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On July 18 2015 10:36 MoosyDoosy wrote:
k we'll kill u then silentwarrior. Thanks for the information. <3
btw it's bad play to say you have "critical information" and not participate. So we're not terrible but your play was more abysmal than GhandiEAGLE's.
Your role claim is terrible too and there's a huge thread in TL Mafia that says role claiming is very bad. Should have waited until Day was almost over if you had to reveal that information.
You always need to consider timing and circumstances of the claim.
Plus this thread has been very slow. If he claimed and enough were afk he'd still get lynched.
I'm going to swap votes for now but will keep an eye on the thread.
Additionally TJH ninja voting would be justified if he had a red check. Plus scum are a man down already and a NK down already so it'd make no sense for him to trade himself in 1 for 1 if he were scum.
In the meantime it's not too early to start working on SW associations in the abscence of a counterclaim.
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That all said, SW has put in a lot of work (albeit not saying much) for a newbie scum assuming he flips scum. Damn.
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Everything TJ said lines up with exactly what I've been saying.
This oddly makes me want to lynch TJ even more. It all just feels too convenient... like I even suggested MD as a check N1.
Town is at an advantage, and if TJ is actually our Cop he's gone or at least RB'd from now on regardless. We still have our medic...
Lets look at a few possible situations for tomorrow. We have a 8/2 game atm.
Lynching TJ
Worst Case:
We lynch TJ today, he flips Cop. Mafia gets NK. 6/2 but we have a confirmed Scum... puts as at 5/1 next phase. We get MD confirmed here as well
Best Case:
We lynch TJ, flips red. Mafia gets Nk. Start off 7/1 tomorrow. No real new information, too much WIFOM.
Lynching SW
Worst Case:
We lynch SW, he flips Green. Mafia gets NK. 6/2 again with confirmed Scum.
Best Case:
Lynch SW, flips red. Mafia get NK. Again 7/1, however we have more info as town, MD confirmed and TJ confirmed if he survives the night.
Bleh, idk that is full of weird things that can happen with medic saves and I'm probably missing some stuff too. Honestly though we get more or less the same deal regardless of who we lynch today, though obviously it is preferable if we do in fact catch scum.
Honestly the only difference I see is in the potential saves by Medic but that comes down to so much WIFOM.
There seems to be more potential information provided to town via lynching SW if he is in fact mafia. So I guess that is what we go with.
My gut is telling me TJ is playing us though...
Anyone please feel free to comment on this.
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If any scummer is fake claiming the real DT claims. Straightforward.
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Knackered. To bed I go...
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Day 3 Vote Count
TJHuggins(2): silentwarrior, Fidei86
silentwarrior(5): MoosyDoosy, Half the Sky,Ticktock, TJHuggins, Noobking
Not Voting(3):,Grokken, WonnaPlay, scott31337
Reminder Voting is done here.
It is mandatory to vote. Not doing so will result in a warning a second non vote will result in a modkill and action taken against you in the Mafia ban thread.
Currently silentwarrior is set to be lynched with 6 votes.
Day 3 ends in
PLEASE REMEMBER THAT IT IS MANDATORY TO VOTE.
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On July 18 2015 12:13 Half the Sky wrote:
If any scummer is fake claiming the real DT claims. Straightforward.
Yea yea... I can way overcomplicate things.
The important thing here is that I might be getting a lot better drawing good conclusions from it 
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On July 18 2015 12:13 Half the Sky wrote:
If any scummer is fake claiming the real DT claims. Straightforward.
Alright. I am the real cop, TJH is fakeclaiming. I checked MD and TT in that order, both are town.
So right now we have:
TT and MD, confirmed town due to cop checks.
HtS, n00b, Fidei, almost certainly town due to day 1 actions. With MD being town, it's extremely unlikely that any of these are mafia.
SW, almost certainly town as well. If he is actually mafia, TJH's fake red check is pretty much suicide. I don't see how this makes sense from a mafias perspective. If there is no counterclaim, and mafia fails to nk/rb the cop, town autowins.
TJH, fakeclaiming, confirmed mafia.
That means the remaining mafia is either scott or WP. If TJH flips roleblocker I could check either of these the next night with medic protection.
So my suggestion is: We lynch TJH now. He flips mafia, which confirms, me, MD and TT as town. If he is the roleblocker, I check either scott or WP. If the check returns green we lynch the one I didn't check.
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And now things get even more interesting...
*Swaps vote back to TJ
On July 18 2015 13:49 Grokken wrote:
If he is the roleblocker, I check either scott or WP. If the check returns green we lynch the one I didn't check.
