42 wrote: Goof on my part. I just remember someone saying something about NK's being weird due to a doc. Who said this and where? | ||
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Remember were disregarding that it's probably less likely for the doc to slip, and that several people are reading you as scum already. | ||
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On January 29 2016 01:52 nooniansoong wrote: scumlist for brags 3. JesusIncarnate 4. Alur 10. Onegu 13. Shapelog You're saying I opened up by bussing my fellow scum, while continuously being critical of his playstyle. While also slightly leaning scum on Onegu, and stating that only 1 of Onegu and Trfel could be mafia. So even if I were to help getting Trfel lynched, it would put immense pressure on my scummate. | ||
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Although the point regarding how he only asked when it was brought up against him, suggests that he didn't care about understanding the thread that much while reading through it. | ||
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On January 29 2016 02:40 Kuragari42 wrote: Yeah, my bad. Still no clue about the rule. The rule we're referencing is the rule about how the game is played on 1 out of 4 possible setups. Explained here by the host: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/502408-newbie-student-mafia-xix#2 | ||
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On January 29 2016 02:35 nooniansoong wrote: I think kura townslipped. Aka dumbtell I assume you have no reasons or that you're not willing to share them. | ||
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On January 29 2016 02:50 Shapelog wrote: If he is Doc: well he just outed himself If he is Vt and there is a Doc and he outs: We lose a Doc for a vt, Horrible If he Is Scum, claims, and get CCed: We lose a doc for a scum, which is O.K. but considering how every successful heal adds a +1 to the needed mislynch counter He's not gonna claim doc if he's VT. Please Kura don't claim doc if you're VT. If we trade we also get to talk to a confirmed town player before he get's lynched. I think I'm ok with trading doctor for a scum, especially when there's a 66% chance of it being a special mafia, and seeing that doctor is at risk of getting lynched anyways. | ||
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On January 29 2016 02:56 nooniansoong wrote: If he were scum he would have known that there isn't definitely a doc. Instead he read something and misinterpreted it to mean there was a doc On January 19 2016 00:28 LoneMeow wrote: The mafia will be informed as to which setup is chosen, but the town will not! If he's scum, and there is a doc, he knows that there is definitely a doc. Are you trying to say that a mafia player would have studied the rules more closely? | ||
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On January 29 2016 03:01 Shapelog wrote: Did Kush just Dumbtell/Scum slip talking about Kura Scumslip/Dumbtell? Nah. If he said "there definitely isn't a doc" it would be a scumslip. "there isn't definitely a doc" is a true statement. | ||
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On January 29 2016 03:06 Trfel wrote: I mean, mechanically speaking: The best play is to simply not talk about this any more and just not lynch Kuragari42. The reason for this is that time will make this more clear than any amount of analysis, since in time more information about power roles is revealed. Further, talking about this more only gives mafia additional information. Unless I'm misunderstanding the situation, which is also possible, I suppose. He hasn't said anything that has made me want to not lynch him. He is still the best lynch in my opinion. He failed to contribute with original opinions, his filter is short, and he scumslipped. But I would also not be completely opposed to lynching you, and maybe Ikidomari. Mafia will only get additional information by people claiming, simply talking about Kuragari42 as a lynch option because of a possible scumslip (among other things), doesn't give mafia any info. If you don't want to lynch Kura, who do you suggest we lynch? Or what do you want to talk about? | ||
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On January 29 2016 03:27 Shapelog wrote: Like we have a guy who In my mind scumslip or dumbtelled Doc. Vs A guy who came in with reads that contradicted each other (and bascailly everything in Eden case). And was given outs from Eden and Darth. Darth did explain why he did though, and make a good point. Might of been scum trying to save scum mate. The thing I don't like about Eden's cases, is how much conviction he has behind some of his reads when he introduces them. I also don't think Ikidokaris reads were contradictory, just vague or poorly explained. #368: "- Shapelog is obviously town, and the first thing I want to do when I get the motivation to read this game in detail (which will be tomorrow, hold me to this and don't let me be lazy) is to read the sequence of people scumreading him early while it was the "in" read to give, because I'm almost positive scum were involved in that." Sidenote: I guess we forgot to hold him his promise and let him be lazy. #671: "This Ikidomari guy is basically lock scum, we can lynch him too." It at least seems plausible that Ikidomaris post was the result of a nervous first time mafia player, being late to the thread. Which in turn makes Eden's case seems slightly opportunistic. Alas, it could very well be that Eden is just a more confident player than I am. | ||
