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Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 6

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 20:32 GMT
#955
That actually makes a fair amount of sense in my head given what just happened. Interested to see how Kura flips
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 20:35 GMT
#960
Let's say Kuragari is mafia with Jesus

Kura doesn't want to bus one of his mafia teammates, especially when thread sentiment is going against Jesus. Perhaps Jesus is a mafia role and Kura is regular goon? Calls it a townie vs. townie lynch to keep suspicion off of him. Find it interesting Jesus has yet to vote. Understand Onegu's reason given his son's situation
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 21:47 GMT
#987
On January 29 2016 06:35 Shapelog wrote:
Fuck! Why do i listen to my Gut? oh well, at least we did accomplish somethings by his death. Ikindo is my direction heading into tomorrow. Might post a synopsis of why he needs to get lynched in case I get NKed before the cycle ends.


I would be astounded if you get NK'd, but I guess it's worth having on the off chance if mafia wants to fuck with people
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 22:03 GMT
#1003
Welp, it sucks we mislynched but I think that given the fact that Kuragari had done nothing worth rescinding a scum read, it was definitely reasonable.

VCA:

Final vote count:

Kuragari42 (6): Alur, darthfoley, PepperMintTea, darthfoley, PepperMintTea, Trfel, Shapelog, Eden1892
JesusIncarnate (3): nooniansoong, darthfoley, Ikidomari, Tumblewood
Tumblewood (2): Trfel, darthfoley, _MexicanAlien, Kuragari42
Ikidomari (0): Eden1892, _MexicanAlien, Eden1892, Shapelog
Trfel (0): Eden1892
Onegu (0): Eden1892, Shapelog, nooniansoong, Trfel, PepperMintTea
PepperMintTea (0): nooniansoong, Shapelog

Not voting (2): JesusIncarnate, Onegu


Looking at the 6 that voted for Kuragari, I think it's probable that one mafia is on the wagon, maybe 2? Kuragari flipping town doesn't change how I view Alur, given that we were the first two iirc to really start wagoning him. I have strong read both PMT and Eden for a while, Shapelog as town lean, and null on Trfel for a while. I will have to look at their filters.

Without Kuragari's vote on Tumblewood, the final VC is

6 Kura
3 Jesus
1 Tumblewood

I think it was super safe for mafia to stay on Jesus because once Kuragari's wagon got steam, there was not going to be a counter wagon. It also gives town cred to Kush, Ikido and Tumblewood for not lynching town, and "staying" on their vote. I'm also fairly certain that at least one of Ikido/Tumblewood is scum. I'll have a look through their stuff too, specifically Tumblewood. At first glance, this also makes me town read MexicanAlien more
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 22:04 GMT
#1005
On January 29 2016 07:00 nooniansoong wrote:
I like how jesus promised to do stuff and never did.


Very exactly.
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 22:15 GMT
#1010
On January 29 2016 07:06 Trfel wrote:
Darthfoley, you think that JesusIncarnate is mafia?


He has done nothing to change my earlier opinion of him. However, that proved to unsuccessful this past vote on Kuragari so
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 22:16 GMT
#1011
On January 29 2016 07:13 _MexicanAlien wrote:
I was halfway though my VCA when I realized I was doing it on the votes against Ikidomari. I don't know why.


I am interested to see your reads
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 22:22 GMT
#1015
On January 29 2016 07:19 _MexicanAlien wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 07:16 darthfoley wrote:
On January 29 2016 07:13 _MexicanAlien wrote:
I was halfway though my VCA when I realized I was doing it on the votes against Ikidomari. I don't know why.


I am interested to see your reads


Wait my read reads? Like not having to do with the fake VCA? My general scum, town reads?


Well, I would like know whether the VC has changed anything, who you read more town or more scum because of the vote
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 22:35 GMT
#1019
Well we basically just used that argument to lynch Kuragari and we we wrong
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 23:05 GMT
#1022
Posting actual VCA in a bit. Think it has some good info inside. Gotta keep you on the edge of your seats
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 23:41 GMT
#1029
Kuragari Wagon History

Alur #573 - 1st vote Kura

darthfoley #574 - 2nd vote Kura; reasoning explained

PMT #761 - 3rd vote Kura
-immediately unvote

PMT #762 - vote Onegu (Onegu only had 1 other vote at this time, from Shapelog I believe)

PMT #868 hops back on Kura train - still 3rd vote
- no explanation

Trfefl #869 - 4th Kura vote
-Previous post claims that Kura lynch is stupid
-Defending Ikido from wagon
-Switches off Tumblewood
-No reasoning given

VC AT TIME OF PMT/Trfel Votes

4 Kuragari (Alur, darthfoley, PMT, Trfel)
3 JesusIncarnate (Noon, Tumblewood, Ikidomari)
1 Tumblewood (MexicanAlien)
1 Ikidomari (Eden)

Not voted: Shapelog, Kuragari, Onegu, Jesus

Shapelog #871 - vote Ikido (now 4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood)

Shapelog #872 - unvote Ikido (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Tumble, 1 Ikido)

Shapelog #878 - vote Ikido, "going with gut" (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood)

Shapelog #894 - vote Kura (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood)
-Gut feeling = Ikido
-Later blames going with gut on Kura vote

Kuragari #935 - vote Tumblewood (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido)

Eden #958 - vote Kura (6 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido)


How many times did people vote?
Shapelog: 4 (PMT, Onegu, Ikido, Kura)
Eden: 4 (Onegu, Trfel, Ikido x2, Kura)
darthfoley: 3 (Tumblewood, Jesus, Kura)
Trfel: 3 (Onegu, Tumblewood, Kura)
PMT: 2 (Onegu, Kura)
Alur: 1 (Kuragari)

This VCA is not a masterpiece, but I think it clearly throws suspicion on two people specifically: Trfel and Shapelog.

