Canada11355 Posts
On December 04 2015 03:31 Trfel wrote:Why NocturneMage is MafiaWarning: this case will probably be extremely long. I tried a short case with only the essentials, but no one believed me. So I am trying this instead. Warning 2: this case will probably include a lot of meta. I did not want it to be that way. My first case included minimal meta. However, meta has been used to defend MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage, so I must first demonstrate why that meta defense is incorrect and then demonstrate why meta shows that NocturneMage is mafia. Warning 3: as careful as I try to be, there's probably at least one typo/formatting error somewhere. And I'm not going to proofread this as I would be here all day. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask. Note: I will be using MoosyDoosy's filters from the following three games to describe his town meta. I have only read one of the three games mentioned (Newbie Student Mafia XVII). This means that some of the meta reads used may have flaws, however I do not think this is the case. It is noteworthy that in Newbie Student Mafia XVII (the latest game), MoosyDoosy said that meta reads on him do not apply because he's played so many games on another site and his meta has changed. Newbie Student Mafia XVII is very recent, is the game that I'm familiar with, and strongly supports my point, so this cannot hurt the strength of my read (and may help it). Part 1: For those who say MoosyDoosy is unreadable + Show Spoiler +MoosyDoosy often plays very differently as town than most people do. And many people are not used to this. Saying that MoosyDoosy is unreadable as town is a very false statement, however. There have been other players in the past who have been sometimes considered "unreadable". Alakaslam and Chezinu are two examples of this, I might also consider LightningStrike (arguable). In truth, no one is unreadable. Everyone has tells on some level, reasoning that can be applied to their play on some level, because mafia knows that they are mafia and is trying to survive while town knows that they are town and is trying to catch scum/isn't playing to survive. In the past, people have demonstrated an acceptable ability to read Alakaslam, Chezinu, and LightningStrike. People have also demonstrated an ability to read MoosyDoosy, as shown by geript in Newbie Student Mafia XVII. Also, geript can be a very good player as town; this read on MoosyDoosy was not caused by luck. In this game, geript caught two of the three scum members with extreme confidence by the end of Night 1 (at least, pretty sure it was even earlier, but whatever). On November 18 2015 02:24 geript wrote:
Moosey 5.5/7--I think Moosy might be town. It's kinda impossible to tell, but I liked his Farah read. I don't think the read is good, but Moosy tends (as town) to be staunch on some really out there read that no one else sees. Yes, he does the same thing as scum. Yes, IMO he'll do anything he'd do as town as scum including acting like an ass. I don't have a super strong read on him that I can make a town case on him, but I feel about as strong about the read on him as I did in the last game (where I was tracker and was trying to decouple him and scumdred). The thing that really makes me think he's town isn't just his outburst around the Farah thing; more importantly it's how he comes back to it later on. The bounce back on was really, really towny I think. It's this, "I want to fuck people over and I don't want to fuck people over" dissonance that I don't think he can really fake as mafia. The read that geript used on MoosyDoosy here is somewhat specific to that game, however my point is that it can be done. It can't be approached the same way every game, but if you pay attention and look for things that you wouldn't look for from a more "normal" player, you can read MoosyDoosy on Day 1. Part 2: Essential facts about MoosyDoosy's play (meta) + Show Spoiler +1. MoosyDoosy hates playing as town Don't think that this should need to be explained, but here we go anyway. On November 17 2015 11:57 MoosyDoosy wrote:Because I hate town. Next quesiton, yes. I am assuming that he is referring to hatred of playing town as opposed to hatred of the town in this game. On October 16 2015 20:48 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I guess...
/in
I swear if I roll VT again tho... On November 30 2015 03:22 MoosyDoosy wrote:
pregame excuse: i said i'll play d1 but remember that i only play d1 as mafia but then again i like playing w/ damdred which might make me try but then i have bias towards damdred so if i'm town that's a negative spiral and btw if i do roll mafia idk if i'll actually play or not for mindgames but idk if i'll be able to muster the decision to play if i'm town but guys i've rolled town in every one of blazinghand's games so ofc i'll roll town but maybe this time it's time to break the chain... Ignoring the WIFOM in this post, it's pretty obvious that he hates playing town Day 1 and often will not do so. And hm, I think that's all of the meta that is required for this case to actually work. Which is great because it's adequately described in MoosyDoosy's pregame posts this very game. Part 3: An example of a similar read to the one that will follow + Show Spoiler +For this, I turn to one of the very best. Ver. If you're not familiar with Ver, he's one of the best mafia players of all time. He (I believe) was one of the mafia players who played at the start of TL Mafia, and he won nearly every game he played. He doesn't play any more, but for the past while, every so often he's hosted a game where he didn't know anyone's alignments, and let the cohost handle all of the alignment-relevant hosting like flips, night actions, etc. Ver analyzed the game, and at the end of the game, he shared his thoughts and how he went about catching the scum team. I believe he caught or basically caught the scum team by the end of Day 2 at the latest, generally sooner. Point being, he's an extremely good player and knows what he's doing. The following is from Ver's analysis of Assassination Mafia. I played in this game, so I have a decent idea of what I'm talking about. 1. Ver's scumread of Bill Murray + Show Spoiler +In this game, Bill Murray was mafia. He started by nuking (basically an in-thread vigilante shot that hits at the end of the cycle) Trfel, and then nuking marvellosity (the latter being a fake nuke) for questionable reasons. He later started playing the game more seriously and many people thought he was town (some reasons being that he was too scummy to be scum, he was extremely crazy, randomly nuking was a bad play from mafia that wouldn't be beneficial, etc). Ver wrote:
