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Newbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 136

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 13 2015 16:16 GMT
#2701
I did, it was right before Breshke claimed so you may have missed it.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 13 2015 16:17 GMT
#2702
On September 14 2015 01:16 scott31337 wrote:
I did, it was right before Breshke claimed so you may have missed it.

ah ok I'll go check it.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 13 2015 16:22 GMT
#2703
So it was a meta read? Fair enough I guess.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 13 2015 16:29 GMT
#2704
scott, thoughts on this?

On September 12 2015 21:50 Superbia wrote:
My problem at the moment is that both scott's and fidei's reads are logical fallacies. They read the "shitfight" as worthless and essentially both ignore boxerfred's town case on me without as much as a thought (like they literally do not refute it). To me this shows an adamant point of view coming in from n2. Let me ask you (scott+fidei) a question, have you ever asked yourself the question "what would town Superbia do during this day?"? No. Regardless of what I would do, you would be fine calling me mafia today:
I do something -> Superbia is struggling to get townread.
I do nothing -> Superbia has given up as mafia.

This is not how town should play. I am surprised by both that you are perfectly willing to call me mafia on n2 for no good reason (I'll explain below how mafia would act after GB's fake claim, and why this would potentially finger scott). Yet only scott has played a single game with me (iirc, and I was town). So you are both willing to hard call me mafia coming into n2 and not evaluate on d3 ("lolz this game is ez boiz"(. This could be town being ignorant and arrogant, but it's likely at least one of the two is mafia.

Let me explain to you how GB's claim influences mafia play:
When GB claims doctor at the end of d1. Mafia knows glowingbear dies the next day, and flips mafia. It is therefore incredibly likely that mafia will bus GB ASAP.

In fact, it makes it more likely that there was already a bus on GB (I'm actually leaning towards scott), or that slam was bussing GB (I have a townread on slam independent of his push on GB). Scott looks so fucking good after GB flips mafia, since he was on his dick since early d1 (so early that it reeks of TMI/bussing). In fact, GB even made an entire case on scott! (and granted, in GB's meta he has not made a case on his partner d1, but he has made a case on his partner when he was about to die, iirc). But I personally feel like the case was ill-timed (train was starting on GB).

Now, this is made all the more damning by the fact that scott seems absolutely fine to see this day play out with a lynch on me (fidei too, for that matter). Let me tell you this much: I'm unsure of breshke's alignment at this point, but if he flips green today or tomorrow, I know for a fact that there's at least one between fidei and scott (though this may remain true even if he flips red).

Honestly I don't believe we should kill scott today, but I think fidei is an excellent target.

tl;dr:
- Fidei never played with me (except voice).
- Fidei fine with not evaluating my play and being adamant on lynch on me for no good reason (should not have a good read on me).
- Fidei believes I am a strong player, if I am mafia my play would have been exceptionally weak (I would have bussed GB pre-flip, as any decent mafia player would do).
- Scott played with me once (I was town)
- Scott fine with not evaluating my play and being adamant on lynch on me for no good reason (should not have a good read on me).
- Distance between scott and GB does not mean scott is town.
- Mafia for sure bussed GB pre-flip.

"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 13 2015 17:19 GMT
#2705
On September 14 2015 01:29 MoosyDoosy wrote:
scott, thoughts on this?

Show nested quote +
On September 12 2015 21:50 Superbia wrote:
My problem at the moment is that both scott's and fidei's reads are logical fallacies. They read the "shitfight" as worthless and essentially both ignore boxerfred's town case on me without as much as a thought (like they literally do not refute it). To me this shows an adamant point of view coming in from n2. Let me ask you (scott+fidei) a question, have you ever asked yourself the question "what would town Superbia do during this day?"? No. Regardless of what I would do, you would be fine calling me mafia today:
I do something -> Superbia is struggling to get townread.
I do nothing -> Superbia has given up as mafia.

