EPTI don't have the time to do analysis of my own tonight, but I can respond and look at specific things if you want.
Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 12
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I don't have the time to do analysis of my own tonight, but I can respond and look at specific things if you want. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 01 2016 13:00 _MexicanAlien wrote: Basically every time that the thread is toxic, it's caused by town. Any game.Oh so like the scum are getting edgy because their teammate just got lynched, and now they want to promote useless talk. Makes sense, good thinking To both of you. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 01 2016 13:06 darthfoley wrote: I think that given Ikidomari's low activity, this isn't the best approach. Too many unknowns and too many ways that it could go wrong. Also, it's not hard for mafia to interact with teammates for shorter periods of time.@Trfel and others. I would prefer we start playing the association game, at least a little bit. People have been scolded for that earlier, but I don't think I've seen enough discussion regarding who Ikidomari town/scum read and when now that we've actually flipped scum. I also will do my research, but I think the best way to find remaining scum and do a thorough look at his filter, focusing on who Ikidomari seems 100% in disagreement with, or who he does not directly interact with. When I was mafia last game with kush, I had no idea how to naturally interact with him in the thread, and as a result my filter mentioning him was very slim. I find it likely that Ikidomari faced similar difficulties The best way to find mafia is always to look for mafia motivation. Tools like vote count analysis, night kill analysis, and association are beneficial, but they're tools. You still need to do the work yourself, and have the other tools supplement and fine-tune what you found through "standard" analysis. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 01 2016 13:16 darthfoley wrote: I'm bad at night kill analysis. There are too many variables.Did we ever ever a real discussion why Alur was killed and not me, or maybe even Eden? I was townread probably harder than Alur at the time, so the only thing I can think of is that 1) his reads were better than mine 2) mafia thought he was blue 3) both I can't remember if we just accepted his death as obvi NK, because it surprised me slightly. It could have been that they saw Alur as the biggest threat, it could have been a wifom attempt, it could have been because Alur's reads were crazy good, it could have been a medic dodge (  Eden), or other reasons. If you have any conclusions to draw from it, go for it, but I feel far, far more comfortable in my other reads. Especially in a newbie game I don't feel confident with night kill analysis in wide open circumstances like this, anyway. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
 Bad Eden I need to think about this more later. Anyway, @Eden and darthfoley, what do you think about what I brought up about here? Possible association between Tumblewood and Ikidomari. + Show Spoiler [@darth] + To clarify, I'm not saying never to use nk analysis and association. I'm saying that if you do so, do it very carefully, because it's so so easy to get incorrect conclusions. You need to consider every possibility, and that a possibility can exist, however unlikely, that points to the wrong thing and just makes your conclusions completely wrong. Including simply "mafia didn't think of this", even if it was the correct thing. I'm more than willing to discuss, but I don't feel like your generalized statements of what is mafia indicative were correct for why I explained. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
What do you mean by saying that you haven't liked my approach this game? Both so I can know what I'm doing wrong, and to help me understand your read on me. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Especially in a setup like this, and we're presuming there is a doctor instead of a veteran. The godfather is useless, and the roleblocker is only good if it hits the doctor the same night where mafia is targeting the doctor's save. AKA barely useful. I actually feel that often, bussing the roleblocker because they're the roleblocker is better than saving the roleblocker because they're the roleblocker ^^ | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm getting too tired for analysis and I'll probably go to bed soon. Good night. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
However, I'm assuming you've seen his filter length. I'm a strong believer in the filter length argument. This is more posting than nooniansoong's shown as town, and FAR more than as mafia. And there's a strong direction to his posts, too. His most recent scum game seemed pretty roll over and die, correct me if I'm wrong? It's possible he could go Superman mode here, but how likely is it really? I'll look at your post again, and I probably should read his filter since I haven't actually yet, but for now I feel like filter length and his direction alone makes him town. Yeah, I need sleep, I'll think about it when I'm awake. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 01 2016 14:44 Eden1892 wrote: Okay, okay, I'll look into it. But tomorrow. I'm going to bed right when I finish this post.It was pretty roll over and die, but there were a couple of key factors accounting for that difference: 1. One of his teammates just rolled over and died day 1. We lynched the mafia rb with all of, what, 3-4 votes? 