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On December 18 2015 01:02 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2015 00:43 GreYMisT wrote:On December 18 2015 00:34 DarthPunk wrote:On December 18 2015 00:19 GreYMisT wrote:
So first off everyone needs to have a lynch target and analysis post before day end. a new one. if someone does not everyone is to assuume that person is scum. I will have one as well, so dont worry.
I also have something and I want both DP and Rels to humor me, and i'd like rayn to go along with it. I'd like both of you to do your best to make a case on rayn. disregard how unlikly it is, or whether or not its something youu actually believe.
ill be here occassionally to respond, but ill mainly be following along and gathering my thoughts for the end of night post. Nope this is super fucking retarded greymist. Explain your reasoning. You are a potential lynch target so you need to back up every assertion Because Rayn being scum makes no fucking sense based on everything that has happened in this game. Why would he lynch fucking Marv instead of just winning the game? He is blatantly town and fucking around making cases that nobody believes in only confuses the actual thinking that needs to happen. And what needs to happen is this: You and Rayn need to filter dive both rels and I and when we vote for each other at lylo whichever one of you is left will need to make a decision. That is the correct play. I will never ever ever lynch or vote for Rayn and I will not read or make a case on him.
Thanks, you've given me what I wanted. I'll need time to interpret the information you and rels have both given me.
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Ok im going to stop the analysis post here becuase I just realized something in my stream of conciousness writing style and i'd like rayn and DP to tell me what they think about it. I will resume my final post if needed.
I was looking at the end of day 1 and I think Rels is mafia. Here is why. Look at the state of the votes when Rels makes his final vote switch off of rayn to Rtani:
On December 14 2015 06:54 Rels wrote:
Arsoul is scum that I don't know why everyone is townreading
Rayn might be omgus but I don't like this thing
Gm is probably scum
Here is what I think but I've not read anything that happened today
On December 14 2015 06:55 Rels wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote rsoul
On December 14 2015 06:55 Rels wrote:Alright this was my last will See you later folks 
At the point of this final vote, this is the vote count (edited to remove Damdreds vote that came after Rels')
On December 14 2015 06:57 LoneMeow wrote:
Vote count:
marvellosity (2): Rels, DarthPunk, raynpelikoneet, Damdred, RtaniSoul, GreYMisT, raynpelikoneet,
DarthPunk (1): marvellosity
Rels (3): raynpelikoneet, GreYMisT, Damdred, DarthPunk
RtaniSoul (1): Rels, Rels
raynpelikoneet (0): Rels
At this point Rels has not posted really aything about Marv, only that he has a townread on him becuase otherwise he would have voted Rels instead of DP (we of course know this to be false). So, as far as Rels knows, he is going to die. And at this point, Rels could have saved himself by voting for Marvellosity, giving marv the new plurality. So the question remains: why didn't rels do this?
One argument is that Rels sincerely thought that Rtani was most likely the scum, and that marv is innocent. First off he voted Rtani after recognizing the entire thread was townreading them at this point, so he must have known that there would be no vote switch here. I think if Rels really cared he would have given more of a reason to switch off.
Rels argues that he thought Marv was town becuase otherwise Marv would have voted for Rels and tried to secure the lynch that way, however I don't actually think this is likely. Marv actually was scum and he entered the thread not voting for Rels. This is becuase marv's survival strategy at the end of day 1 had to be to show the thread that he is capable and can be an asset day 2, and he did that by coming in with a different lynch target. Thus the fact that he didnt vote for Rels should not have made marv look any more townie.
The only explination I can see for why Rels didnt try to save his own life (allegidly a townie) at the end of day 1 by lynching someone who he didnt have a good reason to believe was town, is that both Rels and Marv are scum together. At this point in the game it looked like there would be a decent chance marv would survive the next day, so Rels would not want to hammer his scummate when it looks like Rels himself was taking a lot of suspicion.
I think the mafia plan was to actually sacrifice Rels and have him through a bunch of flack around at the end of the day.
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Alright there are things I like and dislike about both DP and Rels so lets get to it. Im going to analyize by event rather than by player so we can better see the differences in DP and Rels.
My plan to let marv get modkilled.
Here is Rels response:
On December 13 2015 19:56 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2015 09:55 GreYMisT wrote:
Also, here is some more food for thought. According to the post Marv will be mod killed if he fails to vote. This means we lay before us a choice. Option 1 is to vote Marv,
allowing essentially a no lynch day 1 with information. Option number 2 is to let the mod kill happen, and go for double.
