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Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 16:43 GMT
#807
On January 29 2016 01:39 nooniansoong wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 01:38 darthfoley wrote:
On January 29 2016 00:55 Alur wrote:
On January 29 2016 00:48 Kuragari42 wrote:
On January 28 2016 15:38 Ikidomari wrote:
Here's my last point in defense for now. If I was mafia, I'm most afraid of Eden and Darth, and people in the thread know that.
If I survive being lynched today, who dies in the night will pretty much confirm whether or not I'm mafia / town, and I'm an easy vote for day 2.


But.. I think that any mafia would consider NK'ing Eden, probably Darth as well. This really has little indication of your alignment.

Not to mention that the doc in this game might change up the NK a bit.

Rofl. What doc? How can you be sure this is setup A) or C)?


This is so god damn bad. Either you're doc and you just outed yourself, or you're mafia and let slip that we're playing either A or C. There's a 3/13 chance your mafia, there's a 1/13 chance you're doc. And you're scummy as hell

##Unvote
##Vote: Kuragari


OR he didn't understand the setup.

I consider this improbably. In any case I am completely willing to lynch a player who slips like that when I already have a scumread on him.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 16:46 GMT
#811
EBWOP: I consider this improbable.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 16:47 GMT
#813
Noon please answer the question you neglected to answer earlier:

On January 28 2016 09:20 Alur wrote:
Two questions for noon:

Can you explain or elaborate on why Trfel "looks solid to you"?

The post's in your filter that relate to Trfel go like this:
Show nested quote +
On January 28 2016 01:58 nooniansoong wrote:
trfel your questions are bad lol


Into

Show nested quote +
On January 28 2016 02:23 nooniansoong wrote:
On January 28 2016 01:31 Onegu wrote:
Trfel 100% scum. Confirmed now. You are welcome.


WHY


And.

Show nested quote +
On January 28 2016 08:04 nooniansoong wrote:
Trfel looks solid to me. Eden is scum though. I am almost sure of that.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 17:07 GMT
#826
On January 29 2016 01:49 nooniansoong wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 01:47 Alur wrote:
Noon please answer the question you neglected to answer earlier:

On January 28 2016 09:20 Alur wrote:
Two questions for noon:

Can you explain or elaborate on why Trfel "looks solid to you"?

The post's in your filter that relate to Trfel go like this:
On January 28 2016 01:58 nooniansoong wrote:
trfel your questions are bad lol


Into

On January 28 2016 02:23 nooniansoong wrote:
On January 28 2016 01:31 Onegu wrote:
Trfel 100% scum. Confirmed now. You are welcome.


WHY


And.

On January 28 2016 08:04 nooniansoong wrote:
Trfel looks solid to me. Eden is scum though. I am almost sure of that.


no. like i said before. get a majority of votes on either me or trfel then I might explain.

What? There is arguably some logic to not be willing to share scumreads.
But why are you incapable of elaborating on a townread? Like I really don't see how it could hurt town. If you genuinely believe someone is town, you have a vested interest in convincing town of your read. The most legitimate way of doing this is by giving reasons, which as a bonus reveals how you're thinking about the game.

You being incapable of providing reasons for townreading a player that many people find suspicious, makes sense if you're both mafia. You seem opposed to increasing the sum of knowledge publicly available to the town.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 17:08 GMT
#827
On January 29 2016 02:06 Kuragari42 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 00:55 Alur wrote:
On January 29 2016 00:48 Kuragari42 wrote:
On January 28 2016 15:38 Ikidomari wrote:
Here's my last point in defense for now. If I was mafia, I'm most afraid of Eden and Darth, and people in the thread know that.
If I survive being lynched today, who dies in the night will pretty much confirm whether or not I'm mafia / town, and I'm an easy vote for day 2.


But.. I think that any mafia would consider NK'ing Eden, probably Darth as well. This really has little indication of your alignment.

Not to mention that the doc in this game might change up the NK a bit.

Rofl. What doc? How can you be sure this is setup A) or C)?