This is not how town should play. I am surprised by both that you are perfectly willing to call me mafia on n2 for no good reason (I'll explain below how mafia would act after GB's fake claim, and why this would potentially finger scott). Yet only scott has played a single game with me (iirc, and I was town). So you are both willing to hard call me mafia coming into n2 and not evaluate on d3 ("lolz this game is ez boiz"(. This could be town being ignorant and arrogant, but it's likely at least one of the two is mafia.

Let me explain to you how GB's claim influences mafia play:
When GB claims doctor at the end of d1. Mafia knows glowingbear dies the next day, and flips mafia. It is therefore incredibly likely that mafia will bus GB ASAP.

In fact, it makes it more likely that there was already a bus on GB (I'm actually leaning towards scott), or that slam was bussing GB (I have a townread on slam independent of his push on GB). Scott looks so fucking good after GB flips mafia, since he was on his dick since early d1 (so early that it reeks of TMI/bussing). In fact, GB even made an entire case on scott! (and granted, in GB's meta he has not made a case on his partner d1, but he has made a case on his partner when he was about to die, iirc). But I personally feel like the case was ill-timed (train was starting on GB).

Now, this is made all the more damning by the fact that scott seems absolutely fine to see this day play out with a lynch on me (fidei too, for that matter). Let me tell you this much: I'm unsure of breshke's alignment at this point, but if he flips green today or tomorrow, I know for a fact that there's at least one between fidei and scott (though this may remain true even if he flips red).

Honestly I don't believe we should kill scott today, but I think fidei is an excellent target.

tl;dr:
- Fidei never played with me (except voice).
- Fidei fine with not evaluating my play and being adamant on lynch on me for no good reason (should not have a good read on me).
- Fidei believes I am a strong player, if I am mafia my play would have been exceptionally weak (I would have bussed GB pre-flip, as any decent mafia player would do).
- Scott played with me once (I was town)
- Scott fine with not evaluating my play and being adamant on lynch on me for no good reason (should not have a good read on me).
- Distance between scott and GB does not mean scott is town.
- Mafia for sure bussed GB pre-flip.



+ Show Spoiler [Vote Count] +

On September 13 2015 07:44 scott31337 wrote:
Day 1 Votecount


GlowingBear (7): Alakaslam, scott31337, raynpelikoneet, Yamato77, Fidei86, CopCake, boxerfred
copcake (3): n00bking, moosydoosy, nocturnemage
n00bking (1): Superbia
Alakaslam (1): Breshke
scott310337 (1): GlowingBear

Not Voting (0):

Currently, GlowingBear is fixin' to be jettisoned out the gorram cargo bay with 7 votes in . Please do not forget to vote.

-Final Day 1-

Final Day 1 Votecount


n00bking (7): Superbia, Fidei86, raynpelikoneet, Yamato77, scott31337, GlowingBear, Alakaslam
copcake (2): moosydoosy, nocturnemage
GlowingBear (2): boxerfred, n00bking
Alakaslam (1): Breshke
scott31337 (1): CopCake

Not Voting (0):

Currently, n00bking was jettisoned out the gorram cargo bay with 7 votes.

-Final Day 2-

Day 2 Votecount


GlowingBear (9): raynpelikoneet, Fidei86, scott31337, Breshke, NocturneMage, Alakaslam, boxerfred, CopCake, Superbia
CopCake (1): MoosyDoosy
raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear

Not Voting (0):

In GlowingBear will be abandoned on the nearest moon with 9 votes. Please do not forget to vote.


-Final Day 3-

boxerfred (3): MoosyDoosy, NocturneMage, scott31337
Superbia (3): Breshke, Fidei86, Alakaslam
Fidei86 (1): Superbia
MoosyDoosy (1): boxerfred
scott31337 (1): CopCake

Not Informing (0):


So if what he says is true - Then Fidei, CopCake, or Slam is mafia bussing. Slam could've done the super phat bus from the beginning - I had a tinfoil about that a day ago, and changing up his play - It's not out of the realm.
I think Fidei is town.
Copcake? I'm honestly not sure - and this is vote #5 with 13 playing - Would they serious do this? I'm doubtful.

