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Newbie Student Mafia XII - Page 4

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 08:25 GMT
#355
I should probably finish my thoughts by saying that n00b was on Sulfurus from the start, so I think a bus is unlikely. I don't know whether Kelsier is a busser. His behaviour is definitely the most suspicious of all the people on Moosy - he had been wanting to lynch Silent and Wonna (I think, phone posting here). Still, he wasn't sold on the Moosy lynch, so it's not too big of a stretch.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 08:27 GMT
#356
EBWOP "the most suspicious of all the people on Sulfurus"
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 10:55 GMT
#358
Meh, two things:

1) I don't think it necessarily reads that way; and
2) I don't think we should place too much weight on what he said, since technically he shouldn't have said anything.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 12:37 GMT
#363
Has anyone ever been in a game with a successful D1 lynch? This is kind of new territory for me, I'm used to going straight through to LYLO with mislynches...
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 12:41 GMT
#366
@HTS My list is basically exactly the same as yours, which is encouraging. I'm thinking the same on TJH, but I haven't had time to properly filter dive yet. Was there anything in particular you wanted to flag up, so I could keep my eyes open for it?

For what it's worth, I agree that it's more likely than not that Moosy is town. The chance of both wagons being mafia d1 has to be pretty remote, given that there were plenty of policy lynches (NHM and Scott) that definitely could have gotten traction, but didn't.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 12:42 GMT
#367
On July 13 2015 21:40 Half the Sky wrote:
But Fidei it really does not happen often, just above a quarter of the time (the actual figure is in the database somewhere but it's something like that).

That's okay, I don't mind you carrying me in DOTA *and* in mafia :D
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 12:44 GMT
#368
On July 13 2015 21:39 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 13 2015 21:37 Fidei86 wrote:
Has anyone ever been in a game with a successful D1 lynch? This is kind of new territory for me, I'm used to going straight through to LYLO with mislynches...


Yes, twice, once as each alignment, though. Can you tie Sulfurus to anyone else, maybe? I guess that's what you are asking?

I was more wondering whether there were any specific things that people have noticed about d1 lynch games, which might be useful here..
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 13:07 GMT
#369
Also, I think this is probably worth saying - if there is a medic, they should 100% try and save HTS this evening. She is probably the most town-read person (maybe along side me), but given that she just nailed Sulfurus in one post, I definitely think she's towns biggest asset right now. She's definitely smarter than me, anyway
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 13:11 GMT
#372
On July 13 2015 22:10 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 13 2015 22:07 Fidei86 wrote:
Also, I think this is probably worth saying - if there is a medic, they should 100% try and save HTS this evening. She is probably the most town-read person (maybe along side me), but given that she just nailed Sulfurus in one post, I definitely think she's towns biggest asset right now. She's definitely smarter than me, anyway


Awwwww <3

I'm going to take the bullet for you, bodyguard style
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 13:46 GMT
#375
Ticktock *and* Scott again in the same game?

/sigh

... Kidding. Welcome TT!
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 14:06 GMT
#377
PS I'm at work atm so don't have time for any long posts, but the short story is that TT was scum in the first game I was in (Holy Guardians) but I tunnelled him and Scott (who was town) relentlessly after D2. TT basically carried the game for scum, who won on mislynching Scott.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 23:04 GMT
#418
On July 14 2015 07:54 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Surprised they actually went after Kelsier. At least it confirms my worry that he jumped on Sulfurus as scum to try and assure his own safety; I was just about to post about that, especially since I had a totally unjustifiable scum meta read on him.

By the way, TJH isn't scum to me. He was an early bird on the Sulfurus scum train. That won't be enough to make me think he's town, but it is enough to give me pause before lynching him Day 2. Not ready to jump on that train.


???

TJH actually said *nothing* about Sulfurus, except adding him at #2 to his 'scum list' out of nowhere, and then being angry we didn't lynch Moosy. He voted for Moosy. To say he was "an early bird on the Sulfurus Train" is just totally wrong.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 23:10 GMT
#421
I think that there is actually a fairly decent chance that Ghandi is scum here. Reasons:

1. His entire filter is filler and waffle. He defends Grokken, but then backtracks from giving a read.he promised to give his reads, then didn't.

2. He talks a bit about the difficulty of getting good reads in the first day, then says he wants to flush out lurkers but not vote for them.

3. He apologises for being inactive but then does nothing about it.

4. This is a bit of a stretch, but I think it makes most sense for a more experienced player to NK Kelsier. Assuming Mafia were scared off NKing HTS or n00b (both obvious medic saves), why go after Kelsier, unless you knew he was a strong player/knows he knows your meta.

5. The total lie he just told about TJH.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 23:13 GMT
#424
6. His case on Moosy just screams mislynch wagon. It's so massively unlikely that both d1 wagons were scum, I don't think it's worth entertaining, at least for now. Grokken's reasoning above is sound. Looking like TJH and Ghandi might be the scum team here.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 23:15 GMT
#426
On July 14 2015 08:12 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Filler and waffle is over, I've started making legit posts again. TJH wasn't a lie, I just misread the filter page. My inactivity is also clearly over.



Your first "legit" post is a total rehash of everything that has already been said on Moosy. And at the end you even say you don't even know if he's scum, you just want him out of the game?? I'm always down for policy lynching lurkers/people you don't want to take to Lylo early. But we now have a contested vote flip which STRONGLY indicates Moosy is town. Yes, he's clearly a destructive town, but town nonetheless.