Goof on my part. I just remember someone saying something about NK's being weird due to a doc.

Who said this and where?
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 17:24 GMT
#835
There are 3 mafia player and 1 doctor. If we assume that 1 of the 4 players is going to make the slip at some point, that player is going to be mafia 75% of the time.

Remember were disregarding that it's probably less likely for the doc to slip, and that several people are reading you as scum already.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 17:34 GMT
#842
On January 29 2016 01:52 nooniansoong wrote:
scumlist for brags

3. JesusIncarnate
4. Alur
10. Onegu
13. Shapelog

You're saying I opened up by bussing my fellow scum, while continuously being critical of his playstyle.

While also slightly leaning scum on Onegu, and stating that only 1 of Onegu and Trfel could be mafia. So even if I were to help getting Trfel lynched, it would put immense pressure on my scummate.

AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 17:41 GMT
#849
You're actually right. I had to do more than a cursory search on the terms to find them. So talking about the terms is NAI.
Although the point regarding how he only asked when it was brought up against him, suggests that he didn't care about understanding the thread that much while reading through it.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 17:43 GMT
#851
I keep forgetting to quote people when replying to them. I'll try and fix that.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 17:50 GMT
#853
On January 29 2016 02:40 Kuragari42 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 02:21 darthfoley wrote:
On January 29 2016 02:18 Kuragari42 wrote:
On January 29 2016 01:01 Alur wrote:
Yeah that's what I was insinuating. Another explanation is him making the slip as doc, but I'd think that's a lot less likely to happen than a scumslip. And even if both doctors and mafia are equally likely to make that slip its a 75% chance of being mafia (assuming this is not a townie who's extremely ignorant of the rules). The fact that he's already being scumread doesn't help either.


50/50 = 75/25
I enjoy that logic.

No clue what rule you could be referencing.


"Even if both doc/mafia are equally likely to make the slip" = each of the 4 people are equally likely to make a slip

there are 3 mafia + 1 doc = 4 people. 3/4 of those people are mafia; therefore, it is a 75% chance of lynching mafia IF you believe, like Alur and I do, that you slipped... especially when we have been scum reading you


Yeah, my bad.

Still no clue about the rule.

The rule we're referencing is the rule about how the game is played on 1 out of 4 possible setups.

Explained here by the host: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/502408-newbie-student-mafia-xix#2

AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 17:51 GMT
#855
On January 29 2016 02:35 nooniansoong wrote:
I think kura townslipped. Aka dumbtell

I assume you have no reasons or that you're not willing to share them.

AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 17:58 GMT
#858
On January 29 2016 02:50 Shapelog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 02:37 darthfoley wrote:
Welp, can't we find this out for sure when we try to lynch him? Claims, CCs and all that?

If he is Doc: well he just outed himself
If he is Vt and there is a Doc and he outs: We lose a Doc for a vt, Horrible
If he Is Scum, claims, and get CCed: We lose a doc for a scum, which is O.K. but considering how every successful heal adds a +1 to the needed mislynch counter

He's not gonna claim doc if he's VT.

Please Kura don't claim doc if you're VT.

If we trade we also get to talk to a confirmed town player before he get's lynched. I think I'm ok with trading doctor for a scum, especially when there's a 66% chance of it being a special mafia, and seeing that doctor is at risk of getting lynched anyways.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 18:02 GMT
#862
On January 29 2016 02:56 nooniansoong wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 02:51 Alur wrote:
On January 29 2016 02:35 nooniansoong wrote:
I think kura townslipped. Aka dumbtell

I assume you have no reasons or that you're not willing to share them.


If he were scum he would have known that there isn't definitely a doc. Instead he read something and misinterpreted it to mean there was a doc

On January 19 2016 00:28 LoneMeow wrote:
The mafia will be informed as to which setup is chosen, but the town will not!

If he's scum, and there is a doc, he knows that there is definitely a doc.
Are you trying to say that a mafia player would have studied the rules more closely?
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 18:05 GMT
#864
On January 29 2016 03:01 Shapelog wrote:
Did Kush just Dumbtell/Scum slip talking about Kura Scumslip/Dumbtell?

