TL Mafia LXXIII: The Nutcracker - Page 73

On December 21 2015 02:40 GiygaS wrote:
Holy shit you were working on it that entire time.

On December 20 2015 16:32 Shapelog wrote:
Well Comrades! TT is one sly motherfucker or one really really really really unlucky miller.
Hes Scum!

He visted Kush last night.

And yes, i am claiming the blue role of Fritz Stahlbaum, I am a one-time tracker (since mechanics state a role can be one-shot two shot or mutishot). It is funny how i got this piece of info btw. I misunderstood my role haha. I thought i see who Vists the person i was TRACKING not the other way around. You can thank that misunderstanding when TT flips mafia

1st reason why he is scum over unlucky Miller: Probability
Math! the greatest weakness of guess who games!

Let us obverse the natural and non-natural (human mafia influence.)

Natural:
lets say the set up of the game was like this: 2-3 blue roles, 3 vt, 2-3 millers, 2-3 wanders, 3 scum.
Best chance TT gets miller is 3/13
Chance of visting Kush last night 1/9
Natural chance (random shot basically) of mafia killing kush the same night: 1/9
3 * 1 * 1 = 3
13 * 9 * 9 = 1053
So a natural chance of all that happening is 3/1053 or 1/351 or .28 % Of ever happening!

But, I can hear you say (or TT at least) what about human mafia? They are surly not ever going to randomly shot someone! that be unreasonable! and that is true.... But there is way we can roughly calculate the non-natural chance that mafia would shot Kush last night. Patterns.

So far 2/3 of the night kills by mafia have been second hand town members. What do i mean by second hand? townies who have lack luster mafia cases and slash or low content. Only Koshi has broken this rule. So we can calcule with this pattern who is mafia target last night:
TS: heck no with that Rels case does he fit in. (might be mafia...)
Giygas Khan: No, he did that big case on me, and a few smaller, but good scum cases/posts analyzes.
Damred: not a single real case past D1, and that wasn't even big. +1 (might be mafia)
TT: Doesn't matter, hes mafia, he would be shooting, so subtract one from the bottom. But if we are calling him a miller, then no
Kush: Check +1
Koshi: Nope..... Mafia probuly killed him for town cred (more on that later) Lets say mafia already knew they were going to kill him so we will exclude him to give TT the best chance here.
Me: Hell no, I been their biggest advocate (again later on)
Surkit: Yes, but i think he is mafia along with TT.
LS: pretty meh, not enough to be out of this logic : +1
Vobby: checkish +1, if i was scum, might as well lynch him and get cred at this point though. So for the sake of it (and since everyone else is calling him mafia I put him with the mafia team for this)

So 3/6 or 1/2 of the people were up to be shot by mafia last night.

3 * 1 * 1 = 3
13 * 9 * 2 = 234
So 3/234 or 1/78 or 1.2 % chance of it happening.
1.2% vs a .28 % for innocent miller to be caught going to a dead person's home. Awful chances of miller aren't they? So if he is mafia it is a 98.8% non natural chance and a 99.72 natural chance that he was visiting for mafia business.

Go ahead and fight me if you think he was just visiting Kush for a drink on the night he died. Go ahead, i got math.

2nd reasoning: TT has done nothing that makes sense as mafia.

I bet you read that and went "What?" how can you claim someone is mafia when they done nothing that makes sense.

I think i told Damred best why when he posted this:




1st off my biggest issue with this and TT is that it is hard for him to "Trend waters" as Damred claim mafia should do. Is that that is Exactly why everyone scum read TT at the beginning! Just like koshi, if he doesn't live up to his "town play" he is auto scum in people eyes. So he has to do these big reads and cases. Hes got to put up the show, to be believe as town. And that's it. It is like something known as security theater, it is not actual security, it is just a show of security like behavior and actions that makes everyone feel safe. That is what he is doing here. Lets go threw the list:

Rik case: So TT enters the game after much inactiveness, (maybe planned) and comes in and has a magically same theory i had about Rik. About his hard ass town read on me. Everyone wrote it off as tinfoil basically, except him. Tell me, why in the world would mafia come into the game, see people are questioning he's side, and instead of posting a bunch of stuff and posting. He just jumps on this. He could easily saw my theory and jump on. You can how this actually HELPS a mafia.

