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Dark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 05:17 GMT
#1704
Soooooo, my reason for townreading Trfel apparently is bad. It is association based on his interactions with HtS. I've been looking at his last scum game. If I was playing, I would never have picked up on anything odd between him and Breshke. So confused...

This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true.
##Unvote

My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:04 GMT
#1819
On December 09 2015 06:52 NocturneMage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2015 03:16 Rels wrote:
On December 09 2015 03:11 NocturneMage wrote:
On December 09 2015 03:04 Fidei86 wrote:
On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote:
On December 09 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:
On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote:
(Disclaimer: Currently drunk)

What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote?


High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive.


Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter.

Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia?

Xmas party at work.


It is absolutely possible that the team is HTS/DYH/Trfel (particularly with Trfel's hard defence of DYH and DYH looking into Trfel, albeit slightly delayed), and I said to Rels that the points on DYH can be sorted, but the evidence against Trfel is more definitive and alignment indicative than what is on DYH.

How likely is another question though and I had tried to make the argument that you always lynch the more likely mafia of the two. HTS was 1000% more likely than DYH yesterday, and Trfel is much more likely than DYH today. he is making a position change that he cannot possibly believe. the bussing argument has been beaten to death, rels needs to explain how the read on me isn't natural because I'm apparently too dumb to see it.

He mentioned that he kinda townread you; then he mentioned the NM busing theory makes some sense; then he drops it entirely.


continuing back end of filter. This is entirely true, now to check it in context.

two questions

(1) prioritisation of issues, not clear on how to pursue people - why trfel and fidei, disfo drop was fine because it was the same issue - they can't control what hts does and so they have to look at the interactions from both people.
(2) were some of these statements with thread sentiment, like to blend in?

checking context of thread. might even need to parse a scum game of his.

still really not sure this trumps trfel but damn me if I don't check shit first.


I'm here through deadline now. Ask me stuff. I'm reading filters atm.

Disfo, you should shelf the title of "best case of career" for when you write one with a correct conclusion.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:12 GMT
#1823
Much more comfortable with a Trfel lynch than a Fid one atm. Going to review Rels on Fid and NM on Trfel next.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:16 GMT
#1825
I haven't completely flipped on you. I am still quite suspicious. Unless shining gets in here and helps me, that doesn't matter at the moment. I said my case was weaker because I realized that I wasn't able to recognize that trfel could have had that much interaction with HtS and still be either alignment. He had interactions with Breshke last game that even knowing both of their alignments, I wouldn't have found it suspect. That means the back half of my reasoning on you is not as sound as it needed to be to push your lynch.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:26 GMT
#1831
Shining, why are you reading trfel as town?
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:27 GMT
#1833
Because I can't make sense of him.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:36 GMT
#1848
I don't like a Fid lynch. Trfel feels like a coinflip to me.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:39 GMT
#1852
I am in the same place on you NM. Your posting gives me the townie vibe. I just noted that it looked like HtS was soft defending Moosy, so I am open to the possibility of you bussing.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:42 GMT
#1860
Trfel, please drop all your reads with short explanations ASAP. If you are town, give us something to work from in case you get lynched.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:46 GMT
#1868
I popped up an hour before deadline, which is when I get off work.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 22:55 GMT
#1882
Screw it, I'm going to trust my initial instinct.

##Vote: Disformation

Shining, get on this wagon.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 08 2015 23:06 GMT
#1907
woot woot
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 10 2015 04:18 GMT
#2124
It has been a long ass day. I'm going to come back and actually read this tomorrow with non-exhausted eyes.

##Vote: Disfo

See you all tomorrow.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 11 2015 02:14 GMT
#2153
On December 11 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote:
DYH, I have a question for you.

Let me give you this hypothetical scenario.

You are town. Let's say disformation is lynched, and he flips town.

Who is likely to be scum in that situation and why?


Rels, definitely rels. I'm actually considering him being potentially more likely than disfo.

Trfel's death points his direction. He has push cases and suspicions almost exclusively on townies. He defends or doesn't interact with scum.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 11 2015 04:57 GMT
#2157
Look at night kills:

Damdred- Read as townie by majority of players, killed when he has few scumreads or pushes going.
Palmar- Difficult lynch, killed before he starts really solving the game
Trfel- Essentially confirmed town, no reads going into the day

The common thread for every kill has been someone who would be difficult to lynch but could also come at the game with a new perspective. This implies that scum is less threatened by the current sentiment of the thread and more worried about an unknown element coming in and screwing things up.

The person that fits this mentality the best atm is Rels. There is the added benefit that Trfel was also one of the most likely among us to suspect and push Rels.

It is a bit WIFOM, but adding the fact that disfo hammered ff to the fact that Shining is still with us, my money is on Rels flipping scum over disfo.

##Vote: Rels
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 11 2015 22:07 GMT
#2263
I'm here. Anything you all want me to clear up?
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 11 2015 22:11 GMT
#2267
I looked into Fid and Trfel. Fid felt like a bad lynch, Trfel felt like it could go either way. I still had my suspicion on Disfo from my earlier case, even though I didn't feel like the back half of it was as solid. Voted the person I thought was most likely to flip scum out of the possibilities, also thought Shining would join me and bring at least 1 other with him.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 11 2015 22:13 GMT
#2269
Start of d4 I hadn't caught up on the thread much or really looked at alternatives. I wanted to get something posted since I hadn't really played for a day and then I had my super long day where I couldn't play.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 11 2015 22:14 GMT
#2270
So I just stuck with where my head was at when I had last looked at the game.
Guts? Determination? $5?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
December 11 2015 22:20 GMT
#2278
On December 12 2015 07:17 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 12 2015 07:14 DoYouHas wrote:
So I just stuck with where my head was at when I had last looked at the game.

Your filter dive had him as town at EOD1 and during D2. It was only a HTS' filter analysis that put him as scum. You never filter dove him (when you said you would BTW) and just went for him.


Yes. I put off a full filter analysis of him. When I caught back up it looked like the lynch was going to be between Fid and Trfel so I put my energy there.
Guts? Determination? $5?
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