Right now Bill Murray is relaxed, he is not double checking his posts and make sure his stance is consistent with a townie ideology; he messed up. If you notice Bill Murray’s posting improves greatly over time, enough that he even made quite a few people believe he was innocent and even get pardoned. Remember all you need to do as town is to find one post or context where they have an action/words that cannot come from a townie frame, and you found a mafia. You do not need them to keep posting!! Bill Murray looked innocent the more he posted but it was irrelevant because his early posts and actions made him mafia. Case Closed. Next. There's some additional reasoning to this scum read, but it's not important to the point I'm trying to make; feel free to read it for yourself, it's a great read. The bold emphasis is my own, this is the idea that I'm trying to get across: if there is a post that cannot come from a town mindset/perspective, it makes the poster mafia. Note that this is often unrelated to whether the post is objectively good or bad ("objectively good" play is explained reads, explained changes in reads, everything makes sense, etc... "objectively bad" play is the opposite, however these things are both not so helpful for catching mafia). Ver said this to further explain the scum read: Ver wrote:
[Written postgame] For the people who defended Bill or were uncertain of him being mafia, I think this happened because they were focusing on the wrong things, like the possibility of him being an insane townie. But the idea that crazy people are more likely to be town (because of lack of fear) is not a rule, it is a heuristic. Thus it can be wrong. In order to confirm your heuristic usage, you need to bring in other factors. The best pairing with the “he wouldn’t do something crazy as mafia” is the congruence heuristic. Are his actions/words aligned? Does he keep his story straight? Is he coming from the same base point each post?
If you apply that to Bill, it should be quite obvious he fails the test hard. Several people noted that his posts were all over the place and not consistent at all. Just because he’s trying doesn’t mean anything. Thus the “insane townie” heuristic gets overruled because congruence is more important. The best mafia cases all come from when multiple quality heuristics converge. Some are more accurate than others, and in such cases where they conflict you have to go with the most precise ones first. Those are generally congruence and “he can only do/post that from a mafia mindset.” Both those apply to Bill. Bill Murray's story didn't match for two reasons. 1. He nuked Trfel for having a small filter and low activity. Right after that, he something like "Wow, I should have nuked Palmar. Guy has even less activity than Trfel." Then, he later nuked marvellosity. First, this is bad play because he didn't consider all of his options before using his nuke and the reason he used his nuke is awful (play so bad that it's a bit scummy, but doesn't make him scum). Second, he was suspicious enough of Trfel to nuke him, then he said that Palmar was even worse. But didn't nuke Palmar. And nuked marvellosity later. If he actually had two nukes, why did he not nuke Palmar, if that was more than enough suspicion to justify a nuke? This again doesn't completely make him mafia IMO, there's an extremely small chance that Bill Murray would be town with two nukes and is willing to fire off one of them at random and actually cares to save the second for the best moment. He's very scummy, but not confirmed scum. 2. After firing two nukes and playing poorly/insanely for the reasons described above, Bill Murray calmed down, apologized, and then started playing seriously. His reads and play were actually "objectively good" as described before. However, this is what actually makes him 100% mafia. Town can play badly, town can nuke people at random. Town can also play well and try to solve the game to the best of their ability. But town can NOT play badly and use their role to shoot people at random, nonsensically, and then stop and try to play seriously and solve the game. These two things do not line up and cannot possibly come from the same person. The contradiction makes Bill Murray 100% mafia. One final note, while I didn't say quite what Ver said, it's in the same spirit: Ver wrote:
even if you ignore my evidence, other people like Marv Sandro and a couple I forget bring up quite accurately that his motivations/posts are inconsistent over the course of the day 2. Ver's scumread of marvellosity (excerpt) + Show Spoiler +Marvellosity was the last catch for Ver. Here's some of his scumread on marvellosity: Ver wrote:
In my reassessment [on marvellosity] with my focus more narrowed, I went over the day 1 nuke shenanigans and I noticed something strange: I automatically assumed BM’s first nuke was fake and second was real since a) he knows town has anti nukes b) that is just common sense, but what if it wasn’t?
