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On December 04 2015 09:47 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:43 The Shining wrote:
Fuuuuuuuuu. I'm out of thread for an hour or so. I'm at work as usual and UPS(package delivery service) just slammed me with over 40 boxes to scan, log and store. I hate holiday season.
NM I think I like where you're going with this HtS read. But you did promise a full case. Are you still going to do that?
Trfels last post on HtS read progression makes me think he's tryharding and idk if I see scumTrfel going this hard, so maybe you're both onto something with her. I'll have to read her filter for myself.
I'm liking DYH's last few posts too.
I'm also not buying the LS confirmed town because of EoD stuff. I don't want to delve too much into NK analysis because I'm not good at it but there is also reason for LS to kill Damdred and immortalize that read if he's scum.
I guess right now my most suspicious lie in HTS, LS, Fidei, Palmar. Rels and disfo is middle ground. NM, FF, Trfel, DYH likely town.
I'll be back Just want to point out LS that you and me have basically exactly the same read list (other than you scumming me and me scumming Trfel). And you followed me onto Kush. And you were going to join me on LS when I was thinking about it. It just seems to me that if you're Mafia, I must be very wrong in how I'm reading this game. The same must go the other way right?
Actually your thinking about joining the LS wagon is why I was hesitant and asking so many questions beforehand. I was weighing my suspicions on you vs the case and points on him. As for having a lot of the same reads, if I'm being honest, I'm never too confident in them before first scumflip, as my association cases and late game play is where I excel at. D1/D2, I'm used to being wrong and sometimes scum siding on reads without realizing it. So even with our reads being similar, you're in my suspicious pile until I read your filter and can figure out how you arrived to those reads.
As for the Trfel read, he's got 8 pages at the start of D2 and 8 pages total his last scum game. Like I've pointed a few issues I had with some of his reads and posts but he hasn't backed down from me and his willingness to explain and then put in work on his reads, like the stuff on HTS, is giving me trouble on where the scum motivation could come from. He's been under a lot of pressure this game and even though there are some similarities from his last scumgame, one thing that recently stands out to me is the amount of sensible content he's putting out, even under pressure. I don't agree with everything, and had issues with his dropping his NM scumread pretty easily, but its more about the way he's done it and explained it. I could see it coming from town trying to evaluate what's in the thread and I thinking he could be wrong, after being wrong on Damdred.
And following onto kush was a risky play that I took because I didn't like his switch. But you being the instigator before me is one of the main reasons I'm still suspicious. Like I do take some responsibility for it but it also surprised me how many more people were willing to follow once I switched, instead of when you did. Like if you're scum, its possible your team waits for a town to switch(like me) and then pin the responsibility on me(like HtS did).
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On December 04 2015 10:29 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:27 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 10:24 LightningStrike wrote:On December 04 2015 10:17 NocturneMage wrote:
bah fuck it's 1am...let me try and bang out this case on dani since some people here aren't convinced.
ALSO LS, for the love of everything good, do you have any bloody scumreads? or conclusions? I mean, seriously any?!?!!?!??!?!? Mafia had a field day most likely at EoD prob laughed there asses off when kush flipped boxer. Anyways time to pick FF's brain a little bit. @FFWhat your thoughts on regarding the shannies regarding the people you had asked me about? no shit?????????? you are basically saying that Moosy (now myself) is town - duh, thank you for telling me something I didn't already know you are saying that kush is town - duh, he flipped, again, thank you for telling me something I didn't already know you are saying that you are town, which you have to do as either alignment. so what are you telling me about the other players? ................................. do you understand why I'm having trouble thinking that you are town? That mafia could of switched to any of the wagons they want at EoD and still lynch town between me and Kush O_o BTW is this my first time playing with you NM?
What's the purpose of this question? He's just as likely to know the answer as you are. How is this alignment indicative?
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On December 04 2015 10:32 Fecalfeast wrote:I think fidei's passive 'switch to kush' wasn't actually trying to start shenanigans but the way he's playing it off now makes it suspicious. Like he says here (in the nested quote) that he didn't think people would follow him ontoi that shitty lynch. If it was shitty... Why was he there? Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:27 Fidei86 wrote:On December 04 2015 09:25 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 09:24 Fidei86 wrote:
Hey, I was surprised as everyone else that you all followed me into that shitty lynch. But technically Palmar was the first mover, I was just the first one to urge everyone to switch. Why did I scowl so hard after reading this post? That was weird maybe because it sort of reads like I (a) say you all followed me into the lynch and (b) it actually wasn't my fault. I'm sort of trying to have my cake and eat it. You're right. I wasn't the first person to have the idea, but I probably was the one that caused it. I was wrong and I'm sorry. Then this pandering to me when I call out the post, without actually voicing any concern. Fidei doesn't ask me to explain he knows he looks bad because he's thinking about his image. He even apologizes to me when I literally said nothing of value about his post. The shining, I haven't read his filter tbh but he's got a decent tone in his recent posts that makes me think he's town but I skim a lot lol. HTS was really pushing hard that you(LS) were town and switched to kush pretty easily from what I recall following the EoD before I replaced in. Another filter I'll have to look at. OK so I only have strong feelings on fidei (scummy) right now I will check out HTS and shining
I think you had the same issues with Trfels d1, too. Did you definitely lean either way on him?