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Why wouldn't you be happy with Ikidomari? | ||
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On January 29 2016 04:04 Shapelog wrote: Me? Because he had so many escape paths, Practically had a "Poor me, I fucked up and i should die" attitude And Gave up instead of really trying to explain reads or push his scum reads. (Though, as a newbie, he might overprotect himself because he is being scum read as town. I did it my first game, but i was blue) It was directed to PMT, my bad for being unclear. I am aware of your stance on Ikidomari. However, if you're still unsure who to lynch, I think theres a higher chance of Kuragari42 being mafia, than Ikidomari. Or phrased differently, I think its more likely that Ikidomari is a panicked newbie town, than Kuragari being a town who's playing scummy, has a short filter, and is doing dumbtells. On that note. Kuragari you are currently slated for being lynched. If nothing else, you must have some reads or an opinion of the current state of the game. If you're actually being incorrectly lynched right now, a town player should be able to gather some information based on how the bandwagon against you is developing I can't justify not lynching him if he doesn't give a defense. | ||
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Whats happened? I'm assuming you're not gonna tell me. But I should at least point it out to the town. | ||
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Also to the rest of town: If claims happen, be ready to change your lynchvotes accordingly. Not much time left, so things might happen quickly. | ||
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On January 29 2016 04:31 _MexicanAlien wrote: A claim would be pointless though....right? Because he if he was Townie: He would claim Vanilla Townie If he was Mafia: He would claim to be Vanilla Townie + Show Spoiler + or *insert blue role*. To seem valuable. If he was *Blue Role*: He should claim Vanilla Townie. + Show Spoiler + since claiming to be a blue role would not only be very suspicious, it would be counterproductive. The Mafia would now know one of the blues I agree with point nr. 1. I agree that as mafia he could go either way. Since it seems very probable that he's about to get lynched, I think a blue role would claim here. A blue role should not let himself get lynched by any means neccesary. Claiming is the last resort, but worth it if the alternative is certain death. I also think a blue role would've defended himself more adamantly, so that he might avoid having to claim. | ||
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On January 29 2016 04:33 Kuragari42 wrote: READS: Slight Town: PeppermintTea - While I am not in complete agreement with everything they have said/done, I have gotten a pretty steady townie vibe from them. Trofl - While originally his questions bothered me and made me lean slightly scum, I now see that each of them had a point. Shapelog - His reads/refutations are sort of out-of-the-box yet still have sense and I am in agreement with a lot of his logic. darthfoley - I was suspicious of his early game but I did not scum-read him, I just wasn't content with the strong town-reads on him. Quite a few of his posts mid-game were pretty good. I'd say if this list was ordered he would be pretty low TR. Slight Scum: Eden - His posts are not aligned with how I expect a experienced town player to post. Pretty low SR. Tumblewood - Several of this guy's posts make little sense to me but the people that were attacking/defending (and the way they were doing it) him make him a low SR. I'm largely responsible for you being in this position, what do you think of me? | ||
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On January 29 2016 05:05 Eden1892 wrote: I guess we can lynch this guy for his reads. If this guy flips town then slap all the dummies voting him because of a "slip" that for sure wasn't one (probably) But those reads make no sense with the game state. His scum reads are inconsistent as a team (me and Iki are never ever partners) and the reasoning on them is shoddy and just borrowed from what other people are saying. So are the town reads. The whole thing is just right in line with popular town sentiments with nothing firm said either way (it's almost all leans and nothing committed). I like Iki the best because I'm pretty confident in my initial impression of his posting. But this Kura guy is a fine lynch too based on those reads. If that guy flips town, there's no probably about it, it just can't a scum slip at that point. Or do you mean something else? It's a little unclear what the (probably) refers to. It's odd that I'm his biggest scumread, but he has 0 words to go along with it. Especially when he's on the verge of death. | ||
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On January 29 2016 05:12 Kuragari42 wrote: ##Vote:Tumblewood Surprised you wouldn't vote for Jesus, since it seems like the most viable strategy for you to not get lynched. Since he's your primary competition, lynchwise. | ||