I think you're Mafia.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 23:20 GMT
#427
7. You joke vote Kelsier early (NAI). But then you don't vote in the thread, and your excuse is that you thought you'd already voted (ie you thought your vote in the thread stood). Firstly, that's stupid and surely not realistic from a player who has ever played before (hello 11k posts). But secondly, and more importantly, your first vote WAS A JOKE VOTE!! You never pushed Kelsier or really did anything else all of D1. You clearly didn't actually think he was scum, yet you thought you'd left your vote on him and you were okay with that? Please.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 13 2015 23:23 GMT
#429
EBWOP

7. You joke vote Kelsier early (NAI) in the game thread. But then you don't vote in the voting thread, and your excuse is that you thought you'd already voted (ie you thought your vote in the game thread stood). Firstly, that's stupid and surely not realistic from a player who has ever played before (hello 11k posts). But secondly, and more importantly, your first vote WAS A JOKE VOTE!! You never pushed Kelsier or really did anything else all of D1. You clearly didn't actually think he was scum, yet you thought you'd left your vote on him and you were okay with that? Please.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 14 2015 05:44 GMT
#451
@TT I do wish you'd stop misrepresenting me in this thread. This isn't the first time. First you said I hadn't mentioned Sulfurus before I jumped on. That's true to a degree, but I had said before that I was skeptical of the Moosy lynch and thought that any of the lurkers were good options. Then you say I'm voting for Ghandi, but I'm not, I'm just pushing him because I think he's scum. But this is very early in the day, and typically I give the day a little more time to unfold before actually voting (I'm never sure whether it's optimal to wait to vote or not - thinking about it now it's probably better to get my vote out early).

##Vote: Ghandi
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 14 2015 06:20 GMT
#453
On July 14 2015 09:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 14 2015 09:04 Grokken wrote:
By the way Moosy, what happened to the post you were gonna make the last minute of night?

I decided not to do it since n00bKing was right. There was >1% chance I was gonna die. It's better for Mafia to keep me alive since I'll attract people who are tunneled like Ghandi while I'm not doing anything for town right now besides my initial trap. I still have my thoughts but I prefer to keep them to myself until I find a slip.


Just say what your thoughts are, for the love of Christ! All this crap you CONTINUE to spout is driving me up the wall. All of the most vocal town players have you as town now, but your continued refusal to actually participate meaningfully in the game makes you easy lynchbait later on. If you're town - which I think you are - then you are actively hindering us at this point. Please think about that, and then give us your reads and generally just buck the hell up.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
July 14 2015 07:27 GMT
#454
Okay here is where I am right now. I'm phone posting this so it won't be peppered with links or anything, but usually I'd be asleep right now (up early for work).

Town:
Half The Sky - She started the Sulfurus wagon that nobody else was on, when we were happily about to lynch Moosy. Also, from a meta perspective, I don't see a scum HTS bussing a noob team mate when there was absolutely no reason to do so.

Strong Town-lean:
N00b - Again, I don't see any reason for n00b to start pinging out a scum buddy this early, particularly not where the vote circumstances were so close. Unless the scum team includes Moosy, I don't see a world in which n00b is Mafia.

Town-lean:
Grokken, WonnaPlay, Silent - I think we're going to struggle on these three because English isn't the first language for at least two of them, and they're all being pretty quiet. That said, from their filters, I don't see any particularly strong reason to scum read any of them. Their posting has read naturally (other than Silent's atrocious early posts, which I already flagged). That said, the all really need to up their games, as they will make reasonable lynch-bait as the game moves forward.
Moosy - This guy is driving me nuts. His play makes no sense whatsoever, from any perspective. He constantly promises reads then does not deliver, and is generally utterly useless. However, I think the vote outcome at d1 is pretty compelling. Sulfurus was indifferent to his death, when if it was a bus I think he would go for the town cried and bus properly.

Scum lean:
TJH - HTS covered this already, and it's clear at least a fair few people agree. This biggest indictment on him is his randomly including Sulfurus on his scum list without explanation, then being so indignant not only about the vote counting, but also about the vote in general, even though we hit scum.
Scott - Scott is an absolutely worthy policy lynch right now. We've bought a day with out d1 lynch, and I refuse to take someone with Scott's filter forward towards LYLO. Not only is it atrociously short, but it's also devoid of any meaningful content at all. It has been four days, bro, and even the guy in Geneva (TT), the Swede and the Netherlander have been able to get their thoughts out.
NHM/TT - I was scum reading NHM for both general inactivity and his weird thread entry, voting for me and also referring to me as "this guy" when we'd been bantering just before game start. TT has also been meh this far, but I might leave it to HTS to give me a good read, since I tunnelled TT so hard the last game we played together.

Scum:
Ghandi - his last post was like a roller coaster. His town lead on me was totally rational because he is right, everyone else has him as neutral and I think me calling him out is towny (but then I'm biased, obviously). But then he goes on to say that TJH is a good lynch to figure out my alignment, which is laughable because 1. Everyone is town reading me and nobody is discussing my lynch, and 2. shouldn't we be lunching people because they're scummy? Lynching someone everyone has a scum read on to give you information about someone everyone has a town read on is just bizarre. Then he finishes by saying he doesn't even want to vote for his scum read, because there isn't a wagon on me yet. WTF?

At work now, but I'll keep up to speed through the day.
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