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On December 14 2015 11:23 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2015 11:01 NocturneMage wrote:
Reading LS's filter....
sigh, I'm just going to trust what Trfel has said on him, that latter game, his game will start to improve. From page 12 onwards, I can see more provocative, or game-solving (maybe not earth shattering mind you) questions between 12-13.
Him sheeping Shining, probably strong townread this late in the game. If disformation flips green, it does make him look terrible. It's unlikely he'd try and do this as the final scummer I would think.
LS looks into me, my only thing with LS is that he suggests I come up with the bus plan because of my relationship with HTS, and not necessarily something where the scum QT is shared. between any two players (translation: he's taking something non-alignment indicative and making it so). The towncred argument is a credible one, but that prior argument if I understand it correctly is not particularly valid.
moving to the votes... I was referring to the fact that once you got the role pm and saw you replaced into scum slot and saw her in your team you would come up with that  Anyways since you are here can you answer DYH's question to you?
I am doing just that - deciding between disformation and you - in my series of posts.
I just prefer fleshing things out this way.
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I think what is sealing the deal here is the hesitancy with DYH (who again is at best a 50/50 case and my gut is saying he's town) and me. This I don't care for, from disformation.
But as shit I am with voting analysis, I think the day 3 motives are what indicate him to be the most likely scum.
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I've voted disformation. If we go to lylo though....well I'm going to pray this won't be the case.
It is well past 2am. I'm off to bed.
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I mean if we get to mylo with LS/Shining/DYH....deary me. I think it's gg because then I wouldn't be able to figure it out.
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disformation if you are town, you better come up with some solid reasoning (filters/voting/motives/etc) as to who you think is scum and why. Because if post 2498 holds true, town are in serious trouble.
good night.
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On December 14 2015 10:46 disformation wrote:
Oh Hai NM.
In case ppl are wondering: I will probably maybe try to post some useful stuff tomorrow afternoon.
It's 1400 or so where you are......we are still waiting. 
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On December 14 2015 23:49 disformation wrote:phone post: ah yes said afternoon yesterday but i was only able to get out of bed at 1300 and have a few rl things to take vare of  B4 mafia
sleeping in until 1300? I work nights sometimes but even I think that's insane, assuming you aren't sick.
In any case deal with RL so you can return here sooner instead of dithering around, surely you realise you are wearing a noose atm
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that bbcode was weird not sure what happened there.
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1930.
I clamour with anticipation.
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like you are just summarising.
What about that segment makes DYH scummy.
And the day 3 votes. What is DYH's motive to vote off the main wagons and why does it make him more scummy than you who needed the cred?
was there a disconnect with his reads? Like you really are not explaining well.
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Rels case for the 1000th time was 50/50 case at best. I had been telling Rels that all game.
It wasn't a scummy case (now we know obviously) but I isolated independent reasoning for his case on Dani and you cannot positively exclude the possibility that he could have come up with the case on HTS from town. You also cannot say its probable for him to bus the roleblocker over what you did (vanilla for equiv) and lining that up with the stances you took on Dani that's where the problem comes in.
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I don't like the WIFOM from him which was something I noted off his scum games but in his scum games I believe he was WIFOMing all game at least the read on Dani wasn't WIFOM he had legit ways to go. He did the WIFOM here in conjunction with other criteria.
FF a lot of people could have gone either way.
Also criticism of your cases isn't scummy. His arguments have not been well put as Shining's (assuming both are town). He's always been cautious of me possibly bussing but he's had to re-read my filter. There's nothing scum like coming from him other than low activity and in of itself is not alignment indicative.
I can't see 2428/2443/2444 and 2456 shows he's taking previous criteria and re-evaluating.
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On December 15 2015 04:22 The Shining wrote:
Also, the same logic for why LS can't be scum applies to DYH, vote logic-wise. Both were outlier voters. DYH made his vote on Disfo a couple of minutes before EoD, iirc. If either one is scum, they either hammer FF for town cred or vote to save him. Staying off those wagons is pretty town indicative, imo.
That's what I tried to explain two pages or whatever ago. That it's possible as scum but motives don't align.
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I think my vote is in a good place based on the most likely motives and evidence at hand.
If for some reason disformation flips green then I'm probably making between Shining and DYH in mylo assuming we are all alive, and probably looking at their relative pushes on a town disformation because scum clearly needed what will have been a mislynch and it has appeared quite easiest to get it.
But disformation will need to flip before we go this direction.
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From the games I've observed, scum seem to want to no-shoot to avoid giving information via NK. I was inferring the final scum holding their shot.
I don't know if that's optimal or not in general but it seems to have been done a bit lately? I've never been in mylo/lylo on TL as either alignment so...
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Anyhow, making dinner with my special someone.
I'll return in time for end of cycle.
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On December 15 2015 04:54 The Shining wrote:
Mafia Win Condition: The mafia wins when they outnumber or equal the remaining townies or nothing can prevent that from happening. Each night, mafia must use 1 kp. KP is factional.
I don't think they have a choice.
I see, so I stand corrected.
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Honestly I have nothing terribly useful to say atm. I already lent my thoughts as to what I would do or where I'd go if disformation were actually to flip green.
I know in the newbies I'd done, the scum do concede but wondering why someone hasn't already conceded I have been told in the past is generally WIFOM, so....at this point, I'll just wait until 2300 and then if he does flip green, try and get down what I can.
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I mean if disformation wants to do what Dani did and post wine/spirits/baby seals/whatever the fuck people do if he is the final mafia, that's fine too, but welp until then...
....then again Dani posted her scumclaim at (lol) 2259, meh he probably wouldn't.
....don't think can squeeze in a round of League so we wait...
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On December 15 2015 07:32 disformation wrote:
Nah. I'll flip green.
Are you pulling a Fecalfeast?
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EPT
