[M][N] Unoriginal Name Mini Mafia - Page 4

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Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 22:55 GMT

#895

On January 12 2016 07:53 Koshi wrote:
Why is mderg town Eden?

On January 12 2016 07:54 Koshi wrote:
Ohyeah nvm. I know why he is town. LoL

mderg is town boys.

On January 12 2016 07:54 Koshi wrote:
"likely town"

gr8 talk fam

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 22:58 GMT

#896

Remember fam... we can work backwards.

I'm dead = there is a medic.
I'm alive = there is no medic because we know I'm town.

[image loading]

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:03 GMT

#898

Wow awesome I don't even have to be paranoid anymore! Thanks mafia!

Mafia for sure don't have a medic and no one else died in the night. Seems to point to Setup A which means someone we suspect is probably a freeroll townie. God Bless America

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:05 GMT

#900

Omg we get a cop too? Christmas was over two weeks ago! What's going on here??

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:05 GMT

#901

On January 12 2016 08:05 GiygaS wrote:
Time to claim. I'm cop checked tube sock he was mafia. Now back to work!

I crossposted with this.

I also don't believe this for one second.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:11 GMT

#902

Some possibilities:

(1) Tubesock was framed. GiygaS is a real cop, but claimed immediately like a donkey.
This I believe highly. Also puts us in Setup A which is where I thought we might be based on nightkill.

(2) Tubesock is actually mafia. GiygaS is a real cop, but claimed immediately like a donkey.
I doubt this.

(3) GiygaS is fakeclaiming.
Seems very bold. I kinda doubt this with the mafia being down to two people. If there is a cop to counterclaim GiygaS then the mafia trades 1-for-1 at a very bad time for them to be doing so. If we're in Setup D and there is no cop or doctor, then GiygaS has to explain for the rest of his life why he didn't die that night when the mafia have no way to stop his scans except killing him.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:15 GMT

#906

On January 12 2016 08:14 GiygaS wrote:
Am I not supposed to immediately claim of I find red?

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:17 GMT

#908

On January 12 2016 08:16 Tubesock wrote:
It seems amazingly stupid to fakeclaim here. Town has too many mlynches available to make it worth a 1v1

Agree. I think you were framed and we are in Setup A.

Or you are good at the mafia. Either one. But I think it's A

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:20 GMT

#911

On January 12 2016 08:15 GiygaS wrote:
And why would mafia frame tube when most people said they thought he was town again.

He's a good target for a cop check because of all the controversy around him and the divergent opinions about him in the town. Controversial figure, likely check, makes him an easy choice to be framed.

Honestly don't even understand this question. What is the profile of a likely frame target in your eyes?

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:20 GMT

#912

On January 12 2016 08:19 Tubesock wrote:
I'm not sure if that hurts me in my feeling or not.

Lol I didn't say you were bad. Just that you played pretty good if you are mafia.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:23 GMT

#914

On January 12 2016 08:18 GiygaS wrote:

Show nested quote +

And this is where I learn I suck at this game even more than I thought

we've all done it my friend!

But yes in the future, please question your guilty check and extract more reads out of them first. It also gives people more time to say stuff about your check.

Think about it like this. Your role, when you hit a guilty, basically reads like this: "You may switch the lynch to a guaranteed mafia today, but the day will end immediately when you do so."

When would you do this? As late as possible in the day, to maximize the amount of discussion pre-flip, and thus find more data to detect the mafia.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:26 GMT

#921

On January 12 2016 08:22 Koshi wrote:
A: 8 VT, 1 Cop, 1 Named VT, 1 Framer, 1 Roleblocker, 1 Goon
B: 8 VT, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, 1 Roleblocker, 1 Godfather, 1 Goon

If there is a named vt, there is a framer, and we might not have mafia. But I never seen a framer not frame mafia.
If there is a doctor, we got mafia.

You think mafia wouldn't frame Tubesock there?

I agree that framing a mafia to be innocent is probably more optimal, but Tubesock seems like a pretty straightforward case to me for framing a townie guilty.

Related: If there's a doctor does he just claim sometime today? Without a roleblocker, even if doctor dies immediately, we get one more free scan. And as long as the doctor is someone that's not obvious town, the mafia is forced to shoot two more players that they normally would never shoot, which means two more days of working with a very limited pool of possible mafia.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:29 GMT

#925

Agreed that Named VT should be claiming today. We can help sort out setup today and get another freeroll townie check.

And yeah, normally mafia do frame themselves innocent, instead of trying to outguess the cop. I just think that this might be a situation where outguessing the cop is actually somewhat viable.

But mainly I just want to believe I was right about Tubesock. Lol

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:33 GMT

#931

Oh good point. Bummer.