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On December 04 2015 10:41 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:39 NocturneMage wrote:On December 04 2015 10:36 LightningStrike wrote:On December 04 2015 10:31 NocturneMage wrote:
I don't ever recall playing with you.
And you still aren't answering the question. Who are your scumreads? Names, reasons. let's go. Idk I'll be blunt on that. Maybe DYH if I wrong on him. So both you and disformation (confirm?) think DYH is bussing HTS? well answer for yourself...why? in your own words, why? Hold your horses I didn't say HTS is scum :o If I wrong on DYH it's because I thought he was a newbie and Rels case seems okay but not really enough to convince me to vote him right now.
So you think HtS is town?
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On December 04 2015 10:49 LightningStrike wrote:
Anyways who should we lynch outside of me and HTS and why NM?
I'll ask again. So you think HtS is town, I presume? Why? What makes HtS town in your eyes?
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Hi. I'm playing catch up. I clicked HtS filter though and the lack of follow-ups on anything since this wagon started feels like she's the right vote, along with NMs case and the point I put out against her. It's sensible she's just not trying to defend herself for fear of giving away her scumteam. Going to vote her then continue reading.
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No shock there. Glad to hear you're at least feeling better, HtS.
I have thoughts. But I need to read some stuff before I put all of them out there.
I think DYH is super towny. Especially those last few posts. Rehashing Damdreds reads and then comparing them to kush showed a concerted effort to figure things out. That and upon rereading Damdred, he didn't misrepresent those reads, nor make up scumreads.
Trfel is strong town and I'm okay with that. I'm thinking he's about as wrong on NM bussing as he was on Damdred but that's another thing I need to re-read.
I'm dropping my suspicion on Fidei. The more I read him, the more town he feels. And maybe we do just have a mindmeld going, I need to get over the paranoia from that.
Palmar is middle ground but a filter check is needed there, too. At least one scum obviously bussed but his recent posting, although not his strongest work this game, felt like town pressed for time.
NM feels pretty locked in town at this point. He drove the hts lynch home off of a good metaread but he's also questioning and fleshing out his other reads.
LS recent responses feel more like LS. Very innocent, carefree, does rely heavily on Meta but I like his interaction with DYH, too.
POE leaves me with the really bad outlier vote in disfo(this is another one whose filter and other games I have to revisit). But he's not lynching scum d2, pushing dyh hard all day and he himself calls himself waffleboy. That stubbornness and refusal to get off of DYH in the hopes he could shift the lynch off of HtS has me thinking he gave himself away. Me to come soon.
Also FF. He's not lazy uncaring town FF. From the moment he entered the game, he's been making an effort to try and look productive, then uses Fallout to bail out before he can get asked too much. He keeps asking others to point him in a direction instead of scum hunting for himself. And he promises a lot of content but he's only delivering easy, low effort content.
I think that's our last 2 lynches to win the game going forward. Discuss?
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Ah I missed Rels. I want to read him again but gut says town.
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I don't want screenshots. Give me a reaction instead? There's 1 or 2 scum bussing HtS. Do you have any thoughts? Anyone who You think voted HtS too easily? Thoughts on disfo?
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On December 06 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote:
on mobile
as if there were ever any doubt. honestly anything HTS did day 2 is basically WIFOM, so whatever drivel she had the last 30 minutes really doesn't mean dick all.
Well except her update outside the game of course. <3
LS, of course she would post Talisker like that. she loves Talisker. she will drink that and/or Glenfiddich when she rolls mafia.
I don't know what the baby seal is for though.
anyways, my personal motivation in finding the last two mafia though is to make sure they don't keep drinking whisky via mislynches, because she would have asked them to do that. why? because it's HTS.
I have too many scumleans/reads so I know I have a bit to sort out when I return. probably going to proceed in terms of what teams make sense with hts and some additional filter checks.
Baby seal is this site's way of claiming scum, for some reason that I never learned lol. Go read my list post and tell me what you think. I'll Re-read HtS filter and interactions as well at some point tonight to see what makes most sense.
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On December 06 2015 09:06 NocturneMage wrote:
well Shining, define "too easily" there's people that could have planned it from the off and there's people in a normal bus - I learnt this in newbie 13 because Damdred caught me for it, that bus her at the very end, and don't try and fight it. they kind of see how thread sentiment goes and then just say "ah fuck it" but then again it's weekend and activity seemed sort of low this weekend.
