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On January 29 2016 09:41 Superbia wrote:
I'm going to work a bit on my d&d campaign.
Keir, Disfo, Tictock, Copcake and The Shining, I want you guys to name the 3-4 scum you believe are left in this game. Give some reason but don't make it too long. Before EoN or you may get shot. TY.
This still stands btw.
I'm out. Night. :D
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Shooting disfo. Will be back in 1hr+.
Rels only protect 3 if you have >3 charges.
Let's go good flips.
See you guys tomorrow.
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How the fuck did Mafia even dare to KP Koshi.
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Man, this really fucking makes me iffy on rels.
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I'm also super tired with a headache because of alcohol + battlestar galactica board game + EDH evening so I'll be peacing out soon.
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First shot to go through, first hit.
100% PR effectiveness in all games.
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Oh man. Why did Koshi have to die. =/ That's such a mindfuck if rels is town.
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Really want to see copcake flip bc of the GB info tbh. Not sure if this is true, but I feel like if GB was town it makes copcake likely mafia. Hedging is for pussies but meh. Want info.
Will revisit this thought when my mind is clearer tomorrow.
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On January 30 2016 10:26 Palmar wrote:
It's super tempting to flip copcake just to know what gb was
Yes.
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On January 30 2016 10:25 Palmar wrote:
I just want to point out how much shit town would be in if we didn't have my godlike reads this game.
Less shit if people (including town) weren't effectively blocking my fucking shots until n3.
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Ok time to sleep. Mafia super worthless btw.
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Some good logic being thrown around, think we can possibly solve the game today. But..
Can someone explain to me why we're assuming disfo did not kill keir?
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? It actually brings you back on the discussion board rels. 
We know there that it's likely 1v1 mafia today. We know it's likely (imo), that disfo carried the KP for his team yesterday.
So:
- Assuming disfo was in team A:
SL, Copcake and ticktock are never on team B.
Which translate to only 1 mafia at most in that group.
So for sure at least 1 mafia in:
- Myself
- Rels
- Palmar
- The Shining
I honestly think it's 1 and it's the shining at this point, but I have backup KP in case.
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Reason Rels is not confirmed is because while he is on Palmar's Arrow list with Keir, we don't know who disfo hit.
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I think we really need to hit today, but it's fucking impossible to calculate this game.
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Like I went over some scenarios where we miss (and assuming it's 5v1v1), and me shooting seems like the best option, but it's still really bad.
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Actually let me propose the best course of action imo. I'm going to assume 5v1v1, since if we miss-lynch here in 4v2v1 I think we need to depend on mafia hitting mafia. I haven't actually gone over this world in depth, because tbh I don't want to live in this world (and I also don't think it would matter as to our lynch today).
So:
1. We lynch the shining today.
1a. We miss:
- It's 4v1v1.
1a-1 I shoot & miss:
- it's 2v1v1.
- If we have my shot in this scenario we have a lynch and a shot to hit exactly both of the mafia. Shit situation but doable if you assume I'm not the mafia. THEREFORE: Rels has to NOT be mafia, else I die during the night. Actually it's a super fucked up/interesting situation because we can literally still win going into the night in a 1v1v1. But eh? I think lynching + me hitting is the best chance we have in this scenario. If miss then I'm going into the night with 2 mafia and it's going to be WIFOM who shoots who all the way. Kind of offtrack here with thoughts but this would be a super silly but cool ending. I'd probably hold my shot.
- My argument was going to be that I have to shoot rels if we miss on the shining due to the fact that rels would never save me as mafia but 2v1v1 without a second KP from town actually means that town has to lynch town or sleep. Me dying makes Rels confirmed mafia so the other mafia would likely kill him during that night then. And town would have to hope mafia kills each other so lynching town in that scenario is actually best.
- Anyway I'd probably shoot Rels over palmar anyway at this point so whatever.
1a-2 I shoot & hit:
- 3v1. Pretty good. If I'm still alive we lynch that day + shot. Else sleep.
1a-3 I shoot & overlap with KP:
Meh? Some info for next day.
1b. We hit:
5v1
- Good shit
- I hold my shot I think
postnight- 4v1
- I should still be alive
- Lynch + my shot
2v1 worst case. I.e. 3 lynches. EZ.
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Think that checks out. Bit rambly towards the LYLO components of this game (which are when statistically played, fucking hilarious).
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EPT