Nah.

If he said "there definitely isn't a doc" it would be a scumslip.

"there isn't definitely a doc" is a true statement.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 18:22 GMT
#873
On January 29 2016 03:06 Trfel wrote:
I mean, mechanically speaking:

The best play is to simply not talk about this any more and just not lynch Kuragari42.

The reason for this is that time will make this more clear than any amount of analysis, since in time more information about power roles is revealed. Further, talking about this more only gives mafia additional information.

Unless I'm misunderstanding the situation, which is also possible, I suppose.

He hasn't said anything that has made me want to not lynch him. He is still the best lynch in my opinion.
He failed to contribute with original opinions, his filter is short, and he scumslipped. But I would also not be completely opposed to lynching you, and maybe Ikidomari.

Mafia will only get additional information by people claiming, simply talking about Kuragari42 as a lynch option because of a possible scumslip (among other things), doesn't give mafia any info.

If you don't want to lynch Kura, who do you suggest we lynch? Or what do you want to talk about?
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 18:25 GMT
#875
Also Kura, if you're town aligned. This is where you try to help furthering towns agenda. If you're a townie who's about to get lynch, you at least need to get your most firm opinions off your chest.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 18:52 GMT
#880
On January 29 2016 03:27 Shapelog wrote:
Like we have a guy who In my mind scumslip or dumbtelled Doc.
Vs
A guy who came in with reads that contradicted each other (and bascailly everything in Eden case). And was given outs from Eden and Darth. Darth did explain why he did though, and make a good point. Might of been scum trying to save scum mate.

The thing I don't like about Eden's cases, is how much conviction he has behind some of his reads when he introduces them.
I also don't think Ikidokaris reads were contradictory, just vague or poorly explained.

#368:
"- Shapelog is obviously town, and the first thing I want to do when I get the motivation to read this game in detail (which will be tomorrow, hold me to this and don't let me be lazy) is to read the sequence of people scumreading him early while it was the "in" read to give, because I'm almost positive scum were involved in that."

Sidenote: I guess we forgot to hold him his promise and let him be lazy.

#671:
"This Ikidomari guy is basically lock scum, we can lynch him too."
It at least seems plausible that Ikidomaris post was the result of a nervous first time mafia player, being late to the thread. Which in turn makes Eden's case seems slightly opportunistic.

Alas, it could very well be that Eden is just a more confident player than I am.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 18:55 GMT
#882
EBWOP: Except for his Onegu read, that one is actually somewhat contradictory.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 18:59 GMT
#885
While I read up on the Tumblewood case.

Why wouldn't you be happy with Ikidomari?
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
Alur
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Denmark3900 Posts
January 28 2016 19:13 GMT
#897
On January 29 2016 04:04 Shapelog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2016 03:59 Alur wrote:
While I read up on the Tumblewood case.

Why wouldn't you be happy with Ikidomari?

Me?
Because he had so many escape paths,
Practically had a "Poor me, I fucked up and i should die" attitude
And Gave up instead of really trying to explain reads or push his scum reads. (Though, as a newbie, he might overprotect himself because he is being scum read as town. I did it my first game, but i was blue)

It was directed to PMT, my bad for being unclear. I am aware of your stance on Ikidomari.

However, if you're still unsure who to lynch, I think theres a higher chance of Kuragari42 being mafia, than Ikidomari.

Or phrased differently, I think its more likely that Ikidomari is a panicked newbie town, than Kuragari being a town who's playing scummy, has a short filter, and is doing dumbtells.

On that note.

Kuragari you are currently slated for being lynched. If nothing else, you must have some reads or an opinion of the current state of the game. If you're actually being incorrectly lynched right now, a town player should be able to gather some information based on how the bandwagon against you is developing

I can't justify not lynching him if he doesn't give a defense.
AKA No can Dazzle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlTpX7z3Pok
TL+ Member
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