I have to look into the likeliness of whoever the fuck could have planned it - the timing of my replacement (2300) and the first post against her do look suspect but when I look at DYH filter WITHOUT the associative read, he doesn't really look that bad, so I really don't know, he pulled off a great bus then though if he is mafia.
Pretty much little to no discussion. Or going from town to "sheeping NM". Lots of reading to be done. I remember FF explaining more than once his reasoning to sheep NM. Over explanation?
Then there's that lone disfo vote...hm.
Also Trfel, what makes NM more likely scum than town now that HtS flipped? Her vote was spooky spooky wifom but scum has voted me before in games that I was town but under suspicion.
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On December 04 2015 09:43 Fecalfeast wrote:
Let's just wagon HTS since her going completely silent the moment her hubby shows up in the game makes me pause. I get that she's sick (get well soon) but trfel's weirdness has made me second guess how much I agree with his scumread on NM.
Easy. Low effort. Possible bus. Posts like that, FF. Especially now that you're back on thinking NM bussed, after second guessing Trfels scumread on NM.
On December 04 2015 09:53 Fecalfeast wrote:
Actually this trfel shit is really bugging me but how on earth does someone produce a million pages of filter, multiple cases with references and then throw it all away based on night kill wifom as scum?
Am I not giving trfel enough credit?
More discredit on Trfel. Low effort post, not really scumming him but discrediting
On December 04 2015 10:32 Fecalfeast wrote:I think fidei's passive 'switch to kush' wasn't actually trying to start shenanigans but the way he's playing it off now makes it suspicious. Like he says here (in the nested quote) that he didn't think people would follow him ontoi that shitty lynch. If it was shitty... Why was he there? Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:27 Fidei86 wrote:On December 04 2015 09:25 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 09:24 Fidei86 wrote:
Hey, I was surprised as everyone else that you all followed me into that shitty lynch. But technically Palmar was the first mover, I was just the first one to urge everyone to switch. Why did I scowl so hard after reading this post? That was weird maybe because it sort of reads like I (a) say you all followed me into the lynch and (b) it actually wasn't my fault. I'm sort of trying to have my cake and eat it. You're right. I wasn't the first person to have the idea, but I probably was the one that caused it. I was wrong and I'm sorry. Then this pandering to me when I call out the post, without actually voicing any concern. Fidei doesn't ask me to explain he knows he looks bad because he's thinking about his image. He even apologizes to me when I literally said nothing of value about his post. The shining, I haven't read his filter tbh but he's got a decent tone in his recent posts that makes me think he's town but I skim a lot lol. HTS was really pushing hard that you(LS) were town and switched to kush pretty easily from what I recall following the EoD before I replaced in. Another filter I'll have to look at. OK so I only have strong feelings on fidei (scummy) right now I will check out HTS and shining
So now Fidei is scummy. No follow-up on the Trfel "weirdness" yet. Then he says he will check out me and HtS but he never did.
On December 04 2015 10:36 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 10:34 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 10:32 Fecalfeast wrote:I think fidei's passive 'switch to kush' wasn't actually trying to start shenanigans but the way he's playing it off now makes it suspicious. Like he says here (in the nested quote) that he didn't think people would follow him ontoi that shitty lynch. If it was shitty... Why was he there? On December 04 2015 09:27 Fidei86 wrote:On December 04 2015 09:25 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 09:24 Fidei86 wrote:
Hey, I was surprised as everyone else that you all followed me into that shitty lynch. But technically Palmar was the first mover, I was just the first one to urge everyone to switch. Why did I scowl so hard after reading this post? That was weird maybe because it sort of reads like I (a) say you all followed me into the lynch and (b) it actually wasn't my fault. I'm sort of trying to have my cake and eat it. You're right. I wasn't the first person to have the idea, but I probably was the one that caused it. I was wrong and I'm sorry. Then this pandering to me when I call out the post, without actually voicing any concern. Fidei doesn't ask me to explain he knows he looks bad because he's thinking about his image. He even apologizes to me when I literally said nothing of value about his post. The shining, I haven't read his filter tbh but he's got a decent tone in his recent posts that makes me think he's town but I skim a lot lol. HTS was really pushing hard that you(LS) were town and switched to kush pretty easily from what I recall following the EoD before I replaced in. Another filter I'll have to look at. OK so I only have strong feelings on fidei (scummy) right now I will check out HTS and shining I think you had the same issues with Trfels d1, too. Did you definitely lean either way on him? I'm not sure if I ever put a read in thread but I had him as strong town until his abandonment of his NM/moose read. I'm currently weighing the town feels I got from him against the scummy feels I'm getting from him. It's kinda like he realizes that NM is going to be a much harder sell than MD because NM is playing. So was strong town, now ????????????????????