I am VT

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:33 GMT

#933

On January 12 2016 08:32 Tubesock wrote:
When town has essentially 4 confirmed town, and unlynchable Eden, why wouldn't you frame me? It's not that ballsy. Especially since GF is still alive.

???

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 11 2016 23:39 GMT

#940

On January 12 2016 08:35 scott31337 wrote:
Nobody died? Nice

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 12 2016 00:15 GMT

#952

On January 12 2016 08:54 mderg wrote:
I think Eden claimed named vt but I'm not sure because his earlier posts suggest that he isn't

I claimed Vanilla Town

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 12 2016 01:44 GMT

#974

I dunno man, I'm probably way wrong but I feel like going deep on this Tubesock-got-Framed theory.

Especially now that we know there is no GF and Tubesock's comment wasn't a lucky slip.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 12 2016 02:50 GMT

#985

On January 12 2016 08:58 darthfoley wrote:

Show nested quote +

On January 12 2016 07:48 Eden1892 wrote:

On January 12 2016 07:22 darthfoley wrote:

On January 12 2016 07:05 Eden1892 wrote:
Updated thoughts from everybody's favorite townie.

I think Tubesock is town. I am not sure if GiygaS is town or mafia. Very willing to entertain that the argument was between two townies, am 100% sure it wasn't two mafia. If this isn't obvious to anyone at this point, I can elaborate, but I think Tubesock's posting throughout this phase speaks for itself. He had a mediocre/bad start, but that doesn't mean very much, and his recovery has me sold.

+ Show Spoiler [For Eden] +

Don't bother reading this, I was gonna do this but then I saw the stuff about darthfoley and found more interesting stuff to talk about. Typing all this with html tags was a bitch so I'm keeping this here for later.

Following from that, some vote count analysis. I'm filling in my reads as green and flipped boxerfred as red. I will keep my reads limited to the ones I think are uncontroversial so as to limit the number of leaps needed to accept my premises.

Vote Count (16.5 hours)

Tubesock (4): Eden1892, Koshi, GiygaS, darthfoley
slOosh (2): GGTeMpLaR, VayneAuthority
VayneAuthority (1): nooniansoong
Koshi (1): boxerfred
GiygaS (1): Tubesock

(9.5 hours)
Vote Count

Tubesock (3): Koshi, GiygaS, darthfoley
VayneAuthority (2): nooniansoong, slOosh
GiygaS (2): Tubesock, Eden1892
slOosh (1): VayneAuthority
Koshi (1): boxerfred
boxerfred (1): GGTeMpLaR
nooniansoong (1): Raynpelikoneet

(1.5 hours)
Unofficial Vote Count

Tubesock (3): Koshi, GiygaS, Raynpelikoneet
VayneAuthority (2): nooniansoong, slOosh
GiygaS (2): Tubesock, Eden1892
boxerfred (2): GGTeMpLaR, mderg
slOosh (1): VayneAuthority
Koshi (1): boxerfred

(1 hour)
Official Vote Count

Tubesock (4): Koshi, GiygaS, Raynpelikoneet, darthfoley
boxerfred (3): GGTeMpLaR, mderg, slOosh
GiygaS (2): Tubesock, Eden1892
VayneAuthority (1): nooniansoong
slOosh (1): VayneAuthority
Koshi (1): boxerfred

(Final)
Final Vote Count

boxerfred (3): GGTeMpLaR, slOosh, Koshi
Tubesock (2): GiygaS, darthfoley
GiygaS (2): Tubesock, Eden1892
nooniansoong (2): raynpelikoneet, mderg
VayneAuthority (1): nooniansoong
slOosh (1): VayneAuthority
Koshi (1): boxerfred

On January 11 2016 01:45 darthfoley wrote:
Good morning

I like the way Tubesock has defended himself over the past 3-4 pages so i'm ##unvoting for now.

On January 11 2016 05:28 darthfoley wrote:
Given how this Tubesock/GiygaS has progressed, i'm more confident in my vote for VA. He hasn't posted anything recently, and I find very little substance in what he has posted. I'm with you on this one sloosh

##Vote: VayneAuthority

On January 11 2016 06:28 darthfoley wrote:
I read through VA's filters from the previous two games and I see what rayne is saying. VA's D1 posts are consistently not substantive as town.

I don't see any sense in considering Rayne as a better lynch than Noonian on D1, so I'm back on Tubesock.

##Unvote

darthfoley: What changed in between these posts for you? You retracted your vote on Tubesock about 6.5 hours before the lynch, saying that you were satisfied with Tubesock's defense of himself. You even felt that your argument on Vayne was better for the matter, since it didn't try to resolve a confusing situation between GiygaS and Tubesock.

