EPTHope I'll also get around to look at the reasons/timings of the votes on HtS, to see who the bus drivers where.
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Hope I'll also get around to look at the reasons/timings of the votes on HtS, to see who the bus drivers where. | ||
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need to double check his 2. and 3. points on NM, am not a big fan of the 1. point (talking to scum reads like they are town). I think someone scumread town!disformation last game for the same reason, so I do not think this is a good metric for scum hunting. :p | ||
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On December 07 2015 05:26 disformation wrote: tldr on trfel: had a super hard time reading him last game (where he was scum!trfel), not going a lot better this game. Will look at geripts pointers on last game and look at his filter this game again. Which will take a while since trfel seems to love huge posts. That being said I think his cases/arguments feel more evolving and less stagnant than the ones scum!trfel did last game. need to double check his 2. and 3. points on NM, am not a big fan of the 1. point (talking to scum reads like they are town). I think someone scumread town!disformation last game for the same reason, so I do not think this is a good metric for scum hunting. :p sry for double post, but I did look at trfel's 2nd and 3rd points on NM. 2. Can you show me examples? Because I was reading through his filter and felt like the main points where kinda consistent. Granted in the beginning he was throwing out scum reads like candy, despite not having caught up to the thread, but after that it stabilizes a bit. Yeah, the reads are not explained that much in detail, but he has a few lines for each read and they don't look forced to me or anything. 3. True, from what HtS told me about them meeting IRL I would have expected more gloating. =p Got more examples for that? I kinda can agree that NM's filter seems to lack a direction outside of the push on HtS, but he is interacting a bunch with a lot of people, so that is a townie brownie. Still think he is more likely to be town. | ||
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1) stagnant, not evolving reads as said in the last post, this feels better this game. 2) focus on things that sound good but don't make the cased person mafia need to recheck for this, though has trfel done any consolidated cases recently? Kinda off for Trfel generally? also sry 4 tripple post xD | ||
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On December 07 2015 07:28 Fecalfeast wrote: just slept for 12 hours this song speaks to me on a deep level. Did we ever establish the setup based on hts' flip? Do I have to write a last will in case we have a patient vig? "Unfortunately, this video is not available in your country because it could contain music, for which we could not agree on conditions of use with GEMA." And I was looking forward to some good scum-huntin' music.  And yeah I think we still have 3 possible setups? Also no clue bout the patient vigi... if you feel like someone is watching you and taking aim, a few notes would be nice. | ||
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Do you ppl have a decent read on Fidei86? I also never played with him, so no idea on big meta stuff. Could also just be mafia trying to WIFOM up the place, but since I don't have a good read on Fidei86 I think at least checking that out would be a good idea. | ||
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Still think he has a decent chance of being scum, but I want to look at his more recent stuff again and Trfel was pointing out something I want to double check. | ||
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On December 07 2015 08:30 NocturneMage wrote: I can't control anything she does. If you people fall for this theory and I flip Monday night, I am the one that will have to deal with physically hearing her laughing her head off from the study, so do pardon if I get a little annoyed at this. That said, a few people (I forget whom) raised the point about you being in the same boat, you as mafia bussing HTS, one of the first votes on HTS but first real suspicion only after I replaced in. Any thoughts on those if you looked in that direction? Yes, he has. He was town reading me all day, dropping a post right on the deadline saying he thinks I might be scum now, because he found some association with me and HtS, but hasn't bothered to explain that. Also not sure what you mean with connection between LS and fidei... I found you two talking about HtS but no mention of LS | ||
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On December 07 2015 08:39 Fecalfeast wrote: I'm really sorry for replacing in to this game I feel like I'm just emulating onegu's afk play but it's my day off it's so hard not to just play fallout on one monitor and watch capcom cup on the other. Oh snap poonghko! I need like a third monitor. On December 07 2015 08:39 NocturneMage wrote: rephreased what did you think of Fidei's interactions with me as I was trying to draw an association between HTS and him and HTS and LS early d2 as I was pushing HTS? that should be clearer now. apologies. Ah, okay. So I had to actually look at all the stuff, because despite recently have looked at his filter it is not very memorable. I guess Palmar started to dislike Fidei86 based on his sexy filter thing. The first few responses/interactions with/towards you were pretty neutral and could come from either alignment. Like his clarification on a past game and him asking you to clarify your scum read on HtS. His tone is also pretty neutral here. Then he switches to a super agreeable / backing off stance in these two posts: On December 04 2015 09:34 Fidei86 wrote: Okay. Happy to take you at your word re 2. Sorry for suggesting it. I really hope she gets well soon, please do pass on all of our regards...<3 On December 04 2015 09:36 Fidei86 wrote: Nobody is talking about lynching you. I wanted to probe your thoughts a little bit, because your writing so far has been a little less ... I don't know, maybe dispassionate? Insightful? I just have never seen you go after a lynch with such abandon before. And if you don't like my reasons for pushing you a little bit, then please do scum read me. But hopefully you'll see them for what they are. Could either be him being satisfied with your answers or backing up super fast, before the actually takes a kinda controversial stance? I kinda agree with his stuff on LS though. So fidei86 is a bit hard for me atm. Has he pushed LS? Or did he go at him also in this super soft manner? | ||
