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On September 17 2015 23:16 Vivax wrote:
TT why don't you read the entire thing and only pick out one part to justify why you don't scumread him for the entire case?
You mention the buddy-buddy thing a lot in that case actually.
There were some other points I liked, but that was the part I was most interested in getting a response back from BM about.
I'm trying to further my own read on him, while evaluating part of your case.
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Why not Dandel again Vivax?
I thought Rel's case on him was pretty good.
HtS also made a good post about Dandel... let me find it
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On September 17 2015 10:52 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On September 16 2015 18:10 Dandel Ion wrote:On September 16 2015 17:11 Tictock wrote:On September 16 2015 08:45 Dandel Ion wrote:
damdred is town What makes you so sure? dunno how good his meta shit is (but geript disagreed so it's probably solid) but he knows about the shine, which is more than i can say about anybody else this game. Show nested quote +On September 16 2015 18:18 Dandel Ion wrote:
not even trolling tho
absolutely 100% no idea why ppl keep saying that This is what I understand geript to have said - Show nested quote +On September 16 2015 10:49 geript wrote:
I don't get Damdred's case. But shining is in an odd middle ground between his town meta and scum meta. Show nested quote +On September 16 2015 12:27 geript wrote:On September 16 2015 11:57 Bill Murray wrote:
why? Mix of things. He's quoting stuff, but it's not how i remember him consciously quoting and leading off of it. What he says doesn't come off as "smart" to me when most of the things he says usually are pretty solid when he's town. But he's also more active than he has been as scum. So if your first post was serious why are you trusting the read when you don't know how good his meta shit is? Am I misunderstanding what you are trying to communicate (in the bolded)? Particularly when Shining had a very sharp (IMO) reaction to how Damdred scumread him on page 26. What do you make of that then? If you are being serious and I am understanding you correctly, then I have no idea how you are townreading Damdred.
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Ok I'm gunna take a shot break.
When I get back I need to:
Filter dive LS.
Decide on some grail action.
Filter dive and reread BM and Dandel
I'm ok going forward on the idea to check Damdred, and I think I'm ok lynching into BM or Dandel.
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Ok so checking back on LS.
I felt like the way LS defending himself early was decent, and most of the arguments against him were based in meta which he provided counter-examples to.
My issue when reading his filter though is that it is almost all him defending and answering questions. LS has very few reads, and only really pushes Damdred.
Maybe I missed some posts but all I got from his filter was that LS is scumreading Damdred > geript, and that he thinks Rayn is town, and likes BM.
The werid thing about his reads that Rels was pointing out is how he says this about geript before pushing Damdred.
On September 16 2015 03:15 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On September 16 2015 03:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So geript is your scumread?
Does it affect you at all i am telling you there is literally no way he is mafia in this game?
Also at the time you made thw post you got called out for, did you seriously think i am mafia for pushing a retarded role claim? Like i know you value my opinion, and i am not stupid. Did it not come to your mind to think a bit more about why i say what i do? I find this really hard to believe LS. Thats why i think you are mafia atm. Geript is my scumread. No it wont change unless he start doing some townie things. At the time I didn't read the OP very well so ofc I thought your role claim thing was stupid. Well I turned to be sounding like a idiot for not reading the OP very well >.> It now makes much more sense after rereading the OP for the Martyr claim plan you had setup.
then
On September 16 2015 03:50 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On September 16 2015 03:44 raynpelikoneet wrote:
LightningStrike do you have any other scumreads than geript? Damdred he only made like 2-3 posts and 1 is him saying I could be mafia without any explanation at all which is so unlike him at all when he's town. Rels could be town but Ticktock null I need to reread his filter when I get home. Rayn I think your town I was just being a jackass earlier regarding you I'm sorry what can I do to make up for it?
On September 17 2015 01:46 LightningStrike wrote:
I honestly just want to lynch Damdred for the reasons why I scumreading him. Also I think Rayn should be the Grail holder since he is almost certainly town. I prob wont be around EoD because of class ends at Eo so Damdrd is my vote for today's lynch.
##Deadline Vote: Damdred
##Holy Grail Vote: Raynpelikoneet
When pressured to read me LS only comes up with null like he has all game, and besides this post I can't find anytime that he's trying to read anyone else.