Let me run it again, nearing end of D1, before wagons really from. TT sees votes on him, realizes that no one paid attention to his Rik post for the most part, and is discussing lynching him. Makes a relative rushed post, and gets into a conversation with Riks. Everyone points out his post is rushed, so he does something unexcepting, he votes for Giyga Khan. At that point, he wasn't even really talked about in the terms of being scum. Well then people scum read him for wasting his vote. I can image at this point he was desperate. He knew the two wagons were town and town. Damred (who maybe is his partner) does shenanigans and he has to vote one or the other to avoid sus. about him voting GiygaS Khan. And hammers GB because "well i am sus. might as well do something more sus. so i look town". Then to give him more cred, he goes off me going hard onto Rik. then kills Rik.

Koshi Vote:
pretty self explaining. Knew he would be town and that a fellow team mate had a gun. Maybe onegu is with him lol.

Kush kill:
So here we are. The info that got me writing this WoT in the first place. But why would the person kill the person he just scum reads? Duh for the cred.


It is different then from when Kush said he was more townie because Rik die. Remember how everyone thought this was a WIFOM move by mafia to cast sus. on me and kush? And everyone told Kush it was NAI? Kush didn't scum read Rik, in fact, he sided with rik. Compare this too:



Then Kush dies. The night TT calls him scum, magically he visits the place with at best a 1.2% chance roughly as a miller? And the night before, digs up my read on kush which practically said "This guy is town, but he does have a few scummys posts" which clearly implies that they aren't big enough to make me think he was mafia. Then pulls up irrelevant D2 garage filter from Kushs filter to call him scum.

Why would he do this as mafia? Because that has been his entire plan from the beginning! And it work so good to, I mean if it wasn't for my stupid mistake i would of not even have knew. But everything makes sense now. But it is time to drive home the "mafia is being obvious mafia to try to seem town" claim.

3rd reason: His trouble, dumbtell posts.



Idk about Damdred (I don't think really he went hard after damdred tbh, more like "his play makes no sense! again") about about Vivax. Tell me why the hell mafia at this point shouldn't get rid of him if he is scum? Because he is a team mate? It is way to hard to defend his crap. It seems too good that mafia would just let one of their own get lynch without some plan. And guess what, the other two TT and ???? are doing just that, to get cred. Mafia will have too at this point either come out and lie about a role or just let him get lynch. But if Vivax is town (which according to TS could be a 50/50 right now bewteen mafia and town RB) then it is easy winnings right now. Keeping vivax alive as possible has been mafia key goal. No one except LS i think even glace at my post D2 when i keep bringing up Vobby. Why not keep town Vivax alive as long as possible. I still think he is scum, but honestly a coinflip right now (if what TS is saying is true, which for all i know could be mafia trying to influence voting) At our last lynch is super fucking dicey

Dead Koshi post:

This is prob. NAI but is worth mentioning. Easy knowing that koshi is dieing to post this after day to basically be town. How does mafia forget who they are killing? Excellently, that is why he is mafia. Sees my post about vig and gun, Somehow misses the who conversation with LS about asking someone to claim up to who shot koshi (or maybe kush and TT had gun lol, no wait makes no sense) Skips Night flips and posts a koshi lynch. Because it seems townie. But this is his biggest dumbtell all game for the "obivous mafia being town" plan.

Hell lets ponder if a town killed koshi last night. By his skimmyness alone, to not even look at who died. seems like a normal scum move. Wait....He HAD TO READ THE DAY CYCLE POST BECAUSE HE KNEW KUSH DIED! HOW IN THE HELL DID HE MISS KOSHI? Maybe skimming through to see if his night kill got healed!