2. He was involved in another down-to-the-wire game as town which took all his attention. He kinda mailed in the last scum game to focus on the close game occurring simultaneously. And I don't think filter length is that big a deal, although I'm also open to just being wrong about kush altogether. I just don't think filter length would be the reason why. After all, you argue that his filter length is an aberration compared to both his town and his scum games -- this makes me think filter length is less indicative of anything than it normally would be. (Obviously, it being longer than normal tends to be a reason to think he's town. But I'm more concerned that it's an aberration here, as I think that should also make the heuristic of comparing filter length to previous games weaker than normal.) As for a strong direction... is there? He has one concerning you being mafia (as part of his team theory he keeps pushing) and me being town. There's not really a whole lot else. In fact I don't think his direction is all that strong; he's repeatedly said he's indifferent to which of his scum reads we lynch. I don't see it being outside of mafia range. I don't get your Superman question. Why is it unlikely that he would, and why would this effort even be particularly Herculean? He hasn't actually had to do a whole lot this game. He wasn't a key factor in either lynch, which is important when you consider how relatively involved you say he is, based on filter length. I guess the big thing for me is that I used some of the same arguments against him last game and ended up being wildly wrong. Like, I used that exact same argument about the post count being so far from the normal last game that it was even suspicious for that, haha. I get that I'm bad but I still try not to scumread someone for the same thing when I was just wrong on that very thing the game before... I really didn't think about the two games at once thing, though. I need to read his filter. Good night. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 01 2016 14:48 darthfoley wrote: 1. RB on the doctor is unlikely, doesn't hurt mafia to hold RBIf kush is mafia, he lied about being rb'd. What's the long term motivation? It wouldn't simply be to gain some insta town cred, would it? You would fake rb claim to make town view the game in a way it shouldn't, right? 2. If there's a veteran, obviously no one is alive to claim RB cause you RB the nk 2 is pretty stupid for mafia to go for if there is no veteran, but I could see 1. Never seen it done before, but not that much reason why not to. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 02 2016 00:08 Shapelog wrote: Additional time for discussion is much more valuable than potentially a worse mafia night kill.Guys As much as i love the bashing and the arguing. It is prob. giving mafia information and slash or helping them pick a NK (in the case they know the setup has a doc in it, and therefore is either trying to RB doc or Medic douge) Food for thought. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
[QUOTE]On February 02 2016 00:32 Shapelog wrote: [QUOTE]On February 02 2016 00:22 nooniansoong wrote: Personally (I am going to spoil this part of my Behavior post), I think Tumbledore is more mafia. But i would not rule out S2S. However, from a behavior stand point. Tumble is more mafia. You could buy me over. But a lot of what i need to see is S2S posting. [/QUOTE] S2S posting is not gonna happen. If it does it's not going to be anything you can get a read off of. That's the scumteam's plan. That's why trfel is making the argument "we only have 1 mislynch left, we can't lynch an unknown." OH really? So it's better to save him until mylo? Can you point to a succinct case against tumble I can respond to?[/QUOTE]No, that's not my argument. You can't lynch him for the sole reason being because he's an unknown, because that's really stupid for obvious reasons. Doing that on Day 1 is pretty stupid IMO, much less after. And this is what people were advocating, so yes, stating this was necessary. Despite however obvious it may seem. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On October 04 2015 06:22 Half the Sky wrote: Day 2 Recall List coolTLname (9): raynpelikoneet, sicklucker, The Shining (1): Rels (1): coolTLname GlowingBear (0): | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I've demonstrated a very large flaw in a stupid and non-reasoned argument. What else is necessary? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Why do you assume that there is one remaining newbie and one more experienced player on the mafia team? Last time I played in a newbie game, the mafia team was three veterans. Also, why do you assume that the other newbie mafia (assuming that there is exactly one) has behavior/personality like Ikidomari? First of all, you're getting into personality, not behavior, so LOL everyone has their own personality, regardless of alignment. Second, people play in different ways, for example as mafia I've tended to be fairly aggressive. Even in my first game ever as mafia. Which is drastically different from Ikidomari's play here. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 02 2016 04:15 Shapelog wrote: Argument: Trfel can't possibly read JesusIncarnate/scott31337 as townExplaining how you demonstrated a very large flaw in a stupid and non-reasoned argument? Sorry i am a blind person. Answer: I've explained why I read JesusIncarnate/scott31337 as a town lean, you can look in my filter for the reasons. And just because you don't agree doesn't mean that I'm wrong, as demonstrated by the above game, where every other town (except of course the person being scumread) thought that that player was scum. It happens. Argument: Trfel can't possibly defend JesusIncarnate/scott31337 if he's town, that makes no sense Answer: First, it does make sense, and I've explained why, you can see this in my filter. And there is at least one lynch out there that has lots of reasons going for it, not just "this guy hasn't done much". Which is Tumblewood, in case you are somehow wondering. Second, I've done this before as well. I'm not saying that I'm necessarily 100% right on JesusIncarnate/scott31337, but some of the accusations against me are extremely stupid. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 02 2016 04:19 Shapelog wrote: The problem with your argument is that it makes zero sense.I explain that in part 1 why i think there is one newbie and one experience player. and why they have similar behavior. First of all, this is a newbie game. Which puts one extremely large flaw in your argument. I hope you can figure it out, because I can't spell it out for you. Second, you make a darn lot of assumptions that, not only are they not guaranteed to be true, are very unlikely to be true. Like your Alur nightkill analysis. Nightkilling Alur to try and get mafia!Ikidomari townread for something he said before the night phase is probably among the stupider plans I've ever heard of mafia using. And if mafia has an experienced player, they wouldn't do something that stupid. There are plenty of wonderful reasons to night kill Alur, that isn't one of them. | ||
| ||