On September 16 2015 05:02 LightningStrike wrote:
Okay I just read Danel's filter and saw him claim Miller and I checked the op and there are no Miller's in the OP idk if he's trolling or mafia or both. Thoughts guys?
But LS ignored Rel's case about Dandel when he was around earlier.
It also seems pretty clear LS has no interest in the grail vote. Votes for rayn without bothering to consider anything about the grail (or that rayn is voting for geript to have it). Posts this
On September 17 2015 05:53 LightningStrike wrote:
I guess I can just be happy we got 25 hours till EoD so we still got plenty of time to still think about the Grail vote.
But then has no opinion about the grail when I asked him.
All in all I'm not liking what I see. Rayn is probably right here.
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Ehh I honestly can't be bothered to make a case for myself getting the grail. Rels has a solid read on me this game though.
I might be fine giving it to FF, but at some level he's doing the same thing Damdred did. However FF is at least showing he gives a few shits about this game.
I'm not doing a good job managing me time, I think I'll have to cast my votes during my meal break at work.
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I'm at work so can't post much.
Mostly just wanted to apologize for my EoD. Wasn't able to get a break before the day ended like I thought I would. Had to sneak away just to throw my vote on Dandel, and managed to check once more right before the day ended to make sure we were consolidated at least.
I wont be around for next EoD either, but I'll not leave things so last min this time.
I'm also a bit suprised by that NK but with it being pretty likely that we are 7/3 now that grail did matter a decent bit i suppose.
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Bill are you scum reading FF in general, or only in association with Damdred?
I know you had a scumlean on him early D1 but I thought you dropped it.
I'd also like to know what your current reads are on LS and myself.
iirc you were reading me scum and LS town right?
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On September 19 2015 07:24 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2015 07:13 Fecalfeast wrote:
So that was painful. 3 dead towns is pretty sad for day 2 You sure all 3 of them were town? Some thought Shining was scum tbh.
Did you think he was scum?
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Vote Count: ~24hrs before EoD
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet
The Shining (1): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (1): Rels
Damdred (5): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky
Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (1): geript
EoDVote Count
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
The Shining (0): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
Damdred (2): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky, Vivax
Bill Murray (0): Vivax
Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (0): geript, Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike
EoDVote Count: Cleaned up with colors!
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
Damdred (2): Bill Murray, Vivax
Holy Grail Vote
geript (7): raynpelikoneet, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
Vivax (4): Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (1): Fecalfeast
Ok this doesn't really tell us a whole lot, or at least I dont see much information from this, but maybe someone who is better with VCA stuff cna read more into it than I, also now we have a couple of VCs for D1 to look at.
The runaway train that grew on Dandel probably has all the mafia on it. Rayn has been pretty clearly town, Vivax is unCC'd and I'm leaning town on BM, so that's where I'm going to put my focus.
Damdred, LS and FF and an outside chance of Fidei are the people I'm thinking are most likely scum. I'm not really sure if I'm still scum reading Fidei, but I'm gunna leave him on the scummier side of null for now untill I get a chance to reread him. I know that he's playing in multiple games at once so that split of his focus might be affecting my read on him.
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Also, just gunna throw this out there.
Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.
Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.
So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.
That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.
So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation.
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FF, whats your opinion of BM right now?
I'm also more or less around all day if anyone has questions or wants to talk about stuff.
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On September 20 2015 04:29 LightningStrike wrote:
Me saying to James(Fidei) why I was voting Damdred over Geript and me telling Shining I would check Ticktock's scum game if he got any(I will check this after this post) and me responding to the joke about what happened in that game about BH.
This was posted about 2 hours ago.
If you are having trouble finding my only scum game (Holy Guardians) I might be willing to delve into the dark reaches of the Archives to dig it out for you.
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I actually have been enjoying Heroes of the Storm a lot lately.
I used to play LoL (years ago), but can't be bothered to learn long lists of items and stuff anymore.
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Gosh looks like another really slow day.
Damdred is the only person who hasn't posted since this phase started, which makes me wonder if he's waiting to see if anyone claims a check on him.