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On December 07 2015 09:10 NocturneMage wrote: wait, disformation second half of your last post I think you are completely misunderstanding. first quote - that was nothing to do with the game - that was real life. he wasn't trying to get a read on me I don't think he was just trying to see if hts was being manipulative with rl, the answer is no (even if she flipped scum, that is just hts being hts honestly I cited examples of her doing this as town too) and aside that there were other reasons to scumread her second quote, it was a misunderstanding. I was pinging trfel but my response came right after fidei's quote so fidei just assumed I was talking to him. but I think I can see why you came to that conclusion with those two sentences in the last quote. Ah, damn. Okay, that makes sense. Thanks for the clarification.  Also for what it is worth, have some coloured votes: (went ahead and coloured myself green :p) Day 1 Kushm4sta (7): Fidei86, Damdred, LS, Shining, Rels, HTS, Palm LightningStrike (4): disformation, kushm4sta, DoYouHas, Trfel Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy, Onegu Half the Sky (9): NocturneMage, DoYouHas, Fecalfeast, Rels, Trfel, Fidei86, Palmar, The Shining, LightningStrike DoYouHas (1): disformation NocturneMage (1): Half the Sky So to get information from this vote cycle I will try and look at the reasons/timings for voting HtS and try to see if there are plausible bus drivers. As I outlined yesterday DYH could have been such a busdriver, but I will look at the other suspects, too. | ||
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On December 07 2015 09:20 DoYouHas wrote: So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make. Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote: Hey everyone. A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed - Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough. Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why: When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up. Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously. disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game. So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation. Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence. Moving to Palmar/Shining... 1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote: I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads. Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere. Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case. 2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo 3. Trfel, Disfo, LS Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy) HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote: I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible. The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred. DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush. Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from. Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread: Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will. Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter. Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it) Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in... 4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo - Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia. However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting. - I think the cross between these two methods is a pretty good reason to scumread Disfo. Please look into it yourselves. ##Vote: Disformation Hmm... I was told that it is also very common mistake for scum partners to totally ignore each other. How many interactions did you have with HtS again? | ||
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On December 07 2015 09:48 DoYouHas wrote: But you do bring up a good point. I need to look into this from your side of things. Will filter you after dinner stuff. Yeah, sure, feel free to do so. Nearly 2 am here and I have work tomorrow. So I'll do the looking at votes things tomorrow after work. Kinda annoyed that despite having a way better (town) game than my last game I still get cases thrown at my head. | ||
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Hm. geript said in the obs QT of last game that if a town player that has very little or no pull with the thread gets nk'ed that most often means he is right. Especially if that player is an experienced one. Palmar had little pull and is an experienced player. So him disliking fidei and/or LS could be a thing. Also don't like that Fidei had no follow up on: On December 05 2015 00:25 Fidei86 wrote: I will. I'll also read DYH's filter this evening. Work is slow today, so I've been able to play a lot of Mafia, but it's all phone posting. That being said I want to check his stance on HtS yesterday and see what he brings after catching up. Will also be looking at DYH, Trfel and LS later, when I am at home. On December 07 2015 20:46 Fecalfeast wrote: lol accidentally fallout until 3:45 what a good towny. Who should I sheep? Dunno, there seem to be a bunch of candidates for today. So you know, you could like... read their (trfel/fidei/disformation) filters and the cases on them and decide which one you like most/least? -.- | ||
