Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 11

On January 29 2016 11:19 Trfel wrote:
Okay, I finished my analysis. I think that the mafia team is Tumblewood, Onegu, and Eden1892.

I will be attempting to use a new posting style from now on.

Tumblewood is mafia because:

• Inconsistencies in his reads as if he doesn't actually believe his reads
  
• Constantly scumreads the people that everyone else is already scumreading
  
• No interest in actually lynching mafia, it doesn't seem like he actually cares about his scumreads

Onegu is mafia because:

• Lots of commenting, but the comments have no purpose
  
• Most of his filter has no direction

Eden1892 is mafia because:

• Continually votes for weak reasons, even when he admits as much
  
• Not very invested in lynching mafia, particularly around this post where he says that he's fine with basically all of the wagons and then a few posts later, asks everyone to stop lynching lynch bait and to lynch mafia instead

I'm pretty confident in Tumblewood and Onegu, but I'm not as confident in Eden1892.

On January 28 2016 19:38 Trfel wrote:
I'm not townreading him very strongly, but it's a slight read still.

Ikidomari has been very open about feeling behind and not skilled enough. To me, this feels towny. In general, when mafia isn't skilled enough, they don't try and just give up. Ikidomari's play hasn't shown this at all. Instead, he feels relaxed and natural.

His posts have felt free-flowing, and I don't think that the inconsistencies disrupt the flow of his reads from a town perspective. I realize that this is very subjective.

I also feel that he's raised a few decent points that aren't so obvious. This is also subjective, though. In general, I don't like to lynch people because I don't have a good reason to townread them; if I can't show that they are scum, I don't want to lynch them. And I personally don't feel like I can show that Ikidomari is scum right now.

On January 28 2016 19:42 Trfel wrote:
If you really want me to respond to Eden1892's post, I don't think that reads like "I think that this person is town, but they could be scum because of this" are mafia indicative. This often comes from townies who can't make up their mind, especially in newbie games. Ikidomari also does arrive at conclusions. His reads are more like "I think that this person is this alignment because of this, but I could be wrong because of this, but I think he's more likely this alignment", which feels like a reasonable approach for him to have. To me, it feels more like he's thinking about the game and is just unsure instead of trying to avoid pinning himself to his reads.

On January 30 2016 10:36 Trfel wrote:
Does anyone else think that Ikidomari's post is towny?

I just have a hard time seeing mafia being that baffled, or that uninformed. Or, presuming that nooniansoong is town, that skeptical (since they did actually roleblock nooniansoong). And that doesn't feel like the reaction of mafia who just caught the doctor who outed for no gain.

On January 31 2016 13:15 Trfel wrote:
Ikidomari is mafia because of his large amount of apologies early on in the game. His activity also fits mafia motivation, instead of displaying a desire to solve the game. There are also several inconsistencies in his play. One example of this is that he repeatedly says that he is a good lynch because he is a weak player.But, the third statement doesn't match. Town doesn't say "lynch me, you should lynch me, but here's some defense". Town will, in rare circumstances, ask to be lynched and/or vote for themselves, but there is always some sort of possible town motivation behind it (generally proving that their scumreads are genuine). Here, there is none of this. He's asking to be lynched and asking to survive at the same time, which makes him mafia.

One other thing to look at is how Ikidomari has been playing after the Day 1 lynch. He posted analysis, fine. He didn't have time before the lynch, so he didn't push anything or stay up to date, fine. He comes back and posts analysis, fine. Here's what else happens. Eden, arguably the person most vocally scumreading him, townreads him. Then he leaves, and comes back later with this weird post, which caused Shapelog and I to say that it was a bit towny. Then, once we said that, he just vanished. No push, no reads, no updates, just gone. And he hasn't returned since. This is extremely mafia motivated, because he's playing to survive, instead of push mafia.

Ikidomari is my most confident scumread, I'm nearly positive that he is mafia.