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Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 20:26 GMT
#946
Sure thing, it'll be sometime tonight if not earlier.

I think a lot of that was in reaction to Ikidomari if that helps. Literally jumping on basically for just not liking Jesus's posting style. That kind of behavior seems to me to be vintage mafia finding an excuse to hop on a town wagon that's gaining steam.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 20:28 GMT
#949
@Alur - the probably is just in reference to what we know right now. Obviously if he flips town it wasn't a scum slip lol
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 20:30 GMT
#953
On January 29 2016 05:27 Kuragari42 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 05:18 Alur wrote:
On January 29 2016 05:12 Kuragari42 wrote:
##Vote:Tumblewood


Surprised you wouldn't vote for Jesus, since it seems like the most viable strategy for you to not get lynched. Since he's your primary competition, lynchwise.


A townie lynch v. a townie lynch..

Jesus claims that he is some super-mafia-guru so I figure out of the two of us, town would benefit more from him being alive.

Hold up you just said Jesus was a complete unknown to you. Now you're saying he's town? And not just that but that because he says he's good at mafia (with zero display of that in game to back it up), you would rather die yourself than lynch him even though you're confirmed town to yourself???
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 20:33 GMT
#957
On January 29 2016 04:52 Kuragari42 wrote:
Continued reads...

Slight Scum:

Ikidomari - His posts seem contorted and I tend to find lynch begging a scum (or at the very least anti-town) thing to do. This also fits in with my slight scum read on Eden if Shape's recent lines of post are correct.


Town Lean:

Mexican, noon, Onegu.


Scum Lean:

Alur.


I honestly have no clue:

Jesus.


“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 20:34 GMT
#958
##UNVOTE
VOTE: Kuragari42
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 20:38 GMT
#962
I mean... Yeah

That was virtually a double scum claim all in one. I think.

The only motivator that makes any sense there is saving Jesus the mafia PR.
Especially when he has no prior opinion on Jesus... Looks like keeping his options open for how to read a buddy
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 20:41 GMT
#965
The presumption of innocence in a court of law is to prevent government overreach and abuse of power.

No such analogue exists in mafia. We operate on probabilities and are solely guided by the truth -- we have no ulterior motivations to punish people for its own sake.

There is no reason to presume innocence by default in this game. Citing that phrase is tantamount to handwaving needing a reason to call someone town.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 21:15 GMT
#978
Shrug still a perfectly reasonable lynch.

Lesson for future games:

If you are town, you should always vote your counter wagon unless the counter wagon is (somehow) confirmed town.

It doesn't matter whether or not Jesus is town or mafia here. Kura doesn't know this. He only knows that he himself is town -- so he should always try to lynch his counter wagon, since the counter wagon isn't known to be town.


Anyway I'm probably killing Iki tomorrow, as of now. I'm not worried about the mislynch -- sucks that we didn hit mafia, but we accomplished all our other goals for day 1. Good environment lots of productive disscussion.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 21:16 GMT
#979
Meh his reads aren't great. They were what caused me to lynch him.
Better to look at shady switches.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 22:15 GMT
#1009
My time is short for a while -- on phone no charger low battery.

Trfel why do you need my permission to speak to me? Just talk.
What is it you want?
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 22:17 GMT
#1012
Shapelog, a word of advice.

Focus on what matters.

Don't say everything that pops into your head. It's not all gonna be useful.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 22:23 GMT
#1016
On January 29 2016 07:19 Trfel wrote:
Eden, I really don't get why you're scumreading Ikidaromi. I feel that your case demonstrated some logical flaws in his play, but I don't know why this makes him mafia. Can you please explain this again?

No.

What parts didn't you understand? That post is long and I have no time right now to regurgitate it. Ask me specific questions that don't have open ended answers.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 28 2016 22:33 GMT
#1018
It is -- especially in absence of much explanation of his reads, going back and forth on a lot of people in your reads is basically tantamount to not having reads at all. It's even more prevalent among newer players, who if town may have reservations but will talk about their reads and explain themselves
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 29 2016 04:03 GMT
#1091
On January 29 2016 08:11 Shapelog wrote:
I am half way done with mine. I shall not look at the thread (or at least this page) till i post mine, to not get biased.

@Kush, You fucking saw what mafia did the last two mafia games i played in. They start by telling me not to spam or do shit then become the town leaders and procide to win the game with no votes on them passed d2.

Trust me, I have learn not to listen to that kinda of post because it always ends up with me accidentally pushing the god damm mafia agenda for the mafia. If Eden is town, then i take it into consideration post game.

no really, a large subset of your posts are obnoxious do-nothing posts that make it that much harder for me to invest the level of effort in this game that I know I should be bringing
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 29 2016 04:06 GMT
#1092
^^with that said, I read your vote analysis a couple pages back. sorta. really I skimmed it BUT the point is:

That was the type of post I want to see from you going forward. Constructive, high-effort, on-topic.

Do more of that. it's good.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 29 2016 04:19 GMT
#1095
Also, I'm going to elaborate on what I mean by newer mafia tending to post in the way that Ikidomari did. I cited something from Ver's analysis of Mafia XXX in discussing his post, but I don't think anybody bothered to go read it. I suppose I can't blame you if you didn't bother to go look yourself, but now I'm posting it so you have no excuse.