trfel certainly reacted to BM’s nuke, and Marv reacted to BM’s nuke on trfel. But why did Marv not care a bit about BM’s nuke on him? That is a gaping hole that extremely likely indicates mafia. If you see something that makes no sense from a town mindset, then the person is probably mafia. Part 4: Why MoosyDoosy's play shows that he was mafia (only the above meta) + Show Spoiler +1. Pregame, MoosyDoosy stated that he might not play Day 1 as town. He clearly showed that he wouldn't be happy about rolling town. Once the game started, MoosyDoosy still said that he wouldn't be happy about rolling town. + Show Spoiler +On November 28 2015 04:33 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2015 01:42 Damdred wrote:Shining is guilt tripping me  .... Oh temptaition Join and I'll play D1. On November 29 2015 05:56 MoosyDoosy wrote:
/confirm
Looks like I have to play D1 now. :/ On November 30 2015 03:22 MoosyDoosy wrote:
pregame excuse: i said i'll play d1 but remember that i only play d1 as mafia but then again i like playing w/ damdred which might make me try but then i have bias towards damdred so if i'm town that's a negative spiral and btw if i do roll mafia idk if i'll actually play or not for mindgames but idk if i'll be able to muster the decision to play if i'm town but guys i've rolled town in every one of blazinghand's games so ofc i'll roll town but maybe this time it's time to break the chain... On December 01 2015 08:14 MoosyDoosy wrote:
niiiice, I didn't even check my role PM yet lol. I'm actually scared to. Scared to check role pm -> scared of rolling town 2. MoosyDoosy claims to check his role pm and says that he rolled town, and is upset about it + Show Spoiler +On December 01 2015 08:37 MoosyDoosy wrote:
i just checked my pm. i'm vt tournaent attendee asd;flkjasdf 3. Through the rest of the game, MoosyDoosy shows no complaints about rolling town at all, and is very happy + Show Spoiler +Here is MoosyDoosy's filter. To be complete, I should quote every post after he checks his role pm, but that's stupid. Here are a few posts that best describe my point. On December 01 2015 08:40 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Rels speak more so i can soul read you as usual. This post was made three minutes after MoosyDoosy checked his role pm. Given how big of a deal he made over checking his role pm (took him 23 minutes between first mentioning it and checking his role pm), how much he hates playing town, and that he was upset when he claimed to have read his town role pm, he should still be upset three minutes later. Instead, he's happily talking about the game. On December 01 2015 08:43 MoosyDoosy wrote:
aight imma do this:
wait until rels speaks more. if he's mafia, we lynch him. if he's town, imma do the opposite of what he says as he gets everything wrong ofc. In case there's any doubt, three minutes later. On December 01 2015 08:57 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I think I like you two fighting. :D Plzerino continue~~ On December 02 2015 09:07 MoosyDoosy wrote:whew i did too much work there. will be back after a rest.  His last post of Day 1. Very interesting, he did a bunch of work (as he claims) and is happy? Not expected from a person who hates playing town. This very strongly suggests that MoosyDoosy is mafia. I cannot see these posts coming from the same perspective/mindset as MoosyDoosy showed pre-game and at the start of the game through reading his role pm, so the only option is that MoosyDoosy rolled mafia. 4. MoosyDoosy displays no desire to solve the game + Show Spoiler +I know, you're saying "but MoosyDoosy is useless as town, he never displays any desire to solve the game! This is NAI!" First, you're wrong. But second, remember this is the "minimal meta" section, and having no desire to solve the game is almost always mafia indicative. Here are all of MoosyDoosy's posts in the game that can possibly be seen as trying to solve the game. Being very nice here. + Show Spoiler +On December 01 2015 08:40 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Rels speak more so i can soul read you as usual. On December 01 2015 08:43 MoosyDoosy wrote:
aight imma do this:
wait until rels speaks more. if he's mafia, we lynch him. if he's town, imma do the opposite of what he says as he gets everything wrong ofc. On December 01 2015 08:57 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I think I like you two fighting. :D Plzerino continue~~ On December 01 2015 12:42 MoosyDoosy wrote:
o/ Hi Shining. What was with the burst of emotion earlier? Ya feeling alright there buddy? On December 01 2015 12:43 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 10:07 Trfel wrote:Life is so frustrating My communication skills appear to be miserable. I'll try to reread the thread later tonight. Damdred, apologies for using that type of read. Regardless of whether or not I am right, that creates stupid arguments and makes the game miserable. Thanks for being a bit more sensible than I am (regardless of alignment). Really? No one pointed this post out? hm...would like to see Palmar and Damdred's take on this. On December 01 2015 12:45 MoosyDoosy wrote:
hm...help me understand your Fidei read. Do you think the basis behind Fidei's reads are bad or the reads themselves? On December 01 2015 12:50 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 12:47 The Shining wrote:
It's not the first time you've played with me, nor the first time I've reacted that way. Why is it interesting to you? Do you find it indicative in any way? What do you think of what I said about fidei, or what palmar said about me, or revel about damdred? I find it interesting that you acted that way because A. I'm genuinely concerned for your mental state in Mafia as I know it's a high stress game. B. I do feel that you overreacted a bit with your sudden outburst and I disliked the way you try to use your meta to defend yourself. So. I just want to know your thoughts. What was the basis behind your Fidei read? On December 01 2015 12:54 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I really want Rels to speak up. Rels bby speak~~ On December 01 2015 13:05 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 13:01 Damdred wrote:
Hi ls
There are quite a few people who are giving me town feels currently. However I'll hold on to morning.