Don't know how you all feel about either option, Something to Regard if people start getting strong feelings about someone
. We do not gain a mislynch from a modkill. With a mislynch + NK we are at 3v2 LYLO tomorrow With a modkill + mafia lynch + NK we are at 3v1 MYLO tomorrow. With a modkill + mislynch + NK we lost.
Here is DP's response:
On December 13 2015 17:56 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2015 09:55 GreYMisT wrote:
Also, here is some more food for thought. According to the post Marv will be mod killed if he fails to vote. This means we lay before us a choice. Option 1 is to vote Marv,
allowing essentially a no lynch day 1 with information. Option number 2 is to let the mod kill happen, and go for double.
Don't know how you all feel about either option, Something to Regard if people start getting strong feelings about someone
. Why are you deflecting the decision making onto others here? Do you not have your own opinion on what we should do in this situation?
I talked about my thoughts about these differences earlier, and still think it looks a bit better for DP here. While Rels is quick to jump in and explain why the plan is bad, DP is the only one to attack me about it. This evidences to me that DP was in a scumhunting state of mind when he came upon my post. Regarding Rels, this is more or less neutral. however, I will point out that damdred had already said never play for the mod kill, and Rels swooped in later to basically say the same thing in different words.
End of Day 1
Lot of stuff happened here. Here is a breakdown of what Rels did:
See previous post.
DP:
I like what DP did here. He unvotes Marv becuase he gets back, but keeps pressuring him, questioning his reasoning. He ends up coming to the same conclusion I think I did at the end of the day, that lynching marv is a mistake on day 1 (though I believe for different reasons). but then he just turns over lynching power to Rayn, and commits some hours before the day ends as well. Now we of course dont know what would have happened had Rayn not said Rels, but DP would have looked pretty bad had he not gone along with what Rayn said.
The whole thing about me on night 1 and day 2
Rels: not going to quote it all
To me this exhance is pretty neutral now. He could either be scum just trying to force his read upon the town, or tunnlevisioned town trying to force his read upon the town. However I think something can be said for how, when I wasnt giving him the answers he wanted, he didnt really engage anyone else to try to convince them, he instead just kept pushing me. I would think a town would be more likely to say "fuck it you are scum" and then really only talk to other people and try to get them on board.
DP: I like what he did here, he was actually trying to understand what the hell Rels was talking about and voicing his opinion on it.
End of day 2
DP tried to get people off of Rtani and even ended the day voting himself.
Rels: there is a lot but my hands hurt from typing. I don't like his attidtude at the end of this day. Seems to be putting words and arguments into people's mouths
And right now there is this weird as hell "swear your not scum thing" that convinces him that Ryan is scum
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Im reminded why I dont play much forum mafia anymore, people either expect constant thread and computer awareness or refuse to look more than a step ahead, which renders the playstyle i enjoy ineffective.
If i do play again itwont be with hydras (nothing against either of you, i simply dont like it) and im policy lynching emotional posts
thanks for the invite and the hosting. despite everything it was interesting to get into the swing of things again
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Also ive decided to host another game. should have something for everyone. be on the lookout
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On December 19 2015 02:13 Rels wrote:
@rsoul: BUT IF YOU WERE SCUM IT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE BEST SLIP EVER!!!! it looked like you had slipped you actively lurked; when Arta said "so happy to be right; Tina called it when marv first posted in the thread", it reaaaally looked like to me he didn't mean to say you actively lurked which sounded like an awesome find. =D
@rayn: sry I'm not home until late at night ... but if you're still there around midnight with pleasure (=
Finally: GG. Sry for ruining the game. I really think I would have made this post as scum though; I've made a similar one in resistance where I was scum. But I can see how it's "cheating" in both cases.
GG DP. No slip to be found in your filter.
A few things blew my mind in my scumhunt beliefs: mainly, I didn't think someone making up an explanation could be town. D2 to D3 I was just mad I couldn't find scum and I think it showed until today, where I was actually relaxed and ready to convince rayn. p:
I find slips almost never find scum, and almost always just end up getting a town killed. I always find a person playing too perfectly is more suspicious than a person messing up.
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I did really almost save you Damdred, it came down to me thinking that rayn was the the more likely kill without considering WIFOM
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EPT