Now he's saying Trfel was a strong town until the weirdness stuff from him, now he's ??????
On December 05 2015 08:12 Fecalfeast wrote:
Ok am at work what's up boys I see hts still hasn't popped up? Guess she gave up?
Doesn't read mine or HtS filter. Decided HtS is scum giving up, no mention on me.
FML work is getting busy, I'll be back in a few. Chew on this for a bit
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On December 06 2015 09:52 Fecalfeast wrote:
so that's a town case or what? Have you played with me before?
No the difference between these posts and your town games is that your low effort and small posts still follow a train of thought and have conclusions. Here, you're just leaving things in the air after promising content and moving onto the next current topic.
And yes. I have. A bunch of times. You know that. I caught you as scum in Ippo, I made a game winning case in Student XVI that you sheeped. I don't always read you correctly but I dont always read you incorrectly, either. But the way I'm reading you now resonates more with you trying to emulate your town meta instead of actually just playing as town.
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I will say though that I misread what you said about bussing. When you mentioned NM, I thought you were saying he was bussing but I misunderstood. You were saying he had an accurate read on her and that therefore it was likely an early bus, just not from NM.
But with the part about disform, you're saying him being the outlier is too scummy to be scum then? I don't buy that argument anymore. That was the argument for both Breshke and Trfel last game and both turned out to be scum. And if disfo is scum, its his first scum game. I wouldn't expect him to play godly scum strats.
And for what NM said about disfo having HtS as null and voting his scumread in DYH over HtS, disfo in the games I've played with him has been very waffly and usually ends up following his TRs. Instead, he voted on DYH on his own and pushed him. Unflipped association is bad but FF did also try to get LS to hash out his DYH scumread, possibly trying to get him to move. And if disfo knew he had HtS as null at most and scummed DYH, he would know swapping to HtS to bus would make him look bad.
And disfo said he is consciously trying to change that waffling because it gets him scumread but he put out way more content last game and even though he waffled, he was towned quite a lot. I don't think his meta would change that quickly from one game to the next.
I still have filters to read and its night phase but that's where I'm at right now. I'm not sure how much more time I'll have to play before eon so I'm just putting my thoughts and reads out while I can
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On December 06 2015 10:13 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:06 NocturneMage wrote:
Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind.
In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night. Half the Sky is trying to WIFOM LightningStrike and she's really good at it. But..... Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote:
shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. Bold emphasis mine.
This is actually pretty good but I'm not sure it makes NM scum here. You're basically saying he's scumming LS but then talking to him about HtS like he's town, right?
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Also this is something for the next day phase in case I get shot tonight. There are 3 possible setups since Boxer flipped. Boxer vet, boxer Cop, boxer Vig.
There was no Vig shot n1 so unless Vig shoots tonight I'm pretty confident in saying we don't have a Vig and the setup is one of Cop/Boxer and vet/boxer. Obviously neither should claim in the night phase but it might be a good idea if we have a vet to claim next day phase and narrow down the lynch pool, IF YOURE UNDER SUSPICION. The RB flipped so the vet can't be NKd next night phase and it will help with poe after the NK. Obviously if you're shot tonight, you should also instantly claim.
If it is the 1 shot Cop setup, then don't say a damn thing unless you get a red check. If you get a green check, you should also claim it ONLY if they or you are in danger of being lynched, as the only setup we could have with GF is Cop/Vig(not possible because boxer flipped) and vet/boxer, in which case there is no Cop. So the cop check has a 100% accuracy.
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On December 06 2015 10:24 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:13 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 10:06 NocturneMage wrote:
Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind.
In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night. Half the Sky is trying to WIFOM LightningStrike and she's really good at it. But..... On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote:
shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. Bold emphasis mine. Wait you saying I mafia with HTS too? Man this is going to be a 72 hour of hell for me.....
Tell me what you think of disfo and FF?
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On December 06 2015 10:41 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:30 The Shining wrote:On December 06 2015 10:24 LightningStrike wrote:On December 06 2015 10:13 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 10:06 NocturneMage wrote:
Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind.
In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night. Half the Sky is trying to WIFOM LightningStrike and she's really good at it. But..... On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote:
shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. Bold emphasis mine. Wait you saying I mafia with HTS too? Man this is going to be a 72 hour of hell for me..... Tell me what you think of disfo and FF? Sigh I already gave it and it haven't changed for both of them. Both town. I just want FF to do more work now that we got some stuff to work with plus I don't want him to be totally lazy.
I know, I was just wondering if anything changed after the HtS flip and the following disfo and FF reaction posts, or lack thereof and if you looked into their interactions/reads with HtS.
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EPT
