On December 04 2015 08:10 Koshi wrote:
and mylo is worth shit due to not voting for no lynch.

SL, Koshi confirmed
TT, Chrom top tier town or top tier mafia
OO, GB town or mafia
Scott, Onegu trash town or trash mafia

Scott voting for Snow to put him in the lead vs OO does not make OO more mafia, it just means that if it was town vs town mafia scott was more afraid that Snow could prove himself town and that OO was more lynchbait in the future. Ofc it also could be OO is mafia and scott tried to save him.

Dnu. OO is pretty null from all these votes.

That's a good point, but that fact that both FF and scott (or GB for that matter) picked Sno over OO does make it slightly more likely that OO is mafia, even though it's clearly possible in a world where OO is town.

In an oversimplified mathy way:
If scott mafia and OO town: 50% vote OO 50% vote Sno
If scott mafia and OO mafia: 100% vote OO 0% vote Sno
2 out of the 3 worlds where scott votes OO, OO is mafia -> 66%

Obviously it's not nearly that simple but the basic point is that the fact that 2 mafia (assuming scott) voted against him does make it more likely that he's mafia.

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 04 2015 00:04 GMT

#1702

The point does still stand that FF+scott+Onegu and FF+scott+OO are both very viable teams.

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 04 2015 00:19 GMT

#1706

Why do mafia prefer to keep OO over Sno though? I don't think it really seemed like Sno was planning to do more later at all.

It is pretty dirty math, no argument. The math was just to illustrate the point that all mafia voting against someone is still a point against them, even though it's possible that it was only coincidental.

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 04 2015 00:20 GMT

#1707

oh oops I said OO mafia -> 100% vote OO, should be 100% vote Sno ofc

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 04 2015 17:30 GMT

#1713

Onegu does a great job of making me really want to policy lynch him

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 04 2015 19:53 GMT

#1719

On December 05 2015 03:46 sicklucker wrote:
Like thisi s probably the mafia qt right now featuring scott and gb. you know were really screwed but on the plus side onegu is the most scummy and dumb person of all time we cant give up yet

LOL I could actually see that

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 05 2015 06:23 GMT

#1736

On December 05 2015 07:44 Tictock wrote:
I think I'm leaving my vote on OO.

I know there is very little chance Scott is actually town here, but my gut isn't terribly on board this lynch for some reason.

I really this this list was terrible and makes no sense, and OO has simply ignored my questions about it since everyone is focused on the scott lynch atm.

For refference:

Show nested quote +

I'd also like to know why OO feels so strongly about GB being town.

I know FF pushed OO on D1, but when the vote was important he voted to save OO. Besides this setup makes it pretty nice for mafia to bus, so I'm not sure that's as solid as SL made it out to be earlier.

Been rethinking the dumbtell thing too, and it's really not that hard of a move for mafia to make.

Idk maybe I'm just being silly, Scott is still a solid lynch here. This is just too easy today, and mafia should be scrambling to try and recover this game after last lynch and 2 night saves but.... nothin.

I agree with quite a lot of this post.

There's like a strange contradiction in attitude between how he posted bits of analysis and was seemingly somewhat interested in figuring out the game yesterday, but then votes a top townread all day. The second part is plausible from someone not playing but it's very very odd from someone who's appearing to care about the game. The mindset isn't consistent.

Scott has to be lynched though, and I think Onegu does too.

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 05 2015 21:29 GMT

#1747

Concede logic is silly, there's always 0 reason to concede as mafia no matter the situation.

Modkill thing is more tempting though, if he does a ninja vote we can always just kill him tomorrow and clearing up both scott/onegu at once would be nice. I'd be down if other people are.

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 05 2015 21:40 GMT

#1749

6 - 2 now

if no shenannies: 6 - 1 if scott mafia (2 more lynches) or 5 - 2 if scott town (MYLO)

5 - 1 if one town between them (two more lynches with Onegu already dead), 4 - 2 if two town (LYLO)

I think the chances of 2 town are basically nonexistant, so we basically just get a free extra kill on Onegu by doing this right?

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 05 2015 21:41 GMT

#1750

we don't have auto if scott is mafia here, we still have to pick 2/3 OO Onegu GB to lynch, unless you're saying you're super confident in one of them being town

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 05 2015 21:44 GMT

#1751

IF we lynch both Onegu and scott today though, then we do have auto because we can just lynch OO and GB

I don't see any reason not to do it, if scott doesn't ninja vote we just win and if he does we just lynch scott the next day (same as killing Onegu tomorrow)

it's not looking like there's enough people here right now though

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 05 2015 21:46 GMT

#1753

shenannies onto Onegu is better b/c policy I think

Chromatically

United States1700 Posts

December 05 2015 21:47 GMT

#1756

On December 06 2015 06:46 sicklucker wrote:
either way its bad to vote scott here. either he will get mod killed if hes town or he will claim mafia and last second vote which is fine because then were 100% sure on him tormorow

^

townies reading thread should switch to Onegu

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