And you know what is funny? I FUCKING BROUGHT IT, SO DID EVERYONE ELSE! MAFIA TOO OBVIOUS? NO THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE. I mean give me your 1st reason that you ever thought of in this game that TT was town? Was it a town read? scum case? No, it was because it was posting like a mad man trying to get everyone to say "thats our boy" and it fucking work! Damm......

Conclusion:
Which one do you feel more comfortable with? A almost 99% gaurtreed scum or a 50/50 scum? Pure probulbilty says that TT only has a 1.2 % of rolling town at this point. Vivax still has 50%! at this point.

My money is on the 99% scum
God i was so lucky
##Vote: TicTock

I can not believe you betrayed me tinfoil buddy you even killed the new member.
Also if TS is mafia he fucked you over baldly because of a present call.
Also Thanking my dumbness and my misunderstanding of the role lol.

- a visit to the person who gets nightkilled for one night

On December 21 2015 02:51 Damdred wrote:
No no no no don't be a moron ls you vote the red check out then we evaluate Tt vs sh tonight tommorow

On December 21 2015 01:48 Shapelog wrote:
Like everyone killed had a way for a mislynch the day they died. Me on Rit, TT had a Kush being scum case. Koshius was killed by them while having major sus..
But yet Vobby, who has been the easiest target for a mislynch is still alive? IS it because he only post to avoid modkill? Is it because mafia knows it sus. and it is the easiest target for a mislynch? Why not kill everyone that could provide town with info with a lynch? And yes, why waste the gun when they could of mislynch koshius or vobby today and shot and win tomorrow? Because they have the best mislynch! Vobby.

Like the more and more i think about it. The more and more i can see vobby being bait for the mafia's fishing hook. And town being the fish.

On December 21 2015 02:59 Damdred wrote:
No ls remember when gb red checked hf and we didn't lynch him and lost the game? You take the ducking red check and go to the next day.

You don't take the big play you take the right play.

Don't be a moron.

And look at sha trying to,discredit me for doing the correct thing

On December 21 2015 03:02 Tictock wrote:


I mean... maybe, but then I'd have to accept that Vivax plays this terribly as town. I don't think he does.

Or it's just that Vivax is mafia and they won't kill their teammate kus that'd be against mafia win con.

On December 21 2015 02:19 Shapelog wrote:


Couldn't technically I track GF who goes no where?

Idk, I was like when i saw my role "Lets get some motherfucking mafia boys", I wouldn't be that smart enough to confirm myself like that .

On December 21 2015 02:31 Shapelog wrote:


I already did.... In so many times......*sigh*

I misunderstood the text. I though it worked like a watcher/lookout. So i thought i was watching you, but turns out I tracking.

Reason why i hold it is explain a few posts up.

On December 19 2015 13:09 Shapelog wrote:
I HaTe Myyyyyy LifE.
WaS TyPing Brillllenrt ResPond ON WhO WaAS ScUm.
THeN PagE ReLoaD, LoSt It. Oh Wellllll, Justa PoSt ThE CaSe Torrrmoerrr. Don'T yOU DARE MR> TICKDLATOLK TO SKIP AHEAD!

On December 19 2015 10:56 Shapelog wrote:


NO MR.TickdeToak BAD BOY FIghtingxz. We Haved To Haive A coNverSation Aboutiy VoBBy. NoW do U! Wantve toh LYCNH! VoBby orKosushishshush? OR shouldwe be More ACcepTing Of otherirses And Likes ConSider Somesoenes Liek Oengus Or tHat KhaN!. IN FACT, I shalz DriVe and Get InFO On They So I can CharGe ThEm WiTH THE DEATHS OF RIKOTY. GOD I MISS THAT GUY! HE WAS SUCH A GOOD FAtherZs

I Getz baCk toO yoU aFter The Drive. WAIT FOR ME MR. TIckDeToak!