Trfel #866:
The best play is to simply not talk about this any more and just not lynch Kuragari42.

The reason for this is that time will make this more clear than any amount of analysis, since in time more information about power roles is revealed. Further, talking about this more only gives mafia additional information.


Trfel #869:

I guess I was misinterpreting the situation.

##unvote
##vote Kuragari42


Notice that he votes literally the post after PMT comes back to the Kuragari wagon, making it 4-3 Kura > Jesus, without giving any explanation why.

Also don't like posts that start like this:

On January 28 2016 18:07 Trfel wrote:
I mean, I may be lousy at interacting with people, but believe it or not I do have some analysis ability, enough to talk about reads


Similarly, Shapelog has been on every wagon in existence: Onegu, Jesus, Ikido, and Kuragari. Gets his gut feeling mixed up (first says his gut is Ikido, later complains how his gut told him to vote Kura).

There is something off about this post. I would've been okay with it perhaps early D1, but this whole "i'm so torn thing!" comes off as fake to me, especially because he only cites other people's reasons... and hasn't made one good case all game.

God dammit I am so Torn right now. If only I could vote two people... I am half tempting to try to find a loophole to where i can vote both my top scum reads for todays lynch. But considering how i like the Shining (CoHost) and Prince Lonemeow (host) I will not.

I think I going to vote with my gut and ##Vote: Ikidomari Though IMO both him and Kuga are up for it. Also Jesus considering the points made against him.


To me, votes #4 and #5 are the votes that should be analyzed, because at 5-3 Kura > Jesus, no one was going to counter push Jesus. ESPECIALLY with Kuragari voting Tumblewood. Eden voting to make it 6-3 is NAI or maybe even slightly town, because that was the only wagon with momentum at that point. If he had hopped on and Kura had been mafia, it's a different story.

In conclusion, i'm scum reading both Shapelog and Trfel
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 23:46 GMT
#1031
On January 29 2016 08:30 _MexicanAlien wrote:
Long post incoming

So Alur is the first person to seriously scum read Kuragari
+ Show Spoiler +
Alur: His initial series of posts suffered from being quite unoriginal, and his last set of posts throw flak on darthfoley for changing his opinion on things-.... he was once again not the first one to bring it up

Alur's feel for Kuragari is that his play shows mafia indicators. Not exactly reason for voting.

Alur:I'll just do this before I start my game, I think he's a better option atm.

##Vote: Kuragari42

Alur has been 'gone' after "switching to dota". He was gone for less than 15 minutes, and the first thing he does is vote on Kura? What seems to prompt this vote was a VC by LoneMeow. I think Alur was simply trying to stop the bandwagon on Onegu (4 votes at the time).


Right after Alur votes, darthfoley does the same.
+ Show Spoiler +
darthfoley:I'm more than fine with that.

##vote: Kuragari42

This looks to be a simple sheep, as darthfoley has agreed with all of Alur's scum read reasons. I suspect darthfoley was a little bit irritated at Kura's dumb read on him.


OK so here I was interrupted by the stupid TL server telling me I need TL+ premium or some balony. Basically I feel the second vote was definitely for legit reasons, the first as well.

As I'm on a phone the formats took forever to do and I'm tired.


Just wanna make sure I understand: you're saying you think both Alur and I voted for Kuragari for legitimate reasons?
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 23:53 GMT
#1032
Just to be clear, i'm scum reading Trfel and Shapelog now not only because of their inconsistent voting patterns, but because I believe a very scummy player (JesusIncarnate or Tumblewood atm) was intentionally saved via the Kuragari wagon.

I want to know from others how they perceive EoD VC
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 28 2016 23:57 GMT
#1033
Oh also, the 2 votes to 4-3 basically killed the Ikido wagon
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 29 2016 00:09 GMT
#1035
I highly doubt that all the wagons, or people who got votes, were town.
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 29 2016 00:13 GMT
#1036
You went from "let's not talk about this and not lynch Kura" to being on board with Kura wagon in 9 minutes?
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 29 2016 01:00 GMT
#1045
On January 29 2016 09:30 nooniansoong wrote:
The VCAs I'm reading kind of suck.
Something that is hurting VCA right now is too potential scummers didn't even vote.


This is true. I have heard remarkably little from you regarding your current reads in the game. Mind sharing any?
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 29 2016 01:03 GMT
#1047
braglist 1.2 = noon
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 29 2016 02:01 GMT
#1065
On January 29 2016 10:56 Ikidomari wrote:
Hey guys I'm awake / at work
I don't have time to make a detailed post but I'm reading your posts in my free time. I'll try and get out my thoughts on the current discussions during my lunch break (about 2-3 hours from now), if not, when I get home (anywhere from 7-10 hours)
If anyone has any questions for me I'll answer them as soon as I get a chance.
Usually I'd be able to post more during work hours but my staff really shit the bed while I was away for a day and a half


Expecting some real content from you. No half assed stuff
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
January 29 2016 02:27 GMT
#1072
On January 29 2016 10:22 Trfel wrote:
I mean, don't blame me that you didn't want to lynch mafia. That's on you.


We didn't want to lynch mafia? Lol. If you were so adamant against him, why would you just say fuck it and join the wagon?
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
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