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But here you are "only" slightly suspicious... and what is a little scum lean between good partners? On December 01 2015 21:45 Fidei86 wrote: @Rels I have looked over HTS' posts, and I am more okay with #209 now that I've read it a few times. There's nothing particularly objectionable in there. At #219, I disagree with her read on the Palmar / Shining interaction. There is something very strange about Shining's progression, and HTS just skates past it. She then at #224, #237 and #246 goes forward and then back on on Trfel. She asks Shining about people other than Palmar, but noticeably doesn't ask Palmar about people other than Shining. I know that HTS is very much a fan of Palmar's scum play. I know that she has previously had him as a coach and that she generally speaks highly of him as a player. It is strange to me that she almost specifically avoids interacting with him, or making any comments about him. Honestly, if she can't read him, it seems like the rest of us don't have a chance. None of the above is a guaranteed scum-tell. But I find it somewhat suspicious. Town HTS nitpicks as well, but I just always get the sense that she is going somewhere with her thoughts. That seems lacking to me. Still want to look at your whole filter and progression on HtS later tonight. The thing is: someone had to bus her. From my POV two someones have bussed HtS and I am going to find out who. | ||
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How so? I am the only one who didn't vote her and unless I have misread my role PM, I am quite sure I am town. Thus, the conclusion that both remaining scummers bussed HtS. This might even include one of the ppl who had an early case/suspicion on her. | ||
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On December 07 2015 23:27 Rels wrote: That's true you were the only vote not on HTS. The Shining had this in his case / scum read on me as well, if you want to check that out: On December 06 2015 08:37 The Shining wrote: [...] POE leaves me with the really bad outlier vote in disfo(this is another one whose filter and other games I have to revisit). But he's not lynching scum d2, pushing dyh hard all day and he himself calls himself waffleboy. That stubbornness and refusal to get off of DYH in the hopes he could shift the lynch off of HtS has me thinking he gave himself away. Me to come soon. [...] On December 06 2015 10:16 The Shining wrote: And disfo said he is consciously trying to change that waffling because it gets him scumread but he put out way more content last game and even though he waffled, he was towned quite a lot. I don't think his meta would change that quickly from one game to the next. Though I still not like getting a scumread for trying to waffle less this game. I also said pregame that I am probably going to put a bit less time in this game, because I need to get some RL stuff done... And here I am sitting at work typing away at this thread... | ||
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On December 07 2015 23:30 NocturneMage wrote: here's another related theory I had for palmar being shot folks, hear me out. look I don't know the guy, but from the games I have read where dani has played I understand there is a pattern where some players know each other extremely well. like I look at the database, palmar has shittonnes of games played. does palmar know anyone here so well that he can ping them out well out of the blue even if he is not scumreading them now? is he known as someone who has late game heroics? who in this group might be threatened by him regardless of his reads at any point in the game? I see trfel and ls have approx 18-20 games played, I think recalling, and we know palmar was townreading ls or buying into the modconfirmation thing (which means ls should have no reason to shoot him in theory), dyh about 15, so IDK, ff high 20s, the rest far less than this. trfel is already being suspected by palmar, but thoughts on the rest? I realise this is quite random but I'm just trying to see if he possibly could ferret out another long time player and maybe that person could have been feeling threatened by him or his knowledge of the game. palmar was obviously taking a lazy way of solving the game so who here could have been getting scared of palmar once he decides to pull it together and solve? any takers? 4th game on TL folks. since so many of you are throwing meta out 5th game on tl.net. First game with Palmar. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/331187-tl-mafia-liv And they were both killed pretty early in that... | ||
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On December 08 2015 00:01 Rels wrote: disfo I saw you fetched some geript's stuff from the last newbie ? How does it apply to Trfel this game then ? Well, one point was that for example Trfel's case/read on FF didn't evolve and focused on points that made FF look bad, but not necessary mafia. Scum not being able to change/adapt their reads to new circumstances is a thing, I also have seen in other reads. A general thing on Trfel was that he likes to focus on these points, ie points that make players look bad, but not necessarily mafia. So last game his reads were like "hm... nah" to me. This game his reads/cases feel more organic to me as in they react and incorporate more recent stuff that is happening. Also instead of having a few set in stone reads, he is more unsure about a lot of people. That being said, I still get a bunch of the similar "hm.. nah" vibe on a bunch of his points. I wanted to take a more in depth look at his stuff, but tbh, with having ppl over yesterday and not being at home in general on Saturday, I haven't gotten to that yet. But he is still on the list of ppl I want to look at, as mentioned earlier. So I'll hope I'll get this done today evening. | ||
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On December 08 2015 00:36 Rels wrote: Well here is my mind right now: Shining, disfo and LS are town. Kills points at Trfel and fidei. DYH is also an attractive lynch, but kills don't point to him. Finally, fidei's point about NM's being so sure of HTS the minute he enters the thread makes some sense. Looks like FF didn't make any list. Means he's likely town. Hm... think I can agree to most of it. But can you explain your read on LS? Last time I looked at him I wasn't impressed. On December 08 2015 00:40 Fidei86 wrote: Gun to my head, on a pure gut read basis, I think the Mafia is likely 2 of LS, Disfo and NM. LS and NM I've discussed. Disfo is something I've been mulling for a while, and it's mostly because I feel all of his posts have tried to look useful but actually haven't been. (Filter dives to follow. I mean it this time). If you got the time and are interested, feel free to look at my previous games (all linked in my profile). | ||
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