night i like this post because i feel the same way tbh On December 02 2015 09:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
hey rels bb are you okay? You seem a bit too angry. :c Talk to me if you need to vent a bit. What's with your angry attitude m8? On December 02 2015 09:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The way to find out disformation's alignment is to shade a ton of suspicion on him and a ton of votes then see what he does afterwards. On December 02 2015 09:05 MoosyDoosy wrote:hey damdy, who you looking to kill tonight? On December 02 2015 09:06 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Can someone go back and list the twooo sides right now? I get the impression there's the Rels camp and the anti Rels camp or something like that. Anyone who makes that list for me is a bb. These kind of statements are always very subjective, but I personally feel that MoosyDoosy does nothing at all to move the game forward and shows no desire to solve the game at all. The posts about Rels are completely useless. Excluding those, and taking only the best of MoosyDoosy's comments, along with why they show no desire to solve the game: On December 01 2015 12:43 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 10:07 Trfel wrote:Life is so frustrating My communication skills appear to be miserable. I'll try to reread the thread later tonight. Damdred, apologies for using that type of read. Regardless of whether or not I am right, that creates stupid arguments and makes the game miserable. Thanks for being a bit more sensible than I am (regardless of alignment). Really? No one pointed this post out? hm...would like to see Palmar and Damdred's take on this. Criticizing this post is a perfectly valid thing to do. MoosyDoosy doesn't have any push, however. There is no followup on anything else about me (Trfel). He doesn't come to a conclusion about me, he basically just says "here, yours!" and throws it at Damdred and Palmar. Basically making suspicion and letting someone else do the work while waiting in the corner and watching. On December 01 2015 12:50 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 12:47 The Shining wrote:
It's not the first time you've played with me, nor the first time I've reacted that way. Why is it interesting to you? Do you find it indicative in any way? What do you think of what I said about fidei, or what palmar said about me, or revel about damdred? I find it interesting that you acted that way because A. I'm genuinely concerned for your mental state in Mafia as I know it's a high stress game. B. I do feel that you overreacted a bit with your sudden outburst and I disliked the way you try to use your meta to defend yourself. So. I just want to know your thoughts. What was the basis behind your Fidei read? Suddenly MoosyDoosy is talking about The Shining. Okay. No conclusion about this either. On December 01 2015 13:05 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 13:01 Damdred wrote:
Hi ls
There are quite a few people who are giving me town feels currently. However I'll hold on to morning.
night i like this post because i feel the same way tbh So he has a lot of townreads and doesn't want to say them. They haven't been mentioned at all yet. Okay... On December 02 2015 09:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The way to find out disformation's alignment is to shade a ton of suspicion on him and a ton of votes then see what he does afterwards. What does MoosyDoosy think about disformation's alignment? I assume that he thinks disformation is town because of the "lots of townreads" post and the fact that he doesn't actually do the advice that he suggests here, however why doesn't he say that disformation is town and/or why he thinks so? On December 02 2015 09:05 MoosyDoosy wrote:hey damdy, who you looking to kill tonight? He said that he liked Damdred's earlier post, here he suggests that Damdred is scum. Either this is a joke (and therefore not solving the game) or he's not caring to explain or investigate his read at all (not solving the game). It's not that MoosyDoosy is not being very useful, it's that even for having just a few posts that can actually be maybe seen as doing something, they're all focused on different people. There's no followup, no conclusions at all, nothing that requires thinking, nothing that seems to be solving the game. You can read his filter for yourself. This also extremely strongly suggests that MoosyDoosy is mafia. Again, most meta arguments will be addressed later. If you're looking for mafia motivation as well, it's fairly obvious (this point is not as strong as the other points, so I won't spend a lot of time on it, but mafia motivation is important so this is here in principle). MoosyDoosy didn't try to solve the game (mafia doesn't need to solve the game). MoosyDoosy's activity died down once it seemed like people weren't going to lynch him (mafia only posts to survive). MoosyDoosy relied on WIFOM and meta to survive instead of scumhunting. Part 5: Why MoosyDoosy's meta suggests that he is mafia, not that he is town + Show Spoiler +I have previously explained why MoosyDoosy's play this game displays no desire to solve the game. Looking at three of his past games, the question is if he has a desire to solve the game as town. If he does, then MoosyDoosy is almost certainly mafia in this game; if he does not, then MoosyDoosy may be town in this game (the previous point about MoosyDoosy being scum for not trying to solve the game would be much weaker). Game 1: Newbie Student Mafia XVII+ Show Spoiler +For this game, I'll be taking only Day 1 quotes. Two reasons. First, MoosyDoosy only played Day 1 in the current game. Second, MoosyDoosy was nearly lynched on Day 1 in Newbie Student Mafia XVII, and his Day 2 play was much more involved and useful. On November 16 2015 15:53 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2015 15:50 ritoky wrote:On November 16 2015 15:46 MoosyDoosy wrote:On November 16 2015 15:42 ritoky wrote:
why does you playing on other sites render meta worthless exactly? I can give you links to games for reference if you desire, but my play has changed a ton than what it usually was. okay, with your new improved play; could you tell me who is mafia or town? It's not necessarily improved but: Farah disformation Shining geript This post came quite early in Day 1, later clarified to be his mafia list. Before this, MoosyDoosy voted for FarahBlackwing, and asked questions to disformation and The Shining. However, his reads are still almost entirely unexplained. I note that this post alone shows more desire to solve the game than MoosyDoosy's entire filter in this game. On November 17 2015 08:11 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2015 00:05 FarahBlackwing wrote:
I'm awake,
Anyway I probably will be mostly afk today so I'll try to be concise about my feelings.
1) I am super sure that Shining is town, based on meta and his posts give me a good feeling about them. They are pointed even if you disagree with what he is doing this is an excellent showing of his day one town play. Just a pity we won't see him again until wensday.
2) NocturneMage recent flurry of postings have giving me a good feeling, it felt like he was interacting with the thread as he was catching up instead of trying to be useless and lurking. He also instead of giving excuses is being proactive and trying to get thoughts out there. Good townlean, or at least not lynching today.
