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On January 04 2016 07:43 Trfel wrote:
Palmar, why did you decide that nooniansoong is town?
What exactly made you think that Onegu and Damdred are not good lynches today, I'm having trouble understanding what you're getting at.
That post regarding kush was sarcastic. He is still a good lynch, mostly for basically TMI on me. There is no way kush suddenly became better at figuring out alignments than those other people.
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On January 04 2016 07:43 Trfel wrote:
Palmar, why did you decide that nooniansoong is town?
What exactly made you think that Onegu and Damdred are not good lynches today, I'm having trouble understanding what you're getting at.
I was just writing it up
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I'm not going to do too much before I sleep, but this is my updated worldview, I'll throw in explanations for some tomorrow, but cba writing a long post now. Refer to some of my other posts for reasoning etc (some are out of date):
Probably town for some reason:
Coag
Onegu
Damdred
Exo
Trfel
ritoky
No idea:
sl
OO
Shining
OWS
slam
Scummy for some reason:
kush
gb
nocturnmage
Some guys I want to say something about
a) I could lynch slam, I never try to read him, I always rely on other people to do it for me. However his rage a bit out of character (he's almost always fairly jolly) so there's that.
b) I was somehow under the impression shining had replaced into the game, but turns out he's been here the whole time. I don't remember literally a single thing he's written, which makes him a pretty good candidate for mafia
c) I might have to downgrade ritoky, my previous townread from yesterday was mostly due to the fact he wrote a case on someone I thought would flip mafia (I think I made that point to HF). I haven't read more from him. The shot was ok though, moosy could very well have flipped mafia. It was the right way to use vigilante.
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On January 04 2016 07:53 Trfel wrote:
Palmar, given how Tictock didn't claim his role despite barely avoiding being lynched Day 1, why would you expect mafia to rolecop him?
I'd think that they'd barely prefer rolechecking Tictock to rolechecking themselves.
You don't think that Onegu can be mafia for the WIFOM play?
sure, but it can simply go wrong in too many ways for mafia. And yes, I agree it's super unlikely mafia rolechecked tt (although I hadn't thought of the part where he didn't claim on day 1, that's a good point) and then went after him.
It's just not that likely he goes for a big play to kill a random player who is in most cases going to flip vanilla like that.
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On January 04 2016 07:55 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 07:47 Palmar wrote:
I promised to talk about the onegu/damdred thing.
There is no way they're both mafia. The reason for this is that they both look bad when tictock flips. It's too much invested into getting one random guy lynched. Even if mafia knew he was a role. IF mafia knows he's a role (rolecop) only damdred can be mafia (and not onegu) because there is no way onegu claims a red on him as mafia, knowing he'll just claim blue and will never be cc'd. We also know (from the nightkills on n2) that mafia had not at day 2 hit any townies with the rolecop (JK/Cop is autokill and the masons are already outed). So, either the mafia rolecop missed, or it hit tt, in which case only damdred can be mafia.
On the other hand, if mafia had no idea what tt's role was, onegu can be mafia, and if he is, damdred is almost certainly not, because people (like myself) were actively calling for the gunsmith not to CC tictock. The only problem with this theory is why would onegu go 1 for 1 on someone whose role he doesn't know and who is so scummy that people were literally mad that he didn't get lynched on day 1. It's just not worth it.
So, technically it's more likely damdred is mafia, but I really, really think they're both town. For the Onegu theory, isn't it possible an RC that isn't Damdred RCd TT and it was shared in scum QT? If Onegu is a goon, him going 1 for 1 to eliminate the GS before a 2nd gun is given out makes total sense.
No, because if mafia knows tt is gunsmith, they expect tt to just instantly claim that when onegu claims his red check, and when he's not counterclaimed by anyone, Onegu gets lynched for trying to lynch an uncc'd gunsmith. Mafia could not have guessed tictock would fumble around, claim miller and then gunsmith.
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which is why, technically, damdred has more chance of being scum, because at least it is in theory an okay play as mafia to fake-claim gunsmith to seal a lynch everyone agrees is the right one.
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Trfel, I seem to recall most of the reason for your scumread being that I'm playing more seriously than in some two other games. You should probably ignore that. I play all sorts of town games. In general, doing bits (tunneling super hard, split personalities, elaborate schemes, fabulous speeches etc) takes time, of which I haven't had much (it's the holidays) this game.
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Like I know this does not matter to you guys.
But there is 100% no way that kush, for two days in a row or something, is right about my alignment when rayn/artanis/hf/damdred/koshi/trfel and the list goes on are wrong.
Literally the only other person I remember actually calling me town is rsoultin. (I think she did). It's really annoying, but it's also glaringly obvious.
Kush either knows I'm town (cop) or he's scum.
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On January 04 2016 08:09 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 08:07 Damdred wrote:
But you are cherry picking to a degree trfel. You wave dark tournament around but then ignore his most recent game of,nutcracjer where he didn't Carr about the d1 lynch but turned it on d2.