+ Show Spoiler +

On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote:



Day 1 Analysis:


Basically I'll point out the posts that are great for analysis, either finding reds or greens. In doing analysis most posts will be worthless, it's the gems you want to search for unless you want to do a full analysis profile on that person (dragging up all their posts and looking in context for patterns). That unfortunately takes a lot of time and thus can only be done on a few people at a time. Thus for those stretched on time, it's much easier to look for mistakes/bad posts and then do a thorough inspection of said person. That's how I'll present the red analysis.

Misder
:

Here is a great example of a mafia slipping up very obviously in day 1.

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 13:13 Misder wrote:
@Divenek I'll try to be as active as possible. I was better during the end of that last mafia game. At least I was right for my lynching targets

I'm not used to being active early game, so lets try this out. From my last two games, it seemed like we always tried to vote for inactives, except for the XXIII where town voted for a one liner mistake. We shouldn't do that. Because just because you make one mistake early doesn't mean you are mafia, just more likely. We should always be suspicious, but not impulsive. And the other game was where we had to vote for a mayor and a pardoner, so people had to talk.

As for strategies in the beginning... no idea. I'm still learning, (I still haven't done what you told me to do BC sorry!)


Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 15:45 Misder wrote:
xD I'm sorry! I'll try to post better, but for me, it's hard to post in the beginning of the game...

Vote count is:
(3) Bill Murray
(1) Divinek
(1) Misder
(1) Chezinu
(1) Youngminii

On August 06 2010 14:40 larjarse wrote:
BillMurray, right after he got his two "random" votes against him wrote:

I proclaim the Random Voting Stage hereby dead.
I am voting not for randomness,


An obvious reason to stick with my vote.


This leaves my suspicions on BM. If everyone randomized, BM would be more likely to get a higher vote count (due to already having 2 votes on him). I'm not voting yet though; don't want to be impulsive...


These are two posts full of flagrant errors. This is the first easy mafia catch the town could've had; let's go through it:

-Note the multiple apologies, excuses, the specific mention that he is still learning, and overall meek tone. Newer mafia players will try to emphasize their inexperience as a way of overcompensating. Think about this from the angle of being a townie: why would you want to say all this? What's the point in painting yourself to be some noob who is useless and shouldn't be listened to? If you want to be of use to the town, apologizing a bunch and acting all sorry for doing nothing wrong is hardly going to make yourself listened to. In fact, it will make people ignore you instead. Someone who can't even convince themself is hardly going to convince anyone else. That would be great for a mafia who wants to hide though, wouldn't it?

On that angle it makes perfect sense from the mafia's perspective. You want to find reasons that make you look less suspicious without looking like you are trying too hard to do so. See how Misder isn't even suspicious before this but he's trying to make himself look less suspicious. That's entirely mafia rationale. A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar. It's a very common pattern that I've seen many, many times.

[[Redacted from post; paragraph was a separate argument against Misder that is irrelevant to Ikidomari.]]

-Lastly, dock another point against Misder for his extremely mild statements about his suspicions and refusal to vote. Why would voting be impulsive?






Bolded for relevance. This is a very common tell for newer mafia players that's been generally true since the dawn of online mafia. You're welcome to disagree that these behaviors make him more likely than null to be mafia, or to think that this behavior is NAI, or what have you, but your opinion flies in the face of actual years of recorded evidence to the contrary.

In light of that, Trfel, I still do not understand what you struggle to see in my case, and I certainly do not understand why you felt the need to submit your concern with my case as this apparent grand enigma that makes you unable to understand what I'm doing this game. Such massive overstating of a simple difference of opinion as you "not being able to understand where [I'm] coming from this game," especially when I cite my publicly-viewable source of my tell for you to read, makes me suspicious of you -- you just look like you're trying to paint my argument as this completely unreasonable push and discredit my play this game for it, which sits very poorly with me.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 29 2016 17:50 GMT
#1150
Possible he just saw that it did him no favors to state his reads so passively and gave us the same thing with more definition. Or that he read new material and became more confident in his results. idk.

I don't think I would lynch Ikidomari at this point. The new reads list really cleaned up a lot of issues I had, but it didn't seem forced or anything. Also liked the discussion with noon.

I think I would not lynch these people at this point:
PepperMintTea
Alur
darthfoley
Ikidomari
_MexicanAlien
Shapelog

I would consider lynching these people, but would need a good reason:
nooniansoong

And I think these people are good lynches right now:
Tumblewood
JesusIncarnate
Trfel
Onegu

Notably, I would not lynch Trfel and Onegu, and think Trfel would be a better lynch than Onegu. Onegu wasn't doing much to be very "try-hard" or useful before his oog circumstances took over, and those two can't be mafia together.

noon hasn't really done all that much lately and it's starting to bother me a bit. he's still probably town, but I moved him out of my 'unlynchable' pile.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 29 2016 19:18 GMT
#1174
I would be an awful night 1 shot, hopefully the mafia agree with y'all instead of me
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 29 2016 20:08 GMT
#1199
On January 30 2016 05:01 Onegu wrote:
Oh eden is scum. I am allowed to use meta you are not.

He has a small filter. Go look at his town games when he was killed and the size of his filter then look at his scum games when he dies and the size of his filter.

This is a guy who can make a 40 page filter in a mini as town but doesnt ever go past 10 pages as scum.

You should probably look at games actually played after July 2015 when you use a metagame argument.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
January 29 2016 20:10 GMT
#1200
Oh man, I've been gone longer than I thought.

May 2015.

This is actually a great example of how not to use meta. Thanks for showing the newbies how it's not done.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
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