3) I'm not sure how people are so sure of VE so early? I probably don't get it because I never have played with him, but the town case on him seemed good and simplistic. So I suppose I will throw him into my town pile and then re-evaluate later.
4) I am not super confident in my eversince read, but I feel like she is town this game.
I also think ritoky is town, but i'm probably the least confident in this, and some of geripts postings have giving me good feelings but i'm not super sure about either. Posts like this make Farah Mafia. And NM is town. Instead of asking other people what they think about a post, he makes his own conclusion and pushes it. On November 17 2015 08:30 MoosyDoosy wrote:Yes I will explain. Farah is serious player and does not take gambits especially as noob as shown in previous game. This is extremely out of place. + Show Spoiler +On November 16 2015 05:04 FarahBlackwing wrote:
Hello. I think the proper use of our time is
##vote shining
Statistically it has to be time When people point it out and call bS on his "boring thread" excuse, he backs out of it immediately by saying he's "gathering reads" while whining at thread. + Show Spoiler +On November 16 2015 05:58 FarahBlackwing wrote:
##unvote
Ok I have my read now.
Why shouldn't I dos something earlto try to obtain any type of formative reads or understanding when everyone was just saying hi. Free town reads based on nothing. \o/ + Show Spoiler +On November 17 2015 00:05 FarahBlackwing wrote:
I'm awake,
Anyway I probably will be mostly afk today so I'll try to be concise about my feelings.
1) I am super sure that Shining is town, based on meta and his posts give me a good feeling about them. They are pointed even if you disagree with what he is doing this is an excellent showing of his day one town play. Just a pity we won't see him again until wensday.
2) NocturneMage recent flurry of postings have giving me a good feeling, it felt like he was interacting with the thread as he was catching up instead of trying to be useless and lurking. He also instead of giving excuses is being proactive and trying to get thoughts out there. Good townlean, or at least not lynching today.
3) I'm not sure how people are so sure of VE so early? I probably don't get it because I never have played with him, but the town case on him seemed good and simplistic. So I suppose I will throw him into my town pile and then re-evaluate later.
4) I am not super confident in my eversince read, but I feel like she is town this game.
I also think ritoky is town, but i'm probably the least confident in this, and some of geripts postings have giving me good feelings but i'm not super sure about either. And this post is very mechanical yes and has no emotion. Very much like Damdred yes. + Show Spoiler +On November 17 2015 08:23 FarahBlackwing wrote:
No Moos you are just an someone who refuses to play in any game I've signed up with you in. If you can't be assed to explain your one scum read to the thread when people are trying to evaluate you whats the point.
So frustrating On November 17 2015 08:41 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2015 08:38 Trfel wrote:
Someone please tell me if the meta MoosyDoosy applied to FarahBlackwing is true or not.
MoosyDoosy, did you see FarahBlackwing's explanation of her townread of The Shining (explained previously)? I liked that read a lot. Yes, that explanation was terrible. It was a wrongly applied meta read as there is differentiation between a**hole Shining and truly emotional Shining. It was free town read for no reason. She is Oprah of town reads. And saying that the read came from other people is excuse for read later on. This game clearly shows that MoosyDoosy is actually trying to solve the game and that he's invested in it. He's still martyring and still being obnoxious, but that doesn't stop him from pushing his reads and trying to solve the game. It's completely different from the play MoosyDoosy showed in this game. On November 17 2015 08:47 MoosyDoosy wrote:
shit I am becoming too invested into this game already. I will now go to prevent this. Goodbye and lynch me please. He acknowledge this himself. There are a bunch more quotes, you can see for yourself. I think that this is really obvious. Conclusion: MoosyDoosy was trying to solve the game. Game 2: Student Mafia XVI+ Show Spoiler +MoosyDoosy was lynched on Day 2 in this game. Therefore, I will attempt to separate his investment and desire to solve the game for Day 1 and Night 1-Day 2 to show the comparison to his filter this game and also the part that resulted in him getting lynched. On October 18 2015 06:15 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2015 06:14 boxerfred wrote:On October 18 2015 05:45 The Shining wrote:On October 18 2015 05:44 boxerfred wrote:
hey guys I'm here. Hi! Are you happy to be here? Actually no since I rolled VT just like I did in all of my last games ffs and I have moosy and gb spam up the thread although I said pregame that I'm on a limited schedule. actually no, I#m not happy. aight this post was pretty awkward tbh. On October 18 2015 06:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
- Awkwardly inserts VT claim
- Pretends to be angry
- Pretense of answering a question. On October 18 2015 06:20 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2015 06:15 FarahBlackwing wrote:
I disagree he has no logical reasoning in that point in the thread to make that sort of joke at all, it came out of no where to a point.
He wasn't promoted and townies should have no reason to claim scum by accident or not. And by your own logic or lack thereof if no mafia would ever claim mafia in the thread then all people who do so would be instantly read town.