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On January 29 2016 05:27 Kuragari42 wrote: A townie lynch v. a townie lynch.. Jesus claims that he is some super-mafia-guru so I figure out of the two of us, town would benefit more from him being alive. What. If you're town. You can't know for sure if either of them are town. And any lynch other than yourself would be preferable, thus it makes sense to push the most viable alternate wagon. | ||
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On January 29 2016 05:41 Eden1892 wrote: The presumption of innocence in a court of law is to prevent government overreach and abuse of power. No such analogue exists in mafia. We operate on probabilities and are solely guided by the truth -- we have no ulterior motivations to punish people for its own sake. There is no reason to presume innocence by default in this game. Citing that phrase is tantamount to handwaving needing a reason to call someone town. It also has to do with the fact that the imprisonment of an innocent person is considered a much grosser injustice than a free guilty person. At least where I'm from. | ||
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On January 29 2016 05:54 Trfel wrote: I'm actually starting to get cold feet.... I'm inherently afraid to fail. Be it by townreading mafia or scumming town, but looking at the events leading up the lynch reassures me. | ||
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Here are Kuragaris reads: On January 29 2016 04:33 Kuragari42 wrote: READS: Slight Town: PeppermintTea - While I am not in complete agreement with everything they have said/done, I have gotten a pretty steady townie vibe from them. Trofl - While originally his questions bothered me and made me lean slightly scum, I now see that each of them had a point. Shapelog - His reads/refutations are sort of out-of-the-box yet still have sense and I am in agreement with a lot of his logic. darthfoley - I was suspicious of his early game but I did not scum-read him, I just wasn't content with the strong town-reads on him. Quite a few of his posts mid-game were pretty good. I'd say if this list was ordered he would be pretty low TR. Slight Scum: Eden - His posts are not aligned with how I expect a experienced town player to post. Pretty low SR. Tumblewood - Several of this guy's posts make little sense to me but the people that were attacking/defending (and the way they were doing it) him make him a low SR. On January 29 2016 04:52 Kuragari42 wrote: Continued reads... Slight Scum: Ikidomari - His posts seem contorted and I tend to find lynch begging a scum (or at the very least anti-town) thing to do. This also fits in with my slight scum read on Eden if Shape's recent lines of post are correct. Town Lean: Mexican, noon, Onegu. Scum Lean: Alur. I honestly have no clue: Jesus. Time to look at who voted on Kura for scummy or vague reasons (+timing). | ||
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On January 29 2016 06:35 Shapelog wrote: Fuck! Why do i listen to my Gut? oh well, at least we did accomplish somethings by his death. Ikindo is my direction heading into tomorrow. Might post a synopsis of why he needs to get lynched in case I get NKed before the cycle ends. I thought Ikidomari was your gut vote? On January 29 2016 03:46 Shapelog wrote: God dammit I am so Torn right now. If only I could vote two people... I am half tempting to try to find a loophole to where i can vote both my top scum reads for todays lynch. But considering how i like the Shining (CoHost) and Prince Lonemeow (host) I will not. I think I going to vote with my gut and ##Vote: Ikidomari Though IMO both him and Kuga are up for it. Also Jesus considering the points made against him. | ||
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If we assume mafia helped push the wagon, it would've happened at a point where it wasn't obvious that the lynch would go through, so were talking the first 4 ish votes. Which would be me, Darth, PMT and Trfel. Trfel coming in as the fourth looks pretty suspicious, considering I was leaning towards him being scum. But then theres this, thing (this is how Trfel acts on the Kura vote) On January 29 2016 03:06 Trfel wrote: I mean, mechanically speaking: The best play is to simply not talk about this any more and just not lynch Kuragari42. The reason for this is that time will make this more clear than any amount of analysis, since in time more information about power roles is revealed. Further, talking about this more only gives mafia additional information. Unless I'm misunderstanding the situation, which is also possible, I suppose. Followed by: On January 29 2016 03:15 Trfel wrote: I guess I was misinterpreting the situation. ##unvote ##vote Kuragari42 There is no mafia motivation for saying the bolded part, but when you just "jk" it, it could appear like he's just trying to gain some sort of deniability, especially when combined with the "I think I'm getting cold feet". But PMT and Darth (who could potentially be pocketing me) aren't clear of suspicion either. I just don't have much to hinge that suspicion on currently. Also I'm not sure I understand Edens motivation for joining the wagon last minute. He didn't actually