I think bussing is overthought of - in all my games played - it hasn't happened. There were two I obs'ed (There in the database) that rayn was mafia and bussed starting D1 and bussed his teammmates. He was alive d4/d5 and people caught on why he wasn't dead yet, and lost.
Damdred started bussing d2 his teammates- made it to LYLO with Yamato - and won...
Beyond those two it's pretty rare - and I've been called out every game I'm in that I bussed also, and it's never happened (and I was town in all those too) I think it's suboptimal unless absolutely necessary.

If anyone did, it was Slam - but that's still really tinfoil.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 13 2015 18:18 GMT
#2706
Cool. That's just about the conclusion that I came to. Which is why I find it strange that Superbia doesn't feel the need to look over CopCake again. I'm presuming he's going to look into Alakaslam though from what he's said at End of Day. Interested to hear your thoughts now Sup.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 13 2015 21:34 GMT
#2707
I think both slam and copcake are decent copchecks. The latter because most people have doubts about her alignment. I thought she was town most of the game, haven't re-evaluated her. Think there were/are better kills. Still think fidei is a decent kill. Slam too probably. EoD votes mean little because they were both on town. Don't know what slam was doing or thinking if he is town, however.
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 13 2015 21:35 GMT
#2708
Also if you think a mafia would do what I did at EoD you really really need to reconsider. Like I know it's tinfoil town to question everything, but this is as alignment indicative a situation as you would get outside of PR-shenanigans.
Minimal effort.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 13 2015 22:01 GMT
#2709
On September 14 2015 06:35 Superbia wrote:
Also if you think a mafia would do what I did at EoD you really really need to reconsider. Like I know it's tinfoil town to question everything, but this is as alignment indicative a situation as you would get outside of PR-shenanigans.

mmm...I'd still like answers though.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 13 2015 22:02 GMT
#2710
On what?
Minimal effort.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 13 2015 22:04 GMT
#2711
On September 14 2015 07:02 Superbia wrote:
On what?

Your thoughts. Why exactly you're not re-evaulating CopCake and where you stand right now.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 13 2015 22:05 GMT
#2712
On September 14 2015 07:04 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 07:02 Superbia wrote:
On what?

Your thoughts. Why exactly you're not re-evaulating CopCake and where you stand right now.


I said where I stand: I think fidei and slam are good to look into tomorrow. I've half re-evaluated copcake but I still think both of those are better targets lol.
Minimal effort.
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 13 2015 22:07 GMT
#2713
I don't know why you're so worried about telling the cop what to do.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 13 2015 22:09 GMT
#2714
On September 14 2015 07:05 Superbia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 07:04 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On September 14 2015 07:02 Superbia wrote:
On what?

Your thoughts. Why exactly you're not re-evaulating CopCake and where you stand right now.


I said where I stand: I think fidei and slam are good to look into tomorrow. I've half re-evaluated copcake but I still think both of those are better targets lol.

...I was asking about who you think are Mafia not what you want cop to do.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 13 2015 22:09 GMT
#2715
The only thing I'm worried about are green checks due to gf. z_z Red check or bust. Strings of green checks only give us info for non-association.
Minimal effort.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 13 2015 22:10 GMT
#2716
Who are your towns, who are your nulls, who do you think we pay special attention to next day phase. Standard stuff. Not what cop should do.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 13 2015 22:10 GMT
#2717
On September 14 2015 07:09 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 07:05 Superbia wrote:
On September 14 2015 07:04 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On September 14 2015 07:02 Superbia wrote:
On what?

Your thoughts. Why exactly you're not re-evaulating CopCake and where you stand right now.


I said where I stand: I think fidei and slam are good to look into tomorrow. I've half re-evaluated copcake but I still think both of those are better targets lol.

...I was asking about who you think are Mafia not what you want cop to do.


I'd ask cop to check people who I think are likely town at this point. /s
Minimal effort.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 13 2015 22:15 GMT
#2718
...I'll continue this line of questioning after End of Night.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 13 2015 22:18 GMT
#2719
Do whatever. We are both stubborn people.
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 13 2015 22:22 GMT
#2720
Oh yeah, my two mafia are fidei and slam. In case I die.
Minimal effort.
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