I'm not sure it makes him town or scum though Oh, I didn't realize that he played in that game. I'll take a look. You expect town to not care about lynches? You expect town to not care about finding mafia?
exhibit 1: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/500627-outlaw-mini-mafia?user=coagulation
in short, yes.
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Damdred, before night 2 (ie d1, n1 and d2) why did you think I am mafia?
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On January 04 2016 08:12 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 08:07 Palmar wrote:
Trfel, I seem to recall most of the reason for your scumread being that I'm playing more seriously than in some two other games. You should probably ignore that. I play all sorts of town games. In general, doing bits (tunneling super hard, split personalities, elaborate schemes, fabulous speeches etc) takes time, of which I haven't had much (it's the holidays) this game.
I'm having trouble understanding your reads. I don't feel like you're actually pushing anything (except for the Artanis push, which was really awful for other reasons). It feels more like you're playing to survive rather than to solve the game. Sure, I'll check again tonight though.
which read do you have trouble with?
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On January 04 2016 08:17 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 08:14 Palmar wrote:
Damdred, before night 2 (ie d1, n1 and d2) why did you think I am mafia? I thought your vote oe on Rels was super opportunistic and if Tt was scum it would totally fit your meta of trying to help your team towards a common goal. Also lack of thread prescense early with a really lack of any type of push that I could see. There were a couple a spots that gave me pause and Tt flipping town has given me more pause to you and wanting to get my read right today.
Why did you never talk about any of these things?
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Like your ENTIRE filter talking about me that I can find up until the past two hours is this:
On December 30 2015 07:42 Damdred wrote:
Emergency shifts at work are fun I had my analysis done but it's at home on ny conp.
Just incase here's my reads without reasoning but will elaborate if I survive please if I die don't discredit I promise they are well reasoned and thought through.
Town:
Damdred
Rsoultin/Coag
Raynbabyrayn
Artanis
Shining
Vivax
Koshi
Probably town:
Gliwingbear
Holyflare
Exp
Kush
SL
Rit
Night action please
Ticktock. This makes me uneasy as I feel could be town vs town.
Nullish
Onegu maybe I should trust rs read here I had town feels at one point.
Ness what happened to our love it faded so quickly had him more town than null in my notes
Scum lean:
Slam
Palmar
Obvious one
On January 03 2016 07:58 Damdred wrote:
In case I die by ritoky shooting me or anything just a short post since stuck in traffic.
Town:
Damdred
Coag
Kush
SL
I think SL has a shot but if he's scum he is playing a really strong scum game and I congratulate him. Kush also would be playing great if he's scum I think but the possibility I'm drastically misreading him is present and I feel like hedging a small bit in that regard.
Probably town
Exo
HF
Koshi
Shining
Ritoky
Out of this group in worried that ritoky is tricking me. His claiming the gun like he did wasn't like ritoky but I've seen him do similar things. Shinings inactivity bothers me so he's falling try to make him do things but I still think town.
Vivax I would actually pay a lot of attention to, he fell off decently hard and hasn't really been pushing a lot or involved he's worth a bit of pushing on.
Obvious one also deserves a bit his pushes and reads don't make a ton of sense to me or at least the reasoning. Plus general inactivity
Moosey and his sudden burst of posting made me want to town read him but put pressure on him.
GB has fallen off the face of the earth and just doesn't seem to care about pushing his thoughts right now or riding the scum train to death. I actually think he's possible scum again.
If nm doesn't post a ton and just randomly scrwws off during his active times lynch him no matter what.
I like obi as town here he's really not aucking up to people and trying to get on there good side. Its not a 100% read but I think its a good shot at town.
Trfel idk me get be town or scum I'm really undecided without having my notes on hand.
Oneg probably wouldn't go one v one unless he's like the scum big and just wants the rest of his shots to go through. Its total suicide but totally worth it if he goes 1 v 1 and all the big shots go off. It doesn't 100% mean he's town because he acted the way he did.
Palmar is idk very possible scum currently
Ran out of time if I'm alive after day I'll try to elaborate more
That's it, I don't think you talked about me at all beside that
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On January 04 2016 08:21 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 08:15 Palmar wrote:On January 04 2016 08:12 Trfel wrote:On January 04 2016 08:07 Palmar wrote:
Trfel, I seem to recall most of the reason for your scumread being that I'm playing more seriously than in some two other games. You should probably ignore that. I play all sorts of town games. In general, doing bits (tunneling super hard, split personalities, elaborate schemes, fabulous speeches etc) takes time, of which I haven't had much (it's the holidays) this game.