So only dumb mafia wouldn't take advantage of that. To be completely serious, I do like to generate a little discussion in games. So far what conclusions have I drawn? Well, one is that boxerfred's post just now is super awkward and I don't really like it. Another is that you are pretty probably town for coming in with a townie mindset and without addressing the possibility of what Mafia would do. So you are a town read and boxerfred is a scum read. The other dude is a town lean and GB is a null right now. All of these posts came in the first 1 hour 20 minutes of the game. And they already show way more desire to solve the game than MoosyDoosy showed this game. When questioned, he pushed his suspicion of boxerfred. On October 18 2015 06:25 MoosyDoosy wrote:Really? Read it again. He could have just answered that he was annoyed at the spam but he feels the need to give an excuse of having no time as well as claiming VT all in one. It's very awkward to cram it into one post hm...? Also, while I realize that he normally does have real life obligations, it is still something to note that he feels it is necessary to claim that he won't be posting much. Then there's a townread on Rels, and then he continues to push boxerfred. On October 19 2015 01:55 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Again, boxerfred is really weird.
In his opening post he crammed a VT claim, a complaint, and a scum read.
In his next post, he tries to place blame on me for posting gif's when I didn't. He even tries to scum read me for it which is lol-worthy.
Just scum reading me here is also super surface level because he's not looking into how I operate and more about my outwards appearance.
His attempt to say he knows my meta is terrible because he was only in the game where I was Mafia and he's not making any effort to check my others game where I literally do the same thing as I did in that game.
I mean...What is there to like?
- Awkward first opening
- Says I started gif wars when I didn't even participate
- Scum reads me for gif's which I didn't even post
- Applies appearance reads
- Makes no attempt to support his supposed “meta” read
##unvote
##vote boxerfred As far as Day 1 goes, MoosyDoosy is clearly invested and trying to solve the game. Huge contrast to the current game. From this point I will start looking to see what changed, and what resulted in him getting lynched (using only his filter). In general, on Day 1 it's clear that MoosyDoosy cares about the lynch. His filter is centered on his biggest suspect, boxerfred (discussing and pushing his read), but he's also discussing townreads and other suspects. He ended up sheeping other people for the Day 1 lynch, but it's obvious that he was invested in the game. He didn't yell and scream, but you can tell that he cared despite not voting for his biggest suspect. If you don't believe me, compare it to his play in this game; it's still night and day. MoosyDoosy's sheeping (seems like he had his own reasons to think it was a good lynch though) led him to lynch scott31337, and he flipped town. On October 20 2015 05:02 MoosyDoosy wrote:
LoneMeow comes off looking gross from this but I don't know why he voted for scott and not Eversince in this situation unless they're scum buddies or if both scott and Eversince were town. On October 20 2015 05:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Or LoneMeow is town and really is clueless.
hm...Eversince, I'll have to hold you to your promise on participating in the following phases as you look really weird off of this. Still trying to solve the game. On October 20 2015 21:52 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I like the bf tunnel. I'd like to volunteer for D2 lynch willingly. I'm guessing that this is where people start wanting to lynch him... On October 22 2015 00:53 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Okay, I am back but had too much to catch up on so I just started from the night flip because that’s most interesting and did quick reads through filters.
Rels/sicklucker is a situation I don’t want to touch right now because it’s dumb and it’s NAI for both players. It’ll be a lot better to just find the other Mafia and figure out alignments from there. So taking them out of the surviving list, it’s this:
Vonthin
FarahBlackwing
Eversince
GlowingBear
boxerfred
FecalFeast
The Shining
- boxerfred is probably town for thinking that my shitty posts during N1 were good and giving me the credit for that when it came from someone else’s line of questioning (lol). He pulls reads out for some strange and/or misguided reasoning as town. So probs town.
- The Shining is acting like shitty Shining when he’s being tunneled. Although he should start posting more soon. But he’s probs town.
- Farah’s thoughts are logical and good. So he’s probs town.
If we take these people out, it leaves us with a pool of:
Vonthin
Eversince
GlowingBear
FecalFeast
- GlowingBear is hard to read, but his reaction to flip and afterwards shenanigans seems townie. But I’ll have to go check, so he’s a null.
- FecalFeast is hard to read until I look at him properly so he’s a null.
- Vonthin’s last posts is something I’ll have to look at. He was a scum lean before but I didn’t really look at his play since then so scum lean still.
- Eversince is reaaally different from her last game. In the last one she was obstinate and refused to listen to others and pursued her reads to no end. Seeing her here being waffly about her reads is not something that I normally see her do. So scum lean.
##Vote: Eversince Here's the post he makes after being gone for a while. He's definitely trying to solve the game. He ends up getting lynched, and to be honest I actually don't know why. His play didn't completely make sense, but that's not scum indicative and it seems really clear that he was trying to solve the game and was invested. Like, actually what the heck. I'm pretty sure that I was told that this was a game to look at to see one of MoosyDoosy's worst games? On October 23 2015 05:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
gg~~
was fairly obvious I'm town lmao. Without the context, I'm not sure if I can agree or disagree, but from MoosyDoosy's perspective this statement is 100% correct; he was trying to solve the game and putting in a lot of effort. Conclusion: this is extremely different from MoosyDoosy's play in this game. MoosyDoosy demonstrated a desire to solve the game throughout. Game 3: Student Mafia XV+ Show Spoiler +On October 11 2015 00:20 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Hi people.
I actually kind of agree with sentiment that we need a lot less spam so I'll work on it. I know I've been a problem in the past so hopefully I won't be terrible this game. It's quite a problem though as I've promised to post Part 2 of my analysis of Crime & Punishment but now I feel like I can't post it in this game. ):
Also, as a note, I realized that no emoji will show up if you do the reverse like I did above. It was actually pretty mind blowing when I found out as it works on a bunch of other sites and gets rid of the annoying little faces. Just a bit of a pet peeve.