need to vote for it to happen. It seems like it could be a ploy to gain some towncred, because mafia don't need to touch the wagon anymore at that point. He also tried to discredit Kuragari's reads (who scumread him). I think noon actually looks kind of spooky now, in the world where he has too much information his play makes a lot of sense. He was quick to disagree with it being a scumslip (which he was right on), he made a big point of forcing Kuragari to claim (which looks towny, but it's sort of an obvious move). All while his vote was parked on a player (albeit a reasonable lynchtarget) who is one of the biggest lynchbaits. Without really pushing that specific lynch. I think I kind of like mexican for sticking with his lynch. He presented which players he would be able to lynch, and didn't back down on his reads to join the Kura bandwagon. This also coincides with the fact that he's a townread of mine. Some of this might be tinfoily, but that's because there aren't any conclusions that are staring me in the face. | ||
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Of all the newbies you and me have the most similar mafia experience, but I'm finding it increasingly difficult to relate to you. | ||
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On January 29 2016 18:16 Ikidomari wrote: Quite simple really, over the late november - early january period I was working 3-4 days a week, now I'm working 5-6 days a week, and haven't cut down on the amount of social events. Typically on a lunch break I'll watch a stream or some VODs, or browse /vg/ if there's nothing I want to watch. Ok. Looking forward to your take on the game. I will be afk for 5-6 hours. Speaking of 5-6 hours. Jesusincarnate complete failed to deliver on his promise. | ||
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On January 29 2016 19:10 Ikidomari wrote: I'm mostly done with my analysis, I've got 4.5 out of 12reads to go. should be up within the hour unless dinner interrupts. this is taking longer than I thought to type everything up. We don't care about your reads on yourself or Kuragari42. We want to hear your reads on up to 11 players. Ok I'm actually leaving now. | ||
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This means that the list doesn't take into account the last page or so. I'm happy to elaborate on anything. Reads list: Good chance of being town: Darthfoley – I like his reasons/timing for voting to lynch the best. To me his filter also conveys being interested and paying attention to ongoing discussions.. Townlean: Mexican – Seems lynch oriented, and stuck with his lynchvote even when the bandwagon on Kura hadn't matured. Admittedly has both towny and slightly scummy posts. Noon – Looking back at it, he played well during the Kura lynch. He's also reasonably inquisitive. He's also scumread a fuckton of people, and I think being inherently paranoid is a town trait. But I feel like a tinfoil case for TMI can be made (regarding how he handled the lynch). Null: Onegu – I don't think his day 1 was overwhelmingly scummy or towny, he has explaining to do because of his absense. Note: He just got lynched in the other game he was playing, so I think we can expect more effort and activity from him. Shapelog – I was going to townread him just based on my overall impression of him by reading the thread. But looking at his filter, I'm finding it hard to do in good conscience, because of how reckless he is, like I really don't think he's providing the town with that much. He's alluded to the fact that his play is going to change as the game goes on, I guess I wouldn't mind seeing that. But if you put a gun to my head I'd say town. Eden - He's made cases, the cases seemed reasonably logical, even if I find him overzealous at times that could just be pressuring. Not sure what to make of his pulling back on reads. Aswell as his lastminute joining the bandwagon into saying “Don't feel bad, twas' a reasonable lynch”, could be trying to blend in. But gutwise he might be town. PepperMintTea – (Had a hard time placing this one) Her type of posting activity strikes me as suspicious, same with her history behind her vote. Also not having anything at all to say after a mislynch where you're the third to vote also seems odd. Admittedly her day 1 filter says quite a few things that make sense, case in point #723 Tumblewood – He's the player I feel I know the least about by just casually having read the thread. And reading his filter doesn't give me strong feelings one way or the other. If we were to move on him I would have a hard time formulating a case (as of right now). Scumlean: JesusIncarnate – Coming out cocky while saying close to nothing, followed by making promises he doesn't keep. Can't possibly be the mafia grandmaster he claimed to be. Ikidomari – Arguably attempting to guilt town out of lynching. Overall I thought his defense was quite weak. His night post with reads didn't do enough for me. Probably scum: Trfel – I really think his posting reveals that he is not motivated to read the thread (See the two instances where I called him out for questions I didn't like). He seems out of touch with general town sentiments (See his bizarre hesitation on the day 1 lynch). He's also the player, that when townread on day 1 (which happened a few times), was townread with the least reasoning behind it (imo). NOTE!: It seems very improbable that my 3 most scummy reads are all scum. For example Ikidomari parked his vote on jesus, while also scumreading Trfel. There almost has to be scum in my null/town reads. | ||