I had totally forgotten the possibility of catching the Mafia RB here which would basically make this game over.
TJ flips red, I bet Scott is the last mafia.
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On July 18 2015 07:28 Tictock wrote:
Yea, I'd shoot scott.
Between the 2 of them SW has actually engaged in the thread a little. Scott has only dropped in to make a post or two then buggered off, there is zero evidence of his reads evolving based on the game, where as SW actually put some effort into his large post about Ghandi and had pinged him out before that case.
Assuming the follow up question is why I am voting SW over scott...
There is no follow up question. The correct answer to the game was "no."
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On July 18 2015 10:23 TJHuggins wrote:
You guys are all terrible. I am the cop. I have a town check on MoosyDoosy and a mafia check on silentwarrior. it should have been obvious to everyone from the night that i am cop.
It's been obvious to me ever since you refused to share your "essential information" by the end of Night 2, that your use of the phrase "essential information" meant you intended to FAKE-claim Cop. But you should have made your fake-claim at the end of Night 2, instead of waiting until Day 3. The only way holding off on your fake-claim is better is if you manage to kill the Cop during Night 2. Then you pretend that your "essential information" had nothing to do with a blue role (even though it virtually has to. Which is why I said you "medium claimed" a blue role more than "soft claimed" one.) In all other scenarios, you were better off making the fake-claim earlier than you made it.
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I also want to point out that if we lynch TJH and he flips cop, you know for certain that I and SW are the last 2 mafia, and town wins. It's a win-win situation.
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On July 18 2015 12:28 Onegu wrote: Day 3 Vote Count TJHuggins(2): silentwarrior, Fidei86 silentwarrior(5): MoosyDoosy, Half the Sky,Ticktock, TJHuggins, Noobking Not Voting(3):,Grokken, WonnaPlay, scott31337
This vote count is wrong. I did not move my vote from TJHuggins to silentwarrior. You would have needed a forklift to get my vote off of TJHuggins.
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On July 18 2015 14:09 Grokken wrote:
I also want to point out that if we lynch TJH and he flips cop, you know for certain that I and SW are the last 2 mafia, and town wins. It's a win-win situation.
Yeah, don't worry, you're fine. We're not lynching you, we're lynching TJ. And he's not flipping Cop, he's flipped Red.
On page 33 I gave:
6 REASONS TO THINK GROKKEN IS TOWN
and
9 REASONS TO THINK TJHUGGINS IS SCUM
So having the two of you in a counterclaim situation couldn't be much simpler for me.
But yes, like you said, even if the scum team actually WERE to be you and silentwarrior, this play from you would still be suicide. You would have had silentwarrior make the counterclaim against TJ, instead of you doing it.
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On July 18 2015 11:18 Half the Sky wrote:
Additionally TJH ninja voting would be justified if he had a red check. Plus scum are a man down already and a NK down already so it'd make no sense for him to trade himself in 1 for 1 if he were scum.
It's better than trading himself off 1 for 0, which is what he appeared to be headed toward. If his fake claim gets even ONE mislynch before he goes down, instead of him just being the lynch today, that's at least a LITTLE improvement.
And even if the real Cop counterclaims and we pick the right one (as we are going to) it at least outs the Cop for them, so that if the remaining Mafia member is the roleblocker, the Cop will be nullified from now on.
I think it makes sense for TJ to go ahead and make this fake claim. And I think it's exactly what he had in mind, way back when he first made mention of his "essential information."
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Hey SCOTT: Were you roleblocked last night?
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On July 18 2015 14:24 n00bKing wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2015 11:18 Half the Sky wrote:
Additionally TJH ninja voting would be justified if he had a red check. Plus scum are a man down already and a NK down already so it'd make no sense for him to trade himself in 1 for 1 if he were scum. It's better than trading himself off 1 for 0, which is what he appeared to be headed toward. If his fake claim gets even ONE mislynch before he goes down, instead of him just being the lynch today, that's at least a LITTLE improvement. And even if the real Cop counterclaims and we pick the right one (as we are going to) it at least outs the Cop for them, so that if the remaining Mafia member is the roleblocker, the Cop will be nullified from now on. I think it makes sense for TJ to go ahead and make this fake claim. And I think it's exactly what he had in mind, way back when he first made mention of his "essential information."
Yeah this makes me think TJ is the goon and not the roleblocker.
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I guess it's funny now, to think about how I spent half of Night 2 trying to convince the Cop not to use his ability on Grokken.
: \
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WP, do you think scott is mafia?
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EPT