I'm having trouble understanding your reads. I don't feel like you're actually pushing anything (except for the Artanis push, which was really awful for other reasons). It feels more like you're playing to survive rather than to solve the game. Sure, I'll check again tonight though. which read do you have trouble with? Sorry, I need to leave  Sauna again. I'm going back to college tomorrow, there's no way that a game of mafia is going to take me away from my family. I can't remember stuff well, but off the top of my head.... Do you really think that it is a mechanically correct play for the cop to claim a green check to defend you? If not, why did you ask the cop to check you Night 1? I'm having a hard time understanding how you could scumread Onegu and Damdred so heavily right after the Tictock flip, and take this long to come around, when basically everyone else wasn't sure about reads on them shortly after the flip. Can you explain your Alakaslam read?
It's good to be checked either way when people are scumreading me so much. And cop doesn't have to claim, in fact, wasn't it you who in like your first game or something (carol) who bossed around lynches WITHOUT claiming as a cop?
I didn't scumread them hard, I just wanted to kill them. I don't think I ever mentioned a possible world where they're both mafia.
I have no read on slam. The only thing I know is that his rage about the modding thing is very, very out of character for him. I generally don't have a read on slam (you can verify this in multiple games we've played). I am clearly not one with the chupazi or whatever because I have no idea how to figure him out. I just rely on other people doing it for me. (I basically don't read anything he writes).
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On January 04 2016 08:22 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 08:20 Palmar wrote:Like your ENTIRE filter talking about me that I can find up until the past two hours is this: On December 30 2015 07:42 Damdred wrote:
Emergency shifts at work are fun I had my analysis done but it's at home on ny conp.
Just incase here's my reads without reasoning but will elaborate if I survive please if I die don't discredit I promise they are well reasoned and thought through.
Town:
Damdred
Rsoultin/Coag
Raynbabyrayn
Artanis
Shining
Vivax
Koshi
Probably town:
Gliwingbear
Holyflare
Exp
Kush
SL
Rit
Night action please
Ticktock. This makes me uneasy as I feel could be town vs town.
Nullish
Onegu maybe I should trust rs read here I had town feels at one point.
Ness what happened to our love it faded so quickly had him more town than null in my notes
Scum lean:
Slam
Palmar
Obvious one On January 03 2016 07:58 Damdred wrote:
In case I die by ritoky shooting me or anything just a short post since stuck in traffic.
Town:
Damdred
Coag
Kush
SL
I think SL has a shot but if he's scum he is playing a really strong scum game and I congratulate him. Kush also would be playing great if he's scum I think but the possibility I'm drastically misreading him is present and I feel like hedging a small bit in that regard.
Probably town
Exo
HF
Koshi
Shining
Ritoky
Out of this group in worried that ritoky is tricking me. His claiming the gun like he did wasn't like ritoky but I've seen him do similar things. Shinings inactivity bothers me so he's falling try to make him do things but I still think town.
Vivax I would actually pay a lot of attention to, he fell off decently hard and hasn't really been pushing a lot or involved he's worth a bit of pushing on.
Obvious one also deserves a bit his pushes and reads don't make a ton of sense to me or at least the reasoning. Plus general inactivity
Moosey and his sudden burst of posting made me want to town read him but put pressure on him.
GB has fallen off the face of the earth and just doesn't seem to care about pushing his thoughts right now or riding the scum train to death. I actually think he's possible scum again.
If nm doesn't post a ton and just randomly scrwws off during his active times lynch him no matter what.
I like obi as town here he's really not aucking up to people and trying to get on there good side. Its not a 100% read but I think its a good shot at town.
Trfel idk me get be town or scum I'm really undecided without having my notes on hand.
Oneg probably wouldn't go one v one unless he's like the scum big and just wants the rest of his shots to go through. Its total suicide but totally worth it if he goes 1 v 1 and all the big shots go off. It doesn't 100% mean he's town because he acted the way he did.
Palmar is idk very possible scum currently
Ran out of time if I'm alive after day I'll try to elaborate more That's it, I don't think you talked about me at all beside that While this is true you could also make the same argument how I approached hf.
did you scumread hf?
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like I'm sort of okay if you think I'm null and you don't talk about me, but I was clearly bottom or very close to it in both cases.
I actually thought the reasonable answer to my original question would simply be that you were sheeping other people. But meh.
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On December 28 2015 21:56 Palmar wrote:
but ok.
time is up kush.
I genuinely wonder if Kush understood the question he asked. Like, koshi clearly shows that he understands what happened, but it boils down to this:
Kush questioning Exo's read on me only makes sense if Kush actually understand why Exo's accusations are dumb. If he doesn't know why Exo is being a moron, then Kush has no business asking the question he just asked.
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I'll try to get a post, short or long, depending on how much I want to talk about each player today. If you guys decide to flip me, please go back and read every single one. I feel like through reading filters and random bits of the thread I've actually got a relatively good handle on the game. I'm not saying every single read is going to be correct, but if you're going to disagree with me, make sure you have a reason to do so.
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EPT