But then just a few hours later, you say that because Vayne is "consistently not substantive as town" on D1, you're back to voting Tubesock? Even though you were satisfied with his defense?

What changed is that I went back and looked at Tubesock vs. GiygaS again. As GiygaS pointed out, Tubesock had basically only provided one read of substance (exluding posts like, "I like darth because his posts feel towny") the entire day: GiygaS. I also realized that his case of GiygaS regarding "our reads are the same but he says it's weird" is actually quite easily explained... because my original post that GiygaS quoted explained his reasoning in full.

So you reread Tubesock's posts, after your unvote, and found that Tubesock had only given one read all day?

That's odd. How much reading did you really do? Because before you even unvoted, Tubesock had plenty to say about other people in the game:

On January 11 2016 00:47 Tubesock wrote:

On January 11 2016 00:40 Koshi wrote:
VA, Boxerfred, Sloosh need to be lynched if Tubesock isnt' happening.

Kush is a terrible lynch.
Giygas is just not mafia.

Tubesock is fucking hard to read.

I'm onboard for the Boxerfred or Kmatt lynch. VA is an ok enough lynch. He'd be number 4 though.

Noon is a terrible lynch. I'd lynch Rayne before Noon.

I don't know how to help you with a meta read, but if you have some other questions I'm around because apparently I'm not sleeping for awhile.

On January 11 2016 01:56 darthfoley wrote:
Right now I'm most suspicious of GiygaS or VA for a red D1 lynch, but I'd also like to hear the case on boxerfred

I also question that you went back and reread the initial case Tubesock gave, as if you had, you would have noticed that GiygaS did not quote you in his original post. Tubesock filled in the posts from you to explain his case.

Would you care to resolve these discrepancies?

I said he only posted one read of substance. Regarding the reads you quoted, I explained at the time that it didn't make sense to consider Noon more towny than Rayne at that point in the game. I think being "onboard" for boxerfred or Kmatt is pretty safe at that point in the voting process, especially because at this time it was 4 to 3 for Tubesock vs. Boxerfred. Would've been tied 4/4 if he changed from GiygaS to Boxerfred. Boxerfred hadn't been very active and you would get lots of town cred if you supported a correct lynch day 1. I mean we've already confirmed town everyone who voted for Boxerfred, so losing an inactive mafia isn't the end of the world if it basically makes you an unlynchable for a while.

However, people then jumped off the Tubesock wagon and he didn't need to do this, while still getting towncred for being "okay" with a boxerfred lynch and consistency for sticking with GiygaS.

GiygaS didn't directly quote me, but he basically did "not much more to say on him that darth already hasn't"

That's great and all, but at the end of the day, you're not explaining why it is that Tubesock's posting, which was essentially unchanged between your unvote and your subsequent vote, no longer was townie enough for you. You've just gone in after being called on it and basically said some things that, if true, were already true of Tubesock before you unvoted.

Like if you felt his reads weren't substantive enough, that's fine, but you either decided that they were substantive enough when you unvoted him (as that was the reason you voted him initially), or you unvoted him despite them not being substantive enough. Either way there's a glaring discrepancy that your explanation fails to satisfy.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 12 2016 08:48 GMT

#999

Tubesock is basically only mafia with kush or somebody mindfucking us. TS has Scott as #2 lynch, darth as #1 lynch, has Vayne already committing to lynching him even though the possibility of a framer is being discussed.

Is the game that straightforward? Ray dies because he's onto kush who is the only mafia on the team that's not under heavy pressure?

Or... On the other hand.

Why did we successfully hit mafia scan with a framer in the game?

If Tubesock is town we discussed why mafia might go for the good and frame him guilty.
But if Tubesock is mafia. Why would you ever not frame him town?? Is he not an obvious copcheck regardless of alignment?

Again the only thing I can think of is that mafia went all-in to protect the third member who's less on the radar. They had framer and if Tubesock is mafia, they HAD to frame the other guy inno. Then they shot ray who could have been argued as scum over 3-4 confirmed town. Shot screams protection of the 3rd player.

I think the right play here is probably lynch Tube, if he flips mafia lynch kush. If he flips town lynch darth.

Weird thing though. I think darth is mafia with only Scott or kush as well. Darth and Tube are definitely not a scum team. Vayne's n1 push on darth is strange -- could be distancing but that's a very disproportionately large effort from Vayne just to do something that doesn't advance mafia agenda.

So basically I got:

Tubesock/kush
darthfoley/kush
darthfoley/Scott

kush/scott could also work IF neither Tube not darth are mafia. I really doubt they are both town though.

If Scott could just be obvtown we could solve this...

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[M][N] Unoriginal Name Mini Mafia - Page 4

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