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On January 30 2016 03:34 Trfel wrote: I feel like its weird that PMT spends much of her early posting talking about townreads. Or often not even talking about townreads, but saying why other peoples scumreads are incorrect, without having a read on those people. When PMT finally posts scumreads, they seem willing to lynch most anyone, including all suspects. This seems really strange given how aggressively PMT was shooting down non-definitive scumreads earlier. The exception to this is the scumread on Tumblewood, which was an original thought scumreading. In regards to scumreads and the lynch, I feel that PMT has been very much in the background and non-influential. But the critical thinking is there, so I'm very unsure. Thoughts? I took note of this as well. It looked surprisingly easy for her to townlean people early on. In reply to that Onegu said that it's just a way some people play. Which might be true, I really don't know what is most prevalent. Personally I find that it takes a lot for me to trust somebody. I would have preferred it if you referenced specific posts with your allegation. Really makes it a lot easier for town to see your point of view. | ||
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On January 30 2016 03:24 darthfoley wrote: Don't like the vibe from this tbh. You really don't have anything to say about me scum reading Shapelog or Trfel? Or about MexicanAlien or Shapelog scumreading Trfel? Or Ikidomari's or Tumblewood's list posts? I think there are always things to talk about as town. Yo Darth, sup with this post? Why do you bring up Ikidomaris list post? It was made two hours after PMT made her post. She couldn't possibly have known if it's existence when she made her post. | ||
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On January 30 2016 04:21 Trfel wrote: Owait you're talking about mafia nks. I thought we were talking about reads. My bad. Alur, mafia can shoot themselves. So Eden doesn't have to be town to get killsd. Actually didn't know that. But it makes complete sense when roles of kills are revealed immediately, since it would always be a bad mafia play. My confusion is a result of it being the opposite in the mafia stream event I watched. | ||
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On January 30 2016 04:40 Shapelog wrote: I thought he was refering to the post right b/4 she voted Because in the post she talked about Ikido and Tumble. He's quoting the post he's referring to. I don't see how he could be referring to anything else, or how you could interpret it as a reference to something else. | ||
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Although I guess if you're just doing it to call people bad it's not entirely inconsistent with your persona so far. | ||
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On January 30 2016 04:56 Onegu wrote: This is why you should have town read him. This comes from town a large majority of the time for future reference. If that was me getting lynched I would prioritize not getting lynched over being afraid of mislynching. Like it's not 100% impossible that the counterwagon would've gone through, in which case town would've been better off (since theres a <100% chance of the counterwagon being town. | ||
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On January 30 2016 05:20 darthfoley wrote: "just going to read and then get to work" If she's reading the thread, I don't know why she wouldn't do anything during the night. My only point is that there has been plenty of stuff going on during the night worth at least discussing imo. If she were to die for example, she dies without giving a more up to date version of her reads, leaving town with a death and not much info to go off of. That or she meant reading for pleasure and going to work irl? Maybe I completely misunderstood her post idk I understand what you meant by the post. My complaint is why you specifically mention Ikidomari's post as something "she should have wanted talked about", when Ikidomaris post was made after she peaced out. She might not even have read it yet. | ||
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I've pretty much put all my reads on the table, see my reads list + my vca. Caveat: Since Onegu just started posting, and Jesus hasn't returned, those would be my least developed reads. So obviously you should take into consideration future posts by them. But I'll bring up a point that might be relevant in the future, in case I get lynched. When we lynched kuragari42, there are two distinct mafia mindsets. Option number 1: Were playing the setup with a doctor (A or C): The mafia will be aware that Kuragari42 is potentially the doctor. They could potentially have revealed this in the way they treated the case. Example: Trfel #1034 On January 29 2016 09:03 Trfel wrote: Vote count analyses are very different depending on whether or not there is mafia up for lynch. If all of the wagons were town, mafia doesn't