Also, while I'm at it, I may as well state that I currently don't like either of ObviousOne or Stoicism_. ObviousOne for obvious reasons that he's giving excuses for not posting much and Stoicism_ for taking Obvious's sarcastic post a bit too personally. First post of the game has some actual reads. On October 11 2015 04:02 MoosyDoosy wrote:
As a note, Eversince actively prodding at things that move this early in the game makes me think he's town. On October 11 2015 04:21 MoosyDoosy wrote:It's a tone read. Everyone else entered by saying they were town and going to do something useful with their time. Gumdrop comes in all Kumbaya-like and happy, then says he wants to catch scum but disappears. On October 11 2015 04:53 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2015 04:48 KelsierSC wrote:On October 11 2015 04:47 MoosyDoosy wrote:
kSC, Vivax, and Kels all look town for now. so town i'm town twice 0pps, kSC, Vivax, and Onegu*. Sorry bb ): You're important to me but not that important. Mixture of tone and other things. kSC for being right in that there was some unnecessarily serious reading into some posts, Vivax for behaving like a dick, and Onegu for good tone read earlier that was in line with my own thoughts. Already, he's shown much more desire to solve the game than he showed in the current game. They are completely different, there is really no comparison. On October 11 2015 10:57 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Before I leave here's a list on where I'm at right now:
Town:
Eversince
kSC
-Celestial-
Onegu
Fecalfeast
Null:
Vivax
marvellosity
sicklucker
Scum:
Gumdrop
ObviousOne
Stoicism_
Inactive:
Shining On October 12 2015 01:39 MoosyDoosy wrote:okie since Onegu is a bum and won’t entertain me, I guess I’ll have to just explain my thought process on ObviousOne. 1. On face value it just looks like I was questioning kSC on something rather simple. I actually had suspicions on ObviousOne at that point which is why I was asking kSC while also obtaining a read on kSC. And to let you know, being involved and actively answering my questions made me read him as town. Also because he’s hella h0t but that’s not the point. 2. Then there’s this weird read on me. + Show Spoiler +On October 11 2015 10:08 ObviousOne wrote:Just gonna pop through four filters in order on the list. Onegu: liking how comfortable he seems with the thread. Can possibly agree with gumdrop lynch but willing to extend benefit of the doubt regarding gumdrop to see what is said. Would not lynch. Gumdrop: waiting for the return of the jedi. Could lynch. Eversince: I understand the confusion with vivax she has. Vivax has seemed to finally switched off his troll mode from speed reading the thread. Thinking that Vivax was intentionally trying to disrupt things by saying nothing is natural for someone not familiar with him. Let's see where Vivax goes from here. Would not lynch. TheShining: AWOL Okay, I guess I'll do a few more this is easy. Kelsiersc: Sheeping Onegu on the gumdrop thing entirely. Gumdrop would definitely be a convenient target for scum in this scenario and sheeping keeps any potential backlash off KSC. Also the Moosy feel for his other scum read is basically a reply to my post regarding activity. Seems picked out at random and the post overall has very little conviction. Potential lynch candidate. Celestial: voting the AWOL guy. Has a big paragraph by my name that could have just said NAI. [association based on unflipped players ahead  has KSC, the other guy I find scummy, in his leaning town list. Potential lynch candidate. Fecal: unremarkable at this moment other than the obvious vivax stuff. Probably not a lynch candidate. Marv: being marv, not ready to say anything just yet. Sicklucker: seems pretty happy with himself and situation. Spouting off. I like it. Not a lynch candidate. Stoicism: seemed pretty interested in me, really wanted to interact with me but hasn't shown up since our little scuffle. Seemed like he was trying to have a conversation about nothing with me. Potential lynch candidate. Moosy: actually some good feels, though potential helpful-townie-scummer vibe but not really likely. Not a lynch candidate.So there you go. Scumreads: KSC/Celestial and one of stoic/shining/gumdrop. If I were to vote right now it would be KSC so I will do just that. ##vote KelsierSCOkay that's what I got. Gonna watch some TV now. You're welcome. On face value, my posts and filter look decent-ish because it seems like I’m participating. But in reality I’m not doing much and am actively lurking by only sharing easy thoughts and not acting on much. I was a bit surprised that others didn’t pick up on this. + Show Spoiler +-Celestial-, but there are other reasons to townread her, and sicklucker Only way he didn’t pick up on it is if he’s not carefully reading the thread. 3. Then there’s also the fact that he’s concentrating on lynching the people that have already scum read him so far. Also heightened by the fact that I didn’t actually post my scum read on him when he posted his long list post which is why he probably didn’t scum read me lol. 4. If you actually care to look at my filter, you can see my line of thought concerning ObviousOne is actually there so don’t say I’m jumping on popular wagons for no reason. He has a 10 page filter. I'm at page 4. He didn't get lynched this game. I don't need to read any more, he's already shown that he's trying to solve the game and it's completely different play from this game. Reading the two games that I hadn't read yet actually blew me away. MoosyDoosy's play as town in these three games is completely different from his play in this game that I am not even sure if I can describe it. He's making reads and is trying to solve the game in all three of the above games, even if he goes about it in his own MoosyDoosy way. I've already described how there is none of that in this game. It's not an activity thing, either. MoosyDoosy was fairly active Day 1 in this game, he just chose to do nothing of value. He made comments about three people, but never posted any conclusions at all (even conclusions without reasons). Compare this to Student Mafia XVI, where he had a strong scum read 1 hour and 20 minutes into the game. Meta clearly shows that MoosyDoosy is mafia in this game. 6. NocturneMage's play thus far + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 10:57 NocturneMage wrote:
yo, at work, on mobile, finishing work late tonight, need to go to bed right after though and I have seminars all damn day tomorrow.