Assuming all 3 dead thus far are town then that's a 3/10 chance the Inq is dead or about a 70% chance that he is still alive with a green check on Damdred. Give or take some certainty if the Inq is like minded to myself or Fidei and holding a redcheck.
So ~70% chance Damdred is town despite him being one of the more scum read people this game. Is that enough to consider him confirmed town like rayn suggests?
I'd kinda like to hear Damdred's opinions on the game before fleshing out my own thoughts on him more... I think at best I can consider him null right now.
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On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.
Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.
Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.
So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.
That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.
So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation. I 100% disagree with this we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward 8v2 lynch 7v2 nightkill 6v2 lynch 5v2 nightkill4v2 (mylo) but if you do your scenario 8v2 lynch 7v2 soup 5v2 lynch 4v2 nightkill 3v2 (cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo) TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia.
So looking back at this, I noticed that there are some mistakes/weird stuff happening here.
In your 2nd list you have town mislynching, followed by a soup kill which makes no sense. Only way we get a 2nd claim today is if Inq claims a redcheck which would mean:
8v2
lynch 8v1
soup 6v1
mislynch 5v1
nightkill 4v1
ml 3v1
nk 2v1
LyLo
no soup
8v2
ml 7v2
nk 6v2
ml 5v2
nk 4v2
MyLo
Or the 7/3 situation
7v3
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
ml 4v2
nk 3v2
LyLo
And lastly 7/3 no soup
7v3
ml 6v3
nk 5v3
MyLo (ml 4v3 into nk 3v3)
That last one is scary actually.
Also I now see exactly what you mean BM. Redcheck should definitely be claimed.
It probably should have been claimed already, but if you listened to my lat post about this and held off claiming a redcheck now is the time. Otherwise assuming Damdred is town seems fairly reasonable.
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On September 20 2015 09:19 LightningStrike wrote:
Did anyone even read my long post about my Damdred throughout the game?
I did, reminded me of the filter dive I did of you before EoD.
On September 19 2015 07:56 LightningStrike wrote:
Btw if you got a red check Claim it ASAP but if you got a green check don't say anything about the green check!
No one has claimed a redcheck, so who else do you think is scum LS?
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On September 20 2015 20:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Tictock what happens if we lynch LS here and he is town? Your dumb post about the numbers makes no fucking sense at all.
I'm a little confused by this question.
My "numbers post" had nothing to do with LS, it was purely an attempt to make sure that a claim and soup kill today did not leave town in a shitty spot.
Why is my post dumb? There was 3 people who did the exact same type of post. What about mine in particular is dumb?
If LS is town and we lynch him then town is pretty SoL. Being 5/3 or at best 6/2 going into D3 is going to suck. Even worse if the crusader gets picked off and takes a townie with him.
I'm not completly sold on it just yet, but I'm thinking it's pretty likely LS is scum at this juncture. (Shoutout to Waffel-Boy who couldn't be in this game). Mostly my read on him is based on his lack of reads despite having a large filter. I also thought his position on Dandel was strange going into EoD. He asked at one point if we thought Dandel was just trolling or was mafia. Rels posted a mafia case on Dandel well before EoD (when LS was around, but he ignored/missed it) then a few hours before EoD LS comes back calling Dandel trolly town. Other than that "read" I've only seen LS give opinions on Geript, Damdred, Rayn, and when pushed rather un-opinionated reads on myself and Fidei.
@ BM
This reminded me you asked me a questions about LS's long post about his Damdred read. I thought it was a pretty useless post, tbh. All he really did was pull a bunch of quotes from his filter and state what each was a response to. Was made even more useless since Vivax had just been asking him for reads, but then he goes and rehashed an old read like he was proving something.
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On September 20 2015 21:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
we know for a fact dandel was town.
so rels, explain it to me like i am five, why does the Exorcist not shoot if we mislynch?
Because i can only think of one thing....
Oh shit I forgot about this role if we mislynch again today... I'm bad.
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On September 20 2015 21:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:
You too BM. Well at least you are not a cocky guy like TT bashing on people who are saying wrong things about the setup.
Who did I bash? When?
I question and try to think things through. I even asked if there was holes in my thinking.
Also...
at least you are not a cocky guy
Takes one to know one i guess.
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EPT