really care what happens. As such, people who seem invested at end of day and care about the lynch are more likely town. If there is mafia up for lynch, then obviously people who voted for the flipped town are more suspicious. But that's very poor preflip association analysis to simply assume that mafia wanted Kuragari42 to be lynched. I thought that Kuragari42 had slipped blue and/or was claiming blue, in which case it's always incorrect to lynch him. When I looked at his filter more carefully, this wasn't the case, so I switched my vote to him because his reads didn't seem very interesting. It didn't feel like Kuragari42 was trying to help further town and help catch scum, but instead just state his reads for the record. In retrospect, this isn't very alignment indicative. Tumblewood wasn't going to get lynched, and I already explained my reasons for scumreading him as well as I could. I don't really think that JesusIncarnate is mafia. Him thinking Kuragari42 had slipped blue, could be indicative of him being mafia, and knowing were playing setup A) or C). Option number 2: Were playing the setup without a doctor (B or D): The mafia will be aware that Kuragari42 IS FOR SURE TOWN. Mafia once again, might be inclined to reveal this by the way they treat the case. Example: nooniansong #843 On January 29 2016 02:35 nooniansoong wrote: I think kura townslipped. Aka dumbtell So once we know which setup were playing in. Make sure to go back and analyze how players treated the case against Kuragari42 with this in mind. For now the only town aligned players who know that there's a doctor in the game or not is the doctor/veteran, these players could at this point use it to influence their reads (without stating it explicitly). Obviously, by using my logic the behavior I pointed out could also be indicative of the player being blue roles. So use this information to whatever degree or purpose you see fit. This post only helps mafia if they havent thought of it themselves + certain criteria are met. | ||
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Interesting and fun game. Though I wish I had gotten to actually play some more. Glad that at least one of the people I called out for lack of reading comprehension turned out to be scum. Glad that I #BelievedInMyself for my final reads post, because I had considered putting Shapelog in town just cause. But as I said I couldn't do that in good conscience. Sucks that I was wrong about Trfel. It's a shame Onegu and Eden scared Darth into lynching Onegu because of their dick measuring contest. Also props to shapelog for playing a memebased scum playstyle. | ||
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On February 10 2016 07:40 Shapelog wrote: GG to my fellow players and coachs. Special thanks to our teams Coach slam, and to Tumble and Ikido (honestly, if it was not for them we would of not won.) Salt in the god damn wound. I think out of all the people in the game you're the one I'd hate losing to the most. | ||
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You were not being rude at all. I'm just lamenting how you continue putting "of" instead of "have" after "would". It's unintentionally taunting me and irreparably damaging my ego! Have mercy! And for the record I think you were my second favorite player this game (from a spectating viewpoint), for spam + meme + venn diagram reasons. With noon taking the number one spot for passion reasons: aka + Show Spoiler + On February 02 2016 00:22 nooniansoong wrote: Shape, let's talk man to man. You know when you have a scumteam in mind, and you are SO sure of it. Except then you're usually wrong. That's how I feel, but I know I'm right. All my mafia experience and everything in this game is pointing to me being right. I try to recognize my own confirmation bias and eliminate it. But in this case I know I'm right more than I've ever known anything in mafia ever. I need your support in lynching scott or trfel. Scott might be an easier lynch, and it will implicate trfel due to how hard he's defended him. | ||
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On February 10 2016 14:21 _MexicanAlien wrote: I both hate and love TL Mafia right now. I want to run away and never play again buy at the same time I want to play my brains out and become good at the game. Thanks to all the vets who played with us, for putting up with us. Without you we would have no clue what to do or how to play. Seriously, thanks. I probably won't be playing TL Mafia until later this year, I'll seriously have to consider the time commitment involved. I underestimated the time I could get away with. I would love it if any one of you guys have advice for next time. GG to all. + Show Spoiler + Especially Shapelog, Trfel, nooniansoong, and Eden1892 Look what you did Eden, you pummeled this poor newbie into submission. :D I forgot to thank my coach Half the Sky for the coaching, it was good to have a confirmed non-scum to talk with. | ||
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Regardless, isn't making sure the reasons are known is just step 1 though? If you're moderately confident in a given course of action, pushing your agenda and attempting to convince town seems like the logical next step. | ||
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