I've not read dick all or followed the game for d1 quite yet, but I'm VT and I'm ready to fuck up some dirty dirty scummers.
reading from end of cycle, I'm pretty suspicious of trfel again (I say again because he was scum the last game) but that's mainly because of how he played last game. of course he'd push moosydoosy, he's unreadable as fuck as either alignment. same desperation emotions when no one is listening to him. unless he does this as town. cool story bro, try harder because I'm not scum. Okay, so he's busy. Fine. He hasn't read anything, but he's really suspicious of me. The tone is extremely dismissive, and how is he this convinced that I'm scum if he hasn't actually read anything? Looking at the reasons, he mentions: - Pushing MoosyDoosy, an unreadable target
- Desperate emotions
- I'm pushing NocturneMage (presumably I'm scum because he's town)
First reason isn't mafia indicative at all because pushing an unreadable target is actually more difficult. Furthermore, NocturneMage just saw me fill the thread pushing the hardest targets in the game last game as mafia, so he knows that as mafia I don't just push the easiest targets. This is not a reason to scumread me. He accuses me of being scum for something without checking it, and accuses me of being scum for being wrong. Last game as town, NocturneMage was very methodical and reasonable, which is very different from this post. Other people have expressed concerns with NocturneMage's play (the rest of his posts are fairly scummy as well). I won't re-quote them. But there are two more things I will mention. NocturneMage's entire series of posts showed extreme confidence and kept saying that scum should be scared of him. On December 03 2015 10:57 NocturneMage wrote:
yo, at work, on mobile, finishing work late tonight, need to go to bed right after though and I have seminars all damn day tomorrow.
I've not read dick all or followed the game for d1 quite yet, but I'm VT and I'm ready to fuck up some dirty dirty scummers. On December 03 2015 11:30 NocturneMage wrote:back to work, end of cycle gives me a good starting point as to where to go when I can really sink in. scummers, I'm coming for you. be scared. and daniele, if you are mafia, I love you to death and that will never change, but as far as this game is concerned, consider yourself fucked. if you are town, you better start working with me (and maybe our joint town reads?) and we can take down the mafia together. got it? good.  Here are two examples. This doesn't line up at all with two things from NocturneMage's posts. 1. He said he hasn't read anything and is really busy. Then he's not ready to catch scum, he's not coming for scum, not for a considerable amount of time, anyway. This doesn't match. As Fecalfeast said, he's putting on a show. 2. Look at all of the main points (with regards to reads) that he said. - Trfel is really scummy
- Will easily/instantly know if Half the Sky is mafia and will lynch her
- Says that if Half the Sky lynched someone who was scumreading her, she is mafia
- LightningStrike is town for his deadline post
- Palmar's posts look bad for lynching kushm4sta (since he thinks LightningStrike is town, why is it mafia indicative for Palmar to lynch town!kushm4sta over town!LightningStrike....
This isn't the filter of someone who is ready to catch scum. This is an uninformed filter of someone pushing things without having read, without having spent time to think carefully about it. This doesn't match with NocturneMage's earlier claim. Note that this point is not as strong because it depends on NocturneMage's perception of his own play, not what his own play actually is like. There is a chance that NocturneMage considers this play to be extremely effective scumhunting, though I don't think this is the case because NocturneMage was very reasonable and capable as town last game. The first point stands regardless, though. In conclusion, NocturneMage is mafia. This is primarily shown through MoosyDoosy's play, as his play has seemingly conflicting mindsets that can only be explained by him being mafia, and he clearly did not try to solve the game. Furthermore, using meta makes the scumread of MoosyDoosy significantly stronger, as opposed to weakening it. NocturneMage's play is also very suspicious on its own, with an important mindset contradiction. I apologize that this post is so long (~19 pages of text, including quotes and code). I have already provided the essential version of this case, which is complete by itself. This explanation appears to be required for people to understand the case. Reading the entire case is not required, only the parts in question. But the conclusion is undeniable.
First off I'm not quite sure I understand the connection to Ver's reads and moose. The first seems to be like a general message of "if you find a mafia post, that person is mafia no matter how towny they look later" which isn't a bad sentiment but it technically ha nothing to do with moose. I don't even really understand what you're specifically referring to in the context of, to quote ver, "one post or context where they have an action/words that cannot come from a townie frame."
That being said, I really like your points about moose's mood and obvious knowledge of his own meta. Looking back I don't see the same moose that martyred and complained because he rolled town.
The points about his not trying to solve the game are ok but I don't think that can be used as the proof to ver's heuristic. It validates your meta read really well but I keep coming back to that part about ver. There's no real solid thing you present that cannot come from a townie frame.
I agree with your analysis of nocturnemage's early posts and am glad you expanded upon the early suspicions we had so I didn't have to.
I agree with the conclusion of this post.
I'll read the damdred stuff after flip i guess
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